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Michael, the UK ‘lockdown’ is working. But it was imposed rather late, and the current deaths are from the many infections that occurred before it was imposed.
The predicted effects of the various level of restriction match the figures really rather well.
So here’s the model of new infections daily in the UK; the sudden drop is the predicted effect of the lockdown. Actual infections can’t be shown, because testing has been neither widespread nor random enough to get a reliable sample of the entire population:
This shows the forecast deaths in blue, against the counted deaths as a brown bar chart, and the fit is very good:
Rt is the predicted reproduction rate of infections. This shows the estimated decrease for the various measures:
And this is the second graph again, but with deaths plotted logarithmically and a bit more of the forecast shown:
More information here.