Reply To: Corona virus: Government takes the St Augustine approach.


Home Forums Discussion Forum Corona virus: Government takes the St Augustine approach. Reply To: Corona virus: Government takes the St Augustine approach.

#52292
Clark
Guest

Michael, the UK ‘lockdown’ is working. But it was imposed rather late, and the current deaths are from the many infections that occurred before it was imposed.

The predicted effects of the various level of restriction match the figures really rather well.

So here’s the model of new infections daily in the UK; the sudden drop is the predicted effect of the lockdown. Actual infections can’t be shown, because testing has been neither widespread nor random enough to get a reliable sample of the entire population:

Daily infections from simulation

This shows the forecast deaths in blue, against the counted deaths as a brown bar chart, and the fit is very good:

Deaths: predicted and actual

Rt is the predicted reproduction rate of infections. This shows the estimated decrease for the various measures:

Reproduction rate for various restrictions

And this is the second graph again, but with deaths plotted logarithmically and a bit more of the forecast shown:

Forecast deaths, log scale

More information here.