42 thoughts on “Surefire Prediction

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  • nevermind

    Apparently there are police road blocks errected outside Blackburn, to stop foreign TV crews, any other than Blackburn journalists, reporting the truth, any pictures of chaps with heavy bags full of postal votes will be confiscated, not seen on anyone’s TV.

    Blacburn cathedral is drenched in blood red and all council workers are asked to wear their best red outfit, or be sacked by Ms Holden.

  • nevermind

    To be expected from Blackburn’s thuggies, Ba’al.

    I have met Booby Anwar who helped the Independent campaign of Bushra Irfan, he is a political active young man who feels that voters have choices.

    This attack, imho., was, most likely, perpetrated by Labours thugs. Fact is that Labour and Tories both fear the loss of credible votes they so long have manipulated.

    Look what daddy can do young Will, thats how he keeps his roost from being used by other birds.

  • nevermind

    Police standing there does represent nothing but extra arguments. Police were stationed in Blackburn, their instructions were ‘not to interfere’. Outside one polling station, they had set up a furniture van, plastered with Labour posters and with open back full of party activist, jeering on those going to vote, the moment we, the Independents, questioned this, the police was there asking us not to create a nuisance as they would have to act.

    There were activist in long coats standing along the entrance to the poling station, intimidating voters in Urdu, and people coming out of the polling station said they were intimidated by the rowdy crowd.

    I predict the same ion Luton and Leicester and Birmingham

  • Mary

    Are statistics given for:

    number of postal votes

    number of spoiled votes

    ??

    Whoever got the printing contract for the SE EU ballot paper did well. It was half of an A2.

  • Iain Orr

    What are the rules for how postal ballots are counted? My memory of Blackburn with Craig is that the method of counting does not allow the identification of the numbers of postal ballots cast for each party in each polling station/ ward – as would be one way to help identify patterns and numbers suggesting possible postal ballot fraud.

  • Juteman

    And the postal votes get ‘lost’, in case anyone wants a re-count.
    At least that is what happens in Fife.

  • Mary

    Robinson is orgasmic about Theresa and the Police Federation. He obviously likes his women tough and bossy.

    Nick Robinson Political editor
    More from Nick
    Police – change or be changed
    20 hours ago
    No minister has spoken to the Police Federation like Theresa May did. No-one has dared.
    BBC Website politics page today.

    ~~

    On Twitter, some people have got him sussed.
    https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/469226641487843328

  • nevermind

    In Blackburn 2010, according to the officer in charge, some 2000 postal votes disappeared, most likely they voted for candidate Bushra Irfan.
    Hope this helps Ian, below from the ECommissions site

    http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/105896/Plymouth-GE2010-report-web.pdf

    “Rallings & Thrasher
    13
    Once again there is considerable variation between constituencies in
    both the number and proportion of ballot papers rejected, and in the reasons for rejection. In Blackburn over 1,700 ballots (nearly 4% of
    the total) were rejected; in Buckingham, where the Speaker stood for re-election with nomajor party opposition, more than 1,000
    ballots were disqualified. In London a total of nearly 800 votes were ruled out for voting more than once in the two Tower Hamlets seats of Bethnal Green and Bow, and Poplar and Limehouse alone. At the other extreme, in 24 constituencies fewer than 50 votes were rejected, including 35 in Filton and Bradley Stoke and 36 in its South Gloucestershire council neighbour Kingswood. It is likely both that returning officers differ in their judgements about the admissibility of ballots, and that electors in some constituencies maybe more prone to making errors than those in others.”

  • larry Levin

    my anti virus would not let me onto this site saying it was dangerous

    “f-Secure” from virgin media

  • JR Quigley

    Postal voting is a disgrace.

    Introducing fixed terms and thereby moving the General Election to a fixed date should have been seen the postal vote abolished – if you can’t organise to available on a specific day 5 years in advance then you don’t deserve the vote. The same for the (fixed) European elections.

    It may not to be to your taste Craig but I would make a further prediction that UKIP will “win” the election on votes cast today but find themselves trounced when the postal votes are tallied.

    A national disgrace.

  • Herbie

    This is how you run a Buffer Zone. No danger of any Western Colour Revolutions here.

    The people are well behaved. There’s no litter, no violence, no immigrants, no brown fellas, well yeah, apart from Denis Rodman.

    A perfect UKIP paradise, nearly.

    Love the Mercs flashing by the bicycles and people, across that long bridge:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D4hLctBvojE

  • Resident Dissident

    Craig

    Given Blackburn was not in the top 20 of constituencies for postal voting in 2010 I think you will find you have lost your bet already.

    See pg 9 of the attached report from the Electoral Commission

    http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC8QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.electoralcommission.org.uk%2F__data%2Fassets%2Fpdf_file%2F0011%2F105896%2FPlymouth-GE2010-report-web.pdf&ei=Xm5-U5n9FOXe7AaovYDQCg&usg=AFQjCNHf4mZg1x_zdAlqXy4ADwb-CekNaw&sig2=aL13l2rmgL4uvpwjPCOKcw

  • Scouse Billy

    Quigley, you’re clearly a bit thick – I didn’t say I was disabled.

  • Jives

    Craig,

    If its so obvious-and i don’t doubt you-surely there must be a watchdog that could examine this?

  • Chris

    Since the post raises the spectre of vote-rigging, here is what happened to me yesterday: Despite being registered as an EU citizen on the council’ electoral roll, I was refused permission to vote for the EP. Apparently I would have had to make a separate application to be registered for the EP election. Importantly, the Council would have been expected to send out the requisite application form (‘UC1’) automatically to all EU citizens on the electoral roll. However, I am 100% certain I never received this form from the Council. Honest mistake or deliberate suppression of the ‘EU citizen vote’???

  • Ba'al Zevul (Going Postal)

    R4 Today programme managed to cover several minutes’ worth of election twaddle without once mentioning the Greens. Funny, dat.

    BTW, now Royal Mail has been given away to The Market, wonder what impact that might have on manipulating postal ballots?

  • Ba'al Zevul (Going Postal)

    This seems to have been pretty general:

    http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-London/2014/05/22/EXCLUSIVE-Numerous-Breaches-of-Election-Rules-At-Polling-Stations-Across-Tower-Hamlets

    “Metropolitan Police looked on as rules on interacting with voters were ignored. We spoke to police officers and Presiding Officers in charge of individual polling stations who all seemed unclear on what rules needed to be enforced. They were clearly unfamiliar with either the Representation of the People Act 1983, or guidelines by the Electoral Commission.

    At one polling station in Smithy Street School a Labour Party activist with a rosette was acting as an usher to voters inside the polling station. When we asked her what role she was performing, she described herself as “working for the council as a volunteer”. After some questioning and deliberation the Presiding Officer threw us out, but allowed her to continue working inside the polling station as long as she took her rosette off.”

    However it should be remembered that Tower Hamlets is something of a democratic plague spot…

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/may/21/tower-hamlets-mayor-lutfur-rahman-accusations

  • Mary

    O/T *anking News

    The FCA is due to make an announcement shortly about a large fine (said to be in the region of £20m) for Barclays on illegalities in the fixing of the gold price. How about some time in the chokey for a change? £20m is just a fleabite to them.

    This goes back to the time of the Diamond Geezer. Apparently five leading banks sit down together every afternoon to agree the price. Another YCNMIU.

    Today HSBC have their AGM and there will be a fight between the board and the shareholders on the extensive bonuses to be announced.

  • Briar

    “R4 Today programme managed to cover several minutes’ worth of election twaddle without once mentioning the Greens. Funny, dat.” I bet they gave a healthy shot of publicity to UKIP though. Funny how the media are united in seeing Farage as the natural repository of protest votes – doubtless because he is safely (far) right wing and won’t rock the Atlanticist, neoliberal consensus, however much those who have suffered from globalisation turn to him.

  • Clark

    Chris, 7:44 am; I haven’t had to fill out any additional form that I remember. I get the usual regular electoral registration forms, pre-printed with my details just requiring my signature before sending back. I received a polling card about a month ago.

  • Anon

    “R4 Today programme managed to cover several minutes’ worth of election twaddle without once mentioning the Greens. Funny, dat.” I bet they gave a healthy shot of publicity to UKIP though.”

    Perhaps the media spotlight is on UKIP because they are making huge gains in the local elections? Just a thought.

    “Funny how the media are united in seeing Farage as the natural repository of protest votes – doubtless because he is safely (far) right wing and won’t rock the Atlanticist, neoliberal consensus, however much those who have suffered from globalisation turn to him.”

    He is the current repository. The media want nothing more than votes for the main three, not UKIP, which they smear at every opportunity. Where have you been the past few months?

    As for Atlanticism I think Farage has made it clear he does not want to kowtow to America just as he doesn’t want to the EU. That is what separates him from the likes of Daniel Hannan and most Tory Eurosceptics and why they will never defect to UKIP.

  • Abe Rene

    Why not go to Blackburn to listen to Jack Straw’s election meetings? One may be treated to a free meal with ice cream, and the authorities will look the other way, everyone’s happy. 🙂

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