Swing to Mahama Across Nation 322

I am definitely predicting a first round victory for John Mahama, and also but with less confidence predicting he will get over 50% and there will not be a second round.

The regional swings look like this with 91 constituencies in my calculations:

Ashanti Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Brong Ahafo 3.9% swing to NDC
Central Region 1.9% swing to NDC
Eastern Region 0.5% swing to NDC
Greater Accra 1.4% swing to NPP
Northern not enough results
Upper East not enough results
Upper West 21.4% swing to NDC
Volta 3.2% swing to NDC
Western 2.9% swing to NDC

John Mahama needs an overall swing of 1.5% compared to the 2008 first round to overtake Nana Addo, and needs an overall swing of approximately 2.4% to get over the 50% margin and win in one round. That is an estimate based on the poorer performance of minor parties.

It looks like he will do it, but this is a projection based on a third of the results (not all of which were useful due to complex boundary changes). It is a fact that the majority of the first dozen or so results declared gave a definite swing to Nana Akuffo Addo and the NPP, across a variety of constituency types and regions, causing me and other pundits to jump to quite wrong conclusions. It cannot be ruled out that there will come a long run of swings to the NPP, but it is looking statistically unlikely now.

The swing is pretty consistent and there are not obvious anomalous results. The massive swing to Mahama in Upper West is in part a reflection of the expected northern excitement at having a northern president, and was predicted. I expect we will see larger than average swings to Mahama in Upper East and Northern as well.

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322 thoughts on “Swing to Mahama Across Nation

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  • Habbabkuk

    Thatcrab, well said, especially your post of 12.17pm. A timely reminder of the noble savagery of sections of the Northen Ireland nationalist community. No wonder some of the responses are foaming at the mouth, so to speak.

    And those responses also demonstrate once again the intellectual dishonesty (or perhaps “intellectual” is too flattering) of a number of the habituees of this board. Perhaps they should re-read some of George Orwell before infesting this blog.

    BTW, while on the subject of noble savagery : it is well known that the wrong people were tried and imprisoned in the aftermath of several of the IRA bombings in mainland Britain (for which the UK police and judiciary got a justified hammering). But…..the real perpetrators could have saved those wrongly imprisoned by coming forward and rendering themselves, couldn’t they. But they didn’t. “Noble” savages indeed!

  • nevermind

    Hear what you are saying about homelessness,Mary and Phil, I watched last nights programme and felt ever so lucky to have a home, although still with a mortgage to pay.
    here in rural Norfolk people sleep with friends but there are some rough sleepers. last year they found a dead chap in his tent, he was a working immigrant who froze to death.

    So Westminster can’t stand Homeless people on their doorstep, well, they should all be congregating outside Parliament, maybe MP’s want to staff and run a soup kitchen 24/7 for the rest of the month, with that many of them they could easily staff it during December until they go back to troughing.

    Phil, I can help with cluster headache’s

  • Phil

    “I step outside and have to step over huddles.”

    BTW, I don’t step over. I do engage people. And more. I suspect those who agree it is better to hand out the number of a charity never actually do even that.

    The housing bubble continues in london, propped up by the excessive wealth of a few and low interest rates for the rest. It is frigging madness. Walls, guards, lights and cameras holding the line.

  • Duncan McFarlane

    John Goss wrote “Duncan McFarlane, if I see a petition from AVAAZ, and I agree with it, I will probably still sign it. But if what Mary writes is true, and it usually is, then AVAAZ is using donations, possibly made by say, animal rights’ supporters, to bolster up an illegal war in Syria, it is a misappropriation of money given in good faith.”

    That’s reasonable, though i think (not certain here) they use money donated for a particular campaign only for that particular campaign – certainly that’s how they should do it.

  • Steve Nell

    Thatcrab: The mis-direction I alluded to, and you have repeated, was that his personal, professional and family associations had somehow contributed to his death, i.e. that his political and personal views marked him out, as if this somehow represents an understanding as to why he was killed.

    The fact is he was killed for being an effective legal advocate who regularly defeated the UK government, which is far far worse than the ‘sectarian hate crime’ narrative that the UK media has been busy portraying. Witness Jon Snow interviewing Finucane’s son on C4 News – shocking.

  • Phil

    Nevermind 14 Dec, 2012 – 5:16 pm
    “last year they found a dead chap in his tent”

    Christ we had a women dead in an abandoned building next to our block. I had heard her sobbing in the night. I was half asleep and thought it was a dream or an upset neighbour. It was so fucking distressing.

    The building used to be a scout hut and is now being run into the ground by an investor who keeps applying for permission to convert to luxury flats. No doubt he will succeed at some point.

    [Nevermind, thanks mate. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work for everyone, including me. But it’s an interesting (and funny) story that I shall tell you over a pint when I (hopefully) next see you.]

  • Ginger Nuts (was: Gideon Osborne)

    “I am seeing noticably increased numbers of rough sleepers in central london these last few months. I step outside and have to step over huddles.”

    Most of them are financial compliance officers and corporate tax lawyers who are no longer needed in the new economy that’s waiting just ’round the corner – another sure sign that the governments fiscal policy is on track to deliver.

    Happy Hanukkah.

    [Mod/Jon: posted as Gideon Osborne, but has posted in the past under Ginger Nuts, so fixing]

  • Fred

    “BTW, while on the subject of noble savagery : it is well known that the wrong people were tried and imprisoned in the aftermath of several of the IRA bombings in mainland Britain (for which the UK police and judiciary got a justified hammering). But…..the real perpetrators could have saved those wrongly imprisoned by coming forward and rendering themselves, couldn’t they. But they didn’t. “Noble” savages indeed!”

    The probably were prevented by the Official Secrets Act.

  • thatcrab

    Habbabkuk, In my better moments i dont feel that way about the about the comments ive been arguing boisterously against. I am susceptable to simple sympathies and being selective about what details i can credit too. There was/is chilling savagery in military and secret official involvement in conflicts too, conflicts may at some levels be fomented and maintained by quite untouchable decision makers, i think the entire machinery of official security is twisted beyond worth and gravely begs to be decommisioned and replaced with constructive human potential mobilising projects, but that possibility is guarded against by the machinery itself. Its a terror and a shame and the clear summary of the big picture, however few or many actually intend to keep it that way. Most people just go on what they would, we are all broken clocks.

  • thatcrab

    Steve Neil, I think that his involvement in that specific case really did contribute to the uncommon event of him getting assassinated/murdered by his enemies in the state. I dont accept his status as a human rights lawyer, to me he was a partisan lawyer embedded in paramilitarism, profesionally, socially and in family. Sorry.

  • Phil

    Gideon Osborne 14 Dec, 2012 – 5:47 pm
    “Most of them [homeless] are financial compliance officers and corporate tax lawyers who are no longer needed in the new economy”

    A few months back Max Keiser interviewed a compliance officer who had been sacked by his bank employer because he actually tried to do his job. He was interviewed from, and living in, the med somewhere.

    I’m certain you were joking but I have no sense of humour.

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    What better way to control the US population, than removing the push-back for the Authoritarian in one of the most well-armed societies in the World. Making all weapons illegal is a lot easier when the population is incensed at the carnage, especially when children are involved

    MK/Ultra Monarch


  • Frank

    Craig, your early estimate about Ghana’s presidential election result was correct. But do you have any information about NPP’s claim of vote counting?

    @Kwaku Yeboah. I don’t precisely know what the observers observed. Did they also witnessed the vote counting? Did they observed the transfer of the subtotals of counted votes from polling station to constituency level to central EC point?
    Npp’s claim should be easy to verify, depending on the the transparency, accountability of the EC’s counting process. (I didn’t saw any precise description of the vote counting process in the EC’s website). What wonders me is why NPP needs so much time to bring the evidence of this simple claim.

    Nothing is what it looks like on first sight, there is always a hidden truth.

  • guano

    Assad is now panicking like Saddam. The veneer of compromise that has fooled UK Muslims like myself into hoping that he might relinquish power before forcing the whole country into violence and starvation was a rubber mask as those who have lived under dictators have known all along. I was wrong. It doesn’t make sense to me that someone would sacrifice his people for power. I thought he would have gone under the pressure a long time ago butI was 100% wrong.

  • Mary

    Dreoilin I said much the same in a note to friends.

    Ed on Medialens concurs.

    Obama: ‘Heal broken hearted and bind up their wounds’
    Posted by Ed on December 14, 2012, 10:51 pm

    The King Of The Drones gets all tearful talking about the “beautiful little kids between 5 and 10 years old” that were killed and says his heart is broken because he is a parent too.
    If you can stand the nauseating hypocrisy it can be found here.

    Here’s the real face of Obama.
    US military facing fresh questions over targeting of children in Afghanistan
    Outrage grows after senior officer claimed troops in Afghanistan were on the lookout for ‘children with potential hostile intent’
    The US military is facing fresh questions over its targeting policy in Afghanistan after a senior army officer suggested that troops were on the lookout for “children with potential hostile intent”.

    In comments which legal experts and campaigners described as “deeply troubling”, army Lt Col Marion Carrington told the Marine Corp Times that children, as well as “military-age males”, had been identified as a potential threat because some were being used by the Taliban to assist in attacks against Afghan and coalition forces.

    “It kind of opens our aperture,” said Carrington, whose unit, 1st Battalion, 508th Parachute Infantry Regiment, was assisting the Afghan police. “In addition to looking for military-age males, it’s looking for children with potential hostile intent.”…


    I have just watched the review of tomorrow’s papers on Sky News. The reviewers was the assistant Political Editor (LOL) of the Sun, David Wooding and the Special Projects Editor of the Guardian, Paul Lewis. Sickening little chat with the Sky newsreader.

    The shootings are being called a ‘massacre’ and much was made of Obama blubbing. As I said in my note just now – ‘Quite sickening media coverage, especially the paper reviews on Sky and BBC, on the ‘massacre’ as it referred to. Even a lot about Obama blubbing.

    When is there ever any of this stuff when Obama has had Pakistani, Afghani and children of other nationalities shredded and killed by his missiles sent from drones and other weaponry? And the Bushes before him.


  • Cryptonym

    In the Dunblane case internet sources say the perpetrator Hamilton, refused a gun license renewal a then Labour Party Cabinet Minister intervened personally to secure him it. The gun Hamilton used it is claimed he purchased it from a Very Senior police officer. Known nut and known much else too. Hamilton had many friends in high masonic places and may have been involved in child prostitution/procurement. There is much covered up in this case, sealed for 100+ years. That case is so strange, has high establishment fingerprints all over and could not ever be considered typical. In some parts of Scotland young children are freely granted gun licences for ‘sporting’ purposes, such as shooting rare birds of prey.

  • exexpat

    @ben franklin

    Guns=military hardware.
    Should be zero guns / 100 population.
    What do I do if theres a burglar? Ring the police. Same like I would any situation where experts are required.
    Yanks are hooked on guns like drugs. All discussions I have seen by them are like deluded junkies.
    If any doubt of the gun problem in the US watch the first 48 on TV… really stupid members of the public with guns will keep causing situations like this.

  • thatcrab

    The mk ultra possibilities are compelling but it is hard to reliably judge, possibly expertly tweaked and not so tweaked reports of them.

    Having gotten into the current state of gun ownership, increased Gun control of almost any extremity would not see a reduction in random ~public massacres for several years, because a lump portion of such random massacre commiters, would be the kind to obtain some in the burst of illegal trading which would accompany a disarming – for a ban like.. better civilised countries have.

    They would need to think about phasing it out, but even more urgently the massacres which their war machines foment and commit. But the forces in charge of the death star dont try to think right.

    I also feel the dread that a similar amount of young children were killed in the ‘Gaza War’ last month, this event will see dozens or hundreds of hours main news coverage here. In the drone strikes many more young children and teenagers ending up bombed, some deliberately, and so on…

    Steve Nell – I am sheepish of my treatment of PFs murder earlier, it was a terrible crime and example. May he be remembered as well as he might.

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    Power is a drug, Guano. The need for your substance takes priority over all. No need to do a mea culpa. We all find ourselves naive in the face of Evil.

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    “The mk ultra possibilities are compelling but it is hard to reliably judge, possibly expertly tweaked and not so tweaked reports of them.”

    It is difficult to triangulate, from our handicapped knowledge base, Crab. I use a process known as heuristics, or to the Old School, ‘brainstorming’ to connect the dots. They can’t be sourced beyond a speculative venture. Cui Bono, is the best starting point.

  • Ben Franklin -Machine Gun Preacher (unleaded version)

    ” Known nut”

    A suspicious conclusion. and one that was accepted as a less than puerile one, at that, Cryptonym.

  • thatcrab

    Most mothers are compelled by economists to work as well as manage households and young families.

    Childhood is preyed on by producers shifting media with only a thin vener of morals or none, Toy guns, Cartoon assassins.

    30 thousand people died from starvation today at least 5000 children.

    The adult world bears no explaination– and terrible uncertainty to children even here.

    There is also significant threat of catastrophic runaway global warming now. There may be a high risk manhattan project to moderate the weather having lost control of carbon levels, by the end of the decade, or the next, anytime from yesterday really.

    And the biggest player in the world, is not finished shooting and selling destruction.

    If life is a surprising kalediscope,
    our challenge is to magnify
    go forth and magnify kids

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