J – Certainly the exceptionally high number of postal votes looks suspicious. This is especially glaring when compared to the figure for Scotland with people in more cold and remote areas worried about getting to the polls, but only a modest increase in the mid winter demand for postal votes. Although some of the postal votes might have been used by student who were in the week of moving home from University this would have been just as true north of the border.
Look at my December 28, 2019 at 09:02 post and you will see some really whacky numbers. I was reviewing one of Craig’s pre Election post: “The Largest Vote Swings in British General Election History Censored Out By the BBC and Mainstream Media.” It compares highlighting of data from the last big Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) model YouGov did prior to the vote. These MRPs are the polls touted as deadly accurate, but You Gove always lurches to the right more than any other poling company and it was done before Boris’s final week of colossal blunders.
I would expect that the Tories had the most accurate data under wraps in an internal poll while relying on YouGov to cook the numbers to help them meet expectations on the day. Certainly there were Tories including Raab who seemed to know his seat was not in danger and all would be taken care of: he revealed as much on camera before catching his own blunder. Boris too should have expected a close call but, he was so cocky he didn’t even go to vote in Uxbridge.
After comparing the expected big swings in certain places as predicted by YouGov and the radically different results on Election night there were some numbers that really stood out:
Dudley North: an expected 4.9% shift to the Tory candidate, but it was over three times that a whopping 17% swing!
Wokingham: predicted a massive 20.35%.from Tory to LibDem, but Tory Redwood clung on with a swing of just 7%.
Grimsby: a predicted swing from Labour to Tory of 3.6% but, on Election Day it was over three times greater at 13%!
It took a 5% increase in turnout in remain backing Putney in London to achieve the solitary Labour gain of the 2019 General Election.
Esher and Walton: Raab was fighting an expected swing of 19.6% from Tory to Lib Dem but that loss was halved to 9%. This was also one of the areas where there was an admitted increase in turnout from 73.9% to a healthy 77.7%. I say “admitted” because overall the turnout was claimed to have been lower than in 2017 despite numerous pictures of young people waiting in exceptionally long lines to vote.
As I wrote in a previous post on the results, despite the cold and rain of winter, given the copious photographic evidence of unusually long lines of people waiting to cast their vote, perhaps the most incomprehensible piece of information presented on the House of Commons review of the results was this statement: “Turnout was 67.3%, down from 68.8% in 2017. The total registered electorate was 47.6 million, up from 46.8 million in 2017”.
Doubling the total number of people casting a postal vote since the last election two years ago looks suspicious enough. Some of the anticipated swings in voting intention were quite remarkable as were a few of the eventual swings that occurred on polling day. The big gaps between poling expectations and voting results are equally remarkable. The most suspicious thing in the stolen Scottish referendum result was the exceptionally high percentages of postal ballots returned: in places it was as high as 94 – 96 % which is unprecedented world record worthy! I don’t have this data yet.
One twitter comment highlighted another alarming fact about those who did not receive their vote in time again:
“About a third (32%) of overseas postal voters in Spain DID NOT get their ballots on time – this is the THIRD election in a row where MILLIONS of eligible voters have been denied a vote @ElectoralCommUK why aren’t you investigating voting irregularities exposing democratic fraud?”
For all of these unprecedented features to be present in this one election is not just a coincidence, it really stinks of foul play. There are far too many issues that do not make sense and taken in combination along with the claimed drop in turnout despite the long lines of people waiting to vote, I know we have been conned! That’s before you even ask me to swallow the BS about how zombie Brexit fanaticism managed to overcome any maternal instinct to protect kids from starving and the voter’s own basic self preservation.
If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it’s not a giraffe!
The BBC and all MSM are still desperately trying to ram the square peg into a round hole while confusing and distract us with the contrite Labour leadership candidates vying for the top job in our decimated opposition. It is not as if Labour can have any impact on the train wreck crash out Brexit the Tory majority will inflict on us if we fail to overturn this vote. The stakes could not be higher: we must keep gathering data and prepare to challenge the legitimacy of this election.