I am sorry there have been so few posts lately. I am terrifically busy. Yesterday I was up before dawn and back after midnight, having spent the day in Wales. Regular readers will realise that I am working on something I shan’t be able to blog about until it has come to fruition. I was most amused recently by a commenter who called me an “armchair critic.” I shall be in Germany, Brazil, Afghanistan and Ghana in the next two months.
Also I continue to dig into the extraordinary case of Adam Werritty and just why he was holding all those meetings with Matthew Gould, while Gould was Private Secretary to Miliband and then while he was Private Secretary to Hague, and then while he was UK Ambassador to Israel. I have new information, but as I am working on it with someone else quasi-mainstream I shan’t break it before they do. It is a story that really ought to be a television documentary, but given the mainstream media blackout, I was considering whether a podcast format might be a good way to get it further out there. But I need someone who can film it in a reasonably professional way, cutting in pictures, document extracts and interviews in a manner that looks good.
Any ideas or volunteers out there?
Only having some fun, like games of the “guess the connection” type: What do Germany, Brazil, Afghanistan and Ghana have in common that C.M. should visit them all? One guess: GOLD! Hidden Nazi gold looted from their victims, the gold of the hidden city El Dorado, the hidden gold of Ahmad Shah, and Ghana was once called the “Gold Coast”, so I reckon there must be gold there somewhere.
OK, now you have a go. 🙂
Mark
You’re nut a nutter
“Will the Americans really provoke the Iranians into starting a war? This scenario is frighteningly similar to the way the US forced Japan into war by cutting off its supply of raw materials, ”
Really, Write-on? Don’t you want to change it to Write-out, you know, like out yer arse?
It’s fundamental to include some corroboration to your ‘opinions’. Try some contextual history.
http://edsitement.neh.gov/curriculum-unit/road-pearl-harbor-united-states-and-east-asia-1915-1941
“Therefore the 1930s saw a steadily increasing campaign of Japanese aggression in China, beginning with the invasion of Manchuria in 1931 and culminating in the outbreak of full-scale war between the two powers in 1937. Each instance of aggression resulted in denunciations from the United States, but the administrations of the time—that of Herbert Hoover until 1933, and of Franklin D. Roosevelt thereafter-understood that there was no will on the part of the American public to fight a war in East Asia. Therefore U.S. policy by the late 1930s consisted of nothing more than a refusal to recognize Japanese conquests, limited economic sanctions against Japan, and equally limited military and economic assistance for China.”
Will the US really attack Iran? All the indications are there, but the US doesn’t generally attack well armed countries. The last three were Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, all essentially undefended.
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Can the US afford not to attack Iran? The US dollar is already well overstretched; if Iran stops selling oil in dollars the crash of the dollar moves much closer.
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What happens if the US does attack Iran? The US nearly doubled its deficit attacking and occupying Iraq; Iran is, what, ten times better armed?
“Can the US afford not to attack Iran? The US dollar is already well overstretched; if Iran stops selling oil in dollars the crash of the dollar moves much closer.”
As you may know, Saddam made the same mistake in 2000 when he threatened to require Euros.
Oil is still King, long live the King. If you think cutting off oil is not threat to a Nation’s security, you aren’t paying attention.
Dear Ben Franklin,
I fail to see what relevance or context the extract you quote from has for understanding the reasons why the US government wanted to go to war with Japan… apart from making sure that Japanese imperialism didn’t go to far and create an Asian empire that might potentially undermine the plans the US had for their own expansion into Asia, and the really big prize, opening up China?
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The war was triggered, not by limited sanctions aimed at Japan, but by an oil emargo designed to strangle Japan economically for its ‘crimes’ which seem to have been that the US didn’t want Japan to ‘take-over’ the juicy Chinese pie, a pie which the US had its own greedy eye on, and had, for decades, as it steadily expanding across the Pacific, which is why the US attacked the Spanish Empire, a fruit ripe for plucking, more valuable stepping stones towards Asia.
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This is how rival empires behave. They grab what they can for themselves and push other weaker empires, or countries, aside. There’s nothing morally good about any empire, not even the American one.
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There was, if one cares to do a bit of historical research, a peace party in Japan that didn’t believe that Japan could win a war with the United States and that Japan should seek a negotiated ‘deal’ to carve up the Asian pie with the United States. Unfortunately that faction was systematically undermined by the United States who didn’t want peace with Japan, but war, to expand the empire and turn Japan into a vassal state. The US wanted the military and nationalistic war-party to triumph in Japan as this would make war almost inevitible, a war Washington was convinced it would win.
Ben Franklin, Iran’s threat to embargo oil is a response to sanctions; the cheapest, most effective way of solving this problem is to deal reasonably with Iran. Other options look, to me, like economic suicide for the US.
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This is the crux of imperialism; the imperialist powers subvert the state against the interests of its people.
“most effective way of solving this problem is to deal reasonably with Iran.”
Clark;
Considering the bent spine of History between US/Iran, how would you proceed?
One can argue that the US military was ‘defeated’ in both Iraq and Afghanistan, fought to a standstill by determined and lightly-armed militias.
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But, if the object of these seemingly pointless and insane invasions and occupations, was to destroy these countries as states, and create an example, showing exactly what a high price one pays if one defies the empire and threatens its interests, then, arguably, the colossal material destruction and massive loss of life, was worth it. Though I suspect other countries that have valuable resources or a strategically important position, might have learnt a different lesson from the crimes committed in Afghanistan, Irag, Libya and elsewhere.
But I do agree with Ben Franklin that all the wars we’ve seen recently have been fundamentally about access to and control of energy supplies, and the one’s that are coming will be about energy too.
I think the Americans have a pretty obvious strategy, controling the routes, by land and sea, by which China fuels its economy and growth. Control China’s access to energy and raw materials, and ultimately one controls China, at least in theory, unless the Chinese decide to break the enciclement and challenge the US empire.
Though most of my Chinese friends reckon this will take twenty to thirty years befor they are strong enough to seek parity with the US, to which I usually reply, do you really think Washington will give you twenty years?
Ben Franklin: “how would you proceed?”
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Well, a good start might be for Obama to live up to his election promises. But generally, commence negotiation in good faith.
Write-on;
As you know this was an outgrowth of the Russo-Japanese War. Japan had some Imperialism of their own. The US never invaded China, except to rescue diplomats caught up in the Boxer rebellion, which was a response to the British control over opium. I think I object most to your projective ability to excuse the UK for it’s hegemony. I hear a lot of America bashing, but then, you probably stipulate British accountability.
“commence negotiation in good faith.”
Clark; You see BOTH parties capable of accomplishing this simple equation?
Writeon, depriving China of energy in the long-term may prove difficult; they intend to build some of these, that the US was silly enough to give up on in 1969:
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http://energyfromthorium.com/essay3rs/
Ben Franklin, yes, I think its possible. They both have too much to lose otherwise. Are you suggesting that the US is incapable of behaving rationally?
” Are you suggesting that the US is incapable of behaving rationally?”
I don’t know. I was hoping you could tell me.
“I don’t know. I was hoping you could tell me.”
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Now he DOES sound like Larry.
The US would behave rationally if its leaders would stop tricking its voters. Same with the UK. I don’t think Writeon has any more respect for the British elite than that of the US. Sorry for so much US bashing, but I suppose whoever has the biggest stick has to expect that, the lesser powers just get somewhat forgotten.
I think… though this is highly controversial and speculative… that the United States has become something pretty close to a form of military dictatorship, like when the Roman Republic died and the Roman legions became the real power in the empire.
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Of course we may only fully realise this, the change from Republic to Empire, when we look back on events decades from now.
Today the core of the empire the part of the US imperial state that functions properly, is the military, compared to almost any other part of society. The military is a kind of parallel state, or state within a state, with, increasingly, its own, separate culture, economy, and social structure. Obviously the social structure of the military isn’t characterised by being ‘democratic’, but is based on a rigid, semi-fuedal, form of hierachy, that many would describe as totalitarian.
Increasingly the military, which has the closest links with the corporations and the political establishment, has ‘interests’ of its own that don’t necessarily follow those of the rest of civilian society, even though, in theory the military is under civilian control and is funded by civilian taxes.
But increasinlgy the US military is on a different trajectory to the rest of society, almost like a parasite that has swallowed its host. The real economy is shrinking, living standards for ordinary Americans have fallen for decades, yet the military budget keeps growing and growing eating more and more of the national pie, because it ‘protects’ the people, and it’s this increasingly bizarre ‘social contract’ or relationship, that reminds me of the fuedal relationship between the medieval Knight class and the peasants.
I certainly think that Iran would negotiate in good faith; they are considerably the weaker party, and their (limited) progress towards democracy (again) bodes well. Oh, there would be lots of screechy religious posturing against Israel, and Israel would respond with similar noises, but I think the oil could be kept flowing, because it is in the interests of both sides.
I am certainly not bashing America or Americans, on the contrary, I like Americans and America. My second wife was American and two of my children live there. What I’m ‘bashing’ is ‘Washington’ and the ruthless, greedy, ‘ruling class’ that are destroying the ‘American Dream’ underming the futures of most people, wasting billions on foreign wars when the money would be better spent on creating jobs, raising living standards for working people, and re-building the country’s infrastructure instead.
I think the country’s been taken over by what ammounts to an ‘aristocracy’ that’s supported by a military/industrial machine, and that rebublican democracy has been pushed aside by an empire, that for various reasons doesn’t give a damn about the ordinary folks in the US, and frankly doesn’t even need them anymore as it expands globally.
Clark;
‘The US would behave rationally if its leaders would stop tricking its voters. ”
Are you thinking this is a new phenomenon? That’s the way it’s always been. Why is there so many of the Elites trying to limit access to the internet? (SOPA/PIPA)
They are getting their asses handed to them every day, because the old 24-hour news cycle is now 24 seconds and they don’t like to operate in the light of day. It’s very inconvenient to get calls from your constituency about your questionable legislative activity before you’ve actually accomplished the skullduggery.
Thanks for clarifying, Writeon. I second that thought.
Ben Franklin, no, the duplicity of the rulers (US and worldwide) is nothing new. However, it is becoming critically important.
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Ben, a US attack on Iran looks like economic insanity to me, given what the attack on Iraq did to the US coffers. Do you think the US economy would survive? Is it not madness to even consider it?
Anon 24 Jan, 2012 – 7:46 pm
“OK so you think I am a nutter? – notice how ‘Occupy’ has been savagely put down?”
I agree with Angrysoba – if you want to see savage put downs might I suggest you look at Syria, where Assad among other attrocities has even shelled a Palestiniann refugee camp.
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Could we please have a source for that piece of black propaganda.
Whilst the bloggers are naval gazing and asking will the war on Iran happen or will it not, thus pondering in the wake of the latest rounds of European sanctions on Iranian oil; Coryton is the elephant in the room.
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Billy fourteen pints, on his tour of the capitals practising his Churchillian poses forgot; thou shalt not shoot thine toe, edict. Hence, reiterating the extent of the inexperience of the current ruling coalition; falling victim to the machinations of zionist sponsors of Fox, Werrity, Gould. The drunk on power newcomers, would never have dreamt their grandstanding can come back to bite them on the arse so fast.
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Petroplus, Europe’s largest independent refiner, said it will file for insolvency as talks with lenders to resume funding failed. Lenders suspended about $1 billion of uncommitted credit lines in December and denied access to a further $1.05 billion of committed loans this month. That forced Petroplus to halt three of its European refineries and run the remaining two, in England and Germany, at reduced capacity.
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Have we witnessed the first sanction that hurt the “sanctioneers” before hurting the “sanctioned” could have been pulled off by the current shower masquerading as the ruling coalition?
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Given the tight credit environment and the degrees of risk aversion practises engaged in by the banking sector, the plug was pulled on Coryton. To further illustrate the point; refineries are designed for processing around the particular grades of hydrocarbons, and the impending shortages of the Iranian crude in the European markets, was the last straw that broke the back of the beleaguered lame group of refineries.
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You read this here first, no one else is even hinting at this story. Apparently, refiners can go bust for no reason everyday. This is to protect the incompetent bunch of bastards who thought they can swing their dick around and not get it caught in a mangle, well miscalculation or what?
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On the day the UK debt hits one trillion pounds (remind me what is our GDP), unemployment soaring, and bank of England presses are set to roll printing more fiat money to pay for the costs of the adventures in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, etc. the news of people having to pay more for their fuel, because some tweets bought into the paranoia of a bunch of psychotic zionists somehow does not get out, and the punters are left to fathom it out on their own, in the media blackout.
” Is it not madness to even consider it?”
Clearly. But the prime mover, Israel, seems now to be doubting their own intel, and last I heard was backing off the BOMB rhetoric. The Jewish lobby here is strong, and aided by End-Timers of the Christian Right (I throw-up a little in my mouth when I refer to them as ‘Christian) so Obama
has been tickling the dragon’s tail to keep them mollified.
Hmmm, “tickling the dragon’s tail” is what killed Louis Slotin:
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demon_core#Second_incident
There is obviously a knock on effect of the USUKIs confrontation with Iran, but Petroplus’s problems go back some time. They have been attempting to sell refineries and three in Europe were shut down on Dec 30. The smart alecs have come a cropper.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/swiss-refiner-petroplus-filing-for-insolvency-lenders-appoint-receiver-for-uk-refinery/2012/01/24/gIQAdgjsMQ_story.html
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‘Employees were working at the refinery as normal but no shipments of refined products were being made, a condition imposed by the lenders, Margrave said.
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Refinery profitability has been squeezed as operating expenses and the cost of crude oil rose faster than the value of the products, and the economic slowdown in Europe has added to the pressure.
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A survey by energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie in 2010 found that 29 of 96 refineries in the European Union did not generate a positive net cash margin.’
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All part of the coming economic crash.
Clark;
I think ‘good faith’ needs to be shown by Iran. A good place to start would be the Parliamentary elections in March…
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/world/middleeast/boycott-by-reformers-could-undermine-elections-in-iran.html
“Despite assertions by the leaders that reformist candidates will be allowed to participate in the parliamentary elections, to be held in March, the two principal reformist opposition figures in Iran, Mir Hussein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi, both former presidential candidates, remained under house arrest for most of 2011, their supporters say, and both are urging followers to stay away from the polls.
Even Iran’s mildly reform-minded former president, Mohammad Khatami, who has not been treated as harshly by the government, said in December that reformist candidates would not run in the March elections. That would create a glaring gap that could prove worrisome in providing the appearance of a choice of candidates, and undermine the quest for legitimacy.
“It was expected that the conditions would be granted so that the reformists could participate in the elections, but the conditions were not met,” Mr. Khatami was quoted as saying in Iranian news accounts.”
Ben: “Israel seems now to be doubting their own intel, and last I heard was backing off the BOMB rhetoric.”
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Got a link for that please?