I think Germany’s trace-and-test closure percentage would tell us most. If it’s nearly 100% then Germany really is doing well at last. If it’s 90% or lower (at a guess) then Germany is on its way to another wave, and the current big UK-Germany ‘difference’ is just that our waves and theirs are occurring at different times. Germany hasn’t been a big success story; they’ve had three massive waves so far with around 92,000 deaths overall.
Looking at floods seems pretty low-risk – indoors is five to twenty times riskier than outdoors.