I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.
The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:
Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC
John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.
It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.
The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.
Oh my, America is horrifed by Syria’s “indiscriminate” use of Scud-type missiles and the effect on civilians. You gotta laugh, you really do.
A proscribed bunch of imported fundamentalists, funded and armed by us, yesterday butchered 125 alawite civilians, and now America throws its hands up in horror because the regime has launched some missiles. And that’s before we factor in 35 dead kids in Gaza, to add to the 300+ during Cast Lead. America has a very selective concern for civilians, it seems.
Separately, I read that Russia has just delivered some Iskander surface-to-surface missiles to Syria, and there’s a sizeable Russian fleet now off Tartus. Given the 1930s-style state of global capitalism, maybe a “proper” war with someone who can actually fight back is the default solution.
Reports of another massacre by ‘our’ rebels operating in Syria.
Channel 4 News
Also in many places videos, pulled by google/youtube/nsa of small children lining up and being forced to carry out beheadings of Alawite civilians.
Nice company Cameron and Hague are keeping and funding. Who is governing Britain, evil swine that the Tories are their petty spite and greed and stupidity could not compass this?
They’ll hang for it all the same though.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=475153869217357&id=100001094792472&refid=8&_ft_=qid.5821197471011518405%3Amf_story_key.102191466489928
Nazi Watch
Nofar Mizrahi who murdered unarmed Palestinian teen in Hebron Mohammad Salayme describes her excitement at the murder today: “It was an adrenalin rush, the policeman at the scene said ‘I owe you my life’…I saw the Palestinian pull out a gun like instrument (sic, no gun was present on the body) & thrust it onto a soldier. Quickly i loaded my weapon & was looking for the right angle & understood i only have few seconds, because the soldier could get hurt…I shot 3 bullets(Mohammad received 6 shots) I knew if i did something wrong the soldier could have been killed. As someone whose duty is to protect I must do it for my fellow & my country”
Her commander Amos Yaakov praises her: “I praise her for acting swiftly & professionally in order to finish the event(sic). this is how our soldiers are suppose to act & this is what we train them for.”
How the Israelis put it
http://www.jpost.com/NationalNews/Article.aspx?id=295710
I’m sure the “Judea and Samaria” Police will investigate impartially.
@Phil 12 Dec, 2012 – 5:05 pm
“I have just installed a new ubuntu …”
Be careful with Ubuntu, all is not well
http://www.degaray.com/misc/147-RealTime-Richard-Stallman.html
“If you ever recommend or redistribute GNU/Linux, please remove Ubuntu from the distros you recommend or redistribute. ”
would like to close the other accounts except that one. miliband expects to be in offices before the 2014 Scot Referendum and date for a GE in 2013 is set
The
@ Dreoilin (10.25 pm) – of course I wasn’t expecting you to say “no”. Just trying to correct the carelessness or sleight of hand suggested by your use of the word “technically” to describe the status of the six counties vis à vis the rest of the UK.
@ Technicolour : welle, personally, I don’t like London, but that has nothing to do with the demographics 🙂
So many assurances. Just like those given to those living on the circumference of the Gulf of Mexico?
Should we tell Cameron to frack off?
http://www.cuadrillaresources.com/protecting-our-environment/water/
Permission for Cuadrilla to proceed at Blackpool is a given for today in the HoC according to John Humphreys on Radio 4 Today. They had some breezy professor on who dismissed all concerns. He sees UK shale gas reserves as a tenth of those extracted offshore around the UK!
Anon Thank you for your two posts which I have circulated. Yet another example of how little a Palestinian life is worth to the cruel Occupier.
A contributor to Medialens has written this to the BBC.
BBC – ‘fake gun’ youth killed by IOF
Posted by junglefish on December 13, 2012, 8:32 am
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20706226
Dear BBC
There is no evidence that the teenager who was shot was carrying a fake gun. You only have the word of the Israeli police spokesman. Other eyewitnesses have denied the presence of any such item. Please see these two articles:
http://www.maannews.net/eng/ViewDetails.aspx?ID=547450
http://palsolidarity.org/2012/12/israeli-forces-kill-teenager-on-his-17th-birthday-in-hebron/
Why have you not included the views of the victim’s family? Why have you accepted the Israeli viewpoint as fact?
~~~~~
@ Habbabkuk
I did not realise that calling you Neocon would insult you as I also meant no offence to you. And observe that generally I never start “insults” until provoked. One who uses arguments only without getting personal would never hear any insult from me.
Also, Neocon is not necessary bad, it is just different from the views of most of the readers of this blog. But hey, there are millions of Neocons around the world and most of them are Anglo-Saxons. It is not that I called you racist or fascist.
And now back to the rhetoric. You said “No, let’s be serious : there is NO other European capital with the same demographics as London. You all know that as well, but for some strange reason none of you will say it. I wonder why that should be?”
I said that there is no other European capital that enslaved and robbed so many other people around the world. Paris is number two but as France prohibits asking ethnicity questions in their census I thought we agreed to leave Paris out. But otherwise if you go to Paris you will feel little difference between it and London in terms of non-whites. And you still keep asking the same question.
And also just to let you know that you Essex Girl remake does seem slightly insulting. Not at least because it feel slightly racist.
After an exchange on Twitter with Gulnara Karimova, Andrew Stroehlein, Communications Director at International Crisis Group, has written an open letter to the daughter of the Uzbek president.
http://enews.fergananews.com/articles/2800
Phil, I’m not sure I have unsubscribed to AVAAZ, only that I’ve had an email confirming that I do not want to receive more petitions by email. I’m using ‘Causes’ more and more now. The only trouble is I don’t know who are the people behind these hosting services; any of them. They all seem to be asking for donations.
Duncan McFarlane, if I see a petition from AVAAZ, and I agree with it, I will probably still sign it. But if what Mary writes is true, and it usually is, then AVAAZ is using donations, possibly made by say, animal rights’ supporters, to bolster up an illegal war in Syria, it is a misappropriation of money given in good faith.
Uzbek : if no offence was meant, then none is taken. But I think you know that “neocon” is not usually used on this blog with favorable connotations.
As a matter of interest, how and why did my original question “provoke” you?
And thirdly : no racism involved in the question; if anything, I’m even more interested in the number of white non-British living in London than I am in non-whites.
Glad that we finally sorted ‘offence’ matter.
If you read your post to me 12 Dec, 2012 – 12:29 pm you will get the idea on what usually provokes me.
Well if it is no racism at all why do then distinguish at all between white Britons and white non-Britons? Are not we all humans on that matter?
By the way you might also know that British Empire colonised white people as well as non-whites. Some are still under UK umbrella and Windsors toes.
“Just trying to correct the carelessness or sleight of hand suggested by your use of the word “technically” to describe the status of the six counties vis à vis the rest of the UK.” — Habbabkuk
If ‘carelessness or sleight of hand’ was sufficient to change the status of NI I have no doubt it would have been done by now. The six counties are part of Ireland and always will be. What government they have is open to change, and this is written into the Good Friday Agreement.
Why don’t you respond to Herbie at 12 Dec, 2012 – 1:55 pm instead of quibbling with me?
Cryptonym on 13 Dec, 12:52 am: thanks for your link to Richard Stallman’s article. Yes, Ubuntu has been moving in the wrong direction for a while, but note that the issue is very minor in comparison to proprietary software, where you can’t even determine how many malicious features have been embedded.
I think that there’s a parallel with Avaaz; both issues exemplify a fundamental problem regarding popularity and scale. As any organisation or endeavour involves more people, so its scale moves away from that of individuals. The entity becomes more difficult for individuals to influence. It becomes more “corporate” (ie. formed into a body), even though it isn’t a typical corporation.
At the same time, the growing power of the endeavour attracts the attention of other powerful entities, and they find ways of applying influence at critical points. It may also invite such influence, as Canonical / Ubuntu have done with Amazon, for the corporate advantages such alliances offer in the forms of money, publicity, power etc.. As an example, here is what I received from Avaaz this morning, with my emphasis added in bold:
Obviously, “social media tools” in point 2 are susceptible to “Cass Sunstein”-type influence by advocates paid to influence the debate, and the “media experts” of point 3 establish alliance with the murky worlds of corporate spin, PR and advertising. The corporate media will also select and promote those socially organised endeavours which it finds least threatening and with which it holds most in common. It has to promote some, or it loses credibility with too many of its “consumers”.
I’ve been thinking about this problem for years now. I don’t think there is a “magic bullet”, that some organisation could arise possessing such fundamental purity that it was not susceptible to these effects.
Avaaz at present continues to be a decent campaigning tool for people who don’t have the time or the inclination for more committed political activism. It also serves as a useful instrument that indicates which issues are about to receive the attention of the corporate media.
Ubuntu’s popularity attracts many software developers and testers, it’s wide user-base leads to faster bug fixes and support for the newest hardware. It serves as a good introduction and stepping-stone to the full freedom available through familiarity with its underlying GNU/Linux system.
I’m going to continue to promote certain Avaaz petitions, and to recommend Ubuntu as an introduction to free software. Despite their faults, their popularity gives them significant advantages over smaller, similar endeavours. We shouldn’t permit our search for perfection to detract from our efforts towards improvement, as this would lead to political paralysis.
Two years in prison for the man who damaged a Rothko painting at the Tate Modern. Yet war criminals like Bliar and now Cameron and Hague walk free.
http://news.sky.com/story/1024966/man-jailed-for-defacing-rothko-painting
The Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, Mr Lyon, (the toothless lion) is looking into Ms Miller’s expenses. That’ll be a little tap on her wrist then if he finds anything untoward.
http://news.sky.com/story/1024957/maria-miller-expense-probe-is-launched
Mary
Stalin used to say “killing of one man is murder, killing of millions is just statistics”.
Sometimes (most of the time) greater crimes go unpunished. 200 years ago people used to go to prison for not being able to pay 20 shillings debt whereas those who killed and robbed thousands in faraway places were given peerages and estates.
Nothing is new under the sun.
“Two years in prison for the man who damaged a Rothko painting at the Tate Modern. Yet war criminals like Bliar and now Cameron and Hague walk free.”
Glenn Greenwald on much the same subject, but this time in relation to
HSBC, Too Big to Jail
The New Poster Child For US Two-tiered Justice System
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article33303.htm
(The captcha seems obsessed with the number 9!)
What about Avaaz’s covert and overt support for the rebels?
News for AVAAZ SYRIA
TIME
US formally backs Syria opposition. Endgame for Assad?
Avaaz Daily Briefing - 1 day ago
http://en.avaaz.org/1226/us-backs-syria-opposition-endgame-for-assad
US, EU recognises Syria opposition as rebels close in on Syrian capital Damascus, and as international ‘Friends of Syria’ meet in Morocco.
Avaaz – EU: End the terror in Syria
http://www.avaaz.org/en/syria_end_the_terror/
A petition calling on the EU to impose sanctions on Syrian leader and help end the terror.
Avaaz – Syria: stand with the protesters
https://secure.avaaz.org/en/syria_stand_with_the_protesters/
Peaceful activists in Syria need our support to back their advocacy and organizing efforts.
More than 28000 Syrians have ‘disappeared’ – Avaaz
en.avaaz.org/s/jWZaab/
18 Oct 2012 – The Assad regime has disappeared thousands of Syrians. Here are a few of their stories.
~~~~
No terrrrr or crime at all from the rabble rebels. Libya Mk2 all over again. See how that’s going now.
Avaaz – Protect Syria’s Children Now!
http://www.avaaz.org/en/syria_will_the_world_look_away_c/
28 May 2012 – This photo shows the bloodied bodies of dozens of innocent children, murdered by the Syrian regime. These images are almost unbearable, …
“Peaceful activists in Syria need our support to back their advocacy and organizing efforts.” — Avaaz, via Mary
Yeah right. The Syrians I follow on Twitter are disgusted and back Assad – not because they love him, but because they know what the opposition is made of.
And meanwhile, the Landdestroyer blog is claiming that the Syrian “opposition” is ‘led by long-time servants of Western corporate-financiers’.
US-Created “Syrian Opposition” Led by Big Oil Rep
http://landdestroyer.blogspot.ie/2012/11/us-created-syrian-opposition-led-by-big.html
“This photo shows the bloodied bodies of dozens of innocent children, murdered by the Syrian regime.”
A lot of fake video came out of Syria via “Danny Dayem” who was finally “outted” after a debacle on CNN, iirc. We don’t know for sure who is massacring who, but Alex Thomson seems to have his eyes open:
Mary at 13 Dec, 1:13 pm: “What about Avaaz’s covert and overt support for the rebels?”
I don’t know. I signed the Avaaz petition for Palestine’s “Observer Status” at the UN, and some of their recent petitions regarding media ownership and Internet freedom. I don’t see how abstaining from those petitions could have influenced Avaaz’s stance on Syria.
I also don’t know what is going on within Avaaz. Public opinion to “do something” about Syria remains high, as it did over Libya. I don’t know to what extent Avaaz’s stance on those issues is driven by the opinions of its members, versus political and corporate influence – also remembering that these influences interact.
My best guess is: support and promote those petitions that you agree with while arguing against those you disagree with. And don’t give Avaaz any money because they may well abuse it.
What we really need is widespread publicity of irrefutable evidence of proxy war being conducted in Syria, which would swing progressive opinion. Should Syria’s government follow the Western example by offering to “embed” journalists within Syria’s armed forces?
Regarding Avaaz, maybe a “Vote Against this Petition” button sould be implemented; they got a lot of complaints from members over their Libya campaign. Suggestions?
@ Dreoilin
Current Syrian conflict (for Syrians) is sectarian conflict more than anything else. Similar to Iraq but in reverse order where Sunni Muslims are in minority whereas Shia Muslims as well as various Christian fractions are in minority and which are in more privileged position. This is also complicated by interests of external parties US-EU, Russia, Iran, Israel etc.
To judge this one need to carefully look at Syrian history and particularly at its decolonisation period. Syrian opposition is not perfect (Lenin used to say that revolution benefits charlatans) but oppression of majority (which ever it is) is always temporary solution to the problem.
The cowardice at the heart of our relationship with Israel
The Tories’ shameful reluctance to criticise Tel Aviv is putting any hope of peace at risk
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/9740044/The-cowardice-at-the-heart-of-our-relationship-with-Israel.html
Peter Oborne
Queen and hubby pop down to their local bank branch, check the vaults and meet the new manager, Mr Carney who takes over when Mr King leaves.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/dont-do-it-again-prince-philips-advice-to-bankers-over-global-financial-collapse-8412982.html
Mods/Jon – I’m cross-pasting this comment on several pages, for reasons the first line makes clear. Please delete from any page where you feel it’s too off-topic.
There’s been a request to “tell the world” about this one.
The Swedish FOI site Undermattan and another blog specialising in leaks of Swedish Government malfeasance – corruptio.blog.com/ – have both been abruptly closed down. Both are heavily pro-Assange and are venues where crucial information about the Swedish handling of the sex case against Assange has first emerged.
Use Google translate on this page. It gives a list of the names and times of networks visiting the Undermattan site immediately prior to the closure. Very revealing:
https://gnuheter.com/creeper/site/undermattan.com
Here’s the explanation Undermattan received from its host to their enquiry as to why they’d been closed down. The answer was apparently that it was done at the behest of the Swedish Army Special Intelligence unit:
http://callisendorff.wordpress.com/2012/12/12/bloggen-undermattan-com-stand-av-sveriges-regering-precis-som-corruptio-blog-com/
Hmmmm…
Uzbek in the UK, 13 Dec 10.34
Are you aware of this story, reported yesterday in the Swedish press?
“Teliasonera negotiated directly with the Karimov-regime”:
http://www.svt.se/ug/teliasonera-negotiated-directly-with-the-karimov-regime
Dreolin – thansk for posting that. Had missed it. Channel 4 news reporters all seem to be pretty good and objective
Clark – yep, agree with all of that on Avaaz