Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322

I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.

322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • Herbie


    “1/. Belfast is indeed part of the geographical entity called Ireland. But I’m afraid that Belfast and the six counties as a whole are more than “technically (your word) a part of the UK” – they are legally and constitutionally part of the UK. Do you agree, Dreoilin?”

    It’s a stupid question of little substance.

    Dreoilin is correct that the six counties are part of Ireland and she was correct to point out its technical relationship to the UK.

    Anyone who thinks or even attempts to suggest that NI is part of the UK in the way that Hampshire or Yorkshire or even Finchley are part of the UK is wrong. I’d suggest that your use of the words, “they are legally and constitutionally part of the UK” is an attempt to gloss over the very unique status that NI occupies within the UK.

    The very fact that those born in NI are entitled to Irish citizenship ought to alert you to that unique and indeed technical status.

    It’s quite simply the case that the UK has no interest in holding NI to the UK and will exit once its people decide that that is what they want. That’s not the case with any other part of the UK, including Scotland. They’re prepared to fight to hold Scotland. They’re easy about letting NI go.

    The UK at the moment is merely fulfilling its international obligations to maintain security whilst the people within sort out their issues, and everyone knows this.

  • clark

    Arbed, do you know how those sites were “closed down”? I’m too busy at present to look it up. It isn’t easy to shut down a website without the cooperation of the web host. Was it done by legal pressure? If the domains were taken out of the Domain Name System (DNS), the sites will still be accessible if we can find their IP addresses.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    @ Arbed

    Well, nothing new is here either. Every investment over 1 million USD need to be negotiated directly with Karimovs or their inner circle and their blessing obtained (bought) otherwise the investment will have burning effect. The same is true in most of former Soviet republics but Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are particularly bad in terms of security guarantee for foreign investments.

    Teliasonera is by far not the only company that paid cut to Karimovs. My opinion is that Teliasonera’s case was made public by Russians who lost their over billion USD assets in MTS-Uzbekistan. If one looks closely at any large foreign investment in Uzbekistan (luckily there are just few of such) one would quickly come across at least 30% cut in order to secure investment for few years. MTS itself paid cut to Karimovs back in 2005, however, Gulnara decided that time has come to milk them for more (luckily for her Uzbekistan started rapprochement with US and did not need Putin’s protection as since 2005).

    If you are interested below are two more info links to this case.



  • John Goss

    Arbed at 3.13. That’s disturbing. So much for freedom of information. Can Anonymous not get back at them?

    By the way did you get my email sent a few days back? No need to respond to it, just answer on here with a Yes or No. Check your junk. Thanks.

  • Cryptonym

    @Clark 13 Dec, 2012 – 12:39 pm re Ubuntu

    Yeah it is very minor, easily enough disabled once aware of it and whatever domains it reports to can also be blocked (via host file entry or local dns fix etc, if ip addresses aren’t used directly with no lookup). I came across it on that site linked but not on Stallman’s own site (political notes and such, which are pretty sound), maybe didn’t look hard enough and info on it is there somewhere too. It isn’t to me, fully a reason to unrecommend Ubuntu, as compared to any microsoft o/s it is still a million times more secure, trustworthy and stable and free. Seems an odd and nasty thing to do, reporting text strings searched for in files on local storage, a step in the wrong direction, a privacy intrusion, to be sure but the sort of thing microsoft has long been up to.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    I urge every twitter user to challenge Gulnara Karimova via her twitter


    Be warned that you might be challenged by her supporters (mostly paid state security staff and waterboys) but if someone wants to challenge her on any of the vital issues twitter seems to be the only chance.

  • thatcrab

    Herbie: “The UK at the moment is merely fulfilling its international obligations to maintain security whilst the people within sort out their issues, and everyone knows this.”
    Some imagine that, those who are ought to denigrate and dismiss the family, professional and political connections and positions which as many Northern Irish have within the UK after hundreds of years of membership, as the Scottish and Welsh have.

  • nevermind

    I have also supported some of the petitions on Aavaz, some very vaguely written.
    I think a campaign for a no button with every petition should find enough support, should we start a petition, as ‘the concerned’?

    Thanks for that disturbing news from Sweden, I suppose many will now wake up as to what is going on in the Swedish justice system.

    Did somebody manage to take screen shots of some of the most important info? I can bet that some would have collected the info.

    If you as a private person would go against the Swedish Army intelligence unit, how intelligent are they really, when the site has been a thorn in their eyes for so long? and start a website with the information in another jurisdiction, would/could they be extradited to Sweden via an EAW?

  • Arbed

    John Goss, 4.10pm

    Ahh! Thanks for the alert. I’ve just found your email in my Junk folder, just as you predicted 🙂 I’ve sent you back a few links by email and also posted same on Craig’s “Why I’m Convinced Anna Ardin is a Liar” thread, if others are intrigued about this particular line of research of yours. (I’m hoping that thread can stay ‘live’ as I think it’s becoming a useful resource where people can access some of the serious research done by bloggers on the Assange/Wikileaks case, and I know Flashback checks in there from time to time.)

    Hope that helps.

    Re meeting up at the Swedish Embassy on the 20th, hope you can make it. Have you seen the details of what’s planned? It sounds like it’s going to be fun.


  • Arbed

    Clark, 3.54pm

    No, I don’t know any of the details, I’m afraid. Like you, I’m a bit hampered from finding out more – I don’t speak Swedish so that adds extra time to doing any digging on my own (plus, of course, I’m rather clueless as regards tech-geekery, as you know… 😉

    If you’re on Twitter you could try just tweeting this guy and asking him to send you more in-depth details, or put you in touch with one of the other Flashbackers who are likely to know them (most speak excellent English):

    https://twitter.com/ulvdis (Espressino)

  • clark

    Cryptonym, I think the privacy problem with Ubuntu is caused by the new Unity desktop, specifically the “Dash”. It’s intended as a universal search tool; you just type in a key-word, and it displays likely matches with files, software, etc. The trouble is, it displays suggestions from the online “Ubuntu Software Centre” too, so of course it has to submit the search string…

    But Canonical have gone further, and started selling that info to Amazon. That was bound to piss off Richard Stallman. He disliked Ubuntu, but he hates Amazon:


  • Cryptonym

    Thatcrab: “family, professional and political connections and positions”

    Those shouldn’t, in most cases won’t be affected in any way by each of the home nations, which is how I like to think of England, Scotland, any part of Ireland, Wales, giving Westminster government the boot, England included as while it’s especially their parliament, it harms that people as well, whilst for a tiny subset, the party never ends. It is a system of government which has become so deep rooted, so presumptive, ossified and malign that it is a complete monster. Look at bailouts of criminal and inept banks and bankers, crackpot pick and mix free-market dogma, Iraq, the present madness in Syria -we didn’t sanction any of that, it isn’t in our name. A system of government such as that, mutates horribly, crave more pwer, becomes so bad that it deserves to be banished to the history books periodically. This mother of all parliaments guff is just that, late 19th century romanticising, the UK is no model democracy, not even any kind of democracy, we can do better, have a duty to do better, the practice of government can’t stand still, must continually evolve, be pushed to better things or quickly reverts to tyranny, as it has. A case of sour grapes, straitjacketed thinking or simply fear of change, a very odd comment to to make; you won’t make Westminster function better, serve the people as per its purported purpose, stop its fascist descent, it’s a write-off. We should be forming parallel systems of government, new institutions, so one day soon, we can simply turn Westminster’s lights off and usher the members towards the dank prison cells we’ve vacated for their new lodgings.

  • Kwaku Yeboah

    Craig, what do you think about Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP refusing to concede claiming widespread rigging when none of the independent observers witnessed any of the alleged rigging?.

  • thatcrab

    Cryptonym – I very much agree. But denigrating Northern Irelands British status for the sake of Irish unity rather than Human unity, serves the kind idea which conflict is made from, nation building, rebuilding, denying etc. It disturbs and threatens peace in NI, hopefuly Scottish and Welsh in their fine attempts to divorce themselves from Westminster will connect to humanity and not a new old combative idea of each other.

  • Mary

    What horrible and disgusting acts have been carried out in the name of this ‘country’ of which I was once a little proud.

    Blair and Straw, with the CIA, produced Mr al-Saadi and his wife and family for rendition via Hong Kong and Bangkok, to Gaddafi for torture.


    Some years later, Cameron and Hague, with the US act in concert to destroy Gaddafi and his country.

    Straw was a co-defendant in the case which was settled for £2.2m so that the revolting details of our country’s activities are kept secret. There are many more similar cases to come re Guantanamo and the like apparently. Straw is not free to speak after they are concluded apparently.

    How many more years to wait? The BBC correspondent James Robbins described the case as ‘murky’ just now. How much more ‘murk’ to come?

    Straw, Bliar and the rest of them should all have been strung up.

  • Herbie


    The status of NI is as it is. It’s not in the same position as Scotland and Wales, and hasn’t been since partition. Ireland as a whole, had a different position within the UK.

    It’s clear though that a lot of work needs to take place that people can be happy enough to live together in NI as it is even within the UK, before anyone starts to push for UI.

    Im sure whatever arrangements take place for a future confederation of Ireland will be driven more by northern business interests than anything, and when its in their interests they’ll provide the propaganda and the people will follow.

    I think too, it’s worth saying that the business, family and professional relationships that exist between ROI and Britain are much stronger and deeper than those between NI and Britain.

  • Mary

    A ‘debate’ took place in the HoL today, moved by the Bishop of Exeter, entitled Israel:Arab Citizens.

    There followed Lord Palmer, aka Monroe Palmer, strident head of Liberal Friends of Israel. Lord Bew likened Israel to Ireland. He belongs to the Anglo Israel Association.

    Even David Steel declared that he is a ‘Friend of Israel’.

    I could not read on as it was making me feel sick but in case you want to have a dekko


  • Dreoilin

    Via the BDS newsletter:

    52 leading international figures call for a Military Embargo on Israel

    University of Oslo to end G4S contract over support for Israeli apartheid

    Israeli arms companies forced to pull out of major aerospace convention in France

    Major boycott of Israel victory as PSI congress adopts boycott resolution

  • Herbie

    It’s all very bizarre, this Friends of Israel stuff. It seems more like fealty than friendship, to me. I mean, what’s with this always having to declare your friendship every five minutes. They’re dealing with a very insecure and paranoid partner here.

    Real friends rarely need to declare their friendship. They just know and feel, and more often denigrate eachother so secure are they in it.

    Anyway, maybe we should just create a Craig Murray Blog Bestest Friends of Israel Society, for an easier life at least and for the funding and trips and business deals…

  • Habbabkuk

    @ Dreoilin :

    “Why don’t you respond to Herbie at 12 Dec 2012 – 1.55pm instead of quibbling with me?”

    How strange that you should invite me to respond to someone else’s post rather than your own. Sounds a little like ‘oh, I know my arguments are not much good so don’t be a bully and pick on poor little me but go and fight with someone your own size’.

    But don’t worry, I might get round to replying to Herbie. But not of course to his more recent post of 3.51pm today, except perhaps in the three following points :

    1/. “Anyone who thinks or even attempts to suggest that NI is part of the UK in the way Hampshire or Yorkshire or even Finchley are part of the UK is wrong.”

    I think this is called the “straw man ” argument, isn’t it? Was anyone claiming that this was the case? If so, quotation please.

    2/. “I’d suggest that your use of the words “they are legally and constitutionally part of the UK” is an attempt to gloss over the very unique status th

  • thatcrab

    Herbie: “I think too, it’s worth saying that the business, family and professional relationships that exist between ROI and Britain are much stronger and deeper than those between NI and Britain.”

    That’s just a figment of your imagination, if it were true ROI would have been a member of Britain, as NI has been since its majority elected to remain, and continues to elect and confirm overwhelmingly in numerous polls. What notions you have to conjure from to fiction to maintain that NI has weak links to Britain and must inevitably ‘confederate’ or whatever with some vision of a geographic homeland!

  • Dreoilin

    “How strange that you should invite me to respond to someone else’s post rather than your own. Sounds a little like ‘oh, I know my arguments are not much good so don’t be a bully and pick on poor little me but go and fight with someone your own size’.”

    You’re misunderstanding me, Habbabkuk. As I said, you were quibbling – i.e. you were boring me stiff. And Herbie had asked you some interesting questions.

    Anyone who asks, “why? Is Belfast part of the Ireland?” is an idiot in my book. Is that clear enough for you?
    I’m finished with you now.

  • Cryptonym

    Thatcrab: We’re here now as a consequence of the history we’ve had, but it shouldn’t be allowed to condition or constrain the future we might imagine and build. What is happening now is simply final stages of liquidation of the aggressive, acquisitive, exploitative former empire, it’s first casualty was England itself and its own people, and next in order Wales, Scotland and Ireland, now it is more or less unravelling in reverse order unstoppably, the fog of centuries clearing. The “combative idea”, wasn’t inherent in the people but their ruthless leadership and the mercantile elite they served without reason or choice. Religion one tool used to separate and pit one against all and brother man.

  • Dreoilin

    “That’s just a figment of your imagination, if it were true ROI would have been a member of Britain, as NI has been since its majority elected to remain …”

    Thatcrab, Northern Ireland is not part of Britain. It is part of the UK. And without the six counties, there would be no UK. There would only be Britain, or ‘Great Britain’ if you prefer.

    And if you don’t know that much …

  • Habbabkuk

    @ Herbie, Dreoilin, et al : the sleights of hand, insults, quibbles and the posing of irrelevant “counter”-questions contained in your various posts lead mle to the conclusion that the thrust of my original two questions hit home rather well. And that you have sedulously avoided responding.

    Just for the record, that thrust was as follows :

    1. re. Belfast and the flag : several of you posted to record your condemnation of the violence of some sections of the loyalist community of Belfast in the face of the democratically elected Belfast city council in the matter of flying the Union flag. The thrust of my question was whether any of you went on record, on this blog, to similarly condemn the behaviour of the equally violent London rioters of a couple of years ago (bearing in mind that a popular explanation for those riots was that they were the expression of revolt against various government policies – policies arrived at by a democratically elected. government, of course). Having brought you back to the question, I now await your answer(s) withg interest.

    2. On the London demographics : similarly, several of you waxed indignant at the fact that some newspapers gave prominence, inter alia, to the fact that white British-born people are now in a minority in London. You may remember that I asked you whether you would have preferred tp have these facts hidden away – contrary to your normal anguished cries for greater transparency, etc. I went on to ask, out of interest, whether London was unique amoung all European capitals. Having recalled this, I now again await your answers to these two questions (in particular the first one).

    I should be so happy to be reassured that you follow a consistent, principled line in your posts 🙂

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    Quibbling……all perception is selective, after all.

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