Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322

I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.

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322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • Cryptonym

    As it was 1996, the Labour politician must have then been a shadow cabinet member, is seriously litigitous over mainstream press exposure of his role though it is a matter of public record, he has inexplicably risen much higher since, to the head of great killing machine, despite such bad judgement and culpability; Hamilton had connections with at least one high profile Thatcher-era Scottish Conservative politician too. Though these are such serious, damning and curious allegations, several disparate articles, from different angles on so many web sites concur in many details. I do not expect even the 100-year sealed information to contain anything other some superficial gloss of the affair which it seems was not only preventable but facilitated.

    As airguns are to be banned/licensed in future, the seemingly unexceptional licensing in rural areas of shotguns to minors – the spawn of the landed gentry – is wildly inconsistent.

  • John Goss


    13 Dec, 2012 – 9:35 pm. I linked that story of torture in my blog (click on my blue name under the silhouette icon) which also used a link that Uzbek in the UK posted about Gulnara Karimova. Craig Murray gets a plug too. One of the things that struck me was that two cases of rendition and torture (due to CIA/American involvement) were decided on the same day. There may even have been more worldwide for all I know. My guess is that this was engineered. Both cases were of international importance but it made it only possible to report on the national one, so the other got lost. At least the Guardian got the foreign one in the public domain. Media manipulation is appalling!

  • Arbed

    For Clark, John Goss and those interested, more details on the Swedish Army Intelligence shutdown of the Swedish Freedom of Information sites requesting FOIs regarding the Julian Assange case:


    Swedish law says FOIs should be released within one week of request but, strange, the Swedish authorities claim to have no information at all to release concerning Julian Assange and Maria Häljebo Kjellstrand, the on-duty prosecutor who issued the initial arrest warrant for “rape” on 20 August 2010 – before either woman had been formally interviewed – and who happens to be married to someone who works in Swedish Justice Minister Beatrice Ask’s office.

    Both sites seem to have been shut down as soon as they posted documents revealing the level of censorship they were under:

    “We’ve received documents from a similar shutdown of another Swedish blog where we can see in black on white which individuals ands which Swedish agencies are responsible. This blog was also hosted by Blog.com.”

    “So we’re convinced we’ve been watched for quite some time by the Swedish cabinet and their friends, and we’re making this information public for the first time.”

    “The blog was most likely shut down at the behest of Swedish army intel, the government, and the foreign office. They were all exposed in the documents uploaded immediately prior to the shutdown.”

  • Dreoilin

    Thanks John. Will go there shortly.

    Mary, there were a lot of tweets last night about Obama’s crodocile tears. But not all from our perspective.
    Many were from anti-gun-control types who claim that he will “use” this tragedy to “take away our guns”. But they’ve been claiming that for years.

  • Dreoilin

    “Though these are such serious, damning and curious allegations, several disparate articles, from different angles on so many web sites concur in many details.”

    I’ll Google for those, unless you happen to have links handy.

    How can they simply seal information for 100 years? Do they even bother to give reasons, no matter how spurious?

  • Mary

    The Dr Kelly papers were sealed up for 70 years after his death.

    ‘Although suicide was officially accepted as the cause of death, some medical experts have their doubts, suggesting that the evidence does not back this up. In January 2010, Lord Hutton ordered that all files relating to the post mortem remain sealed for 70 years from the date of his death, for reasons that have not been explained.’

  • craig Post author

    Ooooerr Missus, I have a great deal of time for Peter Oborne. You don’t have to agree with everything someone says or does to admire them.

  • Mary

    Fred I had read of this before but not in such a detailed, well written and completely plausible way. What a stench and what an establishment cover up. The disgusting perverts should have had some ‘porridge’ not given titles and positions.

    The pertinent paragraphs are these towards the end. The use of NATO headed notepaper was very telling of an implied threat.

    ‘Anyone challenging Sir James Winston Vincent Savile, OBE, KCSG, would have felt the full weight of the establishment come to bear on them. Just as I did when I asked Lord George Robertson of Port Ellen, the three simple questions I had asked the others, about what he knew of a group called the “Friends of QVS” and the presence of Thomas Hamilton at the school, and allegations of bullying and abuse.

    Instead of a polite response from Lord George, he wrote to me on NATO headed paper stating that he knew of no inquiry into any allegations, considered my letter an impertinence, would not be answering any questions and would copy this response to the Chief Constable of Central Scotland Police. I firmly responded to this aggresive response.’

    Mr Minogue deserves credit for taking the matter as far as he did and for his bravery as does the master. The truth will out eventually.

  • Jon

    @Oooerrr Missus – please stick to your original handle of Ginger Nuts. You’ve used five or six different handles in the last few months, which in general can give rise to the impression that a poster wishes to operate sock-puppets. I am sure it’s not true in your case, but notwithstanding, please stick to one name. Thanks.

  • John Goss

    Thanks Arbed. As well as taking down important sites it is very worrying that all the big financial institutions have removed practically all means of contributing to Wikileaks (95%). However, and I got this from the Rixtep blog, there is now a legitimate way of contributing. So if you want Wikileaks to continue its important work give them a little Christmas present as I have just done at Beat the Blockade.


  • Dreoilin

    Thanks for the link. I knew none of this before. Shocking – and apparently well researched.

    I knew of the sealing of the Dr Kelly papers. But given the Iraq connection, I assume they could claim “national security” or some such bullshit. I don’t know what they can claim in relation to Dunblane.

  • Arbed

    Here’s the official press statement of the censored Swedish FOI site Undermattan, who have done so much to uncover documents relating to the Julian Assange case:


    and here’s the SMS messages between the Swedish prosecutor Marianne Ny’s office and Assange’s then-lawyer Bjorn Hurtig obtained by Undermattan that the press release is referring to. Two lots:




    It would be wonderful if any kindly Swedish-speaking visitors to Craig’s blog could provide us with an English translation of the significant parts of this correspondence.

    Cross-posting this comment onto the “Why I’m convinced Anne Ardin is a Liar” thread, if it’s felt that’s a more appropriate place to put any translation:


  • guano


    The non-Syrian accents tell us nothing. The Shi’a bias of press TV is one-sided.

    What is possible is that whoever committed these atrocities managed to convince themselves that they had been betrayed to their enemies when they were only trying to take control of a locality in a peaceful manner.

    They project their own betrayal of the rules of engagement in war in Islam onto the victims of their domination. Then they execute their victims for their perceived betrayal. That is the main reason to avoid war at all costs, that no-one is thinking straight when they are terrified.

    The blame for war taking place is entirely on Assad, by continuing to promise but not deliver liberalisation of his uncle’s tyranny.

  • English Knight

    @Guano – The Syria Sunni terrorists and deluded khilafatists (including you) are missing a very simple point, the al-sauds/wahhabis/qatri financing and driving the Syrian carnage are as far removed from Islam as HALAL PORK SCRATCHINGS ! TWICE the fakes have been saved by the mini skirted Christian soldiers piloting US helicopters in the Arabian peninsula, but dont remind the Wahhabi Grand Mufti who wants to ban all Churches in the peninsula. Their God and protector is NOT Allah, its “hadha amerikin Uncle Sam”, and they are paying billions to have his bases (CENTCOM,Bahrain,etc) protecting them 24/7 there is no need to bend down 5 times a day when Uncle Sam is around. BTW – where is the seed of Abu Bakr, Uthman & Umar (and Aisha,Talha & Zubair) today, are they cleaning the washrooms of the saud and qatari princes? All this MB, khilafat, etc delusion (and 5m Israeli control over 300 million Arabs) is only an echo of the falsehood that occurred after Gadir-e-Khum.

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    I often wonder why no quarter is given the rebels here, Guano. RT News and Press TV are Gospel, and the slant is quite apparent. Terrible deeds follow both camps, but when that hospital in Aleppo keeps being targeted, I get sick. Popular uprisings often breed violent cells of activists, and although there is no justification for brutality, it occurs.

  • Clark

    Arbed, 15 Dec, 11:14 am,

    thanks. It looks to me as though Undermatten.com was shut down by their web hosts, presumably due to pressure from the authorities. They need to find a new web host who will resist such pressure. They do not need to use a host in Sweden; it can be anywhere in the world. For instance, this blog is hosted in The Netherlands, to avoid libel threats under UK libel law.

  • Clark

    Arbed, 15 Dec, 4:01 pm,

    I’ve made copies of the scanned documents from your two links to slideshare.com.

    All: if you want copies, e-mail me and I’ll send them. The first link yielded twelve .jpg images. The second yielded fifteen. Compressed into a .zip file they come to 1888938 bytes.

  • guano

    English Knight

    My concept of an English Knight would be modelled on Gawain, whose concept of Romantic Love was well and truly French and Roman Catholic, the papal terrorists having removed the spiritual concept of God from Europe and replaced it with an unwinnable struggle between the mind and the flesh.

    I agree with you that Islam colluding with its enemies is pointless. Islam segregates the sexes in order to avoid temptation and it segregates the religions. ‘Make your soul content just with those who pray to their Lord day and night, seeking His face…’

    So-called Islamic companies and so-called Islamic politicians are determined to cross the border-lines of our faith, while there still exist in vast numbers ordinary Muslims who adhere to their faith. The loss of a Khaliphate was caused by this crossing of shari’ah boundaries and its restoration will come about their restoration, Muslim CEOs and politicians please note.

    This is not a dream but a divinely-revealed promise. What are you doing yourself to implement the conditions for the Khalifah? It is after all encumbent on all human beings to follow the prophet of their age, including those who are currently disobedient to God’s instructions because they have despaired of God’s promise.

    I agree with you that the existing khilafah is Uncle Sam, just as Gawain was French.

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