SARS cov2 and Covid 19


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  • #61979
    N_

    What SARS-CoV2 and lockdown dreams have people been having?

    (@Tatyana – any idea about this one? It might connect with Russian dream lore.)

    The other night I had a dream featuring a man wearing a black Venetian “plague doctor” mask over his face and a red turban-cum-fez get-up on his head. I associated his headgear with Sephardic Jewish priestly costume, namely that of the kohanim. He was trying to get a message across to the platform at a public meeting in Moscow. The crowd did NOT like him one bit. I am not sure what his message actually was, but it wasn’t going down well with people. It was something to do with the epidemic.

    Interpretations?

    #61992
    SA

    nothinguptop

    You ask “Has the economy been flattened enough yet?” as if the primary reason behind actions to overcome the virus is to harm the economy. To convince and to not be seen to be in LaLa land, with disjointed logic, it would be useful to argue why you think that a conspiracy to flatten the economy is good for anyone, let alone such disparate administartions as China, Korea US UK and so on.

    #61995
    ET

    A possibly encouraging study from UKIC/PHE that relates to Mike Yeadon’s T-cell mediated immunity claim.
    Cellular immunity to SARS-CoV-2 found at six months in non-hospitalised individuals:
    https://www.uk-cic.org/news/cellular-immunity-sars-cov-2-found-six-months-non-hospitalised-individuals
    (Please note, this paper is a pre-print reporting preliminary data that has not yet been peer-reviewed.)

    This has hit the media today. Whilst it is encouraging it should be noted that it is NOT definitive evidence of T-cell mediated immunity. Prof Moss, one of the authors has said:

    “I think this data is reassuring, potentially even encouraging, but it does not mean that people cannot get re-infected.”

    He added that large-scale population studies are needed to show how the antibody and cellular profiles can act together and protect people over time.

    “This cannot be taken as confirmation of an immunity passport. Absolutely cannot do that”

    Prof Eleanor Riley, Professor of Immunology and Infectious Disease, University of Edinburgh said immunity is a functional term that implies resistance to infection, and this she says, has not been directly shown in this study.

    “Determining whether these T cell responses are protective against reinfection would require either an experimental infection study (such studies are under active discussion) or a very large, long term study to assess the frequency of reinfection in people whose T cell responses have been measured.

    “Given the apparently very low incidence of reinfections at the current time, such a study would not currently be a high priority.”

    Cautious optimism is in order. I think Mike Yeadon is being overly optimistic in claiming studies demonstrating T-cell reactivity to Sars-Cov-2 is evidence of immunity. It might be but then again it might not and has yet to be proven. The 30% cross immunity from other corona viruses is even more optimistic.

    #62000
    nothinguptop

    SA

    Reread it and what I was replying to.
    Let me know if you still don’t understand the relevance.

    You’ll kick yourself when you realise, so best to avoid disjointed logic.
    I’m going to look up your conspiracy theory and wonder if there just might be something in it?

    #62013
    SA

    I will come back to you later. But meanwhile can I ask if you are our old friend Node? It would be nice to know.

    #62017
    SA

    nothinguptop
    I have not heard from you and will work on the assumption that you are Node, unless yo answer to the contrary.
    Yes I understand you were commenting on what Clark stated, but will leave it to him to address your comments to him.

    Whether there is solid protective and lasting immunity, is something that has not been demonstrated yet, but there are preliminary findings, such as the comment by E.T. above which are hopeful. As to effects on other organs, my belief is that it is minimal, the major effect being on the respiratory tract. Other effects are probably should be taken as complications of being seriously ill and nursed in ITU. Some immunological effects may also extend to other organs and some long term general unwellness ‘Long Covid’ may also ensue, but this is all under investigation. I have seen no evidence that it affects IQ or fertility.

    Now you make this statement:

    “If you believe for a single second that masks, pretend (meaningless)distancing, or healthy people locking themselves up and consequently making themselves more susceptible to each and every virus is a healthy option i would have to assume you were insane.”

    This statement has some truth but mixed with others that I do not agree with. There is evidence that face masks and distancing and isolation do have an effect on the spread of the virus. There is ample evidence simply by examining the effect that these measures had in suppressing the first wave. But I agree with you in so much that the isolation procedures were not properly done. Self isolating at home with your family when you have symptoms, and when testing was not widely available, meant that homes became breeding grounds for virus multiplication within families. Proper enforced isolation, as was done in China and elsewhere was more effective, and as a result the virus is suppressed in China and some other places, but not in Europe and US, because governments will not allow proper isolation, which also require facilities run by the state, which has never happened here.
    But then you make a truly odd statement

    “Has the economy been flattened enough yet?”

    Which is what I commented on. You are implying that that was the primary reason for the lockdown, flattening the economy, and that is odd.

    #62019
    nothinguptop

    No definatly not them or anyone else. The mods can confirm this.

    If you’re not seeing the connection in my previous comment, go back to the claims at the beginning of this fiasco and how long it would take to “flatten” the mythical curve.
    Then ask yourself how long it’s been and what has been flattened(or obliterated).
    Now read the comment that I replied to.

    [ Mod: ‘nothinguptop’ first posted as ‘nobodyhome’ in December 2019, once, and several times thereafter with the new moniker. There is no evidence to link the identity to ‘Node’. ]

    #62024
    nothinguptop

    Hi SA,

    Thanks for clarifying.
    As you say we seem to agree in part and there’s little that is settled yet, so any of us, no matter how much we’ve read, could end up with egg on our faces.

    I disagree that healthy people locking themselves up is sensible and although happy to make arrangements for those with valid worries I would not force it on anyone and there really isn’t evidence that it’s anything but destructive(economy/mental health/unhealthy environment).

    The one place I would say I’m confident is masks and I’d go as far as saying they perform the opposite of what is claimed(that’s before the psychological impacts are considered).

    As for the bit you can’t seem to accept.
    It was a comment on the main thing that’s been achieved(deliberate or overwise) and the fear mongering stupidity of what I was replying to.

    Anyway my main concern is the overall outcome and particularly what it’s doing to children, so a couple of links to show where my real concern lies(not the virus, it’s done nothing to demand it).

    https://t.co/kr41DcAolL?amp=1

    #62052
    SA

    nothinguptop
    I have composed a long reply, but here is a shortened version.

    The normal response to the virus and the pandemic:

    • The methods of dealing with a pandemic of infectious diseases have been established over the centuries. These include initially restricting intercountry and within country movements according to infected areas. If the risk is higher, closing of borders would be necessary.
    • imitation of close interaction between individuals, limitation of crowding in closed spaces and limiting close contact, limit handshakes and so on. The wearing of face masks is also helpful in reducing the incidence of infection, but the effect may be minimal but still useful.
    • A prompt testing and tracing to identify infected and potentially infectious individuals to isolate early and prevent the spread of disease.
    • These actions should be done reflexively.
    • Isolation of infected individuals is a public health safety issue and is not up to individuals to determine and implement. This is a core responsibility of public health organizations. It means also that the state should provide adequate facilities for caring for infected individuals and looking after their needs.
    • There are international conventions. The WHO declared a pandemic sometime in the first part of March, but each country then seems to have decided that they will do their own thing without any international coordination.
    • These measures which could extend to a national lockdown are meant to reduce the transmission level to make it manageable and eventually to contain or eliminate the virus. A long or repeated lockdown means failure of the initial policy and will make it more difficult, if not impossible, to deal with the pandemic.

    Sadly you cannot play around with this whilst mathematicians ascertain the exact IFR which is meaningless as an average value in an ongoing pandemic in a fast evolving situation and with so much variability in mortality rates in different subgroups. Moreover, the IFR does not take account of the considerable morbidity and the possible social and economic consequences of lots of people being sick, nor of the possible sequelae of the infection.

    I agree that there have been indirect consequences of the lockdown and just to limit the discussion to two: treatment of other conditions has suffered, and the mental health problems associated with lockdown. (Incidentally this also applies to the economic consequences also). Yes these are real and serious, but the remedies proposed are binary: either deal with covid-19 or deal with these other problems. No, the answer is that the first lockdown should have given us enough time to think this through. My personal opinion is that the extent of the pandemic is now such that it is too late to contain, but that does not mean easing the lockdown. It means finding innovative ways to dealing with these other problems within the constraints of the lockdown. This is where the incompetence of the present administration is showing most, it is reactively dealing with problems as they, or even after they arise. There are already some hospitals, I believe who have devised Covid and non-Covid streams. Similarly with child and youth mental health services, this is a chance to see why these problems have burst into the open. They are just exaggerations of a trend that has been ongoing because of the nature of austerity and cuts in public services dictated by the neoliberal capitalists policy of enforced austerity. There is no capitalist solution to this crisis, and no room for too much individualism, society must now understand that the only route to improvement is actually a socialist one.

    #62068
    nothinguptop

    Sorry SA, but I only got as far as this

    “The wearing of face masks is also helpful in reducing the incidence of infection”

    I’ve shown this to be a scientifically proven lie(first link in my last post provides enough links but I can supply more. It was accepted science by everyone until March/April this year. What changed?), so I hope you understand why that’s as far as I read.

    You asked questions and I answered, so please address the issue that my reply concerned and it is the most important one at this point(we can talk about the lack of science/history concerning healthy people doing the most unhealthy/economically destructive thing imaginable once we conclude the science of masks).

    I’ll repeat.

    There is and never has been any science that backs what you say.

    If you think otherwise supply links(not low confidence shit like the Lancet tried to get away with).

    Masks are scientifically proven to be detrimental to the wearer and a source for spread.
    You need to show otherwise with real science or accept that masks are no more than symbolism(history backs this up).

    Your avoidance worries me. Do you back healthy people wearing a portable, virus spreading, petri dish and worse still, depriving young people of the oxygen needed for their brains to develop fully, all for a macabre symbolism that has no basis in science?

    I expected more SA, but you seem you appear to live in the same fantasy world as the person my original comment was aimed at.
    Scientifically that’s somewhere lower than than this

    http://calteches.library.caltech.edu/51/2/CargoCult.htm

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by modbot.
    #62072
    SA

    nothinguptop

    Thank you for your answer. I missed your first link thinking it was part of the second more prominent link.
    The link is to a blog post, hardly a scientific resource to get important health related information. After reading a bit, I looked up Jim Meehan and found that he is a well known antivaxxer with a history of making many claims about vaccine safety and other issues. Moreover I believe he is an ophthalmologist with not much published research and certainly not in virology or infectious disease.
    Now I have to say that I stopped reading. I have had a long and unfruitful experience with an antivaxxer in another thread of this website. I will not therefore fall for this method of being bogged down in pseudoscience by people who do not publish their findings and arguments in scientifically approved peer reviewed journal.
    I will therefore decline to engage with you further and would just like to warn the modS of the possibility that you may be trying to spread misinformation.

    #62077
    nothinguptop

    SA

    You make an unfounded accusation and fail again to address the issue of masks.

    There is no scientific argument for healthy people to wear masks.
    I know this and you if as claimed read science know this.

    As I’ve asked before for you to link some of your “science” but you seem unable to do that, so I’d suggest you stop throwing baseless accusations around.

    You seem to have misled by mass media bullshit.
    Shame on you and your lack of science.

    #62078
    Steph

    And it is my hope that the moderators of this forum don’t take heed of your warning SA! I didn’t personally follow the links which nothinguptop provided, but this concept of suppressing what is labelled by someone as ‘misinformation’ is, in my view, not a good thing and never will be. But it is everywhere, not least the latest Facebook suppression of groups claiming the US election has been rigged. I have no idea if it has been rigged or not, and find Biden and Trump equally loathsome myself, albeit for different reasons, but trying to suppress the voices of those that passionately believe it has, is unhelpful and inflammatory. If you encounter a proponent of a an argument contrary to one’s own, surely one should set out a counter argument, not simply dismiss it because you don’t rate them as an individual. This is so common nowadays. The commenters on this site seem to me well able to sift information and form a conclusion without having it pre-judged so that it fits someone else’s definition of veracity. Lets not try and bring that here too!

    #62080
    SA

    I sort of agree with you that censorship is not a good thing. But if a forum is infiltrated with people with an agenda that is not what is stated it is a form of deception. And maybe that is what should be pointed and hope so that we can have open honest discussion. I have had a very long experience of this on a thread about vaccines, it is time consuming and it is a method of gaining insidious publicity.

    #62081
    SA

    “If you encounter a proponent of a an argument contrary to one’s own, surely one should set out a counter argument, not simply dismiss it because you don’t rate them as an individual.”

    All easy to say but when you are bombarded with something like what you did, a nearly two hours video to watch in order to see the argument, one has to decide whether to invest the time. Indications as to whether to invest the time or not start by looking at the source and its associations. I have no time and will not discuss with people who are anti-vaxxers, HIV and overt Covid-deniers and naturopaths and homeopaths. Similarly it is futile to discuss on the subject of religion because beliefs cannot be displaced with reason. When the start of a discussion is to discount anything to do with the establishment across the board, and to label mainstream science and medicine as part of a big conspiracy and to ignore public and international bodies, and only believe people who broadcast their ideas and findings on YouTube and personal blogs, and who are not willing to acknowledge the basis of scientific methods and do not acknowledge the peer review process then it really is not worth investing the time.

    #62086
    Steph

    Fair enough. I promise not to post a link to anything lengthy which I find interesting again! But surely participation in a discussion is voluntary? Why should you feel ‘bombarded’ by counter opinions, whatever their source? I almost daren’t ask, for risk of being accused of wasting your time again. It is as though there is one ‘Truth’ and you have appointed yourself staunchless guardian of it. You kindly took the time to respond constructively to the link I posted re. Mike Yeadon, conceding some points and refuting others. But then you subsequently commented you wouldn’t have bothered had you had prior knowledge of the guy interviewing him!
    I too have followed Craig’s blog for many years, occasionally posting if I have a period of inactivity. The really good thing about it is the different viewpoints that are made. I really don’t understand why you should look upon participation as some kind of exhausting duty which necessitates a sort of ‘filtering’ process to accomplish whatever it is you are trying to do.

    #62087
    Dredd

    Nothinguptop

    “There is no scientific argument for healthy people to wear masks.
    I know this and you if as claimed read science know this.”

    Oh, really? “Science”, you say, mmm? (While referencing a pseudoscientist, I see.) OK, then. Let’s have a quick look at some of the relevant science.

    “We recommend that public officials and governments strongly encourage the use of widespread face masks in public, including the use of appropriate regulation.”
    Howard et al (2020). Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review. Preprints.

    “The results of this review revealed that the use of masks is associated with a protective effect against respiratory infections in healthcare facilities, in long-term care facilities and at mass gatherings.”
    Olry de Labry-Lina et al. (2020). The use of masks to protect against respiratory infections: an umbrella review. Enfermedades Infecciosas y Microbiología Clínica.

    “… wearing simple homemade or surgical face masks in public is highly recommended if no particle filtrating respiratory mask is available. Firstly, because they protect against habitual contact of the face with the hands and thus serve as self-protection against contact infection. Secondly, because the flow resistance of the masks ensures that the air remains close to the head when breathing, speaking, singing, coughing and sneezing, thus protecting other people if they have sufficient distance from each other.”
    Kähler & Hain (2020). Fundamental protective mechanisms of face masks against droplet infections. Journal of Aerosol Science.

    “The results of the current study add to the growing body of literature supporting the use of face masks as a measure to contain the spread of SARS-CoV-2 by retaining potentially contagious droplets that can infect other people and/or contaminate surfaces. Based on the current evidence, face masks should therefore be considered a useful and low-cost device in addition to social distancing and hand hygiene during the postlockdown phase.”
    Landi et al. (2020). Should face masks be worn to contain the spread of COVID-19 in the postlockdown phase? Transactions of the Royal Society of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene.

    “Because asymptomatic carriers of COVID-19 produce respiratory droplets that can remain suspended in air for several hours, social distancing may not be a reliable physical barrier to transmission. During the COVID-19 pandemic, however, some governments were reluctant to mandate public mask use out of concern this would worsen shortages of respirators for healthcare workers. Cloth masks with a filtering effectiveness of 70-90% can be made from widely available materials, and are a better option than respirators for the public.”
    Salter (2020). Reinventing Cloth Masks in the Face of Pandemics. Risk Analysis.

    “Conclusion: cloth face masks are a preventive measure with moderate efficacy in preventing the dissemination of respiratory infections caused by particles with the same size or smaller than those of SARS-CoV-2. The type of fabric used, number of layers and frequency of washings influence the efficacy of the barrier against droplets.”
    Lima et al. (2020). Cloth face masks to prevent Covid-19 and other respiratory infections. Revista Latino-Americana de Enfermagem.

    Those are just a few quick examples: I could fill your screen with dozens more … if I had time. But that’s the profound imbalance here. It doesn’t take many minutes to lift a rumour from a dubious pseudoscientific website and regurgitate it in a forum. Checking the relevant science takes a great deal longer; and it’s hardly the province of amateurs.

    #62091
    Steph

    ‘Those are just a few quick examples:’ And that is all that is required as a response don’t you think? So much more useful than ‘Its all bollocks because Mickey Mouse said it’.

    #62092
    SA

    Steph
    You are quite right and I apologise for being so pompous. I was curious enough about Yeadon to look at what he said and I always find it good to challenge one’s own belief by reading something intelligent and certainly he made some sense, more so than this guy JIM Meehan that nothingontop quoted. Please do not feel that you have wasted my time, far from it.

    #62093
    Steph

    That is exceedingly gracious of you SA. Thank you.

    #62105
    Roger Gough

    Has this point been discussed here yet? If masks are at all valuable in slowing or halting the spread of any flu virus, why have the UK population never been directed to wear them before? . Surely that would have saved many lives and ‘helped save the NHS’. Why are masks not issued free to everyone by the NHS?

    #62108
    SA

    Because ‘flu is not as contagious as SARS cov2. There is also a certain amount of herd immunity and a vaccine given to the elderly. Mortality from ‘flu is also much lower.

    #62109
    SA

    Masks will slow the spread of all respiratory viruses and can also be used to reduce the incidence of flu and in fact are widely used in Japan and other Asian countries. Here is also an explanation of where they work.
    https://www.healthline.com/health/cold-flu/mask#guidelines

    #62110
    SA

    Meanwhile the government is taking this opportunity to reinstate the VAT payable on face masks. This was removed in May but is being reintroduced
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54690174

    #62117
    N_

    On government “guidance”, British supermarkets are restricting access to certain goods deemed “non-essential”. That’s got nothing to do with the virus. Staff explaining to customers who are so stupid as not to know how to wear a face mask that we breathe through three holes on our faces and not just through our mouths would reduce viral load by a much greater proportion than preventing customer access to the clothes section of the shop floor. So would encouraging people harder to wipe trolley handles with disinfectant. So would a public relations campaign explaining that masks made of cloth are a joke insofar as they are good at stopping dust but don’t stop so many bacteria or viruses, which are much smaller than dust particles. So would banning those hand-drying machines in public and customer toilets that blow germs all over the place. (Please don’t use them, folks. Just wiggle your hands in the air and they’ll dry in about 20 seconds.) What, then, is the real reason for the rope-offs in shops? What the government and the big business interests it serves are doing is nudging. They are expectation engineering. They are preparing the population for staying docile when the shortages come – actual real shortages: empty shelves, not stocked shelves that you can see but aren’t allowed to buy anything from.

    Am still thinking about the army deployment in Liverpool and the billeting of soldiers in the Pontins holiday camp. Even though the culture of the armed forces centres around unquestioning obedience to orders, there is still a nudging and public relations effort internally within the army and the other two services. It would be useful to know more about what is being told to these soldiers in Liverpool. Certainly they are getting a type of experience that is new in the domain of their relations with the home civilian population. A similar thing can be said about some of the staff in supermarkets and other shops.

    #62118
    N_

    Today is the fifth consecutive day with more than 1000 reported deaths “with Covid-19” in the US. The last time that happened was in August, three months ago.

    Hunker down for a tough winter.

    #62127
    SA

    N_
    The reason why non-essential shopping is cordoned off is that it is exactly the place that attracts those who do not use face masks properly and do not sanitise their trolley handles! Seriously though, it is to limit the exposure to virus by limiting the amount of time a shopper spends in the shop. But it is not either or as you seem to imply, it is all three.
    As to air hand dryers, I fully agree with you, what an efficient way to circulate droplets and even aerosols! Nobody seems to have cottoned on to this. They should be banned, but of course one aspiring ventilator manufacturer who makes masses of these SARS cov2 spreading machines, might object on the basis of free trade and discrimination against the spread and thereby reduction of profits both ways, lesser spread lesser use of said theoretical ventilators, lesser profit all round.
    The deployment of the army to deal with public health matters is appalling. Why not use tried and tested public health routes and build them up instead of privatising to inefficient dido-friends-of-the-tory-profit-making-catastrophe-fund? But of course we know the answer.

    #62142
    nothinguptop

    Dredd

    You start with this

    “Oh, really? “Science”, you say, mmm? (While referencing a pseudoscientist)”

    How about a comment on what was said in the article and all the links it provided?
    I can only assume you like SA are avoiding that for some reason.

    You then put a few selective quotes from selective articles. Did you see how many links where in the article your avoiding talking about?

    I picked one of your articles at random, read it and a few of it’s own links. You quoted from the first paragraph, but not from the start, which sets the tone slightly different from your selective quote don’t you think?

    “Many governments have instructed the population to wear simple mouth-and-nose covers or surgical face masks to protect themselves from droplet infection with the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in public. However, the basic protection mechanisms and benefits of these masks remain controversial”.

    Is that not a relevant piece of the article?

    How about this(again before what you quoted).

    “we provide visual evidence that typical household materials used by the population to make masks do not provide highly efficient protection against respirable particles and droplets with a diameter of 0.3–2 μm as they pass through the materials largely unfiltered.”

    Like you I’ve left some bits out. See how that works?

    The article contradicts itself multiple times and works from a starting point that already knows what answers it wants to find and diligently sets out it’s experiment to achieve that(just look at the cough photo. Who does that in the real world?).

    I was going to highlight bits, but why bother with conclusions like this

    “If these general rules are followed and all people use suitable particle-filtering respirators correctly, the transmission of viruses via droplets/aerosols can be effectively prevented. Otherwise, these types of masks would never have received certification, nor would they be a core component of the personal protective equipment in hospitals and other environments. Therefore, proper face masks can save lives while maintaining social life and securing the economy and the state.”

    That first sentence even if it was correct(it isn’t) is logistically impossible.

    Second sentence is a lie. As all the science before April 2020 agreed.
    A few they seem to have missed

    Ritter et al., in 1975
    Laslett and Sabin, in 1989(again in 2002)
    Tunevall’s 1991
    Skinner and Sutton in 2001
    Lahme et al., in 2001
    Figueiredo et al., in 2001

    Therefore the third sentence is a lie and pseudowhatitscalled.

    But they still don’t know when to quit

    “Second, some people are extremely bad at following rules, either because they do not want to or because they simply cannot. These people can become super spreaders”.

    Super spreaders?
    That’s science is it?

    So lots of words. Many that where contradictory and no mention of the massive harm they cause to the wearer, or the possibility that they spread more than protect.
    None of it taking into account real world scenarios, like this bit from your selective quote

    “Firstly, because they protect against habitual contact of the face with the hands and thus serve as self-protection against contact infection. Secondly, because the flow resistance of the masks ensures that the air remains close to the head ”

    Firstly, it’s well documented that the general public don’t know how to use correctly, constantly touch whilst on and reuse.
    Secondly, the air doesn’t do that in the real world.

    You end with the same sad condescension you started with

    “Those are just a few quick examples: I could fill your screen with dozens more”

    Before April 2020?

    Go for it. Anyone that looks will be able to beat you at least 10/1

    And you finish with

    ” It doesn’t take many minutes to lift a rumour from a dubious pseudoscientific website and regurgitate it in a forum. Checking the relevant science takes a great deal longer; and it’s hardly the province of amateurs”

    After the article I read, I have to say that’s very honest of you. Try reading more.

    Enough of the distractions now. I’m not interested in playing.
    As you’ll know(if you read why I posted that article,so maybe not) my concern is children(adults can follow any cult they like) and I have to say well done to parents of Broadgreen International School pupils for fighting back. If you don’t know what I’m talking about, go look at the letter they sent to parents on Friday(I believe).
    There’s something that should worry people.

    #62148
    SA

    We can all be bogged down with totally irrelevant discussions about the utility of facemasks. It probably is of lesser importance than social distancing and avoidance of large gatherings. Also the most crucial strategy in overcoming the pandemic, more important than face masks by far is testing and tracing and quarantine. All three have been done inadequately in countries with high mortality such as Britain and US some of the most advanced economies.

    I personally prefer to read a review like this one The 2019–2020 Novel Coronavirus (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2) Pandemic: A Joint American College of Academic International Medicine-World Academic Council of Emergency Medicine Multidisciplinary COVID-19 Working Group

    What started as a cluster of patients with a mysterious respiratory illness in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, was later determined to be coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The pathogen severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel Betacoronavirus, was subsequently isolated as the causative agent. SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted by respiratory droplets and fomites and presents clinically with fever, fatigue, myalgias, conjunctivitis, anosmia, dysgeusia, sore throat, nasal congestion, cough, dyspnea, nausea, vomiting, and/or diarrhea. In most critical cases, symptoms can escalate into acute respiratory distress syndrome accompanied by a runaway inflammatory cytokine response and multiorgan failure. As of this article’s publication date, COVID-19 has spread to approximately 200 countries and territories, with over 4.3 million infections and more than 290,000 deaths as it has escalated into a global pandemic. Public health concerns mount as the situation evolves with an increasing number of infection hotspots around the globe. New information about the virus is emerging just as rapidly. This has led to the prompt development of clinical patient risk stratification tools to aid in determining the need for testing, isolation, monitoring, ventilator support, and disposition. COVID-19 spread is rapid, including imported cases in travelers, cases among close contacts of known infected individuals, and community-acquired cases without a readily identifiable source of infection. Critical shortages of personal protective equipment and ventilators are compounding the stress on overburdened healthcare systems. The continued challenges of social distancing, containment, isolation, and surge capacity in already stressed hospitals, clinics, and emergency departments have led to a swell in technologically-assisted care delivery strategies, such as telemedicine and web-based triage. As the race to develop an effective vaccine intensifies, several clinical trials of antivirals and immune modulators are underway, though no reliable COVID-19-specific therapeutics (inclusive of some potentially effective single and multi-drug regimens) have been identified as of yet. With many nations and regions declaring a state of emergency, unprecedented quarantine, social distancing, and border closing efforts are underway. Implementation of social and physical isolation measures has caused sudden and profound economic hardship, with marked decreases in global trade and local small business activity alike, and full ramifications likely yet to be felt. Current state-of-science, mitigation strategies, possible therapies, ethical considerations for healthcare workers and policymakers, as well as lessons learned for this evolving global threat and the eventual return to a “new normal” are discussed in this article.

    Maybe there are not all the answers we seek but it has a lot of documentation of facts published, and through clinical practice, but also lessons learnt, from this Pandemic which showed how unprepared the world was to deal with the pandemic, despite the recent scares from SARS, MERS and the Ebola virus outbreaks.

    I would also like to read about some clin9cal developments such as disorders of the normal immunological and clotting responses to the virus, developments that give us more understanding of why the disease has such a widespectrum of severity in different settings. These are much more useful than these rather unrewarding discussions that are really distractions.

    #62213
    N_

    The World Health Organisation’s “Immunisation Agenda 2030”: “a global strategy to leave no-one behind”, “a world where everyone, everywhere, at every age…fully benefits from vaccines”. What subtle phrasing.

    So far one of the most striking features of the pandemic has been the level of uniformity of governments’ policies around the world.

    If any government ever wants to vaccinate me against my will, they’ll have to bring some damned big policemen…

    According to the Big Pharma-owned “WHO”, “immunization plays a key role in eliminating poverty”. Really? Does it now? Maybe the poverty we see in the world is an illusion that was conjured up by crazed “anti-vaxxers”? What else is needed to get out of poverty other than being vaccinated? Watching lots of adverts? Obeying all orders without question? Killing your own children maybe?

    Perhaps soon Google and Apple will turn smartphones off unless their “owners” have been vaccinated? (But since that would draw a line making it clear that all rebels are on one side of it and most sheep and bosses’ men are on the other, that might not be a bad thing.)

    You wonder how many people know what “immunisation” means. It means strengthening your immune system. Anyone who wants to advocate doing whatever the bosses tell us regarding what “the sirs” (is that the right term for medics?) get paid to want to inject us with should first find out what widely available foods and supplements really do tend to strengthen the immune system. Then if they write out their explanation 10 times for why they were so gutless as not to have bothered to find out about them already, we might be able to have a conversation.

    #62214
    N_

    From the WHO’s “IA2030” document: “<i>When vaccination is complementary to clean water, sanitation and hygiene, it prevents diarrhoeal diseases, which are the leading cause of child mortality in low-income countries.</i>”

    Yeah and when slimming pills are “complementary” to a calorie-controlled diet, i.e. to not stuffing your face, they “prevent” obesity too.

    #62229
    N_

    According to the Wikipedia outfit, the only countries in the world operating policies of forcible vaccination at the moment are some in continental Europe that were formerly run by fascists (Italy etc.) or Stalinists (Poland etc.), plus Brazil, Indonesia, Malta, and let’s not forget France.

    Let’s see how successful Dominic Cummings will be in Britain if he wraps forcible vaccination in the flags of “we love our children’s education” and “you should be we’re so grateful to the rich NHS”.

    In Britain 165000 people signed a petition against imposing restrictions on those who refuse a “Covid-19” vaccination. (Incidentally the government has all the signatories’ names now. Signing such a petition using your real name is extremely unwise if you are planning REALLY to resist forced vaccination in the REAL WORLD.)

    #62230
    SA

    N-
    Vaccination against cholera is not needed in Yemen, just a clean water supply and for the siege on one of the poorest countries in the world by one of the richest, with technical knowhow by some of the most advanced military countries, including bombing of desalination plants, could stop the epidemic there. But I am sure that instead donations will be given to start a vaccination programme against cholera is being planned by some NGO or other.

    #62239
    SA

    Government wants to jump on vaccine bandwagon as a distraction from their own failure on test and trace. This is typical of the way this has all been handled, not as a public health crisis but as a political and business opportunity.

    #62248
    Clark

    ‘So far one of the most striking features of the pandemic has been the level of uniformity of governments’ policies around the world.’

    Utterly untrue. In China, apartment doors were welded closed, people were forcibly taken into quarantine, and in some areas centralised food distribution was implemented. Now, people can’t enter public buildings or use public transport without a QR code. Many countries have done nothing. In others, restrictions were voluntary, or enforcement varied from none to overzealous in different areas. New Zealand closed its borders. Some African countries have used blood sample pooling to make the limited number of test kits go several times further. There is and has been a huge diversity of policy.

    ‘“immunization plays a key role in eliminating poverty”. Really? Does it now?’

    Yes, it does. For instance, it vastly reduces child mortality, which in turn encourages women to conceive less times. Still, get’em all scared of the medics “the sirs” and maybe they’ll turn away from contraception too, eh? Keep’em pregnant all the time, just like the Good Old Days?

    ‘According to the Big Pharma-owned “WHO”…’

    (sigh) Conspiracy theory again! Here’s the WHO website hosting a paper by Ioaniddis, darling of the “it’s only flu” anti-mask, anti-lockdown, antisocial, pro-infection crowd:

    https://www.who.int/bulletin/online_first/BLT.20.265892.pdf

    ‘If any government ever wants to vaccinate me against my will…’

    Grief N_, the government hasn’t even mentioned mandatory vaccination. It’s only the conspiracy theorists who ever mention it and boy do they mention it often!

    You’ve got MARXIST emblazoned across your daisy but I don’t think I’ve ever seen one bit of Marxist theory from you, just a load of conspiracy theory scaremongering. And Marx didn’t slander everyone with a job like you do; his economic theory teaches that people are motivated by self-interest, and thus capital and profit warp human behaviour. Are you trying to give Marxists a bad name?

    • This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by modbot.
    #62249
    Clark

    Steph: – ” I promise not to post a link to anything lengthy which I find interesting again!”

    I suggest that you summarise, or find a transcript. But even before that you should be suspicious when someone who knows how things are done in the scientific domain tries to influence public opinion directly, rather than presenting their idea to other scientists via the scientific literature, because this is the proper method by which the scientific consensus is forged. In the USA, the drug companies are permitted to advertise directly to the public; Yeadon is doing something similar.

    You should also learn to recognise the structure of conspiracy theory. It goes “Mr Big wants so-and-so, and therefore all the so-called experts are just falling into line. Look! They are all hiding or denying this special knowledge which I am revealing to you; their mendacity proves that what I’m saying is true. Anyone who contradicts me is either in on it or duped by the mainstream media“. Nonsense like this is all over the Internet; it varies from mild to extreme but it all has the same basic structure.

    #62250
    Clark

    Steph, here’s some conspiracy theory from nothinguptop:

    “I can only assume you like SA are avoiding that for some reason.”

    Hinting that Dredd and SA are part of the conspiracy.

    “not low confidence shit like the Lancet tried to get away with”

    Hinting that the Lancet is part of the conspiracy.

    “You’ll kick yourself when you realise”

    ie. “I’m cleverer than you”, the stance that conspiracy theorists always take. By their own definition, conspiracy theorists are better than mere sheeple, so if you the reader wish to rise above the dumb herd you’ll have to join them.

    “You seem to have misled by mass media bullshit”

    As I pointed out in my previous comment, it’s always “you’re a dupe of the mainstream media”.

    It’s also unpleasant aggressive trolling; this sort of stuff is part of why I haven’t commented for the last fortnight. Driving other commenters away aids its effectiveness.

    #62258
    Clark

    nothinguptop linked Jim Meehan’s blog, wherein Meehan recommended Cochrane Foundation and systematic reviews, preferably pre-2020, so…

    Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses

    Cochrane Systematic Review – Intervention Version published: 06 July 2011

    https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub4/full

    Nine case‐control studies suggested implementing transmission barriers, isolation and hygienic measures are effective at containing respiratory virus epidemics. Surgical masks or N95 respirators were the most consistent and comprehensive supportive measures. N95 respirators were non‐inferior to simple surgical masks but more expensive, uncomfortable and irritating to skin.

    – Implementing barriers to transmission, such as isolation, and hygienic measures (wearing masks, gloves and gowns) can be effective in containing respiratory virus epidemics or in hospital wards.

    simple mask‐wearing was highly effective […] (Analysis 1.3), based on seven studies (Chen 2009; Lau 2004a; Liu 2009; Nishiura 2005; Seto 2003; Wu 2004; Yin 2004)

    Many claims Meehan makes are contradicted by the very sources he cites. The argument he promotes is political, “the politicians are trying to scare you”, but he presents no evidence for that. I expect that some politicians are trying to scare people (I wouldn’t know because I rarely listen to them but its the sort of thing that politicians often do) but if that’s the argument he’s making then that’s what he should present evidence for eg. quotes of politicians versus facts, rather than trying to misrepresent research results.

    #62260
    Clark

    SA, November 3, 17:49, #62017

    “As to effects on other organs, my belief is that it is minimal, the major effect being on the respiratory tract. Other effects are probably should be taken as complications of being seriously ill and nursed in ITU.”

    Blood clotting and renal problems are well established medically. The blood clotting causes heart attacks; there were loads of these in the early New York peak, many found by ambulance teams never made it to hospital.

    “I have seen no evidence that it affects IQ or fertility.”

    These are from pre-prints; sorry, I don’t have the links. But we know it infects and affects neurons because a distinctive symptom is loss of taste and smell, though not caused by nasal congestion.

    My point was that this virus is so new that we can’t yet know everything that it can do, but there are some very worrying indications. We can’t know long-term effects until a longer term has passed for effects to be noticed and for research to quantify them. Meanwhile, transmission should be vigorously suppressed.

    #62261
    Clark

    SA, it’s very bad for the heart:

    July 27, 2020
    Outcomes of Cardiovascular Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Patients Recently Recovered From Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916

    Findings: In this cohort study including 100 patients recently recovered from COVID-19 identified from a COVID-19 test center, cardiac magnetic resonance imaging revealed cardiac involvement in 78 patients (78%) and ongoing myocardial inflammation in 60 patients (60%), which was independent of preexisting conditions, severity and overall course of the acute illness, and the time from the original diagnosis.

    That’s empirical; this article in Nature goes into the theory:

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41569-020-0413-9

    “COVID-19 itself can also induce myocardial injury, arrhythmia, acute coronary syndrome and venous thromboembolism.”

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