Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322


I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.


322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • Kwabena Antwi-Boasiako

    Northern Region will make the difference. Unfortunately for Mahama, NDC seems to have lost grounds in the NR, if my sources are to be believed.

  • Mary

    Were you a psephologist in a previous life Craig? 🙂

    At least ‘Heretic’ has gone off the boil. Malicious and libellous IMHO.

  • kwabena

    Hi Craig, my analysis seems to agree with yours. It is based on results from 136 constituencies as reported by peacefmonline.com. I assume a 70% turn-out. I am not sure if Mahama will win one-touch, but the algorithms leads me to believe he will win the first round.

    I should point out that I am not the same person as the other Kwabena who has commented above.

    NPP: 4,516,680 45.98
    NDC: 5,121,075 52.14

    You can view my analysis here: http://elections.parallaxgh.com/2012-election-results

  • Ed Davies

    Why are results being published if voting is continuing today? Isn’t it normal to keep results secret (or actually not counted) until polling has been completed?

  • craig Post author

    Ed

    Voting was only continuing today in a few polling stations in a few constituencies where there were equipment issues. Those results were not published. Voting has just finished everywhere now.

  • kwabena

    Craig, I think I have a better projection now, based on results from 185 constituencies as reported by peacefmonline.com

    NPP 5,327,721 47.46
    NDC 5,706,052 50.83
    NPP + NDC 98.29

    Have you updated your projection?

  • Mary

    Italy is in political turmoil. The thought of Berlusconi rising like a phoenix from the ashes is enough to put the kibosh on Monti. The next thing will be hearing of a Bliar comeback at this rate.

    Italy PM Mario Monti announces plan to resign
    Mr Monti, an economics expert, has been trying to steer Italy away from financial disaster Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti says he plans to resign after Silvio Berlusconi’s PDL party withdrew its support for the government.

    Mr Monti, who heads a non-elected cabinet of technocrats, said he will try to pass a budget and financial stability law before standing down.

    Hours earlier, former Prime Minister Mr Berlusconi said he will run for office again next year.
    /..
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20656173

  • Kafui

    Insightful work with the analysis Craig and Kwabena. Do you both reckon we are still heading for a second round?

  • Heretic

    “At least ‘Heretic’ has gone off the boil. Malicious and libellous IMHO.”

    Thanks for allowing me the opportunity to respond.

    Malicious? Craig called me a liar and failed to point out a single lie, preferring instead more insults and refusing to address points. He could of course simply admitted that there is a ‘perception’ of self-interest in his promotion of Ghana’s elections and his relationship to the 2 candidates and left it at that. He brought it on himself.

    Libellous [sic] Utter crap. Craig’s been sussed and his fan base is unhappy. The only libel I see hear is “Human Rights Activist” on the header.

  • Fred

    Bradley Manning Guardian Person of the Year with 70% of the vote.

    Malala Yousafzai second with 22%.

  • Mary

    What’s the ‘sic’ for?

    li·bel·ous also li·bel·lous
    adj.
    Involving or constituting a libel; defamatory.

    ——————————————————————————–

    libel·ous·ly adv.libellous – (used of statements) harmful and often untrue; tending to discredit or malign

    ~~~~

    PS Excellent news on the poll result for Bradley Manning.

    Latest BBC report on the Ghana vote. They should revert to a system of indelible ink on a finger. Still counting because of breakdowns in biometric systems.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20656844

  • craig Post author

    Mary,

    I kind of agree on the indelible ink (the story of which is in The Catholic Orangemen) but people were sandpapering it off to double vote and injuring themselves.

    To be fair to the biometric scheme, the equipment failed in 200 out of 26,000 polling stations, and the majority of the failures were simply the batteries running out. The BBC is exagerrating the problem because they know bugger all about Ghana and have to write something.

  • Heretic

    “What’s the ‘sic’ for?”

    Is that really all you’ve got? Pointing out that a word can be spelt more than one way. Pathetic.

    It amazes me that people will pick-up on a minuscule things like that while letting the glaring points I make simply sail past… how about at least attempting to address the point next time.

  • Heretic

    I see that at least one of my comments have been deleted on the other “latest results” thread so that Craig’s deliberate evasiveness can not be readily spotted by the casual observer.

    I should point out that this was not because I was being anti-Semitic, inciteful or anything remotely similar but is a rebuttal to being called a liar and of knowing nothing about Ghana, a rebuttal surely worthy of an apology as I even gave him my old address in Accra.

  • Mary

    Craig That’s awful about sandpapering fingers. I don’t suppose the BBC have ever reported on electoral fraud in this country such as the ‘treating’ in Blackburn and the various postal voting frauds.

  • Mary

    Truth or fiction from the BBC?

    Ghana election: Opposition NPP alleges vote fraud
    Nana Akufo-Addo’s party say he won the election

    Ghana’s opposition New Patriotic Party has accused the governing party of conspiring with Electoral Commission staff to fix Friday’s election.

    Opposition protesters were dispersed from outside the commission’s offices in Accra by police firing tear gas.

    The NPP said in a statement that the National Democratic Congress had stolen votes across the country.

    NDC candidate President John Mahama had a narrow lead over NPP rival Nana Akufo-Addo, according to local media.

    /..
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-20660228

    Perhaps the services of Sir Jeremy Heywood, Sir Gus O’Donnell and Sir Christopher Geidt the Queen’s Private Secretary could come in useful. They were the triumvirate that landed us with Cameron and Clegg. How democratic was that for the British electorate all you Ghana election naysayers?

    ‘Documentary-maker Michael Cockerell described Geidt as ‘part of the Golden Triangle, the three crucial figures in British public life, who the public know very little about’. Cabinet Secretary Sir Gus O’Donnell and Jeremy Haywood, the new Permanent Secretary at No10 are the other two.

    These were the men who, after last year’s Election, helped decide who would govern the country. Geidt was briefed to observe proceedings and keep the Queen informed. His role was to protect the Monarchy and advise the Queen to appoint a Prime Minister only when a decision was ‘clear and uncontroversial’.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1389606/Wonder-Royal-Family-suddenly-getting-right-Meet-VERY-discreet-new-power-throne.html#ixzz2EYazBltQ

  • Cryptonym

    Further to Mary’s post, there a book too it seems which deals with this area of the bastard Cameron and Clegg’s political and constitutional legitimacy. Called Five Days To Power – by a Tory MP, one Rob Wilson. It’s mentioned in The Lobster magazine edition 64 preview Nobody told us we could do this.

    The similarities with the Ramsay MacDonald era National government panic is eye opening, democracy was suspended to form a “national government merely to reduce public spending by an additional £14m per annum, an amount equivalent to 0.35% of GDP at the time”

    Which brings me to books, ebooks particularly. The difficulty of getting books challenging establishment consensus published printed, distributed etc. Recognising that authors of such material expect some reward for their effort and risks taken, deliberately strewn obstacles overcome -there is a conflict with the heavy-handed futile attempts to suppress freedom from effortlessly digitally circumventing copyright and intellectual property across all media forms, recorded music, video and of course books, which all have benefited from, with no perceptible harm to the mega corporations, who’ve probably sold more product as a result. In the case of the Assange book, as easy funding by micropayments from the many, online methods, indefensible interference of banking institutions in transactions between third parties and such messing, sales of this are probably one lifeline which should be kept even by guilt-ridden ‘piratical’ book readers, if only for Assange to in token at least compensate the Ecuadorian embassy, government and people for their hospitality and for actions which have probably already saved his life.

    I’m not sure where Ghana is, though I probably could find it on a map, by a lengthy process of elimination. Yorkshire possibly or outer Manchester, not as far south as the Midlands?

    ‘Exciting Election’ on another thread seems a bit oxymoronic, from past UK experience.

    To the battlements!

    error: % 54334 % % integer division by zero in CAPTCHA %

    🙂

  • Vronsky

    Multiply or add two single digit numbers. Number of possible answers: very small. Total time for a script to fire all 162 possibilities at the site: nanoseconds. Why not make it more human and more fun. And mechanically unbreakable.

    For example:

    Who was murdered by King Haakon’s cook?
    Who left his wife his second-best bed?
    What was the highest point of Mr Norgay’s career?
    Who was interrupted by a person from Porlock?

  • Dreoilin

    Who was murdered by King Haakon’s cook? –> No idea, probably Haakon’s wife
    Who left his wife his second-best bed? –> Shakespeare
    What was the highest point of Mr Norgay’s career? –>
    Everest 1953
    Who was interrupted by a person from Porlock? –> Samuel Taylor Coleridge

    Phew!
    _________

    Arsalan,

    I have bought you a copy of ‘Catholic Orangemen’ (’tis the season of goodwill and all that).

    If Jon will send you my email address, perhaps you’d like to email me your postal address (or some suitable alternative).

  • Jon

    Hi Dreoilin,

    What a lovely offer! I will send to Arsalan your email as you request, tomorrow [update: now done].

    Cryptonym,

    Oo-err, not seen that error before. You didn’t happen to record what sum was showing when it did that, did you?

    All,

    One or two spammers appear to be getting through the new defences. I’ll turn on more anti-spam laser cannons tomorrow morning.

  • Dreoilin

    The above is from March 2009

    my bad

    Not that it’s irrelevant in light of the hysterics the US is claiming to have over Syria and “chemicals”.

  • Dreoilin

    ‘I will send to Arsalan your email as you request, tomorrow.’

    Thanks a million, Jon. ‘Night

  • Jives

    That’s a generous and classy touch Dreoilin…hats off to you.

    See all you sock-puppets and disruptors? This is a warm,civilised and decent blog here-if only you would leave us to our own devices…

    Fat chance though eh?

    Night all.

  • Mary

    Our very own Dr Strangelove, aka Phillip Hammond, is ordering up a new toy.

    10 December 2012
    HMS Audacious: MoD announces £1.2bn submarine contract
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-20660519#

    ‘It emerged last month that Astute had encountered several problems during its sea trials, including leaks and electrical switchboards which were were found to be fitted incorrectly.

    Concerns also emerged last year about the accuracy of nuclear reactor monitoring instruments during testing.’

    How galling that the taxpayers’ cash is being wasted on these very dangerous and leaky tubs. The lobbyists for BAE within the HoC and the Whitehall corridors must be feeling pleased with themselves.

  • Mary

    I should have said … US military spending in $billions.

    This entry about BAE was for a Lockheed Martin contract.

    BAE Systems has won $81 million in contract funds from Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) to produce infrared seekers for a ballistic missile defense system, BAE announced Tuesday. BAE will produce 143 seekers for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense program, for which Lockheed is the prime contractor (click here for our coverage of recent THAAD awards). […]

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