Apparently, the following are the estimates / projections that the government is using:
Hopefully I’ll get some better information tomorrow. But even from the government’s own hopelessly optimistic figures, 70% of infections are not detected, so I can’t see track-and-trace being practical.
Take a look at Figure 1 in the current latest release, comparing the bars for “25 May to 7 June” against “8 June to 21 June”. It looks as though infections are now increasing, but the commentary immediately above says:
– “When analysing data for the four most recent non-overlapping 14-day periods (Figure 1), these estimates suggest the percentage testing positive has clearly decreased over time since our first measurement on 26 April, and this downward trend has now flattened. The confidence intervals overlap with the previous two time periods. This suggests that the actual number of individuals testing positive in the period 8 June to 21 June could be higher or lower than in the two previous periods. We therefore do not at this point have evidence that the current trend is anything other than flat.”
…and that is so; the confidence intervals (the black I-shaped lines of varying height) do overlap considerably, so wait and see, but my guess is that the infection rate is rising.
Meanwhile, the WHO says ‘the worst is yet to come’ and the coronavirus pandemic is ‘speeding up’ because some countries aren’t taking it seriously enough: