I listened live to Putin’s speech yesterday with great interest. Here is my own analysis, for what it is worth.
Putin was strongest in his accusations of western hypocrisy. His ironic welcoming of the West having suddenly discovered the concept of international law was very well done. His analysis of the might is right approach the West had previously adopted, and their contempt of the UN over Iraq and Afghanistan, was spot on. Putin also was absolutely right in describing the Kosovo situation as “highly analogous” to the situation in Crimea. That is indeed true, and attempts by the West – including the Guardian – to argue the cases are different are pathetic exercises in special pleading.
The problem is that Putin blithely ignored the enormous logical inconsistency in his argument. He stated that the Crimean and Kosovo cases were highly analogous, but then used that to justify Russia’s action in Crimea, despite the fact that Russia has always maintained the NATO Kosovo intervention was illegal(and still refuses to recognize Kosovo). In fact of course Russia was right over Kosovo, and thus is wrong over Crimea.
I was very interested that Putin made distinct reference to the appalling crimes against the Tartars in the 1930’s, but also to the terrible suffering of Ukrainians in that period. His references were not detailed but their meaning was clear. I was surprised because under Putin’s rule there has been a great deal of rehabilitation of Stalin. Archives that were opened under glasnost have frozen over again, and history in Russian schools now portrays Stalin’s foreign policy achievement much more than his crimes (and it is now again possible to complete your Russian school education with no knowledge the Stalin-Hitler pact ever happened). So this was both surprising and positive. Designed to be positive was his assurance that Crimea will be trilingual. We will see what happens; Putin’s Russia is in fact not tolerant of its ethnic populations in majority Russian areas, and in fact contains a great many more far right thugs than Ukraine – probably about the same percentage of the population.
The 97% referendum figure is simply unbelievable to any reasonable person and is straight out of the Soviet playbook – it was strange to see Putin going in and out of modern media friendly mode and his audience, with their Soviet en brosse haircuts and synchronized clapping – obviously liked the Soviet bits best.
The attempt to downplay Russia’s diplomatic isolation was also a bit strange. He thanked China, though China had very pointedly failed to support Russian in the Security Council. When you are forced to thank people for abstaining, you are not in a strong position diplomatically. He also thanked India, which is peculiar, because the Indian PM yesterday put out a press release saying Putin had called him, but the had urged Putin to engage diplomatically with the interim government in Kiev, which certainly would not be welcome to Putin. I concluded that Putin was merely trying to tell his domestic audience Russia has support, even when it does not.
But what I find really strange is that the parts of the speech I found most interesting have not drawn any media comment I can see. Putin plainly said that in his discussions with Kuchma on the boundaries of Ukraine after the collapse of the Soviet Union, they hadn’t wanted to open any dispute with what they expected to be a friendly neighbor, and that therefore the boundaries of Ukraine had never been finally demarcated. He said twice the boundaries had not been demarcated. That seemed to indicate a very general threat to Eastern Ukraine. He also spoke of the common heritage of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine in a way that indicated that he did not accept that Ukraine might choose a political future away from Russia.
Secondly, he said that on the day the Soviet Union broke up, Russians in many places had “woken up to find themselves in a foreign country.” Again from the context in which he said it, this referred not just to Crimea, and not just even to the rest of Ukraine, but to Russian nationals all over the Former Soviet Union. I would be worrying a lot about this part of the speech if I was Kazakh, to give just one example. Putin seemed to be outlining a clear agenda to bring Russian speaking areas of CIS countries back in to Mother Russia – indeed, I see no other possible interpretation of his actions in Georgia and Ukraine.
I think that we should start listening much more carefully to what he says. I also think that the weakness of the EU’s response to events gives Putin a very dangerous encouragement to pursue further aggrandizement. I posted a few days ago:
The EU I expect to do nothing. Sanctions will target a few individuals who are not too close to Putin and don’t keep too many of their interests in the West. I don’t think Alisher Usmanov and Roman Abramovic need lose too much sleep, that Harrods need worry or that we will see any flats seized at One Hyde Park. (It is among my dearest wishes one day to see One Hyde Park given out for council housing.) Neither do I expect to see the United States do anything effective; its levers are limited.
The truth is of course that the global political elite are in the pockets of the global financial elite, and while ordinary Russians are still desperately poor, the money the oligarchs rip out of Russia’s backward commodity exporting economy is parceled around the world financial system in ways that make it impossible for the western political classes to do anything. Whose funds would the hedge fund managers look after? Whose yacht could Mandelson and Osborne holiday on?
Personally I should like to see a complete financial freeze on the entire Russian oligarchy. The knock on effects would only hurt a few bankers, and city types and those who depend on them (cocaine dealers, lap dancers, Porsche dealers, illegal domestic servants). Sadly we shan’t see anything happen. They won’t let Eton go bust.
To the Troll
If you want to know what the vast majority of the families think about 9/11 may I suggest you look here
http://911families.org/
I would recommend the educational materials.
The list to which you link is of 300 people not 300 families – you are being your normal misleading self by trying to portray this as the collective or even majority view of the 9/11 families. It is not.
To the best of my knowledge Putin has not changed his view on 9/11 and I don’t think the subject was even mentioned until you raised it as a diversionary tactic – and then displayed hypocrisy by accusing me of diversion.
Resident Dissident; “The intimidation of the Russian troops was necessary so that the referendum could be held”
Err no, the troop were already there ! Maybe you mean the presence of the troops ensured that the the population of the Crimea were free to exercise their democratic right to vote, without the threat of spoiling attacks by Western sponsored stooges ?
Resident Dissident; “not to influence the result which I agree was a foregone conclusion in the circumstances created by their illegal invasion”
Which “illegal invasion” ? Maybe you meant to write “Coup” instead of “invasion”
Resident Dissident; “As for you script re Uzbek I think that it just further exemplifies your bullying – you create a strawman regarding Uzbek’s position”
The only bullying is actually coming from Uzbek, with his “MAD Lefies” slurs at everybody to browbeat & intimate them ! I know that you have lots of experience with strawman arguments, so I’m not very surprised that you have now lost the ability to distinguish between them & logical argumentation.
John, regardless of what Pilots for 9/11 “truth” might think Lear categorically states that he does not believe any planes struck the WTC. He must therefore believe that every photograph, every image, every scrap of film and videotape of the impacts and over 3,000 deaths have been faked. Do you seriously believe that is rational?
Err no, the troop were already there !
Maybe they were but they were confined to the bases and areas were they were allowed to operate in accordance with internationally endorsed agreements – taking off their Russian army insignia and invading areas where they were not permitted was clearly an illegal act of force.
A common feature of bullies is that they feel that they have the right to set out their victims position – just look at what you wrote.
“Maybe you mean the presence of the troops ensured that the the population of the Crimea were free to exercise their democratic right to vote, ”
Is that an attempt at sarcasm? Under the agreement Russian forces were supposed to be confined to their bases not roaming the countryside taking over airports and laying siege to government buildings. As for a referendum organised and supervised by an interested party, in this case one heavily armed, ever being free and fair you really are having a laugh aren’t you?
To the sock puppeteer.
“The list to which you link is of 300 people not 300 families”. That’s right, it is, as it says, survivors and families. It was a mistake not a deliberate attempt to mislead.
Your own link is, I’m sure, a good source of support for those of the victims’ families who believe the official version without question. But if you noticed on the link I gave there were a whole lot more highly professional people who question the official version as well as the 300+ survivors and families.
220+ Senior Military, Intelligence Service, Law Enforcement, and Government Officials
1,500+ Engineers and Architects
250+ Pilots and Aviation Professionals
400+ Professors Question 9/11
300+ 9/11 Survivors and Family Members
200+ Artists, Entertainers, and Media Professionals
400+ Medical Professionals
On top of that there are smaller groups but still with specialist expertise like the Firemen for 9/11 truth. According to one report 85% of Americans do not believe the official version yet still no Inquiry. Why not?
Resident Dissident & Kempe,
The majority population of the Crimea are Russians, who have the right as codified in the UN Charter to seek self-determination; this they were able to do, unhindered & in safely, thanks to the presence of Russian troops; what is the real practical difference this “Yes” vote has with the “Yes” vote that everybody agrees would have been the inevitable result, regardless of the whetever Russian troops were there or not ?
Is this non difference really worth all this hostilities, all these sanctions, even possible war ?!! Are our leaders & politicians completely mad ?!!
Well at least one mad leftie is not as mad as our mad lefties!
http://www.leninology.com/2014/03/against-imperialist-intervention-in.html
Kempe at 9.44 pm. If what struck 9/11 were drones then no plane did strike. Those who have done the calculations, same website, say that the speed of whatever hit the twin towers was too fast to be 767s. Also many people believe they were too small to be 767s. I am no expert and leave such things to those who know.
Macky
Is this non difference really worth all this hostilities
The only ones using hostility in the Crimea were the Russians – so if Putin wants to use the same technique to annex parts of Eastern Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic republics you would have no concern, or if Israelis were to do the same with parts of the West Bank, and goodness knows who could claim parts of nearly every other country in the Middle East given the pretty artificial nature of boundaries there etc.etc. And what about the protection of minority rights in those reclaimed territories. And what about the treaties previously signed by Russia where the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons in return for Russia, the UK and US (and France?) guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Crimea??
Yes I fear Putin will get away with it – but commonsense says that he needs to know that there is a price for doing so, if only to stop him and others doing it again. I think you should also understand that much liberal Russian opinion is appalled by what Putin has done and fears for the resultant wave of Russian nationalism that it will inevitably release.
Resident Dissident; “Well they didn’t in 1992”
Are you spreading misinformation ?
“On January 20, 1991, Crimeans voted to restore their ties with Russia by almost the same percentage (93.2%) we saw in today’s election—where, according to the BBC, 93% of Crimean voters once again voted Russian”
http://pando.com/2014/03/17/the-war-nerd-everything-you-know-about-crimea-is-wrong-er/
“yet still no Inquiry. Why not?”
Not true
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9/11_Commission
What you meant is that there has been on enquiry whose membership was made up of people like yourself (who have publicly stated their hatred of the US Govt) who have reached the a different conclusion based on far less access to the evidence.
Macky
Might I suggest that you look at the 1992 vote on Ukraine’s independence rather than a vote taken before the break up of the Soviet Union. I have posted the link many times.
Thanks for that link Macky. Obviously somebody who knows what he’s talking about. It is good to have a voice of reason like that of Gary Brecher’s in this topsy-turvy world of MSM lies, half lies and disinformation.
Macky
And do you really believe that c40% of Ukrainians and Tatars in the Crimea willing voted to join Russia as would be indicated by the turnout and voting figures in last week’s referendum? Are you really that gullible?
“What you meant is that there has been on enquiry whose membership was made up of people like yourself (who have publicly stated their hatred of the US Govt) who have reached the a different conclusion based on far less access to the evidence”.
The commission was a farce and you know it. There has not been a proper Inquiry called for by these people who cannot possibly be described as hating the US like I do.
220+ Senior Military, Intelligence Service, Law Enforcement, and Government Officials
1,500+ Engineers and Architects
250+ Pilots and Aviation Professionals
400+ Professors Question 9/11
300+ 9/11 Survivors and Family Members
200+ Artists, Entertainers, and Media Professionals
400+ Medical Professionals
Should their views be ignored?
What it really boils down to is that people like you, and all your socks, do not want an Inquiry because the result will show that the war on terror was a farce designed to steal oil, 9/11 was the biggest false-flag to date. Osama Bin Laden is a pariah created by the west who had no involvement in 9/11 (he says). Is he dead? Don’t you believe honest men when they speak?
http://www.globalresearch.ca/interview-with-osama-bin-laden-denies-his-involvement-in-9-11/24697
“The commission was a farce and you know it.”
No I don’t – its conclusion was critical of the failings of the CIA – and you told a bare faced lie in saying that there was no enquiry, for which you lack the good grace to apologise. I wonder what other lies you have told? Do the ends justify the means?
Don’t you believe honest men when they speak?
I do – but as already proven tonight you are not honest, at least on this subject.
Resident Dissident; “The only ones using hostility in the Crimea were the Russians”
The Crimean Referendum cannot be looked at in isolation, and divorced from the Western supported bloodly Coup in the Ukraine, that was rather hostile ! The Referendum was the direct consequence of the Coup; context is everything; the presence of Russian troops ensured that pro-Russian majority population were able to decide their own future democratically, and these troops should be congratulated for the minimal violence that has occurred in the Crimea, especially when set against the bloodbath in Kiev.
“so if Putin wants to use the same technique to annex parts of Eastern Ukraine, Moldova and the Baltic republics….etc”
Do any of these places have a pro-Russian majority or are you scaremongering ? If any do, and they vote democratically for union with Russia, what is the problem ?
“what about the protection of minority rights in those reclaimed territories”
? The same as for those inside the Russian Federation already, obviously.
“And what about the treaties previously signed by Russia where the Ukrainians gave up nuclear weapons in return for Russia, the UK and US (and France?) guaranteeing the territorial integrity of Crimea?”
The illegal coup in Kiev has made all such treaties null & void, obviously; the fascists in Kiev are talking about having nuclear weapons back.
“Yes I fear Putin will get away with it – but commonsense says that he needs to know that there is a price for doing so, if only to stop him and others doing it again”
You mean the people of the Crimea have managed to exercise their democratic right for self-determination, and you are advocating that to discourage other people in the same situation, Russian needs to be punish for the “crime” of ensuring the rights of the Crimean people !
“think you should also understand that much liberal Russian opinion is appalled by what Putin has done and fears for the resultant wave of Russian nationalism that it will inevitably release”
Speculation without supporting references ?
Here a little joke for you;
The US paid at least 5 billion dollars to enable Crimea to return to Russia. 🙂
RD, people, good, well-educated people are calling for an Inquiry against the findings of the US government commission, the findings of which hardly anybody with commonsense believes. That is why they want an Inquiry. Now do you understand?
Good joke Macky
“The US paid at least 5 billion dollars to enable Crimea to return to Russia. :)”
And they will be spending a lot more to have elections in Ukraine (if they ever materialise) which might well see a vote against Yatsenyuk’s neo-Nazi illegally-imposed government. The internet is a means of spreading information and just because we don’t get to hear about Catherine Ashton’s conversation with Urmas Paet on our MSM that the decent Ukrainians will not be able to put wo and two together as to why there has been no Inquiry about who started the shooting on the streets of Kiev. I hope the Ukrainians do the right thing.
Ian Pannell today from Crimea :”These are the pictures the Kremlin don’t want you to see.”
We didn’t see many of the dead in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan or Syria.
These were the pictures the US/UK didn’t want you to see.
So the BBfuckinC didn’t show them.
Come on RD…geez a break…. and can you or anyone else, explain how a full scale theater war can be planned, and executed in mere weeks.
At eleven o’clock, on the morning of September 11, the Bush adminstration had already announced that Al Qaeda was responsible for the attacks on the World Trade Center (WTC) and the Pentagon. This assertion was made prior to the conduct of an indepth police investigation.
That same evening at 9:30 pm, a “War Cabinet” was formed integrated by a select number of top intelligence and military advisors. And at 11:00 pm, at the end of that historic meeting at the White House, the “War on Terrorism” was officially launched.
The decision was announced to wage war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda in retribution for the 9/11 attacks. The following morning on September 12th, the news headlines indelibly pointed to “state sponsorship” of the 9/11 attacks. In chorus, the US media was calling for a military intervention against Afghanistan. Barely four weeks later, on the 7th of October, Afghanistan was bombed and invaded by US troops.Americans were led to believe that the decison to go to war had been taken on the spur of the moment, on the evening of September 11, in response to the attacks and their tragic consequences.
Little did the public realize that a large scale theater war is never planned and executed in a matter of weeks. The decision to launch a war and send troops to Afghanistan had been taken well in advance of 9/11. The “terrorist, massive, casualty-producing event” as it was later described by CentCom Commander General Tommy Franks, served to galvanize public opinion in support of a war agenda which was already in its final planning stage.
Macky
So if the Syrian Shia or Kurds could make a case that Assad was a fascist (well at least that part would be easier than with Euromaidan) who was supported by foreign powers (tick – Russia and Iran) then it would be ok for foreign troops to invade (providing they took off their insignia beforehand) so that the Syrian Shia and Kurds could hold the necessary referendums? If you cannot see that this is the way to madness then might I suggest that you are already there.
“what about the protection of minority rights in those reclaimed territories”
? The same as for those inside the Russian Federation already, obviously.
Somehow I don’t think they will find that very reassuring – you really have no idea about what is happening in Russia
http://www.interpretermag.com/putins-support-for-federalism-and-ethnic-russians-in-ukraine-creating-problems-for-moscow-at-home/
You can look at that site and its links if you want a better understanding of liberal Russian opinion – but I very much doubt you do.
Brian
Afghanistan was not bombed and invaded by the US troops 4 weeks later – it was only bombed and sadly I can well believe that 4 weeks is sufficient to arrange the bombing.
John Goss
It is fairly clear that there was shooting on the streets of Kyiv well before the shootings which Ashton discussed. You don’t really have a clue as to what was happening at Euromaidan and the other demonstrations throughout the Ukraine and are just clutching at the line manufactured by the KGB to justify the actions of Putin and his corrupt friends. How much do you think Russia has paid over the years to support its puppets in the Ukraine and elsewhere – where were your complaints when they turned off the gas in the heart of winter? This has been going on for many many years – and all the time the useful idiots and fellow travellers out of hatred of the West and old time nostalgia for the Soviet Union have just enjoyed the ride and said nothing whatsoever since they have no sense of shame.
Mary harumphs
“I do not like being cross questioned here as if it is some court of law.”
________________________
In other words, you believe that you’re infallible and that everything you opine is ex cathedra.
If you post on a blog like this, you must expect to be questioned. It’s part of the ‘deal’, surely. Everyone else on here seems to accept this, so why can’t you?
Dreadful denigration of Putin and warmongering on Sky News just now from the execrable Robert Fox of the Evening Standard. No irony in the fact that his paymaster at the Evening Standard is one of the Russian oligarchs who bled the Russian people dry and stole their resources.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Lebedev
No challenges were made by the presenter Gillian Joseph to his right wing views or by the other guest reviewer of the Sunday papers.
Fox would be at home on Fox News another tentacle of Murdoch’s empire.
All the evil of the war(s) on terrrrr flowed from 9/11. What more needs to be said.