Strong Swing to Mahama in Western region 45


There are fairly uniform swings to John Mahama all over the Western region:

Suaman 4.7% to NDC
Essikadu/Ketan 3.1% to NDC
Takoradi 1.9% to NDC
Sekondi 4.5% to NDC
Shama 2.5% to NDC

It looks like Mahama’s powerful showing in the West and the North might get him home, unless Akuffo-Addo performs very well in Accra. But not much evidence in from Accra yet.


45 thoughts on “Strong Swing to Mahama in Western region

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  • Mary

    I wrote to the BBC about their error here.
    ‘Mr Akufo-Addo draws much of his support from urban areas and among members of his Ashanti community.’ using the comments box below this article.

    {http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20631933}

    It has not been corrected nor was there any acknowledgement!

    There must now be a national database of citizens’ fingerprints coupled with facial recognition. Did the people want that? What was wrong with the old system of using an indelible ink on a finger?

    The suppliers
    http://www.supremainc.com/mail/img_121106/RSG10-Ghana_Election.pdf provided the fingerprint system plus facial recognition. Nice work. Coming to the UK soon?

    Korean. {http://supremainc.com/eng/company/overview.php?mark=1}

  • Heretic

    Anyone reading the last few posts from Craig could be forgiven for thinking he is just another ‘establishment dissident’.

    He claims that he is now an ‘outsider’ yet gets invited along to all expenses paid Arab League events (who nominated him?).

    He is busy giving ‘democratic’ credentials to Ghana, where corruption is rife and Craig has financial interests in their Gold and Energy. He even candidly admits to knowing the two leading candidates.

    Come one people, wise up.

  • Mary

    Heretic ought to be going after Hague. The little sh*t is in Bahrain toadying around the oppressors-in-charge.

    Stephen Sizer is a honourable man for whom I and many many others have the highest regard. Not many of his calling speak out on injustice. Not even Archbishops of Canterbury.

  • Heretic

    Transparency International is actually a ‘perception index’ and people talking up Ghana’s democratic credentials, like you, are skewing it’s position even further.

    As far as I can Ghana as just another potential ‘in’ on African resources, namely minerals and energy, both of which you have a financial interest yourself in that country. You also know both leading candidates.

    Just saying, if perception is everything then this is not looking good for you.

  • guest

    OT,

    Craig,

    Did you know about this ?….

    “The scheme for ‘hardening’ in labour camps (on penalty of loss of the dole) was devised by Stanley Baldwin’s Tory government, but was carried through by Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour government and expanded by the 1931 National Government. It was supported by the Trades Union Congress as well as by the Labour Party, and was opposed and exposed only by the National Unemployed Workers’ Movement, in which the Communist Party was the leading influence.”

    “Between 1929 and 1939, 25 secret concentration camps were built in the most remote areas of Britain and more than 200000 unemployed men were sent to these camps. The labour camps were conducted under military discipline and men were interned in the centres for three-month periods, working for up to nine hours a day breaking rocks, building roads and cutting down trees. In August 1939, in preparation for the war against Germany, the Ministry of Labour issued instructions that the managerial records of its own concentration camps should be weeded out, and much of the documentation was destroyed.”

    http://gdl.cdlr.strath.ac.uk/redclyde/redcly138.htm

    Looks like we are going along the same path at this moment in time with “Workfare”!!!.

  • Heretic

    “Who nominated me for the Arab League meeting? Well my name was put forward by this gentleman:”
    http://stephensizer.blogspot.co.uk/

    Another ‘establishment dissident’, this time with “controversial views on Christian Zionism”. The fact is that in a totalitarian society, by definition, the dissent has to be manufactured. And that’s all you and your chums are doing. This is nothing but a limited hangout.

  • kwabena

    Hi Craig, it appears your formula for computing the swing is not correct. For example, for the Takoradi constituency, the results are
    for 2008, NPP: 62.4, NDC: 33.3
    for 2012, NPP: 60.5, NDC: 38.2

    Hence, by my formula, the swing should be ((62.4 – 60.5) + (38.2 – 33.3)) / 2 = 3.4.
    However, you seem to be using just the drop in NPP’s percentage, which gives 62.4 – 60.5 = 1.9.
    If this is not an error, do you have a good reason for using this method?

  • Mary

    Craig. Rowan Williams is too pally with Sacks by half. They talked of their ‘shared experiences’ when bidding farewell.
    http://www.archbishopofcanterbury.org/articles.php/2704/archbishop-and-chief-rabbis-personal-farewell

    This letter sent at the end of 2010 received no reply from Williams although one of the six signatories was one of his bishops. Hague, to whom the same plea was sent, gave an unsatisfactory response. Mr Aziz is a Chaldean Cathlolic. He is still alive although ill and is now 76.

    The sentencing to death of Tariq Aziz, formerly Foreign Secretary to the Republic of Iraq

    Your Grace,

    We write as citizens of the UK and as fellow humans. We plead that you seek clemency for this man who represented the interests of Iraq abroad. Our main reasons are:-

    1.The present government lacks full legitimacy, so the lawfulness of its courts might not be sound. We note that the Supreme Iraqi Criminal Tribunal, which tried him, was set up by the Coalition Provisional Authority ie by the occupation forces.

    The man has been incarcerated since April 2003.

    He is old at 74 years and ill. The BBC reported in January this year that he had suffered a stroke {http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/8464370.stm}

    How will the agony and the slaughter in Iraq be healed by hooding and hanging this man?

    We are reinforced in our pleading by these clear words in HMG Death Penalty Strategy: October 2010.

    {http://www.fco.gov.uk/resources/en/pdf/global-issues/human-rights/death-penalty-strat-october-2010}

    Quote from Executive Summary

    ‘Why is abolition of the death penalty important? Promoting human rights and democracy is a priority for the UK. We oppose the death penalty in all circumstances as a matter of principle.’

    and under ‘Our Vision’

    ‘1. The UK cares about the death penalty because: Promoting human rights and democracy overseas is a priority for HMG. The UK opposes the death penalty in all circumstances as a matter of principle because it undermines human dignity; there is no conclusive evidence of its deterrent value; and any miscarriage of justice leading to its imposition is irreversible and irreparable.’

    We thank you for hearing our plea.

    Yours sincerely

    ……

  • craig Post author

    Kwabena,

    You are making a common mistake. The swing is 50% of the change between the parties (if 1.7% switch from one party to another the net change will be 3.4%. The swing is 1.7%)

    So you are making the right calculation but you have to take 50% of your final figure to get the swing.

  • Heretic

    “Just watch this for five minutes then tell me why Ghana is undemocratic or failed:”

    I have said neither. I have said that you are giving Western ‘democratic credentials’ to Ghana, which you are.

    I’ve also pointed out that you have financial interests in that country that shadow those of Western megacorps (minerals and energy), which you do. You also claim to know both main candidates well.

    I suggest that both main candidates are in fact fully supported by the UK and that your blog entries, in which you have revealed a vested interest in promoting Ghana, are part of a larger effort to legitimise the election and whichever candidate gets in.

    On a personal level you are doing it for your financial interests which happen to coincide on a higher level with the interests of UK plc. Which is pretty much the modus operandi of the ruling class in societies the world over.

  • kwabena

    My formula takes 50% of the net change. As you can see in my previous comment, I divide the final result by 2.

    Anyway, I was wondering because I’m also tracking the results and wanted to be sure there wasn’t a typo anywhere.

  • craig Post author

    Kwabena,

    Apologies I didn’t see you had done that. I will go back and check for Takoradi.

    What do you think? It looks to me that JM will probably get just over 50% on the first round. The swings in the west, north and brong ahafo seem to point that way? I was sleeping from 7am to 1pm so I still have looked at little in Accra – what do you see there?

  • Heretic

    “A tight race is expected between President John Mahama and Nana Akufo-Addo in the new oil producer – one of the world’s fastest-growing economies… Whoever wins will oversee the continued oil-fuelled spending boom in the coming years…. Ghana is seen by many observers as model for democracy in Africa.”
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20631933

    Not impartial observers mind, just those with vested financial interests.

    2 parties + tight race = Western style elections, i.e. either candidate is fine by megacorp plc, your vote is just to make *you* feel better.

  • craig Post author

    Heretic

    1) Due to my previous career I have many friends in very interesting positions. That is no secret – it is what makes my blog interesting to many.

    2) My business interests in Ghana are not connected to any multinational – except as a customer for equipment. The two companies I chair are both heavily majority Ghanaian owned.

    3) They both have precisely the goal of allowing a greater Ghanaian participation in industries which have been dominated by multinationals with little benefit to Ghana or Ghanaians. We have, for example, completed the only power station constructed only by indigenous companies.

    4) most of my time in Ghana is spent on unremunerated work for NGOs, universities, media etc and unremunerated advice to government.

    5) you are still making plain inferences that Ghana is in some way undemocratic. But why you have not stated.

    6) you seem to argue that a blog is only valid in some sense if it is written by a person with no financial interests of any kind – presumably unemployed or a waged employee – and who does not know anybody in politics anywhere. Otherwise it is “Establishment”.

    This blog has never pretended to be written by such a person. If it offends your notions of purity, please just go away.

  • kwabena

    I’m a little behind on the results too but the ones I have now don’t have enough input from the North to predict the trend there. However, there is enough representation from Ashanti and Volta pointing to Mahama erasing some of Akufo-Addo’s advantage over Atta-Mills in the first round of 2008. That is, it appears that even though neither of them will win the required 50% + 1, the gap between NPP and NDC in the first round will reduce from the 1.5 it was in 2008.

    I await more results to make a better prediction.

  • craig Post author

    Kwabena,

    Thanks. It is going to be very close but it looks to me at the minute like Mahama will just clear the 50%. Going to crunch some more numbers.

  • Heretic

    “This blog has never pretended to be written by such a person.”

    Unfortunately you claim to be a “human rights activist” at the top of every page but are tacitly supporting the rights of Western interests, namely energy and mineral companies, to appropriate the wealth of Ghana for themselves. Any Fule Kno That where Western mega-corps go human right quickly vanish.

    When Ghana was under the influence of the Chinese it was just another African tin-pot dictatorship according to the Western world. Now that it is under the influence of the West it is being promoted as a blossoming democracy. The facts are that in Ghana nothing has changed in terms of the ideals you promote, namely democracy and corruption. The bungs, bribes and paybacks just go to different people.

    Why don’t you do a piece in support of the human rights of Nigerians next time?

  • Venecremos

    3) They both have precisely the goal of allowing a greater Ghanaian participation in industries which have been dominated by multinationals with little benefit to Ghana or Ghanaians. We have, for example, completed the only power station constructed only by indigenous companies.

    That sounds like a worthy cause Craig. Developing the indigenous economic independence of Ghana and providing an alternative to the multinationals. Anything that furthers that cause is progressive in my book. Best wishes for your endeavors.

    Meanwhile I see that Robert Fisk is back on form today in the Indy exposing the hypocrisy of the western “humanitarian” interventionists’ clamour over Assad’s chemical weapons (WMD anyone?). I seem to recall that Britain was the first to use chemical weapons in WW1 against the Germans. And aren’t Britain’s nuclear weapons a form of (the ultimate) chemical weaponry?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/syria-bashar-alassad-and-the-truth-about-chemical-weapons-and-who-may-or-may-not-have-them-8393539.html

  • Venecremos

    And I gather that Assad’s chemical WMD can reach London in 45 minutes via the No 43 bus from Damascus central bus station.

  • Heretic

    Heard it all before you see. When oil was discovered in Nigeria it was supposed to be the dawn of a new era for them until Nigeria’s political parties agreed to demanded a fair price from Western corps, who immediately then set about starting a civil war, by which they installed a military dictatorship that exists until today. Ken Saro Wiwa was a Nigerian human rights activist who was murdered by Shell UK in 1995.

    Todays two candidates are puppets of the same Western corps, as Craig himself put it:-

    “Ghana will be in extremely good hands in 2013-17 whatever the outcome.”

    That’s democracy folks!

  • craig Post author

    Heretic

    I knew Ken Saro Wiwa. I have written quite a bit on the oil companies devastation of Nigeria – read The Catholic Orangemen. And my activities in Ghana are geared precisely towards preventing the continued rip-off of its mineral resources by multinationals – and increasingly by China too. I have been writing in the Ghanaian media about the state’s inalienable right to its mineral resources and the need to revisit the unfair agreements multinationals have gained.

    You have no idea what you are talking about. I don’t know what your motive is for writing this stream of lies about me, but fuck off.

  • craig Post author

    Venceremos

    The power station we built is a state-owned public utility, against the direct injunction of the World Bank/IMF that all new power stations should be privately owned – ie a rip off by western or Chinese capital. It is an achievement of which I am very proud.

  • Fred

    “You have no idea what you are talking about. I don’t know what your motive is for writing this stream of lies about me, but fuck off.”

    IMHO I believe it is down to cognitive dissonance, how someone copes with reality not matching their beliefs.

    I get it a lot on forums, especially over the Israel/Palestine issues, I post the facts then get called an anti Semitic conspiracy theorist as if that makes what I say any the less true.

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