Ukraine (Date: Nov. 2023)

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  • #93882 Reply

    The latest by Swiss former intelligence officer / historian, Jacques Baud:

    “The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat”

    “This is an excerpt from Colonel Jacques Baud’s latest book, The Russian Art of War: How the West Led Ukraine to Defeat (L’art de la guerre russe: Comment l’occident conduire l’ukraine a la echec). This is a detailed study of the two-year old conflict in which the West has brutally used the Ukrainians to pursue an old pipedream: the conquest of Russia.”

    #94018 Reply


    this might be a bit off-topic but I thought it might interest you.

    “The German hunger genocide
    Survivors of the German hunger blockade of Leningrad during World War II are demanding compensation. The federal government still rejects this 80 years after the blockade.”

    (via google transl. as MOD taught us.)

    One “absurdity” is the fact that Jews who were among the population received compensation. Non-Jews naturally did not.
    The compensation amounted to the gigantic sum of 2556 Euros (wonder why they did not add some cents to that for the sheer fun of it). Of course these are crazy things on all levels. How do you come up with an adequate sum?
    Anyhow. But it´s good to know that Russians, non-Jewish, are still the enemy. Sometimes I get mixed who my government wants me to hate. There are so many bad guys out there right now with the most crazy names…

    #94031 Reply

    German Parliament had issued a report about Ukraine and raw earths/metals as it is being alleged that UKR has the biggest such reserves in Europe.
    The report is out now.

    A short summary under the link.


    The entire report is 57 densely printed pages with graphics. I have translated that German pdf via deepL into an English pdf, but I doubt that I can post a pdf here.

    #94088 Reply

    Zelensky rejected favorable peace deal with Russia – ex-aide
    Ukraine now faces ten to 15 years of war, Aleksey Arestovich has said

    Ukrainian army mostly ‘very old men’ – commander
    The average age of the soldiers is over 40, a senior military official says

    There have been reports/rumours that many of the ukrainian conscripts are deliberately taken from ethically russian ukrainian regions – to get “rid of them”, anyone how much truth there is in such claims?

    #94096 Reply

    Zelensky threatens Putin’s grandchildren
    The Ukrainian leader got personal in his speech at the Davos World Economic Forum
    Not sure if to laugh or cry hearing this bunker-living-millionaire-beggar muppet threatning doing this or that. Guy is a comedian, literally. Or matter of fact, not even that!


    Ukrainian statehood could soon suffer serious blow – Putin

    #94097 Reply

    Sigh: Ukrainian men in EU are ‘cowards’ – Estonian MEP Jaak Madison
    Bloc members must help Kiev send draft dodgers to the front lines, Jaak Madison has said

    A better idea is to let the ukrainian refugees in europe stay and instead send the cocky, tough-guy EU/NATO/arm chair brigade. Start with the whole this estonian dofus and his whole family, go now Mr Madison, show how brave you are!

    Nah, thought so.

    #94103 Reply

    Kit Klarenberg interviewed by Scheerpost in 2 parts (this is called part 2 but it appears to be part 1 – we´ll see.)


    “The Biden admin’s slow but steady abandonment of Ukraine, the potential for a U.S. launched nuclear war against Russia and the incoming wave of terrorism from Ukraine.”

    #94107 Reply

    very good on Gonzalo Lira
    starting TC 22:20
    (an excellent blog in general)

    #94131 Reply

    “The Maple (Canada): NATO Directorate Warned Azov Remained ‘Fanatics.’ Recruits Acquired Canadian-Made Rifles.”

    NATO Directorate Warned Azov Remained ‘Fanatics.’ Recruits Acquired Canadian-Made Rifles, by Alex Cosh (The Maple, 4 Jan 2024)

    – In the first weeks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Canada’s directorate of NATO policy said that Ukraine’s notorious Azov Regiment continued to be far-right “fanatics” despite their integration into the country’s national guard, emails obtained by The Maple through an access to information request show.

    – The NATO policy directorate’s assessment contradicts claims frequently made by Azov’s defenders, who insist that the controversial military unit was de-radicalized after it was formally integrated into the Ukrainian forces — a claim often repeated by Western media sources.

    – “quoted “information from the Directorate of NATO Policy.”

    Copied text in the email read:

    “It’s true that Azov was brought into the NGU [National Guard of Ukraine], but we don’t train them because they are fanatics, and we don’t share their values … It’s true that the Azov has dogged us as an issue for years, but we should definitely not hide from the fact that we train the NGU because of a small minority in their ranks.”

    DND confirmed in an email to The Maple that the ministry still regards Azov Regiment as a far-right extremist group.

    “Our position remains that we are not – nor will we – be providing support to Azov and affiliated entities,” the ministry said in an unsigned email. “We continue to vehemently oppose any and all racist, discriminatory and hateful views and any groups that promote them.”

    #94242 Reply

    Today’s sad news surrounding the Ukrainian conflict. A plane was shot down over Belgorod. Everyone died.
    Initially, the Ukrainian publication boasted of this strike, and the British Guardian noted this publication.

    It turned out that there were 65 Ukrainian captured soldiers on the plane who were heading for a prisoner exchange.
    Before the crash, the crew managed to report the danger.
    The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukraine knew about the exchange and transportation from the Moscow region to Belgorod. It is also reported that the launch was made from Liptsa, Kharkov region, presumably from the American Patriot or the German Iris-T.

    #94249 Reply

    Recommended summary of the geopolitics by Nicolai Petro with the major points hyper-linked.
    Keep this in your archive to prove the major arguments in future discussions after the public has conveniently forgotten.

    “To End the War in Ukraine, Expose Its Core Lie
    by Ted Snider and Nicolai N. Petro | Jan 18, 2024”

    #94255 Reply

    Ukraine killed POWs with American missile – French state media
    The US has not commented on the attack, which left 74 people dead

    First off, why kill your own people?
    Interesting also how media covered this: either by ignoring the event altogether or blaming Russia.

    Next time it might be a civilian airliner being shot down by Ukraine, with western arms…

    #94263 Reply

    Russia threatening NATO – this is the kind of bullshit reporting one has to put up with these days – and this is way more civilized than most of the other outlets:

    “Russian attack on NATO states: Real danger or Pistorius’ “PR number”?

    Politicians and military strategists flank the NATO exercise “Steadfast Defender” with scenarios of a Russian attack on NATO. What’s behind it?”


    ZERO evidence of course. But if the story is thrilling who the hell needs evidence, right!
    Evidence is for losers.

    #94264 Reply

    p.s. and of course the most obvious, namely who is threatening whom, is completely lost to these people. Seriously at some point I can only resort to insults in the vein of Andrei Martyanov. This kindergarten is – to quote John Malkovich in “Burn After Reading” – a league of morons.
    Alas, the most dangerous morons the world has ever seen.

    #94268 Reply

    It’s amazing how a military alliance of several states and one of the largest on this planet speaks with a straight face about the threat from one single state.
    How do they sell it? Do they paint themselves as innocent little lambs or what? Or do they paint the enemy as a non-human being?

    There are some sources of information that I unsubscribed from and promised myself not to look there again, for the sake of preserving the health of my psyche. However, after the crash of the plane with Ukrainian prisoners of war, I looked there again. This was unintentional.
    It’s just that during the discussion, someone mentioned the execution of Azov prisoners of war by Ukrainians in Yelenovka, and there was a link with the comment “here’s another case.”
    What I saw shocked me so much that it still gives me nervous trembling.
    A Ukrainian video blogger visited the battle site and found human remains in a burned tank. Then he filmed himself cooking this bone with meat and eating it. He commented that this is not cannibalism since he is not eating a person.

    #94273 Reply
    Pears Morgaine

    The Ukrainian cannibalism thing dates from March 2022. It’s been noted that the end of the bone had been neatly sawn off so like much else coming out of the conflict it’s probably a fake.

    It’s been reported that Ukrainian drones were active over Belgorod and that the aircraft was brought down by an S400 in a ‘friendly fire’ incident. Russia has already lost a number of aircraft like this and we’re constantly being told that Ukrainian air defences have been worn down to almost nothing.

    #94274 Reply

    There was no neatly sawn end there.
    And frankly, it doesn’t make much difference to me whether he ate human flesh for real, or just pretended to do it.
    The point was that the tank from which he got the bone turned out to be a Ukrainian T-64, so the blogger boasted that he was eating “Russian meat,” but in fact he ate his compatriot.
    “Ironic” would be the appropriate word here, if it weren’t extremely monstrously insane.

    #94335 Reply

    this suggestion to sober up, Mark Sleboda, whose predictions and analyses regarding RU/UKR I found pretty good and accurate many times.

    His major fear is that if RU does move onto Kiev in 1 year´s time or more, NATO steps in either as NATO or as a coalition like in Iraq and goes into the West of UKR but more importantly goes for Odessa. Which then would put us all at the brink.
    And no Trump win or anything else will change the basic policy path, which I agree with.

    He stresses that AFU is far from breaking. That won´t happen. That too is sound I think.

    So yes, this is a forever war unless something fundamental in Europe will change (that´s me now).
    The US won´t change or budge. And that change has to come from below. The diplomatic corps, the editors of media, the major academics, forget those. They might follow if it suits their interests.

    see TC 27:00 + 34:00 (WWIII scenario) + 40:00-44:00 on Steadfast Defender (the largest military exercise since 1988) as a means to prepare infrastructure for US troops to move freely in the EU for war deployment.

    #94338 Reply

    One example for the above by Mark Sleboda mentioned “Military Schengen” to ease troop deployment is this infrastructure project between FRG, POL, NL

    “Germany, Netherlands and Poland agree on “military corridor”

    “The EU Commission recently announced that Germany and another 17 countries would receive around 807 million euros for projects this year. Of this, 92 million euros are planned for Germany. As the responsible EU Commission announced, the money is earmarked for the renewal of a railway bridge in Hanover-Ahlem, the expansion of the Ulm-Dornstadt goods handling terminal and for a siding at Sechtem train station in North Rhine-Westphalia.”

    #94340 Reply

    Zelensky is really….something… is rotten the right word?

    ‘Stop giving money to our refugees’ – Zelensky
    Kiev has asked Berlin to pour funds into its budget instead of spending them on Ukrainians who fled to Germany

    In other reports, nothing new on the eastern front:

    New long-range US bombs headed for Ukraine – media
    Testing for the weapon was only recently concluded, and it has yet to reach Washington’s own inventories

    And the warmongering EU still will not accept that the war cannot be won by Ukraine

    EU opposes Ukraine truce – Borrell
    The bloc’s chief diplomat has called for more weapons for Kiev and further sanctions on Moscow

    …more weapons and money that go straight out of Ukraine

    Ukrainian politicians stealing Western aid – ex-Polish deputy defense minister
    The comments come days after Kiev uncovered another major arms corruption case

    #94345 Reply

    Additional information on the downed plane with Ukrainian prisoners of war was published today by the Investigative Committee.

    “When examining the crash site, experts found 116 fragments of the bodies and mechanisms of two missiles with inscriptions and markings in English. The following markings were found on the collected parts:

    “ASSY 11455748”, “SN740179”, “ASSY 11461343”, “SN740206”, “ASSY 11461865”, “SN740207”, “Raytheon”, “CONFIDENTIAL classified by PATRIOT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION GUIDE DATED: 9/22/83 ADDENDA DATED 11/28/83 8/8/84 CONTRACT NO/DAAH01-86C-A018”, а также “18876 ASSY”, “MARTIN MARIETA” и “10253043-39 02 S/N 80025”.

    The Investigative Committee reports that an anti-aircraft guided missile MIM-104A from the Patriot complex was used to destroy the aircraft.

    I listened to the press-conference which Ukrainians arranged for the relatives of those PoW men. There were questions, unanswered so far, why the regime of silence was not observed, which is usually arranged during the exchange of prisoners and was undoubtedly applied that day too.

    #94350 Reply

    ICJ rejects most of Ukraine’s ‘terrorism’ case against Russia
    Kyiv had accused Moscow of being a ‘terrorist’ state and claimed it funded separatists in eastern Ukraine.

    …although much based on technicalities it seems:

    The court added that only cash transfers could be considered as support for alleged “terrorist” groups under the terms of the international convention on terrorism financing.

    This “does not include the means used to commit acts of terrorism, including weapons or training camps”, the court ruled on Wednesday.

    #94354 Reply

    Good point, Jack. Did the court admit that Russia supplied weapons and trained terrorists? Or is it just a matter of wording?
    Or, is the point here is that many countries provide weapons and train people who commit acts of terrorism? Like, for example, the Azov men? Or, some states may give an explosive device to Daria Trepova, to kill Tatarsky? Or, the explosive device that killed Daria Dugina? Or, for example, a state committed to establishing training camps for “moderate rebels” somewhere in the Middle East could be found to be a sponsor of terrorism? And now is an inconvenient time to recognize such states as sponsors of terrorism?
    It is absurd, of course, that sending money is considered sponsoring terrorism, but sending weapons and training is not. But as I see it, the task of the court is to be strictly committed to the letter of the law, and I also see that many can benefit from such rules of the game.

    #94357 Reply

    Yes that is some great questions actually Tatyana. I have no further answer that what you say is likely true.

    In other “news”:
    EU opposes Ukraine truce – Borrell
    The bloc’s chief diplomat has called for more weapons for Kiev and further sanctions on Moscow

    How could one be against a truce?? Thosuands of people killed, maimed for no reason, how can the EU still be so brainwashed to believe that Ukraine is about to win?!

    Does not this say anything to Borell? That dictator Zelensky now sack his critical top general?
    Zelensky to fire top general this week – CNN

    Is it not interesting also how just days ago all these talk about Zelensky kicking this general out of office, that that was russian disinformation? Laughable!

    #94363 Reply

    Moon of Alabama

    “The Power Scuffle Continues
    The scuffle in Kiev over replacing the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine General Valeri Zaluzny continues.
    CNN reports that he will be fired within the next 48 hours.”

    #94365 Reply

    Ru-news say that Zaluzhny is popular among the population and poses a threat to Zelensky in the upcoming elections. So Ze tried to exile him to another country as Ukraine’s ambassador, and give Budanov the honor of commander-in-chief. The latter refused, and there were no others willing either; as they say, no one wants to lead an army on the eve of defeat

    #94374 Reply

    Allegedly, Ukraine have once agains manage to strike a russian warship:

    To be honest all these attacks against Russia while Russia do nothing in respone is what cause west to believe Ukraine have a chance to win.

    Come on, it is 2024, almost 2 year into the war and Russia have still not manage to secure their warship-armada from attacks??
    Sometimes it feels like there is no one at work at the russian side of the war. Very very odd strategy/war.

    #94382 Reply

    The ICJ has published online a 32 page summary of the judgements in the case brought by Ukraine against Russia which can be found here.

    It documents how all the various votes went as well as documenting the dissenting opinion further down the document.

    #94385 Reply

    A rather rare item: Interview with Karaganov on a major alternative German news site, however of Hungarian origin:

    “Interview with security expert Karaganov: USA would sacrifice Europe without hesitation”

    “Russian security expert Sergei Karaganov (71) caused a stir in the summer of 2023 with statements about possible nuclear strikes by Russia against the West. This led to heated discussions inside and outside Russia. The Hungarian foreign journalist and editor-in-chief of the Moszkvatér portal Gábor Stier spoke to him about the Russia-Ukraine war, the transformation of the world and the relationship between Russia and Europe. Éva Péli translated the text into German.”

    #94389 Reply

    3-part-commentary on naked capitalism:
    “Ukraine: Breakthrough on All Fronts Ahead of Schedule” (breakthrough by Russia not Ukraine)

    1) Intro by Yves Smith
    2) John Helmer
    3) What does the offensive of Russian troops in the Kharkov region mean?
    By Yevgeny Krutikov

    #94410 Reply

    To document this asshole behaviour:

    Oleksandra Matviichuk who received the most unnecessary award on this planet, the Nobel Peace Prize, in an interview doing what?

    Right, calling for war. As she has been doing for years. It´s just sick.

    Jean-Paul Sartre when receiving his Nobel Prize declined the money (a decision many years later he wanted to reverse) – on the same basis it should be possible to cancel her award (and abolish the entire Committee).

    Oleksandra Matwijtschuk: Calling for negotiations with Russia is wishful thinking
    In an interview, the Ukrainian human rights activist and Nobel Peace Prize winner talks about Germany’s role in the war and explains why she rejects negotiations with Russia.”

    Febr. 3rd. 2024

    p.s. I find it fascinating that almost every US-affiliated UKR female public person looks a bit like a model. Very very very woke and emancipated indeed.

    #94412 Reply

    Good personal account by one of the last German reporters in RU, Ulrich Heyden, who however has beend suspended by one the papers he had been reporting for early 2022 after readers had complained.

    By now this is all ancient history.

    “My left-wing friends in Germany”

    last paragraph:

    “At some point – I hope – the Germans will realize that the major German media are lying to them and that there is no democratic system in Ukraine that needs to be supported. How can a country be a democracy in which all opposition media and opposition parties are banned, in which right-wing extremists can set fire to a trade union building with impunity and attack and even murder dissidents in the street? What does it have to do with democracy and proximity to Europe when streets and squares in Ukraine are named after Hitler collaborators Stepan Bandera and Roman Shuchevich? And what’s democratic about it if peace negotiations with Russia were banned by law? At some point, people in Germany will hopefully realize that it is wrong to supply weapons to a country like Ukraine.”

    #94421 Reply


    re: Poland and WMDs

    The closest what I could find are prospective mere speculations.

    Hans Kristensen in the summer 2023 mentioned that US WMDs stationed in GB could be transfered to Poland however there was no sign that such a transfer was at hand:

    At about the same time Dmitry Stefanovich in Moscow speculated about similiar possible transfers. Not more.

    Though there is always a tiny uncertainty about the exact status of WMDs sometimes, there seems to be no real evidence to this now. E.g. with Kaliningrad silos last fall, the last time I checked, there was uncertainty whether there were warheads or not and in what state.

    Similiar was true for modernization of US-nukes at the European vaults. It had been announced by the US well before, to take place around late 2022/early 2023. But the exact date was not given.

    These locations are apparently unchanged and thus do not include Poland. “Only” the usual West European NATO spots and Turkey.

    What is more cause for concern are the Polish “Aegis Ashore” positions installed against RU ICBMs.
    If those could as well be re-fitted into attack missiles like the land-based in Romania I don´t know.

    Unfortunately it is very difficult to find sources that are not biased against RU. It´s amazing how ideolgocially deformed this discourse is despite being such a sensitive matter. You find almost no Western scholar/scientists who would not regard RU as the villain.

    The fact that I know about the US aggressiveness on this matter is only due to private conversations with people who were involved in these affairs and know about the internal discussions.
    But those are completely sealed off from Western media.

    And worse, Western media don´t even want to hear it.

    The fact that the US is actually not only capable to carry out first strikes but also has plans to use their advantage (which despite hyper-sonic hype probably still is the case) and people in Washington thinking about these things, by our MSM would be regarded as a fairy-tale or Russian fabrication.

    #94424 Reply

    Why are you surprised? Europe accused a certain nation of drinking the blood of Christian babies. And many eagerly supported this.

    Well, on our side there is news about Macron’s statement about providing their nuclear arsenal to the EU. And Britain’s proposal to NATO to send an expeditionary force to Ukraine.
    So, here we have more and more people convinced that Putin is right and undoubtedly he will collect many votes in the upcoming elections. We really are not at war with Ukraine, but with NATO.
    Look above, Jack is surprised how Ukraine is capable of causing damage to Russian ships. I think that Ukraine is not capable of this, but NATO, with all this equipment, satellite reconnaissance, mercenaries, advisers and other help, is quite capable. And this, of course, is a threat to us, and we will, of course, counter it.

    #94435 Reply

    Odd admission by Poland

    Crimea is historically Russian – Polish president

    “I don’t know if [Ukraine] will regain Crimea, but I believe it will regain Donetsk and Lugansk,” he stated, referring to the two republics that broke off Ukraine in 2014 and joined Russia after referendums in late 2022. Crimea, however, “is a special place,” including for “historical reasons,” the Polish president argued.

    If Ukraine were to enter either Crimea or Donetsk, Luhansk horrific ethnic cleansing hunt and round-ups would occur against the ethnic russian citizens living there.

    #94438 Reply

    As I understand the serious reports on the war, “regaining Donetsk and Lugansk” is of course complete bullshit.
    If any logic behind that statement, it´s the usual counter-factual PR-talk.

    May be it was also a reaction to now Putin in fact repeating statements made by Medvedev 1 year ago re: expanding RU-controlled areas of UKR. The RU are on the move. Everyone knows this.

    So far apparently the secret cease-fire talks between both sides´ military had no result and in the light of the mad jingoist bullshit behaviour of the EU and the FRG (50 bn.) and the idiotic flaring up of demands for an EU-bomb (or TATYANA mentioning Macron´s hair-raising suggestions of French WMDs) the Polish needed to say something too.

    And the Russians are doing what they have been doing so far.

    #94443 Reply

    Gordon Hahn with an outlook, as usual with him, gloomy. But listening to all kinds of views is part of this I guess:

    “Russian Strategic Transformation in Ukraine: From ‘Aggressive Attrition’ to ‘Attrit and Advance’?”
    it ends with this speculative forecast

    Should they (UKR) persist in rejecting negotiations, then the Russian advance now seems destined to end no sooner than the Dniepr River and the flight, fall, or breakdown of the Maidan regime and perhaps the end of a Ukrainian presence east of the Dniepr.

    This is unlikely to be an end of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War. It will enter an new, perhaps intermittent perhaps or short-term hybrid phase. From then on, rump Ukraine, infused with NATO advisors and troops and burgeoning with NATO weapons, will sponsor partisan and sabotage activities in the east. Hopefully, this phase of semi-frozen conflict will lead years down the road to a non-military resolution of this conflict. The risk inherent in this hopeful, if not wishful thinking becomes apparent if we turn our eyes to the south at Gaza, the West Bank, Israel, Lebanon, and the Middle East writ large. Thus, before or after the beginning of a new hybrid phrase, Odessa, Transnistria, Belarus or one of the Baltic states may become a flash point that ignites a full-scale NATO-Russian War for which some in Western corridors of power seem to long.

    #94444 Reply

    AG, is it true that Pizdorius is getting more and more popular, and that German media use ‘kriegstüchtig’ word more and more often?

    #94446 Reply


    Both are part of a stupid PR-campaign.

    As Russian you might not get a really good picture of what is going on here in Germany, because even in Germany we do not get a decent picture through our own media since they are constantly lying or telling half-truths or exaggerating.
    They have become instruments of state propaganda.

    So its all sorta schizophrenic. Because what you read is not really what many think and feel.

    “Cunt”orius is just the war minister. And since we are at war the war minister had an interim high in polls. But that will fade away at some point.

    The “kriegstüchtig” of course might become an underlying demand, lingering somewhere in public discourse if Europe indeed will spend more money on “defense”.

    But people today definitely don´t want to go to the army. Nor militarize. The spending on UKR so far has not yet impaired enough peoples´ finances. When that happens things can change abruptly.

    Unlike with Russia for Europeans the war in Ukraine is more or less a computer game. Just like Iraq 1991 and all wars since, caused by the West.

    Except for Yugoslavia, Europeans have no war experience. Keep that in mind.

    This is all very odd: On the one hand we experience this public madness which in such fervor is new.
    On the other, news and counternews are out within seconds. It´s difficult to hold up lies in a way that the people will constantly believe in them the old way.

    The media report them. But as well do alternative sources. And the truth is out there.
    (Compare to Vietnam. It took 15 years until protests started to emerge.)

    One question is how this will or will not change with the new EU Digital Services Act and NATO allegedly building up.
    One is certain, history is never written in advance.
    That´s important to remember when reading about “Cunt”orius and all the other nonsense.

    Read what you can. But please don´t take our news too seriously. First and foremost: News is a business. And the news business is in serious crisis. And they do all kinds of shitty stuff to sell their poduct.
    And to them it doesn´t matter if it´s a war or cats on a tree.

    #94447 Reply


    Most likely the sources of the idiotic German “kriegstüchtig” warmongering are Sweden and Denmark, trumpeted by British propaganda unit RUSI and confirmed by German officials.

    All of thise is naturally total conincidence weeks after the biggest NATO excercise “Steadfast Defender” was announced.

    On Jan. 9th the Danish Defense Committee published an MPs question.

    (machine transl. a bit awkward, sry.)

    pdf download of Danish original:

    “The Defense Committee of the Danish Parliament

    Member of the Folketing Alex Ahrendtsen (DF) has the following on January 9, 2024
    Question No. 76 was asked, which is hereby answered.

    Can the Minister explain what color Bornholm is in the Swedish scenario,
    the Z. The TV2 article “Here Sweden can be attacked first” was published on January 9th.
    January 2024 published on 8:42 a.m., where Skåne, Blekinge and Gotland are red
    are marked and therefore most at risk?

    It is the Defense Intelligence Service (FE) that investigates the threat to Denmark
    assesses foreign actors.

    “FE currently considers it unlikely that Russia will enter into a military conflict wants to trigger with NATO. FE therefore assumes that currently neither Bornholm poses a military threat to other parts of the Commonwealth consists.

    FE assumes that Finland’s NATO membership and the expected Sweden’s membership affects Russia’s strategic position in the Baltic Sea region have weakened. In the short term, Russia will not be able to enter the Baltic Sea region to supply troops and material to an extent that the land military Restores superiority in the region that Russia had invaded Ukraine had. However, Russia is in the process of comprehensively military rearmament, which also includes the stationing of new units in the Baltic Sea region and in the northwest of the country.

    It is likely that Russia’s willingness to take risks towards NATO countries will increase with this troop increase. Russia will most likely continue to be careful to avoid its military Activities trigger NATO Article 5. However, it is also very likely that Russia intends to use its military means to attack NATO countries below the Article 5 threshold.

    Among other things, Russia can use its military capabilities to put pressure on individuals countries through actions that violate existing agreements and international rules violated, but below the war threshold. This applies, for example, to The Injury national territorial borders by military aircraft or warships or the use of sonar etc. but can also include larger troop deployments along national borders or exercise activities include restrictions on Western military activities in international waters.”

    Best regards
    Troels Lund Poulsen”

    Our friends from British RUSI quoting undisclosed Swedish threat assessments:
    “NATO Societies Must be Ready for War”

    e.g. (for hyperlinks see original)

    “Earlier this month, Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin acknowledged to a defence conference that ‘there could be war in Sweden’. The Swedish Commander-in-Chief, General Micael Bydén, went further, declaring that all Swedes needed to ‘prepare for war’. While these comments received some criticism for being alarmist, Sweden operates a total defence model, and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency has for many years published a brochure for its citizens titled ‘If Crisis or War comes’. Last week, Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee and the Alliance’s most senior military officer, warned that NATO could be at war with Russia within 20 years, which would require many civilians having to be mobilised to fight. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius assessed that his country needed between five to eight years to be ready for war, and a leaked German military planning scenario worked on the assumption of hostilities opening with Russia as early as 2025.”

    Interesting final phrase from EURONEWS on the German source, link in the above:

    “The leaking of Germany’s plan comes only days after Sweden’s Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin warned citizens that their country might soon face the prospect of war.”

    BBC with the Swedish statement:
    “Swedish alarm after defence chiefs’ war warning”

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