Reply To: SARS cov2 and Covid 19

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So let’s take a look at what Duck has done here by comparing the article about Northern Ireland against the 2018 Guardian article linked in supposed refutation.

Northern Ireland – “We are providing care in the car park”

Guardian article – “…waiting to enter an A&E unit to be assessed and treated”

Waiting versus treatment. Actually treating people in ambulances seems a far more desperate measure.

Northern Ireland – “A line of more than a dozen ambulances – still with engines on to keep the patients aboard warm – was filmed outside Antrim Area Hospital.”

Guardian article – “In all, 16,900 people […] were stuck in the backs of ambulances waiting to enter an A&E unit to be assessed and treated in the week from Christmas Day to New Year’s Eve. Of those, 4,700 – again the most in any week this winter – had to endure a delay of at least an hour”

So this was over an entire week, ie. 168 hours. There are 180 Type 1 A&E units in England; that’s 30,240 A&E hours. 16,900 minus 4,700 equals 12,200 who waited less than an hour, so at any given time we’d find an average of 12,200 divided by 30,240 equals 0.4 ambulances outside each A&E at maximum, if they’d all waited one instant less than an hour.

We can’t perform the above estimate for the people who waited more than an hour because the article doesn’t tell us how long they waited, but 12,200 is 2.6 times 4,700; they’d have had to have waited over two and a half hours each, on average, just to make another 0.4 ambulances.

Clearly the situation at Antrim hospital was well over ten times worse

And that’s over ten times worse than the worst week in England, according to the Guardian article.

Duck claimed – ‘The story offers no connection between “spike in Covid-19 cases” and “exited lockdown” but allows us to assume it.’

Duck could have gone looking for the covid-19 figures for Northern Ireland, but didn’t bother; they are here. You can see that suspected covid cases have risen from 92 on Dec 13 to 188 on Dec 16, just over doubling in three days.

Duck berates the article for lack of evidence but neglects to find relevant evidence himself. Worse, he makes no effort to compare what evidence he does present against the evidence he’s belittling. He describes the article as “a masterpiece of innuendo and misdirection”, alleging deliberate mendacity. I would have more justification in alleging psychological projection against Duck.