That Exit Poll 49

Wow, that knocked me sideways. Predicting a seriously hung parliament. Also predicting a setback for the SNP but still most of the seats in Scotland. I am going to have a serious drink and then think about this. Amazing. Happy. One of the most interesting six hours of my life coming up.

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49 thoughts on “That Exit Poll

  • Jon Asher

    I already had my sleep from 5pm. I’m up for the night. Just watching James Brokenshire on Sky News saying “It’s early yet” … and it IS still early but …. just how out-of-touch is it possible for The Tories to be and not know what life is like for millions of the people they govern? Shocking state of affairs. I wonder if Lynton Crosby had a part on calling the election in the first place? What a way to make a huge salary … getting things this wrong!!

  • fred

    National Unity Government till after Brexit then call another election. It would make sense.

  • Stu

    Hopefully the poll is overestimating the Tories in Scotland and it’s even worse for May.

  • glenn_uk

    Surely there ought to be a few Plaid Cymru, Green and an Independent or two in there, what about the Unionists? Not even an “Other”?

    Glad I got back in time to vote, and take in the results tonight with some heavily discounted booze from the continent to help steady the nerves. From the storms a couple of days ago, it appeared the ferries might not have been running. A postal vote wouldn’t have arrived in time… gotta love these “snap elections” from our steady and stable administration.

    • Brianfujisan

      Nervous stuff Indeed Glen..

      And I Hope Stu is Correct.. Gonna be a Long Night

    • Ishmael

      It’s funny that somehow this election feels not bad, considering it was snap and we just had ……. another vote.

      I get the feeling politics is on the agenda again and people will be energised by this.

  • Ishmael

    Is it over yet? oo(OIO)oo

    I take it this is a partial result in the big scheme of better possibilities. Very nice to see all who got behind this happy.

    Sure i have some alcohol around the house…


  • Ba'al Zevul

    …something about enumerating young hens…
    A lot of the seats are 50/50, apparently. The show ain’t over until the unpleasant lady resigns.

  • JOML

    I had expected the SNP to get about 40 seats, so 34 is a surprise. Still, more than 50% of seats is still significant. On a UK level, it would be amazing if Corbyn increased Labour seats, while Teresa loses her majority. Do the Tories have a facist in the wings who can take over?! ?

    • glenn_uk

      Do the Tories have a facist in the wings who can take over?!”

      Indeed… the conclusion from fascism (inc) will be that May was insufficiently strident & swivel-eyed and was altogether too wishy-washy to win the day. Clearly, a fundamentalist Thatcherite hard-liner is what was actually required – where were the promises for negative corporation tax? Internment camps? Gulags for dope-smokers? Workhouses? For God’s sake – she didn’t even promise a return of the death penalty!

    • Ba'al Zevul

      Yes, but, the Tory vote is up as well, and the overall result is a bit short of the exit poll prediction. Same for Sunderland.

  • labougie

    Just imagine the HORROR with which the Murdochs, Barclays, Rothermeres, Desmonds and Lebedevs contemplate the future. All I can say is “Aw, diddums”. Any chance on a major cull of BBC Tory sinecures?

    • Loony

      They don’t care one way or the other – too busy cleaning up on the fall in sterling.

      …and yeah they will also clean up when and if sterling rebounds. It is all about money and if you think otherwise the happier they will be.

    • Ishmael

      Yea, this is a real part of the victory.

      It’s looking rosy DESPITE all that ££££. And surly this can be just the start.

  • Tony_0pmoc

    I wore a blue shirt, but I voted red…so I reckon make blue line shorter and the red line longer…it will change in time.

  • Jarek Carnelian

    I’ll not be sleeping either. If this early prediction is justified, we are making history tonight! We assumed that there was no beating the relentless media bias and crushing of community spirit, that a disengaged younger vote would put the final nails in the coffin. Maybe we reached a turning point. Maybe the future is brighter and more colorful than we dared imagine…

  • Hieroglyph

    Hm, some are saying the poll is a bit suss. Lots of variables here, including increased Tory vote in Newcastle and Sunderland. Everyone on Twitter is biased of course, so Tories saying this is important, others thinking not so much. I do like elections that are uncertain, much more fun. I predicted 310 for the Tories, don’t rule out a slim majority though, will come down to voter turn out in key marginals, it seems. Bizarre if the Tories do well in Scotland, can’t quite explain that myself. I mean you could form a party, call it the ‘I Hate Scotland And It’s Women Are Ugly*’ party, and still expect to do better than May’s Tories. Curious.

    May is toast. I hope Labour can get rid of Watson too, he’s a doubtful proposition all in all.

    * Clearly, this is not the case. Red-haired women in particular are stunning.

    • Hieroglyph

      Further to this, the BBC is saying that if result in Sunderland is a guideline, May is NOT toast, majority of over 50. Hm. Wouldn’t read too much into one seat, but this is interesting.

      • Stu

        Seats with large UKIP votes in 2015 will be less accurate.

        Curtice tried to explain that but they didn’t seem to understand.

    • Juteman

      “Bizarre if the Tories do well in Scotland, can’t quite explain that myself. I mean you could form a party, call it the ‘I Hate Scotland And It’s Women Are Ugly*’ party, and still expect to do better than May’s Tories. Curious. ”

      May hardly featured up here, neither did the word ‘Conservative’. It was the Ruth Davidson No Surrender Stop the SNP Party on all the campaign material. She was making a claim for the Unionist vote, not a Tory vote as such.
      All the unionist parties and the media, especially the BBC, made the GE about independence. The SNP were the only party to campaign on Westminster policies. Scottish politics can be very confusing to the outsider these days.

  • Kempe

    Suddenly British democracy not so quite so flawed.

    Of course if no party can form a working coalition we’ll have to go through this all over again in a few weeks time with the added bonus of one or more leadership contests.

    I’m going to bed.

    • Brianfujisan

      British democracy is well flawed…

      Take for Example..the lying bbc Which some misled souls think are Golden Truth tellers.. Despicable.. The May photo opps all staged in such places as wee Highland huts.

      Imagine the duped wake up one day to Riots everywhere, and ask how did that happen… The Sheer size Corbyn Rallies might be clue

    • Herbie

      “This is from the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg.

      Sounds like Rudd and also Jane Ellison in Battersea both likely to lose out – two ministers losing their seats”

      It’s from Laura.

      Could be bullshit.

  • Aim Here

    Early days yet, but the Labour results so far have outperformed the final Yougov election poll by 2-4%. That poll put Labour at 38% to 42%.

  • J

    With more of the Tyne regions in (Labour) plus Swindon North (Tory) the vote share just oscillated back toward a labour swing. I suppose we can’t read too much into anything yet without expert knowledge.

  • The G5 did it

    It seems that it could go either way from the results that have come in so far, however it does seem certain that May won’t be getting the huge majority she sought.

    I think Cameron is pulling strings behind the scenes and purging the Tories of their far right elements. May is the next one to go, who persuaded her that calling an election and then acting like a total arse was a good idea? Nick and Fiona? Are they working for Cameron?

  • Tony_0pmoc

    Re Colours, I would recommend a whiskey, shandy green with loads of water – and I have voted Yellow most of my life. You see, I am not really bothered whether you are red are blue – or even green. Everyone has their political differences that is perfectly O.K.

    But I hope you Lib Dems lose All your Seats

    I can take liars and bstards and eejits – but I cannot take complete and utter total betrayal on one scent of power.

    You are not supposed to change from pacifist to warmonger overnight – even if you have been brainwashed (was it ECT?)

    Yellow is what you Lib Dems are – No Courage. I have more Respect For The Tories -at Least they tell you in Advance they they are Going To Screw You..

    Well I voted RED and I am Proud of It.

    Come on Jeremy Corbyn.


    • glenn_uk

      Wait a minute… mixing a single malt with water? I thought that really wasn’t on?

        • glenn_uk

          OK… I knew it shouldn’t be more than a drop (unless it was the white-label bottle simply called “WHISKEY” from Tesco)… but should one put a _drop_ of water in a shot of single malt or not?

          Even the blurb that comes with the bottle is on the fence over this one.

  • Hieroglyph

    Rutherglen & Hamilton – Labour gain. Intriguing. Labour have doubled their seats in Scotland!

    Pretty big swing of 10k ish votes, though it was a huge swing to SNP previously, which is a factor. I expected Tories to do ok in Scotland, let’s hope this is a positive harbinger. I genuinely have no clue what the result will be, lovely.

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