About a month ago I asked a former colleague in the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office what Hague saw as the endgame in the Julian Assange asylum standoff, and where the room for negotiation lay. My friend was dismissive – the policy was simply to wait for the Presidential election in Ecuador in February. The United States and allies were confident that Correa will lose, and my friend and I having both been senior diplomats for many years we understood what the United States would be doing to ensure that result. With Correa replaced by a pro-USA President, Assange’s asylum will be withdrawn, the Metropolitan Police invited in to the Embassy of Ecuador to remove him, and Assange sent immediately to Sweden from where he could be extradited to the United States to face charges of espionage and aiding terrorism.
I have been struck by the naivety of those who ask why the United States could not simply request Assange’s extradition from the United Kingdom. The answer is simple – the coalition government. Extradition agreements are government to government international treaties, and the decision on their implementation is ultimately political and governmental – that is why it was Teresa May and not a judge who took the final and very different political decisions on Babar Ahmad and Gary Mackinnon.
CIA supporters in the UK have argued vociferously that it would be impossible for Sweden to give Assange the assurance he would not be extradited to the United States, with which he would be prepared to return to Sweden to see off the rather pathetic attempted fit-up there. In fact, as extradition agreements are governmental not judicial instruments, it would be perfectly possible for the Swedish government to give that assurance. Those who argue otherwise, like Gavin Essler and Joan Smith here, are not being truthful – I suspect their very vehemence indicates that they know that.
Most Liberal Democrat MPs are happy to endorse the notion that Assange should be returned to Sweden to face sexual accusations. However even the repeatedly humiliated Lib Dem MPs would revolt at the idea that Assange should be sent to face life imprisonment in solitary confinement in the United States for the work of Wikileaks. That is why the United States has held off requesting extradition from the United Kingdom, to avoid the trouble this would cause Cameron. I am not speculating, there have been direct very senior diplomatic exchanges on this point between Washington and London.
There was confidence that the Correa problem would soon pass, but the State Department has since been shocked by the return of Hugo Chavez. Like Correa, senior US diplomats had convinced themselves – and convinced La Clinton – that Chavez was going to lose. The fury at Chavez’s return has led to a diktat that the same mistake must not be made in Ecuador.
CIA operations inside Ecuador are in any case much less disrupted than in Venezuela. I learn that the US budget, using mostly Pentagon funds, devoted to influencing the Ecuadorean election has, since the Venezuelan result, been almost tripled to US $87 million. This will find its way into opposition campaign coffers and be used to fund, bribe or blackmail media and officials. Expect a number of media scandals and corruption stings against Correa’s government in the next few weeks.
I do not have much background on Ecuadorean politics and I really do not know what Correa’s chances of re-election are. Neither do I know if any of the opposition parties are decent and not in the hands of the USA. But I do know that the USA very much want Correa to lose, were very confident that he was going to lose, and now are not. From their point of view, the danger is that in upping the ante, their efforts will become so obvious they will backfire in a nationalist reaction. My US source however is adamant that the Obama adminstration will not actually use the funds to incite another military coup attempt against Correa. That has apparently been ruled out. Assange being expelled into the arms of the CIA by a newly installed military dictatorship might be a difficult sell even for our appalling mainstream media.
@Mark Golding
I share your frustration and despair at the BBC. I curse it daily for it’s part in enabling the accelerating destruction of rights, decency and justice in the world. I would hate it for it’s part in Operation Cast Lead alone.
However, if I am reading this country right, there is a long-running campaign in the rest of the British media to undermine and ultimately destroy the BBC. I don’t believe it’s a commercial motive because I don’t believe that media ownership is about money.
As long as Murdoch views the BBC as an enemy, I will take some satisfaction that it’s a fly in his ointment. I wouldn’t go so far as to say the enemy of my enemy is my friend, but at least the BBC’s brand of lies is coming to us through a different set of filters from News International. Perhaps it is easier to see through the lies when we have 2 lie-providers to compare.
If the BBC is destroyed, the rest of the media will fill the gap and we will certainly be no better off, probably worse .
We are fighting against all black media here…
but we got a very dark past in hands of corruption and despotism.. so we believe in Correa.
CIA can´t write a different past behind our history, Rafael Correa is our future and we are walking in straight line
Thank you for this article
@Herbie
(re. possibility that if Assange is really left on his own overnight, he could be snatched)
“I think it’s more difficult for Britain to mess with Ecuador these days. Any such messing would I’m sure result in sanctions of some description from a number of resource rich latin American countries. Were such messing to take place, I’m afraid it would only be with the private blessing of Ecuador.”
If I were Julian Assange, I wouldn’t want my life gambled on such calculations.
Certainly there’d be no problem with the mainstream media and public opinion in the UK after such a nocturnal snatch, sold to the domestic market with the story that Julian Assange let himself out onto a communal stairwell, outside of the extra-territorial space, by accident, probably while sleepwalking or if not that, then he simply mistook the front door for the bathroom door while drowsy after an evening drinking wine.
World-leading professors specialising in sleepwalking, editors of medical journals and with long records at London’s most prestigious teaching hospitals, would be wheeled on to say that sleepwalking is much more common than many lay people realise.
Cases would be found where someone found his way not through 2 or 3 doors but through 25 doors and could remember nothing about it the next morning.
If a local domestic servant staying nearby reported that they saw 15 well-built men wearing black masks and jerseys rush through the street entrance at 2.30am, and then rush back out again 10 minutes later carrying a person-sized item on a stretcher, don’t worry – the witness would soon be ‘exposed’ as a one-time prostitute (cf. Carmen Proetta), and illegal immigrant (cf. Jean-Charles de Menezes), or whatever. Or someone would be found who could tell a similar story, or a more lurid one, who also happened to have a record of making stuff up. Other would-be witnesses would be ‘visited’. Lock specialists would say that it was impossible to pick the lock from the outside in less than 4 hours, and so on.
If embassy staff the next day found the print of a size-9 desert boot in the embassy corridor, well…the newspapers would be told to print the story that 3 plumbing firms and 2 different electricians had visited the embassy in the previous week, and they had managed to trace two guys who were wearing very similar boots. British officials would say that they fully accepted that what went on inside the embassy was a matter for the Ecuadorean authorities, and would say that those authorities were welcome to interview the men, rather than making accusations against HMG, if the men were willing to be interviewed.
That kind of stuff.
I think it would be mad to leave Assange on his own in the embassy during the night!
@Cryptonym
I take your point about a BBC-less news media being easier to recognise as the fraud it is.
Do you agree with my analysis that the rest of the UK media is trying to destroy the BBC? If you do, can you suggest a motivation?
Seems I’m under spam attack; who could have done that I wonder? Someone has attempted to sign me up to five mailing lists, including Infowars.
Correa’s man offence, in the eyes of the US, was to insist on an audit of Ecuador’s National Debt. And then, when it revealed what such audits will reveal, an adjustment of payments.
Any country which, faced with a ‘debt crisis’, does not take the basic step of reviewing both the make up of the debt and the way in which it accumulated is betraying its citizens in the interests of financiers, warmongers and, in many cases, criminals.
It is amazing that neither Ireland,Greece nor Spain, for example, have made auditing the debt, publicly, a pre-condition to honouring it. It is impossible to believe that public opinion would not insist on such a policy being adopted if any political party were to promote it.
N_
Great stuff. The craft in delightful detail. Not saying it couldn’t happen, but it would be much more likely to happen were Assange not being backed by a state. It’s that which makes all the difference.
Thing is we don’t know precisely what arrangements they’ve made at the embassy, but I’m sure such risk assessments will have been covered. Could be a few Ecuador military people hanging around for all we know, waiting to spank a few bobbie’s bums.
$87 million?
The media landscape in Eucador would be relevant to the issue of interference in elections. Some questions come to mind, which perhaps some better informed posters would care to elaborate on:
Is it dominated by print tabloids?
What are the serious investigative papers like?
To what extent do they have an online presence? Allow comments?
To what extent are there alternative news sites and blogs of various kinds and associations?
How tightly does the government control online media?
More generally, what is the extent of internet availability to the general population – broadband/dialup/mobile etc.?
How does this compare with similar nations – in particular, how did the effect of online media play out for Chavez?
In the USA – have there been any recent position vacant notices for translators/analysts/”bloggers” fluent in Eucadorian?
I am Ecuadorian and I’m quite sure Correa will will the coming presidential elections!! he will get at least 70% of votes!
Que pena me dan las abndonadas ……una frase de un gran escritor,……….que es absolutamente referible a esta gente que no conoce lo que es vivir en un pais, donde la madre naturaleza por inspiracion de Dios nos dio todo lo mas grande que no poseen los comentaristas anteriores, o por lo memos la mayoria, es una gran cantidad de esbirristas oligarcas que no pueden ser gente de bien, sino mas bien gente de estrecho cerebro y pensamiento, egoismo mno puede ser lo que tienen sino mas bien egocentrismo, esos son muestras de la degradacion humana, No saben que en estos ultimos años Correa actua como un ser humano con miras a dar un mejor nivel de vida a los seres humanos y a la naturaleza incluso del mundo, (proyecto Yasuni) pero el ego no les permite ver mas alla de sus narices.
Este es cambio de época, esta eradcandose y estraemos listos para defenderla sea quien sea el adversario, no nos volveremos a inclinar ante el imperio, solo les recuerdo que el imperio ya esta con un pie en el cadalzo.
Nunca imaginaron que surgirian patriotas como Correa, como Chavez o como Evo, la America latina sera la proxima potencia del mundo sin EEUU, asi que cuidado con atrverse a intentyar sus miserias en esta tierra que hoy y para siempre sera un Ecuador Diferente, patriota, libertario, humano y solidario.Asta la victoria siempre compañeros
rafael correa, hugo chavez and cristina fernandes, abuse the people the humans rights, they are abused people america
Amigos mios de habla castellano:
Les agradezco muchisimo por comentar en este blog en favor de la independencia y la dignidad de los paises de latino america. Basta con las ordenes de los imperialistas norteamericanos. Basta con los tramos del CIA. Ya es hora que latinoamerica establezca su propia identidad sin la injerencia de Washington DC. Me da confianza y esperanza el liderazgo de mandatarios como Chavez, Morales y Correa.
Un mundo mejor es posible.
Con toda mi solidaridad,
Un “pirata” britanico
Well…the 25 November Theresa May will be announcing/deciding on the relevance of some EAW’s because Cameron sees some of the requests as time waisting and expensive…surely..there’s some hope from this….no need for police if the request isn’t going to be honoured….though it’s true..also WW3 might break out at the end of the American elections on 6th Nove…the world might have some very different considerations…so I guess we have to keep digging for an answer too…
MJ,
It’s not so simple….
If your plan depends on secrecy, how do you prove you are not a double, ensure it stays secret, and avoid repercussions? 🙂
N_,
It is nice of you to try to encourage them to fall into such a simple trap, however, after the last attempt that was foiled by a live video stream and twitter campaign of supporters and aborted at the last minute, how do you plan to convince them that nothing will go wrong? Like some secure stream of live images of them breaking into the embassy door? Even a few CCTV frames, say from an adjoining embassy?
Anyway, was that REALLY Lady Gaga seen leaving in a black cape and Witch’s hat? 🙂
Un mundo mejor es posible
Yes!
And hello to @evgueni, good to see you.
Thank you for your message to us Viva ‘Ecaudor’.
Castilian-speaking friends of mine:
Thank you so much for commenting on this post in favor of independence and dignity of the countries of Latin America. Enough with the orders of the U.S. imperialists. Simply the sections of CIA. It is time for Latin America to establish its own identity without interference from Washington DC. It gives me confidence and hope the leadership of leaders like Chavez, Morales and Correa.
A better world is possible.
With all my sympathy,
A “pirate” British
::::
Unfortunately the same Google translator could not deal with Marco’s to make its meaning clear. Shame Esperanto never took off.
That would be an amazing feat, and you’ll know for sure something went wrong, as Correa is consistently found to be the most popular president in the Americas.
It’s true that the Ecuadorian private media is always trying to connect some type of corruption to Correa. Right now they are going after his second cousin, Pedro Delgado, but there’s nothing convincing so far.
About a month ago there was an unusual surge of dangerous forest fires around Quito, largely found to be the result of arson (some reportedly started with Molotov cocktails). There were a number of theories, one being that it was a political conspiracy of sorts.
Fyi, the 2 main US men in the upcoming elections are:
– Lucio Gutierrez, former president, lapdog of the US embassy.
– Guillermo Lasso, banker, informant of the US embassy.
I know this (how else) thanks to Wikileaks.
As an ecuadorian, currently living in ecuador and has since 31 years ago, Rafael Correa’s government has been one of the worse political, historic and social mistakes the country has faced in a long time.
He manipulates justice and media for his own benefit to hide the corruption in all levels in this system he has implanted.
If the CIA is planning to swamp correa, GOOD FOR US ECUADORIANS.
We are currently witnessing how he and his people is shamelessly washing money through banks he owns and controls, and then he tries to cover the crime instead of punishing it.
FUCK CORREA he is a dictator in the same way gadaffi was.
Just read some of the comments supporting rafael correa. They are obviously paid to say so. It is unbelievable.
This people has no education they are all brainwhased or paid to support him.
I seriously think we, as a third world country with little or limited education, are fucking doomed to have dictators as presidents, such as correa.
Look at Venezuela. Fucking third world country rich in oil and resources but Chavez controls it all.
Ecuador, Venezuela and Argentina are all aligned to control the whole region and start a world war, they all have conections with terrorists like FARC, Hezbollah and Iran, can’t people see that???
@Herbie,
“Correa expelled a US amabassador, for terrorist activities.”
Just to set the record straight, it was for meddling, which was discovered in cables published by Wikileaks of course. The ambassador, Heather Hodges, was passing back rumors about an allegedly corrupt police captain, and how Correa must have appointed him because he knew the guy was corrupt. Total fabrications.
The police captain was temporarily removed from his job, thoroughly investigated, and cleared of any wrongdoing in the end. Of course, this was highly disruptive to the guy’s reputation and livelihood. Last I heard, he wanted to sue Wikileaks over the matter.
Daniel, Venezuala isn’t perfect, but Chavez has done some remarkable things with literacy amongst the desperately poor, and popularised political enfranchisement. The constitution now is printed on bags of sugar and other food items.
Criticism of human rights remains valid, I think, and whilst this may be in part a result of US attempts to sabotage Chavez’ popularity, such points do need answering.
Your view does seem to be rather one-sided. It isn’t at all clear that supporters of genuinely leftist Latin American leader are paid or brainwashed – perhaps some people really believe these leaders to be a good thing? Chavez was re-elected on another good turnout recently, and the elections were fair as far as I know.
This is great. Real whatitsallabout politics. Just like the good old days, before Thatch.
Ooooooh..
Viva la Quince Brigada!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0pqsR0l16pc
Jose, thanks for the elaboration.
I’m sure that kind of meddling and interference would be seen as subversive in some quarters – do not pass go, straight to Guantanamo.
Daniel, we cannot determine whether you really are in Ecuador, but if you are, then wishing for anti-democratic CIA involvement is not wise. It is generally best to place one’s trust in democratic processes, since they are more likely to represent the views of ordinary people than US-sponsored coups.
I believe Wikipedia has a full list of US foreign interventions, if you are interested. Ditto William Blum, in his book “Rogue State”. The list doesn’t make for pleasant reading, if you believe that the will of the people should be respected.
Correa’s been elected in elections found free and fair by international observers.
http://eeas.europa.eu/eueom/pdf/missions/ecuador-final-report_2008_en.pdf
The amnesty international reports do report torture, disappearances and murders by police of indigenous people who oppose mining and dam construction in Ecuador though – and even a case of a government minister shouting “you’re a dead man” at one campaigner against a development, so maybe a dictatorship in practice in some ways.
Free elections but no right to life is not a democracy really. The question is whether Correa and his government are responsible for the torture and deaths or if it’s e.g policemen bribed by big companies and landowners
Carlos Montaner is an exiled Cubano.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/10/08/3040820/chavez-wins-capriles-consolidates.html
Daniel
Who do you support in Ecuador, or Venezuela?
This is just for context.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/06/11/2844451/alba-attacks-justice-human-rights.html
Working within existing corrupt systems, taints your integrity. Otherwise, you are operating at a disadvantage.