Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322


I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.


322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • nevermind

    Why should NI, having its own legislative parliament and running its own police, waste collections, judiciary, etc. be hanging on to the union jack frock.

    Time will tell whether those in Northern Ireland are really Irish or whether they are Scots in drag who can’t let go.

    Jeez all this fuss about a flag? how much more simple can the messages be to those on the street and please don’t tell us nobody got egged on to make a fuss.

    Could one assume that the propensity to create trouble is a genetic factor,after 400 years of havoc, should this not be a subject of a study and would the relevant doctor undertaking it need a personal body guard?

    So David Cameron has given to go ahead to fracking, the new attraction in Lancashire ruining the springs of the Bowland Trough and adding that extra bit of special interest, having some earth tremor can be terrifically helpful in cracking an egg.

  • nevermind

    Steve, Israel is our chum, more important than any of the EU countries. They run our foreign policy for us and have no intentions of letting go of the purse strings that lure our politicians.

    Only when the public, unwashed and politically inept/disinterested, realise that their future is determined by rogues and the establishment, the latter determines the size of the Schafott, and then start voting for local Independent candidates, the equation will change.

    But faith schools and academies, busy at indoctrinating our children, bless they are away at school, will make surwe this will not happen.

    @anode, great video, a bit misleading on the paint ball gun as it has no recoil, but very informative, something to do during long winter nights.

  • Steve Nell

    The worst of the lying was Mr Cameron insisting that ‘collusion’ between a disparate number of parties including the English Tory party, Irish unionist politicians, the UDF, the British Army and UK military intelligence to plan and execute the murder of a political opponent and then cover-up the crime from investigation is not a ‘over arching conspiracy’.

    Another disgusting abuse of language. A plague on you all.

  • Fred

    It’s only a friggin flag FFS.

    It ain’t worth nobody getting killed over.

    Just seen on the news they’re making air rifles illegal in Scotland because somebody got killed in Glasgow. Just look how many lives could be saved if they made flags illegal.

  • Habbabkuk

    “It’s only a friggin flag, FFS”

    Very true. But flags have great symbolic importance, whether you like it or not. That’s why every nation has one.

    There are some who could make the following points :

    1/. The symbolic importance of flags is obviously recognised by the nationalists on Belfast city council; were it not, why should they have asked for the Union flag to be flown only on certain occasions and – according to some of you here – for the Irish flag to be flown?

    2/. If poeple want to fly the flag of another country, then they should do so from their own houses or whatever, but not from public buildings. Is there any city or commune in Europe which flies the flag of another country, And please don’t come out with the examples of Catalonia or Flanders or Wallonia – the flag they fly is their OWN flag, not the flag of a neighbouring foreign country.

    OK, you can now let fly with your quibbles and diversions, off you go!

  • Fred

    Flags are things they use to shrink wrap people’s brains so they will go off and kill people who never did anything to them in places they never heard of.

    Then they use them as shrouds on their coffins when they get back.

    I can think of better things to worship.

  • Habbabkuk

    Fred – that’s a rather limited view of the rôle and significance of flags, isn’t it? But I understand that you’re trying to be polemical.

  • thatcrab

    It does a great disservice to Human Rights to describe Pat Finucane as a Human Rights lawyer. What did it in for him was probably his legal and moral support for, amongst other things -the perpetrators of the Corporals killings where two out of uniform soldiers suspected of spying on an IRA funeral from their car where dragged from it by a large crowd, stripped, beaten, pulverised -thrown over a high wall by the crowd, and taken off and shot to death by the top terrorists in mourning:

    The soldiers inside the car were both armed with Browning automatic pistols and Corporal Wood climbed part of the way out of a window,firing a shot in the air which briefly scattered the crowd.The television pictures showed the crowd surging back,however,some of them attacking the vehicle with a wheelbrace and a stepladder snatched from a photographer.The corporals were eventually pulled from the car and punched and kicked to the ground.They were then dragged into the nearby Casement Park sports ground where they were agin beaten,stripped to their underpants and socks and searched.According to republicans,an identification card which read ‘Herford’,a location in Germany,was mistaken for ‘Hereford’,the headquarters of the S.A.S..It appears this was important in sealing the fate of the soldiers.With the I.R.A. by now involved the corporals were further beaten and thrown over a high wall to be put into a waiting black taxi.It was driven off at speed,camera crews capturing its driver waving his fist in the air.

    The corporals were driven less than 200 yards to waste ground near Penny Lane,just off the main Andersonstown Road.There they were shot several times.Corporal Wood was shot six times,twice in the head and four times in the chest.He was also stabbed four times in the back of the neck and had multiple injuries to other parts of his body.Redemptorist priest Father Alec Reid,who was later to play a significant part in the peace process leading to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement,arrived on the scene.One of the most enduring pictures of the troubles shows him kneeling beside the almost naked bodies of the soldiers,his face distraught as he administered the last rites.The events of March 19,1988,lasted only 15 minutes but,because of the nature of the deaths and because much of the sequence was televised within hours,they are regarded among the most shocking in Northern Ireland’s recent history.

    http://loyalulster.150m.com/Corporals.html

    Isnt it a such a terrible terrible thing when ‘human rights lawyers’ get shot at breakfast time.

  • thatcrab

    Dreolin “I identify with the Palestinian people.”

    You know what it is like to be attacked by murderous criminals with undemocratic political claims to your Country consisting of a homeland myth based on “their peoples” suffering in history?

  • Clark

    I see that there is an unpleasant row in progress on this thread.

    If any of the participants wish to resolve the argument, you could try looking for things you agree about, and then proceed incrementally from there.

    If you don’t wish to find agreement, well, it’s none of my business in any case.

  • thatcrab

    No worries, my hairy arse is just offending the sensitiveness of a few connecting, pristinely pedicured, foots Clark.

  • Herbie

    Thatcrab

    I stand by my claim that the business, family and professional relationships that exist between ROI and Britain are much stronger and deeper than those between NI and Britain, and I don’t accept your view that the Unionist community’s desire to retain political links with the UK are evidence to contradict that fact.

  • nevermind

    Poor Margaret Moran is so depressed that she has to have a 2 year supervision order, not a word about her having to pay back the false claims of 53.000.

    The judge was wringing his hands saying that justice has to act according to the law, but some might think that she got away with it.

    Has she got away with it, was the judge too lenient?

    And Mr. Cameron is batting his Clogg sidekick away over drugs, like an ex smoker, he is adamant that cocaine use in the Bullington club will not be legalised.

    so sorry,skin up…..

  • Herbie

    I agree with Dreoilin and I’m not terribly impressed with the unending juridicial and territorial quibbles that are being made about NI. That don’t matter much in the grand scheme of things.

    What matters is that people of differing affiliations live together in relaive peace and harmony on the same soil. We’re not going to sort out our respective creation myths by debate. That only comes from people coming together as people. It’s not a legal thing.

    I think we made the best compromise we could in the circumstances and the vast majority of people in NI and ROI and Britain are happy to leave it at that, and get on with their lives.

    We should do that too.

    There are other peoples who are suffering much more from similar but ongoing and very violent tribal issues.

  • thatcrab

    NI might have a bit of gold to covet now, on top of compensation for rennaisance era conquests, the pain of the famine, and all the old loot of the brits empire –
    Dalradian Releases Further High Grade Drill Intercepts from the Curraghinalt Gold Deposit in Northern Ireland

    Herbie “I stand by my claim..” If you can’t check for me or the more substantial Nextus who wrote :”there are genealogical studies and surveys to back up the notion that a large proportion of the NI has far more familial, cultural and business links to the UK (particularly Scotland) than to the Republic. That’s one of the reasons why the political situation is so intractable” or Dreolin who commented “Hardly surprising when a large number of those ‘planted’ came from Scotland.” (300-400 years ago) …

    …Well all said and done, i wish you the best with it. I hate this bloody subject/situation and dont support everything im emboldened to say about it. But that claim you stand by is a basic untruth which you’d be best informed to check sometime.

  • Mary

    ‘There are other peoples who are suffering much more from similar but ongoing and very violent tribal issues.’

    Quite so Herbie.

    The IDF are bearing up Reuters cameramen now.
    http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4319794,00.html

    Also dreadful to know that teachers are providing food and/or money for food for British schoolchildren who have no packed lunch or money to buy lunch and that children have rickets in C21 ‘Great’ Britain.

  • Dreoilin

    ”there are genealogical studies and surveys to back up the notion that a large proportion of the NI has far more familial, cultural and business links to the UK (particularly Scotland) than to the Republic.”

    Thatcrab, that is a comment on NI links to the UK compared to its links to the Republic.

    It is *not* a comment on ROI links to the UK.

    Gone.

  • Clark

    Nevermind and Skinup, well, the Bullingdon Club wouldn’t want cocaine legalised, would they? Their whole point is to get away with prohibited things that lesser people would be punished for. It’s all about exercising and demonstrating privilege.

  • Herbie

    Thatcrab

    Yes. I hate it too. Lived with it so long…a bit tired of it now…thought it had been more or less sorted.

    Perhaps we’ll agree to disagree about whatever it is we disagree about on NI.

    The people are lovely though, on both sides (LOL), and the scenery is to die for.

    Just go fishing or walking or something, sing, dance, drink etc. Even talking together with our funny accents is enough to blind whatever difference we’re supposed to have.

    It’s our own wee home, and the less we shit in it the the more homely it will be.

    Happy Christmas to all!

  • Steve Nell

    Thatcrab: “It does a great disservice to Human Rights to describe Pat Finucane as a Human Rights lawyer.”

    “Finucane came to prominence due to successfully challenging the British Government over several important human rights cases in the 1980s”
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pat_Finucane_(solicitor)

    Thatcrab: “What did it in for him was probably his legal and moral support for, amongst other things -the perpetrators of the Corporals killings where two out of uniform soldiers suspected of spying on an IRA funeral”

    What did it in for him was that the UK Government conspired to have him murdered. Simple. Everything else you mention is (pretty obnoxious) mis-direction. He was shot in the face 12 time at close range in front of his wife and kids for nothing other than being competent at his job. He wasn’t a terrorist and he never killed anyone.

    Exactly what part of the report into the conspiracy (which is called ‘collusion’ for the sake of the report) are you having trouble accepting?

  • thatcrab

    Herbie and Dreolin: “It is *not* a comment on ROI links to the UK.”

    Then we accept the relationship, (~ = linkage)

    (NI~uk) is-greater-than NI~ROI

    And you propose/expect
    ROI~uk isgreaterthan (NI~uk)

    If the proposed is true then,
    ROI~uk must be greater than NI~ROI

    That is at least unusual, it would be easier to unify ROI with UK than NI with ROI!

    Thanks Herbie, i bow to your hospitality. Good on you.

    Dreolin “Gone.”
    I think your linking and a lot of your comments are great. Thanks for that, read you again.

  • thatcrab

    Steve Nell, that stuff i added is obnoxious, but not misdirection, those perpetrators where the mans clients, his family members and personal associates where convicted freedom fighting or terrorist killers, whichever inclined to describe them as. These are the exceptional circumstances around was in effect a state assassination. Bringing it up as the simply the murder of a human rights lawyer by british colusion with loyalists is just at most half of the story to consider. I put to you the other half. May it rest in peace…

  • Uzbek in the UK

    @ Mary

    About homelessness. The issue is extremely serious across Europe but especially in Britain. The housing reforms introduced by Thatcher and private housing market rush that followed led to unprecedented shortage of housing that resulted in extremely high speculative housing prices. Just few month before credit crunch most of London’s estate agencies were specialising on selling properties (for already speculative prices) and advising their clients that in just 6-8 months there will be guaranteed 10-15% increase in housing price. It was making bubbles in its purest. We all know what followed.

    The pity is that nowadays Tories are trying to sell us similar story. Every new agency seem to sell it as a very good news when housing prices go up. They call it positive market movements. This is without consideration that 15% of very people who are on mortgages (around 55% of UK households) are struggling to keep up with mortgage payments and are facing repossession within next 6-12 months.

    This indeed serves bankers and hedge funds very well. They lend us money, so that we can buy house for inflated price and pay them back for the rest of our lives (if we are lucky to have a job).

  • Phil

    Skinup 14 Dec, 2012 – 7:55 am
    “Sativex is not cannabis.”

    The ms forums have long been full of sufferers saying that savitex is useless compared to cannabis.

    Another example of apparently efficacious free medication: Nothing peddled by the pharmas seems to compete with hallucinogens when it comes to treating cluster headaches. Of course this is largely anecdotal because studies are opposed.

    It is unfortunate people must criminalize themselves to relieve acute chronic pain. But most unfortunately, some people live with pain rather than break laws against seed and mushroom consumption.

    http://clusterbustorg.com/?page_id=26

  • Mary

    Good riddance to bad rubbish.

    Israel Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman resigns
    As leader of the Yisrael Beitenu party, Avigdor Lieberman is one of Israel’s most powerful politicians

    Israeli FM charged over finances
    New Israeli right-wing bloc forms
    Netanyahu calls early Israel poll

    Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman has resigned after being charged with breach of trust following a long-running investigation.

    Mr Lieberman has also resigned as deputy prime minister, and said he would fight to clear his name of the charges.

    The case against him relates to a financial scandal dating back more than a decade.

    His resignation comes five weeks before Israel’s general election.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20731396#

    Most of them end up in the same way eg Olmert.

  • Phil

    I am seeing noticably increased numbers of rough sleepers in central london these last few months. I step outside and have to step over huddles.

    A local church are calling the police and removing benches to drive away the homeless. A local estate agent is petitioning residents to close down a hostel.

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