Election Result Prediction 14


Here, from the famous back of my envelope, is my predicted result as percentage of votes cast in the UK in tonight’s Euro polls:

Conservative 29

Lib Dem 24

UKIP 17

New Labour 16

Green 6

Nationalists 4

BNP 2

Other 2

Gordon Brown has just done a triumphalist New Labour rally in Newham which was perhaps the most surrealistic thing ever to have happened in British politics. Really, deeply weird.


14 thoughts on “Election Result Prediction

  • HJ

    All seems reasonable, with the exception of the Lib Dem estimate which seems wildly over the top. Did you mean to put 14? That would seem more realistic. I also don’t think Labour will do quite as well as you are anticipating but that doesn’t seem as far fetched as the Lib Dem result.

  • SJB

    My prediction:

    Conservative 28

    Lib Dem 16

    UKIP 17

    Labour 18

    Green 11

    Nationalists 4

    BNP 5

    Other 1

  • alien

    Craig

    If Gordon Brown announced tomorrow that he would accept a leadership contest, who, if any, will put themselves forward when labour had already lost the next general elections no matter who’s leading it?

  • sam

    NuLab – the delusions deepen.

    That’s why it looks weird – because it IS weird. Sane people generally can’t understand psychotic mindsets.

    Belated ‘RAHRAHRAH!!!’ on your Norfolk foray. Wish I lived there and could vote for you!

  • KevinB

    Yes, what a great show. They were all grinning and applauding each other like it was 1997.

    Hilarious.

  • lesley

    Craig – do you also have a prediction for the percentage of the electorate that actually voted? And how low would that percentage have to be before we could claim it null and void and take to the streets, or squat in the Commons, or some other gentle non-violent, ‘the country belongs to us’ kind of response?

  • A Friend

    Ah Craig Murray, the reason why you don’t get any libel problems is because you are always deemed to be such small potatoes. Carry on enjoying your life as a worm (this is my opinion of course).

  • David Wearing

    Assuming your calculations are correct, that’s a big defeat for progressive politics.

    I’m classifying the parties as follows

    Regressive / right-wing / centre-right:

    Tories, NuLab, UKIP, BNP – 64 seats

    Progressive / centre / centre-left:

    Lib-Dems, Greens, Nationalists – 34

    If this is the best we can do after the demonstrable, high-profile practical and moral failures of both neo-imperialism and neo-liberalism, plus the total discrediting of the entire political class and system, then that really is a pathetic showing by progressives in Britain.

    This moment in history represents a temporary window of opportunity. The right is leaping through it while progressives are fluffing their lines.

  • A Doctor Replies

    ‘Carry on enjoying your life as a worm (this is my opinion of course).’

    .

    I can see some definite signs of self-dscription in your homily.

    Squirm-as-you-blog is obviously very therapeutic for you.

    Do you have a Rictus Grin by any chance?

  • ingo

    So who will be the Norwich North Green party candidate? Will it be Adrian Ramsay, rushing to be the first, youngest and fastest Green MPs, or will he be able to hold himself back having already eyed up and focussed on Charles Clarkes seat in Norwich south, his declared choice.

    Or will it be a high profile bussed in Green with a FoE pedigree or a hobnobbing friend in high places, who will be the Green Party candidate for Norwich North Craig?

    There are so many frequenting your blog at present, asking you to support their candidate, maybe they would like to say who this candidate will be, if not the choosen one from last years general election list choosen at the Norfolk Green party meeting?

  • tony_opmoc

    It doesn’t take long to count votes. Most of them can be done within 5 hours of the election ending – which in the UK was 22:00 Last Thursday.

    Now I can appreciate that for the Silly Rules contructed by The EU – that No One Can Say What the Results are Until The Last Vote has been cast in some incredibly remote lighthouse somewhere to the North East of Europe

    But the Result of the Election in the UK must be Well Known and as of 22:38 – possibly as a result of being bewitched by the Blonde girl on TV before Glynnis made an appearence and said yes its a great job _ I only have to turn up to the cabinet meetings about once in 3 years – I still don’t know what it is

    THEY CAN’T HIDE IT

    FFS Have UKIP come FIRST?

    Tony

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