Reply To: SARS cov2 and Covid 19

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SA, I read the headlines while I was shopping and saw the new rules. I am very concerned that R will rise above 1 and infections will start increasing again.

I agree that local authorities have been sidelined. I agree that curfew and food distribution would be highly effective, and they are desperately needed, but only in the areas of high infection density. It is a huge mistake to apply restrictions equally across the entire country; see this map. In high infection areas, and among some key workers, and especially among key workers in high infection areas, R probably never fell below 1. In those places and groups it will rise way above 1 now, under the new rules. The country could soon find itself with its entire key worker population incapacitated by covid-19, and new clusters spreading from around key worker populations.

Proper quarantine and segregation are also desperately needed. The stay-at-home rule made the problem manageable and prevented absolute catastrophe, but is in no way a solution.

My guess is that contact tracing is only practical in areas of low infection density.

We need widespread testing, and we need masks.

This is not complicated FFS. The government response is close to useless; they are clueless.