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“Everything we do before a pandemic will seem alarmist. Everything we do after will seem inadequate.” – Michael Leavitt
I highly recommend reading this article from the “KevinMD” Blog: “A COVID-19 coronavirus update from concerned physicians” Authors: Howard J. Luks, MD, Joel Topf, MD, Ethan J. Weiss, MD, Carrie Diulus, MD, Nancy Yen Shipley, MD, and Dr. Eric Levi. Posted on March 14, 2020, although it is from a group of American Physicians it has important UK and global significance.
The authors explain how: “Exponential growth does not take that long to get to those scary high numbers. Every six days, we delay the number of infections double. This YouTube video does a great job of explaining this.” As I stated previously: “UK policy of refusing to test symptomatic individuals and those with direct connection risk, including people returning from overseas, would seem to be in direct violation of the WHO mandatory reporting requirement for all Covid 19 cases.” Testing, testing, testing provides data that enables and informs accurate modelling, but despite warning from the WHO there has been no change of policy.
In the Article there is also a logical explanation of the difference between “Personal risk vs. systemic risk.” I had already started into the Social distancing measures from the beginning of March, driven initially by what I perceived as my potential personal impact on the “Systemic risk.” I had not seen the list from the article which I have reprinted below, but it is uncannily similar to my own early intervention measures.
I assessed two factors: Area risk and Personal health risk to best determine the total risk. Area risk is greater for London and high density cities especially those with universities filled with overseas students. Any area with a large academic community, business or affluent overseas travellers I would consider to be an increased risk area. In addition any outlying dormitory community with large numbers of regular commuters to London or a major city is likely to be an increased risk area.
Increased personal risk includes more than just the elderly as anyone with reduced immunity, cardiac issues, diabetes or reduced lung capacity and even smokers could be more severely affected by Covid 19. This goes beyond the risk such a person will pose to their own health by not taking precautions seriously as the demands of their treatment will put undue pressure on our already overstretched NHS. As it states in the article the demands of treating Covid 19 patients will limit capacity to care for other patients with urgent medical needs entirely unrelated to the virus, but just as important.
It is your personal duty to take all reasonable steps to avoid putting our NHS under unnecessary pressure so the article has a list that EVERYONE should try their best to adhere to: “Mitigation measures for COVID-19” I have taken the liberty of reprinting the list verbatim here:
• Support your schools’ decisions to close: Proactive school closings save more lives than reactive school closings. Your schools should close now … before infections are present. Closed schools do not mean playdates for children – this counteracts the social distancing the school closures are meant to create in the first place.
• 6 feet: The COVID-19 virus spreads through droplets. They can move 6 feet before gravity brings them to earth. Stay 6 feet away from people if you need to go outside.
• Meticulous hand washing: Wash thoroughly and wash often. Alcohol-based hand sanitizer works well if your hands are otherwise clean.
• Do not touch your face. This is hard. This is a learned skill: Practice often.
• Clean doorknobs, toilets, cellphones, countertops, refrigerator handles, and so on many times each day. The virus could live on certain surfaces for 4-72 hours.
• If you can work from home, work from home.
• No tournaments, no sports events, no soccer, baseball, dance, volleyball, softball, gymnastics, concerts, martial arts, etc. We don’t care how much they claim they will clean the equipment.
• Cancel vacation travel. We know you planned this for a long time. You will be saving many lives by doing so … perhaps someone you know.
• Cancel weddings/ bar/bat mitzvahs, birthday parties, and so on. Help other people live so they can celebrate future events too.
• If you are over 60 years old, you should stay home. You should only go out if there is a critical need.
• If you have parents/grandparents in a nursing home, you should consider moving them home for now.
• Do not congregate in a restaurant, bar, etc. Again, you will save the lives of people you will never meet.
• If you feel sick, stay home. It doesn’t matter if you don’t feel too sick. Going to work will put countless other people at risk of suffering or dying.
• Cancel all business travel. Your life and the lives of others are more important.
• Expect supply chain issues: Work with your doctor to try to get a three month supply of medication.
• Many grocery stores have order ahead options with either pick up or delivery. There are online grocery delivery services available in many areas. Wash your hands thoroughly after unpacking groceries.
The Tory Government strategy is reliant on “Herd Immunity:” a conscious decision to “Slaughter the Sheeple!” This is the Tories “Final Solution” for Social Care where the elderly and vulnerable who evade infection with Covid19 are left neglected and abandoned to die of starvation in the self-imposed isolation of their own homes. If we had a legitimate Government in power there would be an appropriate prioritization of the needs of ordinary citizens rather than a myopic focus on propping up the corporate elite. We must continue to demand a full investigation into the Rigged 2019 General Election that gifted power to this rogue, hard right, Tory Government; please visit our Forum.