Clark
You have not been following this carefully. The death rate was lower than the average for the last 5 years until about last bit of March and started to rise because the lockdown was introduced. Even before the effect of this lockdown were felt, people lost the will to live and started to die with covid-19 and not because of covid-19. In this way you can also have no increase excess mortality but increase in excess mortality specifically due to ennui.