Vanishing Plane 124


If the missing Malaysian plane landed, it must have done so with the collusion of at least one government.  The broadcast media is full this morning of ludicrous speculation that the plane has been landed in Afghanistan by the Taliban (the Uighurs having apparently gone out of fashion temporarily as Muslim scapegoats).  They are trying to tell us that a Boeing 777 could hedge hop under military radar for thousands of miles with nobody noticing.

What on earth is the interest of the media in propagating this absolute guff?  South East Asia is highly militarized.  Radar is hardly cutting edge technology.  The idea that a very large plane could overfly China, India or Pakistan without anybody being alerted is an absolute nonsense.  Other countries in the region, such as Burma, Indonesia and the ex-Soviet countries, also have effective airspace surveillance.

If the plane indeed took the “northern corridor” it must have had government connivance.  Otherwise, it took the southern corridor into the open sea and has gone down there.  That last is by far the more likely scenario, and either progressive malfunction of some kind, or crew or staff suicide, the most likely causes.


124 thoughts on “Vanishing Plane

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  • John Goss

    This is sound speculation. Suicide was my thought too, though why anyone would want to kill others is beyond my comprehension. If it landed somewhere at least one of the passengers would have used their mobile, another way those who monitor us could easily locate the plane. But there is still something strange about the way it has been reported.

  • James Chater

    Has anyone noticed the resemblance between these events and the story of Hergé’s Tintin book, “Flight 714 for Sydney”? Here a private jet flying from Jakarta to Sidney is hijacked and avoids radar by flying at a low altitude, before reaching its mysterious destination.

  • Mary

    More of the MSM crap.

    ‘Michael McCaul, the chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee also said US intelligence was focusing on the two pilots.

    The senior US politician also suggested hijackers may have landed the plane and be planning to use it “as a cruise missile” in a 9/11-style terror attack.’

    http://news.sky.com/story/1227014/missing-plane-police-probe-flight-engineer

    with a helpful graphic of little red dots.

    http://media.skynews.com/media/images/generated/2014/3/17/296365/default/v1/mh370-possible-runways-1-522×293.jpg

    McCaul is chair of the Homeland Security Committee.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_McCaul

  • Eric Oliver

    Fact:
    Whoever hi-jacked the plane, crew and/or terrorists must avoid any outside contact of the passengers. We learned from 9/11 that even a large number of very aggressive hi-jackers can not prevent passengers from using mobile phones or even launching an attack against the terrorist team itself. So he/she/they have to take them out first and quickly –

    Speculation:
    – and probably did so by climbing to 45,000 ft and manipulating the survival systems in the cabin. This is working at FL 30 too, but goes much faster at FL 45 allowing the cabin people even less time to break into the cockpit. He/she/them then drop to a safer FL 20 or so to check the cabin. Now passengers would not be a problem anymore even when flying over land.

    Fact:
    As this can be done by one single aviator without planning and quite adhoc, the pilote suicide theory is not off the table.

    If this was a terrorist act, they sure learned their lesson from the Pennsylvania plane on 9/11.

    Hypothesis:
    I do not believe ANY government being part in this other by utter incompetence. I do not believe in a terrorist act as someone would have claimed it already. I do not believe the plane landed safely somewhere. I believe the passengers were all literally “put to sleep” by a sick mind, before the plane touched ground. The latter might be the only comforting news in this tragedy

  • David Cooper

    Where do you hide a tree? If the 777 wanted to overfly SE Asian countries a false flight plan may have allowed them to fly the usual lanes under bogus id. I kind of suspect that when a plane arrives in controlled airspace the controllers don’t check that the flight really originated where it claimed if the rest of its details seem ok. Something like a delivery of an aircraft to new owners or a flight to a maintenance hub for a major overhaul – any one-shot deal that’s outside scheduled flight but won’t raise any eyebrows would do as the cover story.
    I think this plane is on the ground somewhere. If it was just a suicide, why so much complication?

  • craig Post author

    Eric Oliver,

    Even in a small fast military jet, you could not fly from Malaysia to Afghanistan undetected. Why do you think they bother to build stealth planes if huge airliners can fly anywhere invisibly?

  • craig Post author

    David Cooper,

    Yes, but I very much doubt you are the only person in the world to think of that. I think you will find that all non-scheduled flights in the relevant area on the day have by now been thoroughly checked out to make sure they did happen.

  • craig Post author

    KWN

    Not only that, they are both wearing the same kilt! Very strange, I agree, but I don’t think a serious attempt to deceive or they wouldn’t have left the 2mm white gap between the body and legs on the left hand photo.

  • KingofWelshNoir

    Craig

    ‘Not only that, they are both wearing the same kilt!’

    What are the odds of that! Two people travelling independently on a plane with stolen passports both wearing a kilt.

    Obviously a psyop.

  • craig Post author

    Buenos Boca

    Fascinating. I am not convinced it could really fly close enough to be a single blip on the radar screen. Even second world war radar could give an approximation of number of planes, and they were smaller and in close formation. But more to the point large jets have to stay a distance behind each other because wake turbulence can seriously affect lift – there have been fatal accidents from precisely that cause. So I don’t think it’s a practical.

  • fred

    “Fact:
    Whoever hi-jacked the plane, crew and/or terrorists must avoid any outside contact of the passengers. We learned from 9/11 that even a large number of very aggressive hi-jackers can not prevent passengers from using mobile phones or even launching an attack against the terrorist team itself. So he/she/they have to take them out first and quickly – ”

    Fact:
    A cell phone would not work on an airliner over the Indian Ocean, they are too far from any transmitter. My phone doesn’t get much of a signal on my kitchen table and I can see the mast from my house.

    If the plane was fitted with a relay, which I doubt, it could be turned off.

    Which only leaves satellite phones and not many people have them.

  • Eric Oliver

    Craig,

    that’s right – eventually it will be detected and intercepted. UA 93 was quite some time airborne under the eyes of the most vigilant and powerful air defense in the world. In a state of national alert. In full daylight. Question: What might have been a realistic window of time/distance for any potential MH370 terrorist to fly undisturbed, in the dark, in this geopolitical area?

    Agree – they cannot fly forever undetected. This makes S-bound route heading for the Indian ocean more realistic.

    I wonder whether one already used high res infrared satellite imagery. The contrails (or better the exhaust fumes) can be easily detected as they would appear white or light grey… and hence would be the path of the plane

  • Ping

    After the “goodnight” reply the SATCOM (which was not switched off) ping must have been heard by someone for the next 6 hours at each hourly interval. The Malaysians have to be complicit in this matter, for FIVE DAYS they had 14 countries barking up the wrong South China Sea tree, deliberately, surely they were told/knew about the 6 additional pings.

    THAT THE PLANE HAD STILL BEEN IN THE AIR for the next 6 hours and would have been in either the North or the South “corridor” and not in the South China Sea search zone?!!

  • JPAR

    Surely climbing to 45,000 ft and suicide are linked? If one of the pilots wanted to crash the plane, they effectively showed mercy to the passengers by decompressing the plane at 45,000ft rather than put them through the horror of knowing they were going to crash into the sea and die.

  • kashmiri

    There is a word going on among commercial pilots that the plane carried a cargo of 10 metric tons of gold. A Polish airline pilot gave a press interview a few days back and confirmed that this is what pilots are hearing informally. He also said the procedures are such that the pilot learns about the cargo only when signing off at the point of departure, so planning ahead would be very tricky without the involvement of someone above.
    .
    In this context, some people point towards the Malaysian transport minister who issued contradictory statements which were in odds with those being issued by Malaysian army and police and seemed to direct the investigations in the wrong direction. That’s of course only speculation. But engine failure, terrorism and planned suicide can already be safely ruled out IMHO.
    .
    As to detection capabilities of South Asian countries, having worked in the region for several years and familiar wit the military there, I would not overestimate that. The countries of the region don’t live in a cold war scenario (except for India and Pakistan) and thus don’t necessarily run detection over uninhabited space 24/7.

  • Ping

    @Kashmiri – R u saying Tunku, the Malaysian transport minister who issued contradictory statements , was tanked up on palm wine? Clearly the fool was causing a lot of the Chinese relatives to be very very irate.

  • fred

    “There is a word going on among commercial pilots that the plane carried a cargo of 10 metric tons of gold.”

    There hasn’t been much in the MSM but it’s looking like the bubble may be bursting in China. One large iron foundry has already defaulted and we’re feeling the effects in the Highlands of Scotland.

  • guano

    China has been flexing its muscles in recent weeks. I think the flight has been diverted to Guam, in order to monitor Chinese detection capability and/or diplomatic reaction.

    I’m sure there will be some kind of cup of tea and sandwiches on Guam. I’m sure that China knows what’s going on. Obama wants to focus on the Pacific, so he has to prove that he is at least in the game.

  • craig Post author

    Kashmiri

    I am afraid SE Asia is full of states which are highly paranoid militarily – and pretty well equipped. Not just India/Pak. The Koreas, Indonesia, Burma, Malysia itself, Vietnam all have proper air defence systems.

  • Ed Davies

    Craig: “Buenos Boca

    Fascinating. I am not convinced it could really fly close enough to be a single blip on the radar screen. […] But more to the point large jets have to stay a distance behind each other because wake turbulence”

    Flying a couple of hundred feet below the other aircraft would keep you out of its wake turbulence, allow you to see it (just about – particularly if you were a little behind as well) and merge the blips on primary radar. Military radar can measure altitude as well (civilian primary radar typically can’t – controllers use the altimeter reading returned by the secondary radar transponder for height information) but I suspect would not distinguish two targets like this except, perhaps, if they were very close to the radar head so the angle was steep.

  • craig Post author

    Ed Davies,

    I am genuinely unsure it would work – I am pretty sure two hundred feet below and behind would get you identified as two planes. Otherwise it would be a known military tactic and guarded against.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    The media are pushing guff because the governments involved, especially the USA and Malaysia, and their so-called experts are lying to it.

    The crash was still caused by cabin sabotage which oil rig operator Mike McKay saw and reported at the time, and Chinese seismologists noticed the consequences of when the vaporized debris finally hit the seabed floor, causing a minor earthquake.

    The disaster was to leave Beijing carrying the can as its citizens are now furious about the plight of the survivors of its victims.

  • nevermind

    Buenos Bocas, a great site thanks it says more about the affaisr than anything else.

    I have worked with PAR’s CW, RoR’s, Ed Davies is right, you can fly as one blip, either slightly above or below another plane, but you would have to focus hard to keep exact distance at all times, the moment you lag behind a couple of hundred feet you previous return doppler would be replaced by a slightly different return and it would register on the screen.

  • mark golding

    I have witnessed the merging of two aircraft into a single radar echo on Naval exercises. It is a proven military maneuver.

    I, myself am fearful as to where this aircraft (777-2H6ER) will be flown after a remote control refit.

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