Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322


I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.


322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • Jon

    I’m trying a new anti-spam setting, as a few bots here appear to have been programmed to get through the defences. Numbers may now appear as words – just answer numerically and it should work just as before.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    I do not know much about Ghana but judging from what I know (about other countries) it is possible that free and fair elections in Ghana are to some degree owe to the fact that major powers (and superpower in particular) are not too much concerned with Ghana. It is quite contrary to my native Uzbekistan and its neighbourhood.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    To continue from my last post; which supports the argument – leave people alone and they will find the best way to govern themselves. Although many lives could be sacrificed, but at the end success will follow, even in Africa.

  • Mary

    I don’t know about that Uzbek in the UK. Oil, gold and cocoa are there and there is a World Bank presence too. Where they go, the gangsters-in-charge follow.

    Grim news there about a build up of US troops in Iraq Dreoilin.

  • Dreoilin

    Yes Mary. There’ll be a false flag attack in Syria as sure as eggs is eggs. And then they’ll be in there like a shot.

  • Dreoilin

    December 06, 2012 – With dubious reports that Syria is preparing its stockpile of chemical weapons for use now dominating US media coverage, the familiar menace of WMDs in the Middle East has been resurrected once again to haunt the American public and gin up support for military intervention …

    Continues
    http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article33244.htm

    Why can’t people open their eyes?

  • Uzbek in the UK

    Fred,

    Article states that UK is Congo’s second biggest aid donor after US. It says a lot. Aid? There is no such thing as aid. It is carefully directed support to push forward required agendas. Aid could be given to one against the other, and could quickly change sides when agenda requires it.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    Mary,

    Well, can we then trouble Mr Murray for his opinion on Ghana’s success story. I am curious on how the nation that is surrounded by other (much less successful) nations was able to stage free and fair elections that even Mr Murrays does not dispute.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    Dreoilin,

    Perhaps it is because they (at least most of them) do not really give a sh…t about other countries. Ask people in the UK and most of them will blame f..cking migrants for the problems. I bid the same is true in US. Who gives a sh..t if bunch of people die in Syria. What do they care of are their jobs, mortgages, investments.

  • Dreoilin

    “Perhaps it is because they (at least most of them) do not really give a sh…t about other countries.”

    That’s more true in the U.S. than it is in Britain or Ireland, Uzbek. Having said that, I know numerous Americans who have devoted many years of their lives to activism against war. Like ourselves on this blog, I suppose they have a hard job swimming against the tide of MSM bullshit. They promote the likes of Dennis Kucinich, who never makes really big waves.

    And then you have the majority. For whom e.g. Netflix and DFS sofas outrank anything going on elsewhere.

    Which leaves the Tea-Party-type rump, who positively rejoice in the killing of foreigners. Especially if they’re brown and Muslim. They are beyond belief.
    I go to their blogs to vent when I’m very angry. The better the point I make, the quicker I’m banned. That’s how they operate.

  • Mary

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b01p6ztb The World At One 23 mins in.

    Catch the blunt horror of the words in this Jane Corben report on the effects of drone warfare.

    The increasing use was justified as being ‘risk acceptant’ by some American female academic.

    Dennis Blair justified their use by saying that they were more ‘accurate’ than other weapons.

    Human beings are just disposables to these people.

    Adam Holloway’s words afterwards were the most chilling.

    {Prior to his election to Parliament, Holloway was commissioned in the British Army and served with the Grenadier Guards. During his military service he engaged in combat during the Gulf War and elsewhere, being promoted to the rank of Captain. After leaving the Army, he worked as an investigative journalist with ITN, World in Action, Panorama and the Sunday Times)

  • Anon

    http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/12/10/277233/iran-decodes-all-data-on-us-rq170-drone/

    All data on US RQ-170 spy drone fully decoded: Iran cmdr.

    Senior Iranian commander Brigadier General Amir-Ali Hajizadeh says all data on the US RQ-170 spy drone which was captured by the Iranian military last year has been decoded.

    Commander of the Aerospace Division of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) said on Monday that the data has been “fully decoded.”

    Hajizadeh stated that the IRGC has also discovered all the areas the drone had flown over.

    On December 4, 2011, the Iranian military’s electronic warfare unit announced that it had successfully downed the US RQ-170 reconnaissance and spy drone in the eastern part of Iran with minimal damage.

    The aircraft, designed and developed by the American company Lockheed Martin, had crossed into Iran’s airspace over the border with Afghanistan.

    The Iranian commander noted that the US President Barack Obama had told Israeli officials that the drone was doing a spying mission on Iran’s nuclear sites, but after decoding, IRGC experts found out that the aircraft had not conducted “even one nuclear mission.”

    I’m sure the Iranisns would have loved to have talked to Al-Hilli about that drone.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    Interesting something from Russia.

    Major Russian news agencies reported that Putin today compared Lenin’s remains and mausoleum to one of the main historical heritages in Russia. In discussion about one of Russia’s ministers to bury Lenin’s body Putin responded that Lenin’s body in mausoleum not only contradict Russian heritage but also is one of the most important piece of Russian history.

    Interesting point of view from former KGB officer who nowadays attends all major public religious services in Russian Orthodox Church.

    Another interesting point is that it was Russian Orthodox Church who actively supported the idea of Lenin’s burial until few years ago when newly selected major Church figure Russian Patriarch was few decades back in KGB paid informants service.

    Realities of modern KGB Russia.

  • norse

    ‘IN ERROR’ you betchya!

    Two minutes ago on the Guardian site there was the byline
    «Israel suspected over Iran nuclear program inquiry leaks.»
    followed by an open comments section.

    Not so Déjà vu in this august setting.

    Obviously there followed comments of the sort one would expect given this rare and unexpected opportunity to say what we all think of the Z entity on the page of another of their stalwart guardians..
    “Omigod! I can’t believe this. Israel lying? Whatever next! I better go and lie down and have a rest.” being typical of the tone that got through the censor, who must have been looking at something naughty on his screen instead of doing his job, or maybe a telephone call?
    Then there appeared
    ———–
    CommunityMod
    10 December 2012 6:24 PMLink to this comment
    Recommend
    3
    This thread was opened in error and will close now.
    ———–

    followed by some more pertinent comments
    then
    _ ———-
    comments for this discussion are now closed

    Below all this bs this;
    Top spies flock to Vienna, the home of the IAEA and where Tehran has replaced Moscow as the world’s bogeyman.
    ———
    The world’s bogeyman indeed!

    Hail Mary full of Grace.

  • Mary

    This report was highlighted on Radio 4 Today this morning. We should all feel ashamed yet US jails are criticized.

    Lincoln Prison’s failings ‘among the worst’
    The prison houses about 740 male inmates Continue reading the main story

    Prisoners at an overcrowded city jail are too scared to leave their wings to go to work due to levels of violence in the facility, a report has found.

    Inspectors found serious failings at category B Lincoln Prison, following an unannounced visit in August.

    Penal reformers say the levels of violence and drug abuse are among the worst ever at a UK jail.

    The National Offender Management Service (Noms) said it was taking urgent action.

    Among the report’s findings was the fact the Victorian jail in Lincolnshire was holding 50% more prisoners than it was certified to hold.

    /..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-20670748#

    The worst facts related were:

    The HM Inspectorate of Prisons found the lack of support for foreign national prisoners “a matter of great concern”. In one case, it was discovered that a foreign national had been detained for nine years after the date his sentence ended.Bold</strong

  • guano

    3000 US troops return to Iraq in addition to the 20,000 that only got as far as Israel.

    Obama’s plan for the Middle-East is to divide and rule, as seen in the splitting in two of Egypt by Mr Mursi. The division is caused by his backing the Muslim Brotherhood as a version of Islam that is founded on politics, lying , spying, deceit, power broking and more lying. The principle lie being in the foundations, that the Arab Spring was a spontaneous revolution, and that Al-Qaida is anything but a Western backed mercenary force with leaders who make up their own laws of Islam.

    Without doing anything else, this policy divides the Muslim world between those who would do Jihad for the love of honest, truthful, peacemaking Islam, and those who do Jihad for the interest gold of the Zionist banksters.

    Obama’s plan will probably succeed because a Tsunami of rage will split the Muslim world because of the utterly cynical nature of the new leaders imposed on it. But that Tsunami is going to overflow into unpredictable places like the Fukushima cooling pumps. The Clinton witch and Obamas pyjamas will be turned to stone.

    Isn’t that right, my African brothers and sisters? We will not allow ourselves to be divided and conquered a second time.

  • Uzbek in the UK

    Russian Novaya Gazeta (New Newspaper) revealed that the questions that public representatives asked Putin on 10 December were in fact given to Putin’s PR team in advance (on 9 December) and some (uncomfortable) questions were cut out. This meeting of Putin with public reps were “sold” to Russians as President Putin asked and responds to the questions in live debate. The theme of the debate was (guess what) Problems of Corruption in Russia.

  • Mary

    Noteworthy that the man in charge of HSBC when they were money laundering in the US is now a Cameron Trade minister.

    ‘Speaking in July, Trade Minister and former HSBC boss Lord Green said he knew about wrongdoing.’

    HSBC to pay $1.9bn in US money laundering penalties
    HSBC has admitted its money laundering controls have been too lax

    Related Stories
    Peston: Who pays for banks’ sins?
    HSBC report: Key findings
    Global banking scandals explained

    HSBC has confirmed it is to pay US authorities $1.9bn (£1.2bn) in a settlement over money laundering, the largest paid in such a case.

    A US Senate investigation said the UK-based bank had been a conduit for “drug kingpins and rogue nations”.

    Money laundering is the process of disguising the proceeds of crime so that the money cannot be linked to the wrongdoing.

    HSBC admitted having poor money laundering controls and apologised.

    /..
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20673466

    He is also a man of the cloth!
    Green is an ordained priest in the Church of England, having studied theology at Manchester University’s Northern Ordination course while in Hong Kong, and he is the author of the book “Serving God? Serving Mammon?”.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stephen_Green,_Baron_Green_of_Hurstpierpoint

    Is he ‘aving a larf?’

  • Dreoilin

    “The Clinton witch and Obamas pyjamas will be turned to stone.”

    Nice thought, that. Could we organise a plague of locusts in the meantime? Or a plague of boils maybe?

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