Reply To: SARS cov2 and Covid 19

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Duck, December 10, 13:53, #63048:

“Excess death rates include those who died because of lockdown restrictions rather than covid – lack of access to routine medical care or emergency services, suicides, domestic violence, etc …”

The excess death rates are plotted as graphs over time. The excess deaths do not start and end with the restrictions. They follow the shape of the infection test results graphs, with a delay of about two weeks, and thus they fall as the restrictions continue, just as should be expected – restrictions reduce the infection rate, which reduces the death rate two weeks later. When restrictions are relaxed, infections and then deaths at least start falling more slowly, and usually they begin to rise, just as is happening now in the UK.

“How many? Nobody knows or is making any effort to find out. Why not?”

Well that’s not true, all sorts of people have been examining statistical discrepancies and trying to account for them or improve matters eg. the various figures for the UK. But the lack of panic and suspicion is because the various graphs are all much the same shape, confirming that the various statistical sources are all broadly consistent with covid-19 being the new killer.

“it is indisputable that different countries use different criteria to register covid-deaths, yet this factor is ignored when comparing how nations have fared.”

That’s actually why I like the following page; for each country the graph shapes are shown without any absolute numbers, thus removing such variations from the visualisation.

End Coronavirus

The message is, the steepness is the main thing to watch because it’s what we can control with social restrictions, whereas the absolute number can be misleading as it can increase very rapidly.