When the push polling has to stop 211


YouGov stood to have its reputation shattered if it continued to put out polls showing ten point leads for No, when Yes is very obviously headed for a majority.

Those massive YouGov leads for No were all part of the Unionist tactic of making independence appear both uniquely impossible to Scotland, as opposed to any other small nation state you can name, and an unattainable dream. Too poor, too wee, too stupid and politically isolated. YouGov are known in the trade as “You Can Have Any Result You Pay For Gov”. For months, James Kelly on the Scot Goes Pop blog has brilliantly analysed the methodologies they employed to give those large No leads – asking prior leading questions, a large preponderance of Labour voters in their panel, and the “Kellner Correction” – an assumption that lies or faulty memory about how people last voted, would penalise Labour unless corrected for statistically. The result was YouGov polls that were great reading for the No camp, but made no sense whatsever to anybody who had talked to voters.

My own view is that there has not been an extraordinary 12 point swing in a fortnight, as illustrated by YouGov’s last two polls. What there has been is a continuing stead swing and a realisation in YouGov that, having helped the No campaign for over a year by trying to make a Yes vote seem hopeless, to be over 12% out on this vital vote might damage YouGov’s share price fatally. So they have had to start publishing something close to the truth.

As I have been reporting, the truth has been very obvious to people on the ground for weeks. And the truth is not only that independence is coming, but that the entire political class, BBC and mainstream media has been rejected, and a new form of popular power, based on community democracy and social media, has taken over.

I received an invite from the National Library of Scotland to a post-referendum debrief at 9am on 19 September. Anybody sober at 9am on 19 September (unless having medical excuse) is not part of the New Scotland. But more crucially, the panel includes Henry McLeish and Michael Moore – and they want people to pay 35 pounds to listen to their words of wisdom.

They really haven’t got it yet. Nobody will ever care what Moore and McLeish and their like have to say again, and the kind of democracy we will have will not involve paying substantial sums to hear pearls of wisdom drop from troughers on a pedestal. Nor will members of the old political establishment have a future in that career. It was a good tactic for Alex Salmond to say that Darling and Carmichael will be on the negotiating team: the people will not allow it to happen.

There is at last some understanding that Yes will win: the penny has not yet dropped that this is a revolutionary moment, not a polite constitutional shuffle.


211 thoughts on “When the push polling has to stop

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  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    RepublicOfEasternUkraine

    “Just because an outfit calls itself “globalresearch”, RoS, doesn’t mean that its outpourings are the fruit of researchers.

    Who are their “researchers”? As I’ve said before, if you go onto gloabalresearch’s website you will be be met by a wall of non-transparency.
    —————
    A weak and quite honestly pathetic reply, stick to preaching grammar it suits you better.”
    _________________

    No, I think I made a fair point. It’s too easy to claim that “researchers” have said something without telling us who those researchers are.

    I mean, would you believe David Irving’s research on the Holocaust?

    WHOOPS! Bad example! You already did. 🙂

  • Republicofscotland

    I think you’re trying to say that Westminster MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of negotiations between London and a future independent Scotland.
    ———————–
    Not at all, I couldn’t care either way, there you go again trying to think, it definitely doesn’t suit you.

  • Republicofscotland

    No, I think I made a fair point. It’s too easy to claim that “researchers” have said something without telling us who those researchers are.
    ——————–
    There you go again trying to think for yourself, you’re way way out of your depth.

    The second you start a comment with “I THINK” I instantly know you’re way out of your depth.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    RepublicOfHolocaustDeniers

    “I think you’re trying to say that Westminster MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies should be able to vote on the outcome of negotiations between London and a future independent Scotland.
    ———————–
    Not at all, I couldn’t care either way, there you go again trying to think, it definitely doesn’t suit you”
    __________________

    I’m afraid people will think that you are saying just that.

    Surely someone as committed to Scottish independence as your good self (LOL) should and would care one way or the other?

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    RepublicOfDeletedHolocaustComments

    “No, I think I made a fair point. It’s too easy to claim that “researchers” have said something without telling us who those researchers are.
    ——————–
    There you go again trying to think for yourself, you’re way way out of your depth.

    The second you start a comment with “I THINK” I instantly know you’re way out of your depth.”
    ____________

    Insated of telling us what you thonk about what I think, why don’t you tell us who those “researchers” are?

    Do you know, or did you just make it up?

  • Republicofscotland

    I’m afraid people will think that you are saying just that.

    Surely someone as committed to Scottish independence as your good self (LOL) should and would care one way or the other?
    ———————–
    You see how easy it was to change your comment from beginning with I think, to I’m afraid, you have no depth,stick to your comical grammatical jibes, it really does suit you to a T.

  • Fedup

    Galileo was a respectable “researcher” until such a time that he started to threaten the old order by stating that; the Earth is a sphere.

    The same crappy order exists although since everyone has come to see the Earth is a sphere. How long before everyone can see the reality for what it was and not as it was narrated to be?

  • Iain Orr

    Mick @ 5.47 pm – on the Northern Ireland dimension. You make good points. They are why a NI referendum would be premature. My suggestion of a 3-way condominium (but essentially leaving NI power-sharing where it is) was not meant seriously, except as a reminder of the complexities of the British-Irish relationship. That has a distinctive Scottish dimension: not just the Ulster Plantation Scots but also the Protestants who were United Irishmen – Waterford’s statue to one of them records the 1798 rallying cry, “Remember Orr!” (See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_Orr_(United_Irishman).

    When I was in the UK Embassy in Dublin (after the Bobby Sands hunger strike) my visits to Northern Ireland made me aware of those who wanted to remain part of the UK, but who were definitely Irish and not British. Ever since then I have generally avoided the term “British Embassy”. Craig was the UK’s Ambassador to Uzbekistan.

    My first suggestion was, however, quite serious. It was also literalist and mildly provocatively: the most Northern point of the island of Ireland is Malin Head in Donegal, which is not part of the UK, whereas the North-east corner of Ireland is. And while Donegal is within the traditional province of Ulster but is not part of “Northern Ireland”, there are obvious political objections to calling the new state “South Britain and Ulster”. But what objection have you to my Plan B, calling it “Southern Britain and Northern Ireland”?

    Names do matter. That’s why it is fair to ask Alex Salmond, “If you are not able to persuade the main UK parties to share the pound sterling, what will your currency be called?” It is also fair to ask the No campaign, “If Scotland votes for independence, what will you call yourself?” Fair also to cut both sides some slack: why reveal your fall-back position? However, “Have you thought seriously about your fall-back position?” Both will say “Yes” – but will both be able to say that with equal conviction?

  • fred

    “Galileo was a respectable “researcher” until such a time that he started to threaten the old order by stating that; the Earth is a sphere.

    The same crappy order exists although since everyone has come to see the Earth is a sphere. How long before everyone can see the reality for what it was and not as it was narrated to be?”

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flat_Earth_Society

    They contradict the established`conventions therefore by your logic that because Galileo contradicted the established conventions and was right everyone who contradicts established conventions must be right they must be right and Galileo wrong.

    Are you sure you’ve thought this through?

  • Macky

    The Habba-Clown litters another thread with his juvenile jibes & petty attempted put-downs.

    At least Villager was apparently youthful, but this sad narcissistic Clown can’t even blame immaturity for his masturbatory addiction to pathetic, but obviously much needed, cheap fake ego boosts.

  • Mary

    RoS Tell the Resident Intewworgator to find out for himself whether the power plant in Gaza has been restored to working order after the Zionist entity bombed it to smithereens.

    First he should ascertain whether the engineer and his staff are still alive. Second, he should find out if his mates in the Zionist entity are allowing entry of the parts and materials needed.

    The staff have had much experience in repairs. After all it was bombed in 2006
    http://electronicintifada.net/content/act-vengeance-israels-bombing-gaza-power-plant-and-its-effects/2812

    In Cast Lead 2008/9 there was more damage.

    ‘The restrictions also prevent rehabilitation of the infrastructure that was damaged: this summer, 90 percent of Gazans still suffered electricity blackouts of up to 12 hours a day. These blackouts, which result from the damage Israel caused to infrastructure when it bombed Gaza’s power station in 2006 and during Operation Cast Lead, increased substantially recently.’
    http://www.btselem.org/gaza_strip/castlead_operation

    and more again in 2012
    http://electronicintifada.net/content/thousands-remain-without-water-power-one-month-after-attack-gaza/12040

    Quite often there is no fuel due to the blockade and the people have got used to blackouts.

    The Occupiers are bastards.

  • Mary

    Spot on Macky. There have been nine pointless comments from the RI since 8.27pm and it has just turned 10 o’clock.

    That means it’s time for the latest propaganda from BBC ‘News’ at Ten.

  • lysias

    As for Northern Ireland, the Protestants there may be unwilling to join a united Ireland, but would they be willing to join a federated republic (or, in my dreams, a restored Stuart monarchy) including Ireland, Scotland, and maybe also Wales and the Isle of Man (and possibly also parts of England that might also want to secede)?

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    RepublicOfHolocaustDenials

    You’re not doing too well this evening, are you.

    For someone so strongly committed to Scottish independence, you claim to have no view on whether Westminster MPs sitting for Scottish constituencies should have a vote on the outcome of negotiations between rUk and a future independent Scotland.

    Then you cite “researchers” but appear unable to tell us who those “researchers” are, which leads to the suspicion that you’re making things up.

    Finally, you offer penetrating “analysis” which boils down to saying NATO might do something but then it might not.

    And in response, you ramble on about the rules of grammar; 🙂

    You’re out of your league, sonny.

  • Habbabkuk (La vita è bella) !

    Mary

    Since you appear concerned, I’ll put the same question to you as I put to RepublicOfWetDreams, viz:

    “RepublicOfGazaInEngland quotes:

    “Over a million people in Gaza could be without electricity after Israeli tank shells hit the fuel depot of the enclave’s only power station, causing it to shut down. Its director, Mohammed al-Sharif, said, “The power plant is finished.” (Gaza’s only power plant shut down by Israeli shelling, RT, July 29, 2014)”
    _______________

    The above “report” from the egregious Russia Today is dated 29 July and says “could be”.

    What is the position today ( 8 September), RoS?”
    _______________

    Are over a million people in Gaza without electricity today, 8 September – as speculated on by Russia Today several weeks ago?

    Yes or no?

  • Macky

    Habba-Clown; “You’re out of your league, sonny”

    And you surely must be nearly out of clean tissue paper ! 😀

  • fred

    “Scotland’s currency before 1707 was the Pound Scots.”

    Your link says that one pound sterling was worth twelve pounds scots.

  • Fedup

    They contradict the established`conventions therefore by your logic that because Galileo contradicted the established conventions and was right everyone who contradicts established conventions must be right they must be right and Galileo wrong.

    Are you sure you’ve thought this through?

    Fred what is the Flat Earth Society? An extension of believers who venerated the old crappy order. Insisting on the exception to the rule is a trick that the old crappy order is good at.

    The group rose to about 3,500 members

    A robustly popular belief, isn’t it Fred?

    Fred why are you trying to discount the distributed intelligence and wisdom , by recourse to jokes?

    =====

    Spot on Macky. There have been nine pointless comments from the RI since 8.27pm and it has just turned 10 o’clock.

    No sooner came the next post at 22:03/10:03

    An average rate of drivel velocity is a drivel per 8 min 43 sec, an indication of low friction state of affairs pointing to copious amounts of grease of unknown specification that may have been applied.

  • Ben

    http://monthlyreview.org/2014/09/01/the-return-of-fascism-in-contemporary-capitalism/

    Subsequently, the rehabilitation of East European fascism was quickly undertaken beginning in 1990. All of the fascist movements of the countries concerned had been faithful allies or collaborators to varying degrees with Hitlerism. With the approaching defeat, a large number of their active leaders had been redeployed to the West and could, consequently, “surrender” to the U.S. armed forces. None of them were returned to Soviet, Yugoslav, or other governments in the new people’s democracies to be tried for their crimes (in violation of Allied agreements). They all found refuge in the United States and Canada. And they were all pampered by the authorities for their fierce anti-communism!

    In Les Ukrainiens face à leur passé, Ostriitchouk provides everything necessary to establish irrefutably the collusion between the objectives of U.S. policy (and behind it of Europe) and those of the local fascists of Eastern Europe (specifically, Ukraine). For example, “Professor” Dmytro Dontsov, up to his death (in 1975), published all his works in Canada, which are not only violently anti-communist (the term “Judeo-Bolshevism” is customary with him), but also even fundamentally anti-democratic. The governments of the so-called democratic states of the West supported, and even financed and organized, the “Orange Revolution” (i.e., the fascist counter-revolution) in Ukraine. And all that is continuing. Earlier, in Yugoslavia, Canada had also paved the way for the Croatian Ustashis.

    The clever way in which the “moderate” media (which cannot openly acknowledge that they support avowed fascists) hide their support for these fascists is simple: they substitute the term “nationalist” for fascist. Professor Dontsov is no longer a fascist, he is a Ukrainian “nationalist,” just like Marine Le Pen is no longer a fascist, but a nationalist (as Le Monde, for example, has written)!

  • Resident Dissident

    “In short, everything that has happened in Europe since 2009 or so has demonstrated that sharing a currency without sharing a government is very dangerous. In economics jargon, fiscal and banking integration are essential elements of an optimum currency area. And an independent Scotland using Britain’s pound would be in even worse shape than euro countries, which at least have some say in how the European Central Bank is run.

    I find it mind-boggling that Scotland would consider going down this path after all that has happened in the last few years. If Scottish voters really believe that it’s safe to become a country without a currency, they have been badly misled.”

    From Krugman’s article as referred to by Ed

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/08/opinion/paul-krugman-scots-what-the-heck.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=c-column-top-span-region&region=c-column-top-span-region&WT.nav=c-column-top-span-region&_r=1

    Could Craig please explain how he squares what Krugman says in the first paragraph which ties in very closely with what he was saying about Greece and Spain at the time of the Eurocrisis. I don’t think that Scotland should have a separate currency will cut it – since that is what has been offered by Salmond and Co – I would be seriously worried about a state that would (re)start its life with such a democratic deficit.

    PS I note the increasingly illiberal Craig sees no role for the abstemious in his New Scotland – I do hope he has told the Wee Frees.

  • fred

    “Fred why are you trying to discount the distributed intelligence and wisdom , by recourse to jokes?”

    I’m not.

    I was just pointing out that your references to Galileo and the Catholic church don’t mean jack shit. Every crank with some oddball theory churns out the same analogy like it means something and it doesn’t.

  • Resident Dissident

    Ben

    Might I suggest you look up Zhironovsky and his LIberal Democratic Party (which is neither) and their election results and history of support for Putin – but then he would be a Russian nationalist rather than a fascist wouldn’t he.

    The Orange Revolution in the Ukraine was not fascist, and the Government of Croatia is Social Democratic nothing to do with the fascist Utasche (quite what role Canada played is beyond me).

    Might I suggest that you stay away from subjects that you most clearly do not understand.

  • Resident Dissident

    Check out this piece of Hateful ****

    Of course if a Scottish Nationalist were to say people were not decent if they didn’t vote for Independence and that they had no place in the New Scotland if they stayed sober on September 18 – then you would see no problem.

    I’m afraid hate is all too often part of the identity for nationalists wherever they come from.

  • ERM

    For people still fretting about the currency – if it’s genuine perplexity, and not City of London slogans – monetary policy is not hard at all if you don’t let the bankers run amok. You can see why Britain has such a hard time of it, the bankers have the bit in their teeth. They run the place.

    No reason you can’t cut banks out of money creation entirely. It’s just a matter of issuing and retiring government financial obligations to take up economic slack. Don’t tell that to the British toffs, they’ll go berserk, that’s their raison detre. Break it to them when you’re free.

    The City of London’s flaks are obsessing about currencies because they think that you’re afraid and want their guidance. They think you’ve forgotten how George Soros took them to the cleaners and how they fucked up RBS. These are the people who would never have gotten into Charterhouse or Saint Paul’s boys if you could have afforded to go. They’re simply not that bright.

  • BrianFujisanWabi-sabi

    Rd its utter vile Fear mongering Racist sickness from Farage… they are trying hard to whip it up though, i’ll give you that.

  • Fedup

    I was just pointing out that your references to Galileo and the Catholic church don’t mean jack shit. Every crank with some oddball theory churns out the same analogy like it means something and it doesn’t.

    Fred now you have started your usual evasive manoeuvres of insults, and short tempered conduct, post your disastrous first run at a rebuttal. Although you are stating that your not discounting the distributed intelligence and wisdom.

    Stay civil and to the point will you?

  • Resident Dissident

    I think Fedup might find that the Anti-Semite Society of which he is such a proud member is also part of the old crappy order if he were to study a little bit of history. Lets just say that the Jews did expect the Spanish Inquisition.

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