Strong Swing to Mahama in Western region

by craig on December 8, 2012 7:59 am in Uncategorized

There are fairly uniform swings to John Mahama all over the Western region:

Suaman 4.7% to NDC
Essikadu/Ketan 3.1% to NDC
Takoradi 1.9% to NDC
Sekondi 4.5% to NDC
Shama 2.5% to NDC

It looks like Mahama’s powerful showing in the West and the North might get him home, unless Akuffo-Addo performs very well in Accra. But not much evidence in from Accra yet.

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  1. I wrote to the BBC about their error here.
    ‘Mr Akufo-Addo draws much of his support from urban areas and among members of his Ashanti community.’ using the comments box below this article.


    It has not been corrected nor was there any acknowledgement!

    There must now be a national database of citizens’ fingerprints coupled with facial recognition. Did the people want that? What was wrong with the old system of using an indelible ink on a finger?

    The suppliers provided the fingerprint system plus facial recognition. Nice work. Coming to the UK soon?

    Korean. {}

  2. Anyone reading the last few posts from Craig could be forgiven for thinking he is just another ‘establishment dissident’.

    He claims that he is now an ‘outsider’ yet gets invited along to all expenses paid Arab League events (who nominated him?).

    He is busy giving ‘democratic’ credentials to Ghana, where corruption is rife and Craig has financial interests in their Gold and Energy. He even candidly admits to knowing the two leading candidates.

    Come one people, wise up.

  3. “Ghana ranked 124th out of 177 countries on the index of failed states.”

  4. Who nominated me for the Arab League meeting? Well my name was put forward by this gentleman:

    I rather doubt your expertise on Ghana. Corruption exists there, as everywhere, but is probably less rife than in the UK.

  5. Heretic,

    you are tiresome and not very bright.

    “Ghana ranked 124th out of 177 countries on the index of failed states.” The most failed state is number 1, Ghana is 124th, ie not a failed state at all.

    Just watch this for five minutes then tell me why Ghana is undemocratic or failed:

  6. Heretic ought to be going after Hague. The little sh*t is in Bahrain toadying around the oppressors-in-charge.

    Stephen Sizer is a honourable man for whom I and many many others have the highest regard. Not many of his calling speak out on injustice. Not even Archbishops of Canterbury.

  7. Mary,

    Actually I had a lot of respect for Rowan Williams. That will upset Heretic further.

  8. Is he not repellent?

    UK Foreign Secretary attends Bahrain security forum

    He has been hyping up the lie about Syrian chemical weapons too.

  9. Transparency International is actually a ‘perception index’ and people talking up Ghana’s democratic credentials, like you, are skewing it’s position even further.

    As far as I can Ghana as just another potential ‘in’ on African resources, namely minerals and energy, both of which you have a financial interest yourself in that country. You also know both leading candidates.

    Just saying, if perception is everything then this is not looking good for you.

  10. OT,


    Did you know about this ?….

    “The scheme for ‘hardening’ in labour camps (on penalty of loss of the dole) was devised by Stanley Baldwin’s Tory government, but was carried through by Ramsay MacDonald’s Labour government and expanded by the 1931 National Government. It was supported by the Trades Union Congress as well as by the Labour Party, and was opposed and exposed only by the National Unemployed Workers’ Movement, in which the Communist Party was the leading influence.”

    “Between 1929 and 1939, 25 secret concentration camps were built in the most remote areas of Britain and more than 200000 unemployed men were sent to these camps. The labour camps were conducted under military discipline and men were interned in the centres for three-month periods, working for up to nine hours a day breaking rocks, building roads and cutting down trees. In August 1939, in preparation for the war against Germany, the Ministry of Labour issued instructions that the managerial records of its own concentration camps should be weeded out, and much of the documentation was destroyed.”

    Looks like we are going along the same path at this moment in time with “Workfare”!!!.

  11. “Who nominated me for the Arab League meeting? Well my name was put forward by this gentleman:”

    Another ‘establishment dissident’, this time with “controversial views on Christian Zionism”. The fact is that in a totalitarian society, by definition, the dissent has to be manufactured. And that’s all you and your chums are doing. This is nothing but a limited hangout.

  12. ‘Controversial views on Christian Zionism’ that are not actually in the least bit ‘controversial’ – unless you are a member of the Likud party.

    As I said, manufactured dissent.

  13. Hi Craig, it appears your formula for computing the swing is not correct. For example, for the Takoradi constituency, the results are
    for 2008, NPP: 62.4, NDC: 33.3
    for 2012, NPP: 60.5, NDC: 38.2

    Hence, by my formula, the swing should be ((62.4 – 60.5) + (38.2 – 33.3)) / 2 = 3.4.
    However, you seem to be using just the drop in NPP’s percentage, which gives 62.4 – 60.5 = 1.9.
    If this is not an error, do you have a good reason for using this method?

  14. Craig. Rowan Williams is too pally with Sacks by half. They talked of their ‘shared experiences’ when bidding farewell.

    This letter sent at the end of 2010 received no reply from Williams although one of the six signatories was one of his bishops. Hague, to whom the same plea was sent, gave an unsatisfactory response. Mr Aziz is a Chaldean Cathlolic. He is still alive although ill and is now 76.

    The sentencing to death of Tariq Aziz, formerly Foreign Secretary to the Republic of Iraq

    Your Grace,

    We write as citizens of the UK and as fellow humans. We plead that you seek clemency for this man who represented the interests of Iraq abroad. Our main reasons are:-

    1.The present government lacks full legitimacy, so the lawfulness of its courts might not be sound. We note that the Supreme Iraqi Criminal Tribunal, which tried him, was set up by the Coalition Provisional Authority ie by the occupation forces.

    The man has been incarcerated since April 2003.

    He is old at 74 years and ill. The BBC reported in January this year that he had suffered a stroke {}

    How will the agony and the slaughter in Iraq be healed by hooding and hanging this man?

    We are reinforced in our pleading by these clear words in HMG Death Penalty Strategy: October 2010.


    Quote from Executive Summary

    ‘Why is abolition of the death penalty important? Promoting human rights and democracy is a priority for the UK. We oppose the death penalty in all circumstances as a matter of principle.’

    and under ‘Our Vision’

    ‘1. The UK cares about the death penalty because: Promoting human rights and democracy overseas is a priority for HMG. The UK opposes the death penalty in all circumstances as a matter of principle because it undermines human dignity; there is no conclusive evidence of its deterrent value; and any miscarriage of justice leading to its imposition is irreversible and irreparable.’

    We thank you for hearing our plea.

    Yours sincerely


  15. Kwabena,

    You are making a common mistake. The swing is 50% of the change between the parties (if 1.7% switch from one party to another the net change will be 3.4%. The swing is 1.7%)

    So you are making the right calculation but you have to take 50% of your final figure to get the swing.

  16. “Just watch this for five minutes then tell me why Ghana is undemocratic or failed:”

    I have said neither. I have said that you are giving Western ‘democratic credentials’ to Ghana, which you are.

    I’ve also pointed out that you have financial interests in that country that shadow those of Western megacorps (minerals and energy), which you do. You also claim to know both main candidates well.

    I suggest that both main candidates are in fact fully supported by the UK and that your blog entries, in which you have revealed a vested interest in promoting Ghana, are part of a larger effort to legitimise the election and whichever candidate gets in.

    On a personal level you are doing it for your financial interests which happen to coincide on a higher level with the interests of UK plc. Which is pretty much the modus operandi of the ruling class in societies the world over.

  17. My formula takes 50% of the net change. As you can see in my previous comment, I divide the final result by 2.

    Anyway, I was wondering because I’m also tracking the results and wanted to be sure there wasn’t a typo anywhere.

  18. Kwabena,

    Apologies I didn’t see you had done that. I will go back and check for Takoradi.

    What do you think? It looks to me that JM will probably get just over 50% on the first round. The swings in the west, north and brong ahafo seem to point that way? I was sleeping from 7am to 1pm so I still have looked at little in Accra – what do you see there?

  19. “A tight race is expected between President John Mahama and Nana Akufo-Addo in the new oil producer – one of the world’s fastest-growing economies… Whoever wins will oversee the continued oil-fuelled spending boom in the coming years…. Ghana is seen by many observers as model for democracy in Africa.”

    Not impartial observers mind, just those with vested financial interests.

    2 parties + tight race = Western style elections, i.e. either candidate is fine by megacorp plc, your vote is just to make *you* feel better.

  20. Heretic

    1) Due to my previous career I have many friends in very interesting positions. That is no secret – it is what makes my blog interesting to many.

    2) My business interests in Ghana are not connected to any multinational – except as a customer for equipment. The two companies I chair are both heavily majority Ghanaian owned.

    3) They both have precisely the goal of allowing a greater Ghanaian participation in industries which have been dominated by multinationals with little benefit to Ghana or Ghanaians. We have, for example, completed the only power station constructed only by indigenous companies.

    4) most of my time in Ghana is spent on unremunerated work for NGOs, universities, media etc and unremunerated advice to government.

    5) you are still making plain inferences that Ghana is in some way undemocratic. But why you have not stated.

    6) you seem to argue that a blog is only valid in some sense if it is written by a person with no financial interests of any kind – presumably unemployed or a waged employee – and who does not know anybody in politics anywhere. Otherwise it is “Establishment”.

    This blog has never pretended to be written by such a person. If it offends your notions of purity, please just go away.

  21. I’m a little behind on the results too but the ones I have now don’t have enough input from the North to predict the trend there. However, there is enough representation from Ashanti and Volta pointing to Mahama erasing some of Akufo-Addo’s advantage over Atta-Mills in the first round of 2008. That is, it appears that even though neither of them will win the required 50% + 1, the gap between NPP and NDC in the first round will reduce from the 1.5 it was in 2008.

    I await more results to make a better prediction.

  22. Kwabena,

    Thanks. It is going to be very close but it looks to me at the minute like Mahama will just clear the 50%. Going to crunch some more numbers.

  23. “This blog has never pretended to be written by such a person.”

    Unfortunately you claim to be a “human rights activist” at the top of every page but are tacitly supporting the rights of Western interests, namely energy and mineral companies, to appropriate the wealth of Ghana for themselves. Any Fule Kno That where Western mega-corps go human right quickly vanish.

    When Ghana was under the influence of the Chinese it was just another African tin-pot dictatorship according to the Western world. Now that it is under the influence of the West it is being promoted as a blossoming democracy. The facts are that in Ghana nothing has changed in terms of the ideals you promote, namely democracy and corruption. The bungs, bribes and paybacks just go to different people.

    Why don’t you do a piece in support of the human rights of Nigerians next time?

  24. A real human rights activist.

  25. 3) They both have precisely the goal of allowing a greater Ghanaian participation in industries which have been dominated by multinationals with little benefit to Ghana or Ghanaians. We have, for example, completed the only power station constructed only by indigenous companies.

    That sounds like a worthy cause Craig. Developing the indigenous economic independence of Ghana and providing an alternative to the multinationals. Anything that furthers that cause is progressive in my book. Best wishes for your endeavors.

    Meanwhile I see that Robert Fisk is back on form today in the Indy exposing the hypocrisy of the western “humanitarian” interventionists’ clamour over Assad’s chemical weapons (WMD anyone?). I seem to recall that Britain was the first to use chemical weapons in WW1 against the Germans. And aren’t Britain’s nuclear weapons a form of (the ultimate) chemical weaponry?

  26. And I gather that Assad’s chemical WMD can reach London in 45 minutes via the No 43 bus from Damascus central bus station.

  27. Heard it all before you see. When oil was discovered in Nigeria it was supposed to be the dawn of a new era for them until Nigeria’s political parties agreed to demanded a fair price from Western corps, who immediately then set about starting a civil war, by which they installed a military dictatorship that exists until today. Ken Saro Wiwa was a Nigerian human rights activist who was murdered by Shell UK in 1995.

    Todays two candidates are puppets of the same Western corps, as Craig himself put it:-

    “Ghana will be in extremely good hands in 2013-17 whatever the outcome.”

    That’s democracy folks!

  28. Heretic

    I knew Ken Saro Wiwa. I have written quite a bit on the oil companies devastation of Nigeria – read The Catholic Orangemen. And my activities in Ghana are geared precisely towards preventing the continued rip-off of its mineral resources by multinationals – and increasingly by China too. I have been writing in the Ghanaian media about the state’s inalienable right to its mineral resources and the need to revisit the unfair agreements multinationals have gained.

    You have no idea what you are talking about. I don’t know what your motive is for writing this stream of lies about me, but fuck off.

  29. Venceremos

    The power station we built is a state-owned public utility, against the direct injunction of the World Bank/IMF that all new power stations should be privately owned – ie a rip off by western or Chinese capital. It is an achievement of which I am very proud.

  30. “You have no idea what you are talking about. I don’t know what your motive is for writing this stream of lies about me, but fuck off.”

    IMHO I believe it is down to cognitive dissonance, how someone copes with reality not matching their beliefs.

    I get it a lot on forums, especially over the Israel/Palestine issues, I post the facts then get called an anti Semitic conspiracy theorist as if that makes what I say any the less true.

  31. Craig,

    I see that you are rattled, the thing is you have put yourself in this position.

    I’ll be generous and say perhaps you are not a willing tool of Western imperialism but are simply ignorant of how it may be using you for it’s own ends, i.e. by blindly promoting both candidates and the process in what is clearly a Western ‘style’ election, fully supported materially and ideologically by the UK and US.

    Perhaps all those old friends and acquaintances from the office are simply taking advantage of your gul.. good nature.

  32. I have not lied. Anything I have said is either a fact or an opinion. Show me one single lie. If you disagree with an opinion that’s fine but I’m not a liar.

    I haven’t risen to the bait of insults and instead have been diligently asking you to clarify the reason for your blind support for Ghanaian ‘democracy’ and the candidates. As you have failed to address any of my reservation I can only draw the fact based conclusions that I have

    I am not interested in defending myself because that is your job on this blog and you are failing. Don’t blame me for that.

  33. I have been searching for info about Friday’s huge demonstrations in Cairo and can find little or nothing in terms of info, footage or photos in the Guardian, Indy, AJE, PressTV, RT, al Ahram. There appears to be a conspiracy of silence in the Western, Russian, Iranian and Middle Eastern English language media. Why are they playing this down? What are they afraid of?

    I had to go to the Trotskyist left news sites to get any detail. Here is an interesting article on the the complexities of the movement that is developing against the regime on the Socialist Worker site:

    And here is an article on the Trotskyist World Socialist Website:

    EXTRACT from it:

    Hundreds of thousands of workers and youth defied a protest ban in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, and marched to the Ittihadeya Presidential Palace. Protesters broke through barbed wire barricades and concrete walls erected by the army in the streets leading to the palace. They chanted “Oh army, oh army, you are the right hand of the Brotherhood, you are cowards”, “Down with military rule”, and “Down, down Mohamed Mursi.”

    Thwarting Mursi’s attempt to crush further protests at his palace, protesters passed through rows of soldiers and tanks stationed around the building. They surrounded the palace, chanting: “Revolution is back again.” In scenes recalling the early days of the Egyptian Revolution and the initial working-class uprising against President Hosni Mubarak, demonstrators climbed on tanks and sprayed slogans on armored vehicles.

    Hundreds of protesters marched to the Heliopolis Court, demanding the release of workers and youth detained since the brutal crackdown on Wednesday night, when the MB’s Islamist militias arrested and tortured protesters in collaboration with the police.

  34. And I received this email yesterday from the Trotskyist Socialist Party:

    Egypt: solidarity appeal

    Demand the immediate release of Ramy Sabry and all activists

    Read online here…

    Email the Egyptian Embassy in London: and, and cc to

    The Committee for a Workers’ International (CWI – international socialist organisation to which the Socialist Party is affiliated) strongly condemns the organised killing of the Leftist journalist Al Housseini Abou Dayf, and the kidnapping and torturing of activists by members of the Muslim Brotherhood during the mass protests against Mursi’s new constitution. We call on the immediate release of all the activists.

    The CWI has been following the recent events in Egypt and has been informed that among others, Ramy Sabry, a socialist activist and a fighter for workers’ rights, has been badly tortured and has been held for many hours by Muslim Brotherhood thugs despite his urgent need for medical assistance.

    We have also heard that Ramy along with other activists are going to be handed over in the next few hours and transferred to the police, who refused to act to stop their kidnapping and who refused to interfere to enforce their release.

    The reactionary Muslim Brotherhood, now in power, is in alliance with the same big business owners who backed Mubarak. The MB is carrying out the same policies of repression and attack on civil rights as Mubarak did before the revolution. The leadership of the Muslim Brotherhood has been exposed to the masses in the region and internationally for their reactionary agenda in their defence of big business interests, and their inability to offer any real change to the conditions faced by the Egyptian working class and the poor masses.

    The recent attacks on democratic and civil rights illustrate the nature of this reactionary government that is prepared to use fascistic thugs to repress and torture Left activists in the name of religion. The recent events illustrate once again the need to build an independent mass workers’ movement and a political workers’ alternative, to challenge the ruling class and to break with capitalism.

    The CWI demands the immediate release of Ramy Sabry and all the other activists and will do whatever we can to make sure that a campaign is being built in defence democratic rights and the right to organise as socialists, unionists and freedom activists.

  35. “I am not interested in defending myself because that is your job on this blog and you are failing. Don’t blame me for that.”

    Don’t you think these rules you are inventing are a little one sided?

    I don’t see that anyone should have to defend themselves but if you insist on making it so at least have the decency to include everyone.

  36. Venceremos

    The power station we built is a state-owned public utility, against the direct injunction of the World Bank/IMF that all new power stations should be privately owned – ie a rip off by western or Chinese capital. It is an achievement of which I am very proud.

    Excellent job. To hell with the IMF/World Bank. Graham Hancock (former journalist with the Economist) published a book called Lords of Poverty (Mandarin. 1991) which exposes the IMF/World Bank and its works. He begins it with this satirical poem by Ross Coggins:

    The Development Set by Ross Coggins

    Excuse me, friends, I must catch my jet
    I’m off to join the Development Set;
    My bags are packed, and I’ve had all my shots
    I have traveller’s checks and pills for the trots!

    The Development Set is bright and noble
    Our thoughts are deep and our vision global;
    Although we move with the better classes
    Our thoughts are always with the masses.

    In Sheraton Hotels in scattered nations
    We damn multi-national corporations;
    injustice seems easy to protest
    In such seething hotbeds of social rest.

    We discuss malnutrition over steaks
    And plan hunger talks during coffee breaks.
    Whether Asian floods or African drought,
    We face each issue with open mouth.

    We bring in consultants whose circumlocution
    Raises difficulties for every solution –
    Thus guaranteeing continued good eating
    By showing the need for another meeting.

    The language of the Development Set
    Stretches the English alphabet;
    We use swell words like “epigenetic”
    “Micro”, “macro”, and “logarithmetic”

    It pleasures us to be esoteric –
    It’s so intellectually atmospheric!
    And although establishments may be unmoved,
    Our vocabularies are much improved.

    When the talk gets deep and you’re feeling numb,
    You can keep your shame to a minimum:
    To show that you, too, are intelligent
    Smugly ask, “Is it really development?”

    Or say, “That’s fine in practice, but don’t you see:
    It doesn’t work out in theory!”
    A few may find this incomprehensible,
    But most will admire you as deep and sensible.

    Development set homes are extremely chic,
    Full of carvings, curios, and draped with batik.
    Eye-level photographs subtly assure
    That your host is at home with the great and the poor.

    Enough of these verses – on with the mission!
    Our task is as broad as the human condition!
    Just pray god the biblical promise is true:
    The poor ye shall always have with you.

    “Adult Education and Development” September 1976

    And I am just reading Mark Curtis’ superb book Unpeople: Britain’s Secret Human Rights Abuses (Vintage, 2004) which is the result of his extensive research in the National Archives at Kew. He slates British academics for failing to research and publish works about what these archives contain.

  37. Fred @4:01

    I was referring to defending myself against negative comment and insults such as “you are tiresome and not very bright”, not about defending the points I’m making – the proceeding paragraph did put that in context but perhaps it was not that clear.

    Posters being “tiresome and not very bright” is not an excuse for the blog owner to ignore a perfectly legitimate questions about a post made on his blog.

    I think anyone who reads the thread will see that there is a very valid point I making regarding transparency and openness.

  38. Heretic

    Your posts certainly look ad hominem to me.

    Craig seems to be posting a fairly unbiased report on the election in Ghana.

  39. “Your posts certainly look ad hominem to me.”

    That’s your opinion and one I would object to. Being rude or strident is not the same as insulting people and calling people names just because you can not adequately answer their questions.

    Even if I were making ad hominem’s what that to you? Craig is perfectly capable of insulting people and using ad hominem’s in his posts. Given that I’m sure he can (and should) speak up for himself and explain his blind faith in Ghanaian elections and the candidates – both of which are materially and ideologically supported by the US and UK. Craig even said it doesn’t matter who wins.

    He needs to show a bit more impartiality if he is to convince people his primary concern in this is ‘human rights’ and not his financial interest and friendship with the two candidates.

    [Mod/Jon: posted as “Bing Bong, Ding Dong!” but in fact this is “Heretic”]

  40. The big point here is that Craig is using this blog to give “democratic credentials” to these elections.

    These blog entries will be picked up by the likes of Transparency International as evidence that the ‘perception’ of the elections was fair and just, regardless of whether they are or not, which will be like a self-fulfilling prophesy. Craig can say his investments in African minerals and energy are sound because the perception (which he helped create) is that Ghana is not corrupt.

    Also, anyone that believes (like Craig) that democratic countries naturally evolve to a two party state with candidates of indistinguishable policies is a schmuck. This is clearly the most efficient way of installing a per-selected leader and convincing the people that they chose them.

    [Mod/Jon: posted as “Bing Bong, Ding Dong!” but in fact this is “Heretic”]

  41. Well now Ding Dong you seem to be reading a lot more into what Craig wrote than I have seen. It’s the fact that people are voting that makes the elections democratic and the observers who decide if they were fair. Do you have any evidence that they aren’t? Apart from the fact that whoever wins isn’t going to make too much difference to the price of potatoes that is because personally I see that as a good thing.

  42. Craig is bloody good source of information and whoever agrees to give his testimonies credence, good work! He is supposed to keep tight lipped in case anyone takes note – hah! Bing Bong Hong Kong Phooeee!

  43. English Knight

    9 Dec, 2012 - 5:13 am

    Craig that you are an ardent Ghana lover comes through very clearly. Now if you could be a prophet enough to convince the victors to share the oil “loot” with the losers equitably, population proportions, affirmative action, oil region local rights n all, you will have saved them from a usual oil civil war, 10 years from now. A metaphysical inoculation against the oil curse is the mandatory 25% tithe prescribed on treasure buried underground. But will Chief Awon Mor-Nooky instead revert to the thousand year tradition of having one well oiled wife for each day of the month, once the loot is in full gush!!

  44. I see that a number of Heretic’s comments have been removed to improve Craig’s position in the debate.

    Of particular interest was the post where Heretic pointed out why Ghana’s ranking was unrealistic and how Craig’s posts (along with BBC news stories etc.) will directly influence Transparency International’s ranking of them, further exaggerating their position on the index.

    Understand the implications of this in terms of how a ‘third world, tin-pot dictatorship’ becomes a ‘blossoming beacon of democracy’ in Africa simply by holding elections that are materially and ideologically backed by the UK and US with 2 candidates that hold almost identical positions, i.e. pro-Western.

    “Ghana will be in extremely good hands in 2013-17 whatever the outcome.” – Craig Murray has either acquired the gift of foresight or has failed to heed the lessons of history and should caution against such misplaced optimism, let alone openly promote it.

  45. Alex Thomson of Channel4News deserves credit for this blog post

    (of course if we were being given the truth on a regular basis, by our journalists, it wouldn’t be worth mentioning)

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