Iran Breakthrough 117


I am really very pleased at the agreement reached with Iran. Coming as it does against a background of widespread and Western exacerbated Sunni/Shia conflict, it is one of very few hopeful recent international developments.

Liberalisation of Iranian society continues to go forward at an achingly slow pace. The human rights situation, role of the military and theological power structure remain, frankly, appalling. But insofar as there is movement, it is for improvement. Normalisation of its international situation will certainly help.
Taking the long view, Iran is the classical case of a great culture perverted to destruction by western power interference and the reaction to it. But I believe the enormous potential of the Iranian people will now start to reassert itself.

The danger of course is the Zionist militarists in Congress and the US media who will do all in their power to scupper any peaceful move. But for once, Bush’s extension of executive power might do some actual good. There is a parallel danger in Iran. The Iraq War was totally unjustified and illegal, but Saddam Hussein might nonetheless have evaded it had he boxed a bit more cleverly and allowed some foolish inspectors to wander around his palaces prodding at the teaspoons. Yes the inspections regimes will be galling, even humiliating. But patience will have its rewards. There is real danger though that the hardliners on the Iranian side will be able to muster sufficient local points of power to hamper inspections, thus giving the US and Israeli hardliners an opportunity.


117 thoughts on “Iran Breakthrough

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  • Mehrnaz

    There will not be automatic access to military sites for inspection. Any such case of “request” for access should be with evidence of concern for the implementation of the JPA. Unlike you, Craig, I sincerely hope that there will be enough force from the ‘hardliners’ and real patriots in Iran to carefully examine and challenge unreasonable demands for access based on fabricated evidence or shoddy pretexts.

  • Habbabkuk (la vita e' bella)

    “..instead they should yay or nay, like braying donkeys, whilst of course quaffing huge amounts of champagne…”

    ______________________

    Actually, neither clapping nor drinking in the chamber is allowed, you fool.

  • RobG

    @Habbabkuk (la vita e’ bella)
    14 Jul, 2015 – 9:20 pm

    The media have gone into a hysteria about the Greek financial crisis (just like they do with all the Iran nuclear rollocks).

    Maybe you can tell us about Finland? a wonderful little country in northern Europe that’s going through the same sort of economic turmoil as Greece.

    But, frontal labotomies aside, why is there zilch coverage of the economic crisis in Finland…

    http://www.businessinsider.com/finland-is-in-a-grave-situation-2015-6?IR=T

    … but there’s wall to wall coverage of what’s going on in Greece?

    It obviously has nothing to do with the fact that the Greeks elected a left wing, anti-austerity party.

    And nothing to do with the fact that the EU is now run by a bunch of Washington-led neocon loons.

    Remember, us lot in Europe were the first ones to lop off the aristos heads…

  • Tim

    The difference between Finland and Greece is that the Finns are not asking other countries to give them lots of money. But the current situation does make the Finns even less likely to agree to pay to solve the problems of Greece as well as their own.

  • Resident Dissident

    Perhaps the somehere will begin to appreciate that there are real differences between Obama and Dubya and even that political change is possible in western democracies – but I have my doubts and expect yet another bout of cognitive dissonance.

  • Dave Hansell

    ‘Look out Major, incoming.’

    ‘What have we got Carruthers?’

    ‘Two bogies at five o’clock Major.’

    “Wonder if you will get the topic police telling you this thread is about Iran.”

    “What I don’t understand is if the SNP are so concerned about food banks why aren’t they doing something about poverty in Scotland? They had a massive underspend last year while people are hungry. Couldn’t they at least have spent the billion pounds given them by Westminster specifically for the alleviation of poverty on alleviating poverty not funding their council tax freeze vote buying project.”

    ‘Hmm. What do you make of it Carruthers?’

    ‘Well there’s certainly a hint of bitterness in the first one Major. I suspect that’s the core base personality asserting itself. That seems to be the dominant one.’

    ‘You’re getting good at this Carruthers.’

    ‘Thank you Major.’

    ‘But what’s significant about the second one Major is we might well have a manifestation of a third personality. If you recall the second personality we identified was at odds with the first one, contradicting and denying everything the core dominant personality said.’

    ‘Your point Carruthers?’

    ‘Well Major, this one appears on the surface to be more coherent. Notice how it can string more than one sentence together. Although I think the repetition of alleviation and alleviating in that last sentence suggest the presence of OCD. I bet this one washes it’s hands every five minutes.’

    ‘Well spotted Carruthers.’

    ‘Thank you Major.’

    ‘Anything else Carruthers?’

    ‘The clincher for me Major is the sheer deviousness displayed. It appears rational and reasonable but fails to note that the money from the Barnet Formula Scotland receives from Westminster is to fund a whole raft of services and public provision. Spending all that money on poverty alleviation alone would cause chaos with other legal spending requirements. The personality also neglects to inform the reader that the Scottish Government committed £185,000 to the Poverty Alliance alone in Scotland during 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 in addition to the £200,000 they committed to the Poverty Alliance Living Wage Fund. That’s on top of the Scottish Governments commitment of £1 million to the Emergency Food Fund in a situation in which Scotland will see its welfare budget slashed by £6 billion during 2015/2016.’

    ‘Well done Carruthers. That’s three personalities identified and tagged in the space of two days. We’re definitely making progress.’

    ‘Thank you Major. Have you also spotted the gestalt is not batting alone any more. Looks like the usual suspects have got back from their day out at the seaside.’

    ‘Stop trying to be clever Carruthers.’

    ‘Sorry Major.’

    To be continued……

  • Ba'al Zevul

    Ah, but, you see…in true antinationalist tradition, some hunts cross the (wholly imaginary) Border to pursue their nefarious ends. One is even called The Border Hunt. Another is the College Valley North Northumberland Hunt.

    https://borderhunt.wordpress.com/
    http://cvnnh.org.uk/

    And then there’s the Connaught Square Sqirrel Hunt, whose hounds are based in SW Scotland, but which has been recorded pursuing quarry in London…

    http://www.thefield.co.uk/features/new-packs-of-hounds-21702

    This was the first hunt to be formed after the ban, a direct result of one of its Joint Masters, Ed Seyfried, being warned by a policeman not to allow his terrier, Dylan, to chase squirrels in Hyde Park. Were this to happen, Ed would be in breach of the Hunting Act and the enormity of the offence would incur his arrest and a £5,000 fine. The absurdity of the situation led to Ed and his flatmate, Duncan Macpherson, to start London’s first draghunt on 1 April 2005. The Blairs had added a house in Connaught Square to their property portfolio and the first drag, with Dylan chasing a sock on a piece of string, was held in the gardens in front of the Blair mansion. Word spread like wildfire and the idea of Liberty through Absurdity, attracted a terrific gathering of supporters. In no time, the CSSH had over a thousand subscribers, was holding regular meets in London parks and had a saucy livery. Its hunt balls were sell-out occasions and Dylan was the fittest dog in London.

    Damn. I didn’t mean this to mention Tony Blair, but the bastard gets into any topic by himself. Just like Fred. Still, the message is clear. English legislation on hunting does affect Scottish hunts.

    But this is the real reason:

    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jul/14/sturgeon-snp-keep-foxhunting-ban-revenge-against-cameron-conservatives

    That and the delicious sensation of being called ‘opportunistic’ by Cameron, that embodiment of the chancer.

  • RobG

    Fred, get real. This was from four years ago now, but gives a good indication of debt in the major economies…

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

    The links you give are to *government debt*, and they are wildly inaccurate.

    I guess that people like you want to buy into the con that the UK is solvent.

    It’s not true. The UK is far more broke than the likes of Greece.

  • fred

    “Fred, get real. This was from four years ago now, but gives a good indication of debt in the major economies…”

    I clicked around the wheel of debt back in 2011 on your link and found that every one of the countries owed money to Britain. None of them owed money to Greece.

  • Ng

    lwtc247 is right. Saddam allowed in all the foolish inspectors.
    http://www.iraqwatch.org/government/Iraq/INA/iraq-ina-replyto1441-111302.htm
    The US attacked anyway. The breach of UNSC Res. 1441 was theirs, not Iraq’s. Gaddafy also capitulated, abasing himself to play the culprit in the Lockerbie bombing, and ultimately got reamed up the arse with a bayonet for his trouble. The only thing that can protect Iran from aggression is the Russian nuclear umbrella.

  • Ray Vison

    Bibi has bean so rude to te Americans that they are happy to make peace with Iran. In former times the Israelis may have managed to scupper it. Peace for them means they have to stop killing Palestinians and taking their land.

  • ------------·´`·.¸¸.¸¸.··.¸¸Node

    “I clicked around the wheel of debt back in 2011 on your link and found that every one of the countries owed money to Britain.”

    No. Those countries don’t owe money to Britain, they owe money to banks nominally based in Britain. If you don’t understand the difference, you don’t understand the problem.

  • craig Post author

    To be fair to Fred, he is right and national debt is generally understood to mean government debt. The UK has much higher private debt, than almost anywhere, because we all borrow from the banks to fund the Ponzi scheme housing market.

  • Silvio

    Ng wrote: Saddam allowed in all the foolish inspectors.
    The US attacked anyway.

    Dear oh dear! Good, old altruistic Uncle Sam a double dealer? Who could believe it? Nevertheless, it’s usually reckoned as wise to not count the chickens before they are hatched.

    Warning: Nuclear Deal With Iran Prelude to War, Not “Breakthrough”
    By Tony Cartalucci

    Hysteria now sweeps the headlines across the Western media regarding a “historical nuclear deal” that “Obama made” that vindicates the Nobel Peace Prize he was “prematurely awarded” so many years ago. For those aware of the ruse at play, such sentiments are to be inevitably and completely betrayed by what is sure to follow.

    The global public must remember there is currently a war raging in Syria on Iran’s doorstep. The sole purpose of this war, organized and directed by the West, fueled by billions in cash, weapons, and flooded with fighters organized and trafficked from across the globe by NATO and its allies, is to destroy Iran’s chief regional ally before inevitably destroying Iran itself. If the war in Syria is still raging, then one can be assured that the proxy war in turn being waged against Iran is still raging.

    snip

    Exposing the duplicity that accompanies Western “efforts” to strike a deal will severely undermine their attempt to then use the deal as leverage to justify military operations against Iran. For Iran and its allies, they must be prepared for war, more so when the West feigns interest in peace. Libya serves as a perfect example of the fate that awaits nations reproached by the West who let down their guard – it literally is a matter of life and death both for leaders, and for nations as a whole.

    http://landdestroyer.blogspot.ca/2015/07/warning-nuclear-deal-with-iran-prelude.html

  • Habbabkuk (la vita e' bella)

    Posts at 20h26, 20h56, 21h11 and 05h37 appear to indicate a negative attitude towards the excellent deal struck with Iran and a certain longing for that deal to fail.

    Very curious = it’s as if some people on here wish that for the worse in US-Iran relations. I wonder why htat should be?

  • Ba'al Zevul

    I see the IMF are now saying that the EU plan for Greece is unsustainable, and that debt relief of one sort or another will be unavoidable:

    http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2015/cr15165.pdf

    ……………………………………………………………………………

    Wossup – I note you don’t supply a source for your imaginative piece above. Did you write it yourself? Interesting theory – that state support causes people to have fewer children to support them in old age. Do you have any evidence for that, bearing in mind that all developed countries’ birthrates tend to drop in times of economic decline? Or as contraception becomes widely available?

    Source (this is how you do it):

    http://www.prb.org/publications/datasheets/2012/world-population-data-sheet/fact-sheet-us-population.aspx

    And what’s your feeling on the suggestion that a marketeer’s ideal globalised mobile labour market breaks up family ties as well as promoting an ethic of selfishness not conducive to caring for elderly relatives?

  • Dave Hansell

    ‘Anything interesting Carruthers?’

    ‘Well Major that third personality we tagged last night is still out there.’

    ‘Let’s see it Carruthers.’

    “Because the UK national debt is 89% of GDP whilst the Greek debt is 177% of GDP.”

    ‘Right. What do you make of Carruthers?’

    ‘It’s an interesting one Major. Looking at this one shows indications that this particular personality may be self delusional. Which makes me wonder if that might be a common denominator amongst the other personalities in there.’

    ‘Go on Carruthers.’

    ‘Well Major, in a technical sense and on the surface it appears sound. However, it fails to acknowledge a key factor of reality.’

    ‘Which is Carruthers?’

    ‘The fact that the Greek debt was originally a private debt between private banks which was transferred to the public sector, in this case as a Sovereign debt, where the banks were bailed out with taxpayers money. Like in 2008 Major.’

    ‘And your point Carruthers?’

    ‘The problem, Major, is that if this can happen once, and it’s actually happened more than once, then we are up shit creek without a paddle. The UK private debt and liabilities is way way bigger than the public debt to GDP ratio that this personality is wittering on about. Some private sector debt liabilities such as the privatised utilities pension commitments, BT, Royal Mail etc were already transferred as public sector debt liabilities on privatisation. Otherwise the City would not have taken them on. Given the track record it’s not inconceivable that great swathes of the private debt in the UK, which clearly dwarfs that of Greece given the relative sizes of the economy and the numbers which have been brought into existence, could be transferred to the UK public sector sovereign debt.’

    ‘What would that mean for us Carruthers?’

    ‘Bit of a toss up really Major. We could end up like this gestalt we are studying, all over the bloody place. The UK political capital could be Washington whilst it’s economic capital ends up in the Cayman Islands or even Berlin. But it’s worse than Major, the size of the current bubble is deeply worrying.’

    ‘In what way Carruthers?’

    ‘Well Major, it’s historically unprecedented. We are looking at the third bubble in fifteen years. It’s never happened before. Right now there is serious talk and even legislation in place in the US, for example, of bail ins. Using depositors money rather than taxpayers money to shore up the insatiablity of the private banks.’

    ‘Should we not not warn the gestalt Fred, Carruthers?’

    ‘Given the levels of evident self delusion I doubt it would take the slightest bit of notice Major. Unless we can get to the second personality, you know, the one that denies everything the dominant core personality utters, and try to work on that one in some way.’

    ‘Keep up the good work Carruthers.’

    ‘Thank you Major.’

    To be continued….

  • nevermind

    Nobody would wish for this effort to be wasted, what a stupid assumption, its merely the signs and experiences from past deals with the US/UK military puppets, as referred to above, by Silvio , for instance.

    Iran is already involved in fighting ISIS, air sorties and all, one would not want the MSM to talk about it, because nudge nudge wink wink, we have longer plans for our military economical boom and bust cycles, as LMCT247 has pointed to, Wesley Clarks whistle blowing from 2003 made that perfectly clear.

    It is to be seen whether Iran’s relationship with its neighbours will be allowed to flourish, whether its commercial relationship with China and Russia will proceed unhindered. There are two sides to the deal and I do not trust any ‘inspection regime’ thats been put together based on arm twisting fellow UN reps.We all know how the US purged the UN of its best rapporteurs and diplomats, such as Jose Bustani, the man who was about to sign up Saddam to the OPCW., something the US’s Mr. Bolton could not allow to happen.

    So if there is an inspection team it should be clean, devoid of CIA agents and Bibi stooges. Fat chance.

  • Ba'al Zevul

    Decreasing home ownership rates, decreasing nominal income growth and increasing debt-sensitivity of investment will increase the fragility (by expanding the regions in which growth declines) and hence raise the likelihood of a crisis in (redacted).

    (Redacted) has a very low household debt-GDP ratio, despite its low GDP. No-one in a position of responsibility seems to have rung the alarm bells yet on the UK’s distinctly worse position.

    http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/ekd004912/5259.htm

    Click to unredact.

  • Robert Crawford

    Iran is not a threat to Europe.

    Iran could be a threat to the economy of Europe and America if, it disrupted the flow of oil from Saudi. Which it could do quite easily.

    If the price of oil went through the roof these fragile economies would/could go down the drain.
    Leaving Iran with lots of oil to sell and make it’s self very, very rich, and money powerful.

    This “shield” is because the west is afraid of Russia.

    Notice how Monarchies do not get bombed into oblivion.

    Monarchs seem to be in complete harmony with each other.

    Funny that!.

  • Habbabkuk (la vita e' bella)

    Readers of Ba’al’s headline about possible Turkish assistance to Greece should not get too excited.

    This is because the article itself (which dates from the end of June) says:

    “We are ready to help Greece survive its economic crisis with cooperation in tourism, energy, trade,” Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said in the capital, Ankara.”

    Talks on these sectors regularly feature in ongoing Greek-Turkish dialogue and have done for years now.

    Furthermore, it reports the Turkish Economy Minister as saying that Turkey would “evaluate carefully” any formal Greek request for financial assistance.

    Needless to say, the Greek govt did not make such a request and would never do so. And “evaluate carefully” is an expression which anyone who has any experience of/expertise in govt and international relations will immediately recognise.

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

    Conclusion : post only relevant material.

  • Robert Crawford

    If my debt was 89% of my GDP (income), I would be in deep financial crisis.

  • Kempe

    ” If my debt was 89% of my GDP (income), I would be in deep financial crisis. ”

    No you wouldn’t you’d have a mortgage (or maybe even a car loan) and providing you could keep up the agreed repayments you’d be fine.

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