I am in Clackmannanshire which is a good indicator – neither East nor West, right on the Highland line, both urban and rural, substantial wealth but also a significant central belt working class population. The politics have tended to mirror national fortunes.
In Tullibody, which was once solid Labour, we progressed to applause and shouts from people coming in to their gardens. I have never seen anything like the turnout. I have spoken personally to at least twenty middle aged or old people who have voted, who never voted before.
The perception is strongly that we are ahead. Nobody knows what is in those 800,000 postal ballots, but the voters on the day are openly and exuberantly broadcasting their allegiance. Weirdly enough, several people including myself have commented that the mid evening voters were the first group who had given a feeling of predominantly No = but 70 to 80 per cent of voters had already cast their ballots before then. Only a feeling, but it is feeling very, very good.
I shall be at the Clackmannanshire count invigilating. Should be one of the earlier declarations.
You Gov On the Day Poll – 54 NO 46 Yes – they do get it wrong but never that wrong.
“First exit polls in key areas in Scotland are showing a definite swing to the Yes side.”
There are no exit polls!
If it’s true that there are no exit polls, that should make it much easier to steal the election. Why didn’t somebody on the Yes side insist on conducting an exit poll?
Ladbrokes now offering just 1/16 on No.
RT just reported that YouGov figure: 54 NO, 46 YES. What is it based on, exit polling, the first figures coming in, an attempt to extrapolate the final result from the first figures coming in?
Online betting odds have shifter clearly in favour of a NO vote. As of right now I can get odds of up to 7:1 on a YES result. My simplistic analysis of offered odds on various % wins suggest the bookmakers are expecting Yes: 45% ; No: 55% which is close to the Yougov final poll.
Why didn’t somebody on the Yes side insist on conducting an exit poll?
It isn’t a question of insisting it was a question of paying – but why do so as it might rob you of an excuse.
ISIS Drives Texas-made Toyota Trucks Apparently Modified for U.S. Special Forces
The open secret of the iSIS/SIL/IS is pretty much well-known, and only the ostriches along with US “believe” that the rest of the world has bought into the “terrrra” stories.
Based on my reading of events on the ground and also of the correspondence on this blog, one observation and a couple of predictions.
Observation.
Contrary to the confident predictions of several on this blog, there have been no terrorist attacks, whether genuine or of a false-flag nature, nor any other attempts to influence the outcome by acts of disruption on the part of Westminister, Whitehall, the secret services or anyone else,in the run-up to this referendum.
Therefore, those predictions have revealed themselves to be scare-mongering bollocks, and those responsible have shown that they are – to use Mr Scorgie’s latest favourite word – tossers.
It would be gracious if those responsible would now return to this blog and admit that they were indeed talking bollocks.
Should they however feel unable to do so, I offer them (because Habbabkuk IS gracious) the option of declaring solemnly that those false-flag terrorist attacks WOULD have happened but for their timely warnings on this blog.
Predictions.
I. In the event of the Noes winning narrowly
a) There will immediately be cries of ballot-rigging and “we wuz robbed”. Those cries will continue even after those accusations have been investigated and declared unfounded. There will, of course, be no such doubts and scruples should the Yessers win by a similarly small margin;
b) The Nationalists will be demanding another referendum within a few years, inter alia on the basis that almost half of those who voted did so in favour of independence; alternatively, they will point with indignation to the fact (if applicable) that the Noes represent less than an absolute majority of those who were eligible to vote (and perhaps even that they represent less than 50% of the entire population of Scotland, babies in swaddling clothed included).
c) Mr Salmond and his govt. will resign as quickly and graciously as Mr Heath did in early 1974 (for the benefit of young readers: NOT).
II. In the event of the Yessers winning, narrowly or otherwise
a) Mr Salmond and his govt. will not resign and call for a general election so as to get an independent Scotland off to a completely new start (including for the forthcoming negotiations on separation with rUK);
b) Mr Salmond and his govt. will attempt to extract the maximum possible from the rUK (especially financially) and ask for various special favours which at first sight would not seem to accord with the complete independence many Scots thought they were voting for (example: a currency union with rUK);
c) An independent Scotland will behave as ethically and morally as any other Western govt or indeed any govt. anywhere – no more and no less.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Don’t forget – you read it here first! 🙂
As of right now I can get odds of up to 7:1 on a YES result.
Now 69/5 at Betfair if anyone fancies a flutter.
Quoth Lysias: “RT just reported that YouGov figure: 54 NO, 46 YES. What is it based on, exit polling, the first figures coming in, an attempt to extrapolate the final result from the first figures coming in?”
The YouGov wasn’t a standard exit poll – apparently they phoned up people they had already contacted for a previous survey, to see if there had been any last minute change. So could be useful to detect a last minute trend; but also sounds dependent on original sample size & methodology…
Habba
I’m waiting someone to blame the result on the religion of the 3rd cousin twice removed of the returning officer. Perhaps we could start a form of Bingo for the excuses.
Peter Kellner says there’s a 99% chance of a No win at this point. If YES wins, who goes first, David Cameron or Peter Kellner?
My last post vanished?
Turnout of over 90% in many areas.
You Gov sample was about 2600. MArgin of error will about 2% with proper sampling.
I DO NOT like the sound of 800,000 postal ballots . . . . .They could be massaged into 750,000 “NO” votes – they wouldn’t dare claim them all as “NO” as they would be someone of some importance who would be able to kick up that they voted “YES” . . . It’s a recipe for massive vote fraud
I’ll shall treat myself to a small malt whiskey – at least we will not need to transfer production to Wales.
“Tar & Feather The Bastards”
Another YES voter expounding the virtues of tolerance.
Not convinced by that You Gov poll at all. Suspect it’ll be much tighter, though probably still a No, just.
Craig,
If you get a result,please let us know.
Thanks.
Ah, those postal votes. Getting in your retaliation early.
Crash??,
nah..they will bale out and all land in jail…
I don’t want to kill em…I am really evil..
I want to keep them alive as long as possible..and Cage Them. Repeat.. Keep Them Alive For as Long as Is Possible…
So That Everyone Can for Example Come and Meet ANTHONY CHARLES LYNTON BLAIR outside the Tower of London in a cage..Just For one Day a Month..
The Rest Of The Month..He Remains in a Cage and Is Entertained By Himself and Every Video He Has Ever Made…Only for another part of each month…will he see the women and children scream as he blows off their arms and legs…
Which Bit Do You Think He Will Like Best??
Oh Please..Can You Scottish Do This…
We Really Can’t Take Any More of This Cancerous Slime
Please, please Take Your Scottish War Criminal Back
Let Craig Have a Play with Him
Give Him a Mask
Tony
Bringiton
I suspect Craig is imbibing whisky at an even faster rate than I am.
What ever the result, there will be no winners. It was a toss up between a good lie, and a bad truth. The want of independence, and the need of union.
Tony,
This seems to be live as of posting
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/ResultsCoverage
What I cannot understand is why bookmakers can present odds of 7-2 yesterday for a Yes win and 7-1 today when not a single vote has been scrutinised.
VOTE PARTY
1. The party is on Wings Over Scotland ‘Us, Now or Never’, with 943, ER 998, ER 1069, ER a gazillion comments, and counting.
a) Rumour – Ipsos Mori – “polls conducted by them this last couple of weeks have been showing a win for yes. The weighting and inability to reach certain groups has badly skewed the date put out to the media.” – EdinScot
What a suprise. Not!
b) “Edward says: A little something to knock your socks off
Go to – http://trendsmap.com/v2/Lf62/w
and watch today trending across the entire planet (you may need to zoom out to get the planet in)”
c) Rev. Stu was a games journalist, before he took, ER, holy orders, and campaigned for three years for a ‘YES’ vote. Which is certainly doing the Lord’s work.
d) ‘Empire Biscuits’ is the ‘Yes’ genius on the cycle rickshaw in the ‘Bow to your Imperial Masters’ video –
– https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DiMXuEmqAHA
e) It’s a mad party, with nary a (UK shillforce?) shill in sight.
‘Us, Now or Never’, by Rev. Stu Campbell, 18th September 2014 – Wings Over Scotland –
– http://wingsoverscotland.com/us-now-or-never/#comments
2. RT ‘Yes’ vs ‘No’ twitter graphic over a week of time. A sea of Blue ‘Yes’ swamps the ‘No’s. –
– They’ve lost control of their web page, so can’t reach it – Later –
–
3. The ‘Liberal (Ireland)’ link looks like a (USUK Empire?) sock-puppet fake site. Never heard of it, no content of its own.
Too many genuine Scottish ‘Yes’ sites to bother with sock puppets.
– Wings over Scotland, Bella Caledonia and National Collective, with links to tons of others.
John Goss, the bookies’ odds no doubt reflect the trend of recent betting. They have to cover themselves against the possibility of big losses no matter which way the result turns out.
‘What I cannot understand is why bookmakers can present odds of 7-2 yesterday for a Yes win and 7-1 today when not a single vote has been scrutinised”
John; It’s about their exposure to loss. If they have 100,000 betting on yes and 200,000 for no, the odds are calculated on that.
They don’t know shit.
Lysias, makes sense I suppose. Thanks.