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September 15, 2021 at 00:21 #77396Clark
– “You can’t hide from Delta”
China will crush Delta. They have already done so at least once.
There is no way that the Chinese government will tolerate the economic damage that most governments have permitted. Want to bet with me? The curves are here:September 15, 2021 at 08:50 #77410michael norton
“Let’s see how Sputnik V works in real life: Putin reveals he had close contact with Covid-19 infected person for a whole day”
In August 2020, Sputnik V became the world’s first registered Covid-19 vaccine. Since then, it has been authorized in 70 different countries.
I think there had been some talk of people who had the Oxford for their first jab being offered Sputnik as their second?September 15, 2021 at 14:12 #77425ET
The Sputnik vaccine is under “rolling review” by the European Medicines Agency along with 4 others which doesn’t include the Valneva vaccine. The last update from EMA regarding Sputnik vaccine was March 2021 where they stated it was under rolling review. Apparently Russia’s Gamaleya National Centre of Epidemiology and Microbiology who developed it are not accustomed to dealing with the requirements of such a regulatory agency. Or perhaps the EMA is dragging its feet, who knows?
Regarding Valneva Javid said this in parliament: “There are commercial reasons that we have cancelled the contract, but what I can [say] is that it was also clear to us that the vaccine in question that the company was developing would not get approval by the MHRA here in the UK……..”
“I think there had been some talk of people who had the Oxford for their first jab being offered Sputnik as their second?”
I think this may have happened in Argentina due to shortage of the Astrazeneca vaccine for second doses but it’s not approved in the UK for use. The Ministry of Health of Buenos Aires province published a Lancet article:
“Sputnik Light has shown efficacy of 82.1 to 87.6% against hospitalisations. The component of Sputnik V has shown 78.6 to 83.7% efficacy among elderly people aged between 60 to 79 years.”September 15, 2021 at 19:14 #77443michael norton
ET, the Vaccine chap who has done a good job has just been promoted.
I wonder if he was the main person responsible for thwarting the French vaccine?
I knew he was an Iraqi, I have just read he is a Kurd.
I wonder if we will have a new Vaccine Tsar?September 18, 2021 at 08:59 #77643michael norton
Just heard this on R4 this morning.
Donald Trump drug to be given to very ill covid victims in the U.K.
Ronapreve, will become available for coronavirus parents across Britain next week, the UK government has said. The drug was used to treat then-US President Donald Trump, who hailed it as a “cure” for Covid-19.
The drug, jointly developed by Roche and Regeneron, will be initially used among those with a weak antibody response to the virus, British health authorities said Friday.September 18, 2021 at 11:37 #77663ET
Not sure Roche would be happy with it being referred to as “The Donald Trump” drug.
Here is a BMJ Article Ronapreve for prophylaxis and treatment of covid-19 and should you be interested the Summary of Product Characteristics from UK.Gov. The more treatment options that are available and are effective the better for everyone.
There are a number of other monoclonal antibody treatments in the works from other pharma companies.
“ET, the Vaccine chap who has done a good job has just been promoted.”
I saw that, he did a good job.September 21, 2021 at 16:22 #77979michael norton
My next door neighbour has just told me that one of her three girls has just tested positive for covid, obviously picked up in the first week of return to school. My neighbour has informed the school. The school has said the covid positive child, a twin must stay at home but the other two can come to school.Even the other twin, who shares a bunk bed.September 22, 2021 at 08:24 #78027michael norton
Just heard the top General Practitioner speaking on R4 he said just because people have a right to ask for face to face does not mean that G.P.’s will make it happen. He said there is far too much covid about.
They can’t have people spreading covid to their staff.September 22, 2021 at 10:17 #78036Clark
– “He said there is far too much covid about.”
I sympathise with the medical staff. Obviously they want to avoid becoming another infection route, and like firefighters, it’s a danger they constantly face – they are the ones who see the people who don’t get better, or who spend weeks and months fully recovering. And to rub salt in the wound they’ve had considerable abuse from some of the deniers, especially on social media.
The UK is averaging over 140 deaths per day. It should start falling soon but it’s been over 100 for more than a month.September 22, 2021 at 18:50 #78048Pigeon English
Clark ET and MN
I have favour to ask!
Few days ago I made comment that was misunderstood but what I was trying to say in sarcastic way was that (I can not find the title anymore) Economics and all other issues by ET was not broad enough. My intention was to limit Michael, to stay on that post instead starting many more others which take me time to switch between just to read same 3 people commenting. Right now I want to read again something posted on Economics etc.
Sorry but since we are so few commenting I would like it to be at the same place.
In theory would be nice to be segregated and people joining different subjects.September 23, 2021 at 02:41 #78069Clark
Pigeon English, I got that your comment was sarcastic but I understood no more than that, so I didn’t reply.
Yes, it is inconvenient hopping about between threads, especially because the index of the discussion threads doesn’t update the latest comment links properly. But there’s a rule, enforced by the moderators, that comments should be on-topic, so it’s covid on this thread, the new AUKUS military cooperation and nuclear subs on the “New World Shifting to the Indo-Pacific new nuclear powered submarines” thread, and climate change, nuclear power and other energy sources on the “Climate, the science, politics, economics and anything else” thread.
However, if you look at the sidebar on the right, under “Recent Forum Replies”, the three latest comments are listed there, and those links work properly.
I think it’s probably best to keep to the rules because they help the moderators to maintain some order. There are only the three of us at present, but some commenters, especially conspiracy theorists, seem to love derailing threads.September 23, 2021 at 10:38 #78080michael norton
What I would like to be able to understand is the difference between say Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain, France and the U.K. Poland has very little covid.
Italy has had a high proportion of deaths.
Germany seems to be doing quite well.
Now the U.K. is top of the pile for most deaths and most (counted) infections.
Yet, France always has twice as many in I.C.U.
that is the bit I can not understand?September 23, 2021 at 11:58 #78083ET
“Yet, France always has twice as many in I.C.U.”
I tried to answer that MN is a previous post. I think it’s because they report ICU admissions which would include both mechanically ventilated patients and those who need close observation and oxygen support but not ventilation. The UK figures given on the Gov site are for mechanically ventilated patients only. In UK the patients who require close monitoring and oxygen might be in a high dependency unit setting or sapecialised medical covid ward not ICU. I don’t know this for sure but it’s what I suspect is part of it. Also, in French hospital ICUs both ICU and CCU patients share the same space and the same nurses care for both. In the UK CCU is a separate ward with separate nurses. You’d have thought they would separate out those admitted for covid reasons though. I just don’t think the figures are comparing apples with apples in this particular instance. The numbers of deaths are comparable in both France and UK and it doesn’t make sense that the French have much higher covid ventilated patients.September 23, 2021 at 12:28 #78084ET
To be clear, I started that thread “Climate, the science, politics, economics and anything else” to be about climate stuff. The “anything else” was meant to be anything else related to climate change/global warming that Science, politics, economics didn’t cover not simply any other topic. I apologise for the sloppy wording. Many of the replies to CM’s posts had off topic comments related to climate change etc so my intention was to make a home for those kinds of comments (I was under no delusions that it would work). I had hoped more would post but I’m not sure many read these posts in the discussion forums, which is a shame.
As Clark said, I just keep an eye on the “recent forum replies” on the right of the web page. I think it’s best to try to keep different threads on topic otherwise they become too diverse to follow. You could bookmark the link to the expanded discussion forum https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/forums/forum/discussion-forum/ where you can see which threads have the latest replies.September 23, 2021 at 16:22 #78096ET
I stitched together an image of graphs over time comparing France and UK cases, deaths, ICU admissions and hospital admissions using those from ourworldindata.org. It’s not the best image as I had to squash things a bit to get it to fit in one web page for ease of comparison. A french ICU doc/nurse might be able to explain things to us if we had one.
I think not all those French ICU admissions are ventilated and that perhaps patients cared for in non ICU settings in UK might be cared for in ICU in a French setting. I’m not suggesting any difference in quality of care just that things are organised differently in different health care systems.September 23, 2021 at 19:29 #78100michael norton
The U.K. is having startlingly massive numbers of covid positive cases.
Many of them are children, recently returned to school.
So, how come this happens in the U.K. but not in Poland, Germany, Italy, France or Spain?September 24, 2021 at 13:07 #78152ET
“So, how come this happens in the U.K. but not in Poland, Germany, Italy, France or Spain?”
Maybe you can tell us what you think about that MN? You ask many questions but rarely reply to any answers given.September 24, 2021 at 18:46 #78156michael norton
Germany has done 836,725 tests / million.
U.K. has done 4,331,536 tests / million.
So, the U.K. has so far conducted more than five times the rate of Germany.
So, either over testing by U.K. or under testing by Germany.
Chris Whitty has claimed every child will catch covid, unless they are vaccinated, then they still might catch it. The U.K. claims 7,565,864 cases of confirmed covid, Germany claims 4,185,633 cases of confirmed covid. Germany has a much bigger population than does the U.K.
So, either they will have more Delta cases in the coming weeks or they are ignoring covid, in those people who do not show symptoms, or people are more reluctant to get tested for covid in Germany?September 24, 2021 at 20:02 #78159Clark
Michael, I think you’ve identified one of the major reasons for the sort of discrepancies between the figures for various countries that you pointed out earlier.
– “So, either over testing by U.K. or under testing by Germany.”
What do you think the correct level of testing is? Tell me what you think, then I’ll tell you what I think. I suppose a closely related question is, what is the purpose of testing?September 25, 2021 at 01:01 #78160Clark
Or rather (correcting myself as an afterthought), what are the various purposes and benefits of testing?September 25, 2021 at 01:01 #78167Pigeon English
BTW Denmark has 14 mil tests /per million
😀September 25, 2021 at 01:01 #78168Pigeon English
Few weeks ago We went to a funeral to Denmark.
After a funeral some of us went to the restaurant but a young guy did’t have vaccine “passeport” so he was asked
to get a test. Free test was just around a corner. By the time I had 2 cigarrettes and a pint in front of the restaurant he got results on his mobile and we went in. Similar experience my wife had few months ago. She had to take a test before having a lunch in the restaurant. testing was just down the road for free.
No wonder Danes are at 14 mil/mil and death 500/millSeptember 25, 2021 at 02:46 #78177ET
“So, either they will have more Delta cases in the coming weeks or they are ignoring covid”
Or, they just have fewer cases. Have a look here and look at positivity rates and number of tests per confirmed case (and indeed, all the other data sets). France does 70 tests per confirmed case and the UK 30. Looked at it that way you could say France is overtesting compared to UK. The positivity rate is 1.4% in France and 3.3% in UK and 7.5% in Germany.September 25, 2021 at 10:04 #78180michael norton
Clark – September 24, 2021 at 20:02
If you make covid vaccine, you want to keep on making covid vaccine.
If you make covid face masks, you want to keep on making covid face masks.
If you are a private firm, doing covid tests, you want to keep on testing for covid.
Some people/groups have been hanging on to a money tree and they do not want to release their grasp.
As more than three quarters are now effectively immune from death by covid, this pandemic is winding down in Europe.
So far, nearly 90% of people in the U.K. aged 16 and over, have had their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine and more than 82% have had their second.September 25, 2021 at 11:39 #78182Clark
– If you make covid vaccine, you want to keep on making covid vaccine.
– If you make covid face masks, you want to keep on making covid face masks.
– If you are a private firm, doing covid tests, you want to keep on testing for covid.
Maybe we need to reconsider capitalism. It’s true that it motivates a lot of productivity, but everything gets done, not for its own sake but for reasons that aren’t relevant to the activity it motivates.
Michael, beware speaking too soon about the pandemic winding down. That certainly isn’t how it looks to the doctors and medical staff. They get overloaded every winter, and the major part of that is ‘flu and the like. But due to lockdowns, those were nearly absent last winter, so they’re likely to be back with a vengeance this time.
Plus, vaccine immunity fades. This is gradual and there’s no clear line, but the timescale I keep hearing is “about six months”. Because the UK’s vaccine rollout started early, that six months is coming due for a lot of people just as we enter winter and everyone’s indoors. And this winter, it looks like the UK will have trouble keeping the heating on.
We could be deep in the shit; this is not the time to let down our guard.September 25, 2021 at 12:11 #78187michael norton
Clark – September 25, 2021 at 01:01
“As we start to learn from our various responses to covid-19, it is critical that we explore beyond how many tests were completed and which businesses were closed, and consider what efforts were made to address the specific needs of communities on the margins. Guidance documents dating back decades suggested the need for testing to be linked to interventions and the importance of an equity lens given socioeconomic inequities and structural racism. Ultimately, an enduring lesson of covid-19 will be that our strategies didn’t leverage core surveillance principles, and as a result they—either by design or by accident—better protected wealthier communities. And in that, they have been a resounding success.”
It has been obvious to almost everyone that this impacts people who live in houses of multiple occupation, very hard.
It impacts, those who can not afford to lose daily income, possibly meaning they steer clear of testing.
It impacts people (illegal or otherwise) who want nothing to do with officialdom.
It impacts those of very low intelligence.
It impacts those nearing the end of their lives.
But Clark’s question is what are the purposes of covid testing?
I think the main purpose was for the government/NHS to make strategic decisions.September 25, 2021 at 12:48 #78192Clark
Michael, that’s an excellent link, and I thoroughly agree with your observations beneath it.
Testing was eventually deployed, but where was the economic help for the poor and the vulnerable? It is impossible for anyone to take advantage of a test if they have to work or starve, or if there’s no quarantine refuge so they can protect those with whom they share housing.
– “I think the main purpose was for the government/NHS to make strategic decisions.”
I agree, that is how it was used in the UK, whereas in New Zealand, Australia, China and various islands it was used with trace-and-test to suppress community transmission.
In suppression using trace-and-test, the correct number of tests is “enough to test everyone potentially exposed”, and it can be relatively low. In strategic management, it’s “the more, the better”, because more tests always yield more detail of where the virus is spreading and within which demographics.
Strategic management is more expensive than suppression using trace-and-test in every way. It costs more lives, more hospital resources, more tests, more damage to the economy, more time spent under lockdown.September 25, 2021 at 15:17 #78205michael norton
The initial budget for the U.K. Test and Trace service was £15 billion, rising to £22bn in November 2020, and a further £15bn was allocated for 2021–22 to bring the total for the two years to £37bn.
That is BIG MONEY!
Almost all of the work is outsourced to consultants and contractors!September 25, 2021 at 18:20 #78215Pigeon English
I might have quoted on my facebook wrong Data and do not like it.
According to this I am right but if I go to Our World in Data gives me:
According to one cca 90% and the other 75%.
It is a big difference.September 25, 2021 at 20:12 #78217Pigeon English
After checking Michael’s claim of 90% in UK over 18’s and Our World in Data (67%) probably it’s % of total population in Our World in Data. TBH annoying.
Why is Westminster lifting restrictions?
Vaccines are not 100% efficient but nevertheless provide less hospitalisation. If most of the population is vaccinated there will be less hospitalisation (and the system might cope) and people infected with weak symptoms might develop natural immunity. IMHO we gave up eradicating it and are going for herd immunity with manageable deaths. I just hope that vaccinated will be a very small %.
2 weeks ago Denmark lifted all restrictions.
My wife is Danish so we keep an eye on Motherland 😀.September 25, 2021 at 21:06 #78230glenn_nl
Just looking at the thread for the first time in a while, and it appears that not a single conspiracy theorist wants to tackle the fact that all restrictions have been lifted.
Is this just something they want to ignore? Has the Real Conspiracy gone elsewhere now?
It might be useful to tell anti-vaxxers that they have fallen for a real scam perpetrated by the pharmaceutical industry. By encouraging people not to get vaccinated, they are going to make vastly more money out of the drugs needed to treat them when they get ill! Furthermore, a low take-up of vaccine is likely to encourage that vaccines be mandated, so then they’ll get to sell even more of them. Poor fools! They should get vaccinated at once, putting an end to this fiendish lie.
Incidentally – and Clark might be interested in this in particular – a shrink called Lifton came up with a concept in the 1960s called the “Thought terminating cliche”. This would cover phrases like “follow the money”, “do your own research”, “that’s just your opinion”, and so on.
It stops any progression of a discussion in its tracks. They are meant to put the burden of proof straight back onto the opponent, requiring nothing from the individual advancing a non-conventional notion, while implying the questioner of it is lazy, ignorant, probably gullible and lacking in the deep knowledge that allows the proposer to dismiss questions or even debate.
This works very well with cults – it prevents thoughts of a reality-based nature intruding on individuals. Q-Anon is full of this sort of thing, along with the anti-vaxxer, science denying flat-earthers in general.
September 26, 2021 at 10:26 #78251Clark
- This reply was modified 4 weeks ago by degmod.
Glenn_nl, thanks.September 26, 2021 at 11:01 #78253michael norton
So far, in the United Kingdom about 90% of people aged 16 and over have had their first dose of a coronavirus vaccine.
We are now jabbing Secondary age school children.
A couple of days ago, I saw masses of children, in uniform, swanning about, with glee on their faces, the only thing that made sense, was they had been jabbed, then allowed to leave school early.September 26, 2021 at 14:10 #78267ET
“Our World in Data (67%) probably it’s % of total population”
It is, Pigeon English; I guess that way they could make meaningful comparisons. On the other hand, it’s not unreasonable of UK and other countries to quote the percentage of people vaccinated within their targeted population. As they didn’t target under 18s initially I don’t think you can fault how they presented those figures.
“IMHO we gave up eradicating it and are going for herd immunity with manageable deaths.”
I don’t think it’s just your opinion. On the IoM the government stated publically they were moving from an elimination strategy to a mitigation strategy. Look how New Zealand was ridiculed in the MSM for continuing an elimination strategy and also by Australia’s Prime Minister. Ireland’s politicians are saying the same thing, effectively planning for an endemic disease. The world missed its chance to eradicate it (politically if not theoretically).
Clark will say it could still be done and I agree with him but it won’t be.September 26, 2021 at 18:25 #78274michael norton
Russia seems to be doing rather badly, lately.
They now have the highest number of deaths in Europe from/with covid
U.K. covid deaths = 136,168
Russia covid deaths = 203,900
U.K. ICU = 916
Russia ICU = 2,300
U.K. Deaths / million = 1,993
Russia Deaths / million = 1,396September 26, 2021 at 22:39 #78287Clark
It might still be possible to eliminate SARS-CoV-2; it depends how much it has got into animal populations, and how well it transmits back from them.
The real tragedy is that due to late action, millions have become convinced that lockdown is pointless, so if an even nastier variant turns up our major defence will have been undermined.
Serial passage in communities of humanised mice in which only older mice had been vaccinated turned up a variant that was lethal to adolescents and younger. I’m reminded of the plagues that God sent against the Egyptians in the Old Testament.September 27, 2021 at 08:57 #78310michael norton
I went next door, last evening to ask for an onion, the woman told me that all her three children, now have covid, neither the man or woman have been jabbed, they thought they were too young and fit for it to bother them.
I hope they were right, for if they stay living in the same house as their children, they will catch it.September 27, 2021 at 19:32 #78352Pigeon English
Not necessarily. Friend of mine, brother in law had it but wife (friend sister did not).
In his ex wife family similar bizarre events occurred (some people got it others did not) some people he was worried had it easy, other fit and young hard.September 27, 2021 at 19:40 #78354Pigeon English
Antivaxxers fell for the biggest scam of them all. Vaccines are a plot to depopulate the Earth so they are not taking it. Real plot is to get rid off Antivaxxers😂.September 27, 2021 at 23:46 #78358michael norton
The U.K. seems to have very high numbers of covid positive cases compared to the rest of Europe?
U.K. = +37,960
France = +1,309
Germany = +4,814
Poland = +421
Italy = +1,772
Spain = +1,679
Ukraine = +3,007
Makes you wonder why the U.K. is doing so badly?