The Balance of Probabilities 1084


Unlike the famous chemical weapons “attack” portrayed by the BBC in Saving Syria’s Children, it does appear that in the latest incident at Idlib there was real horror inflicted by chemical attack of some kind. The question is who did it and why?

I am no fan of the Assad regime, and I have no problem using the word “regime” to describe it. Dictators do hold and win elections. I have lived in severe dictatorships and seen from the inside how they do it. The human rights abuses of the Assad regime have been well documented for decades.

But Bashar al Assad is neither stupid nor unsophisticated. Aided by Putin, he outwitted Obama by quickly giving up his chemical weapons to be destroyed and accepting transparency in verification. There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.

Assad had seen his position go from strength to strength, thanks to Putin’s astute deployment of Russia’s limited military power. Militarily the balance had swung dramatically in Assad’s favour, while Trump had said the unsayable and acknowledged that putting Syria into the hands of Wahabbist crazies was not in the United States interest.

So I cannot conceive that Assad would risk throwing all of this away for the sake of a militarily insignificant small chemical weapons attack. It would be an act of the most extreme folly. It is not impossible – hubris is a great temptation to dictators – but given how Assad has played it so far, it seems out of character and extremely improbable. What is less improbable is a local battlefield decision by pro-Assad forces. In my close observation of dictatorial regimes, a fascinating feature is that they operate an image of the perfection of the state. They are highly adverse to admitting mistakes.

What did happen I do not profess to know. There are at least eleven major identifiable state and non-state forces involved in the fighting around Idlib. In going through them all and considering opportunity and motive for each, I continually find that those whose motive would be false flag stand to benefit a great deal more than those who might have been seeking military advantage.

I am therefore for now unconvinced that this was a deliberate use of chemical weapons by Assad forces. I do not rule it out, but it would take much more concrete evidence than currently offered to prove they did something so strongly and obviously against their own interest. But western governments and media have determined to make that the narrative, so the truth is, as so often in modern geo-politics, entirely incidental to the course of future events.


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1,084 thoughts on “The Balance of Probabilities

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  • TH

    This very much shows how propaganda effectively works in the western world, and it is spread by the people in charge, the journalists in charge in the EU/US.

    It seems like the western and arab world now try to invade/keep attacking Syria in the coming weeks.
    Apparently international law doesnt matter for EU, NATO and their allies.

    Absolutely shameful that war cant be stopped and that media refuse to make its part to stop this aggression by the US.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Now Trump has proven that he cannot be trusted about making war while Xi, his friend though he cannot communicate with him in the Chinese of a four-year old., is still in Florida.

    You can now chalk up their historic meeting as a total failure. Xi won’t be pushed around like this over North Korea. Nor will Puitin as the bombs increasingly are being dropped.

    Siome difference between Trump and Hillary! They just follow the same war-mongers.

    • TH

      “Siome difference between Trump and Hillary! They just follow the same war-mongers.”

      Yes, and now apparently Trump is the best guy in the world if you judge what western msm and what they write about Trump today.
      ‘No more criticism against Trump – he started a war just like we wanted!’ seems to be the logic of the liberal warmongering media. Disgusting!

  • Ba'al Zevul

    Even Peter Hitchens thinks this one stinks:

    http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/

    How *can* trained journalists (and experienced diplomats) be so lacking in the desire or ability to question what they are told? How come that they accept without hesitation reports which have not come from their own staff, but instead come from within terrifying war zones where gangs of fanatical murderers are the only law?

    No matter what the truth of the matter at hand, that’s a damn good question.

    • Republicofscotland

      Baal.

      Good link, Hitchens balanced approached has much truth about it.

      Syria aside, I’m sure you along with many other commentors, have noticed that journalists tend to follow the crowd.

      It would appear that real in-depth journalism is on the way out.

      Add in that in my opinion, some journalists, are on security services payrolls around the globe, and investigative journalism future looks even bleaker, pity.

      • Alcyone

        LOL So funneee coming from one who sits here and copy-pastes and plagiarises the media all day long.

      • Ba'al Zevul

        It would appear that real in-depth journalism is on the way out.

        I have said so repeatedly here. Not just that, but that the culture is dead (except for a dwindling number of old-timers with ethics).

        Unfortunatly journalism has been monetised like everything else, and journalists are now predominantly trained to deliver satisfaction for the advertisers who pay their wages. Heaven forfend that they ask questions. There’s a slot on the pasteup screen that’s just the right side for a politician’s press release, put it in and don’t spoil its shape by editing it.

        A proper journalist is a sociable alcoholic who can remain conscious while his totally pissed source delivers the real story, and probably won’t remember doing so in the morning. A proper journalist hears things and follows them up instead of worrying about the deadline for his thinkpiece on kittens. Etc, etc.

        • Ba'al Zevul

          1. right size
          2. The source it is who forgets. A real journalist never forgets.

        • Phil the ex-frog

          Baal

          This proper journalist is an elusive if not fictional drinker. The possible sighting of an exception, temporarily tolerated, buried on page 11, lost under a deluge of propoganda, only serves to allow the claim to diversity of expression. The business of journalism is to disseminate the narrative of power.

          • Ba'al Zevul

            The business of journalism is to disseminate the narrative of power.

            IMO that’s to overestimate the importance of journalism. The narrative of power barely needs dissemination among a nation of undereducated couch potatoes as long as it is fully occupied with its mortgage/rent(/cardboard box) and football.

    • KingofWelshNoir

      Ba’al

      I read the Peter Hitchens article and noted the same question as you. The answer – as I’m sure you know – according to Chomsky is, journalists learn very quickly at the outset of their careers what areas are taboo, and internalise these boundaries. Those who manage that progress slowly upward on their career path, and those who don’t, find their careers withering on the vine. As they say, You write what you like because they like what you write.

      I think it is true, but it goes deeper. Since the stories of Belgian priests being used as bell clappers in World War One, and the factory turning dead soldiers into glycerine, to the Iraqi incubator story of the First Gulf War, fake atrocity stories have been a time-honoured way of manipulating the public into war. And yet, strangely, we are never taught this at school. Of course, it’s not strange at all because if we were the PTB would find it a darned sight harder to dupe young men and women into going off to fight in a cause that didn’t concern them. The consequence is such suspicions become simply taboo and most journalists would just not go near them.

      • Ba'al Zevul

        Soldiers are a lousy feedstock for glycerine in any case. Corpulent civvies are much better.

        • Ba'al Zevul

          (…the byproduct being soap. Though it would probably be antisemitic to say that starving “Untermensch” wouldn’t be a good feedstock either, and that there’s another horror story which might be questioned by an industrial chemist…)

    • mog

      I put this (Hitchens article)to Monbiot today.

      His reply ?

      ‘Believe what you want’.

  • michael norton

    Spanish raids seize Assad uncle’s assets in corruption inquiry
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39489420
    Spain has ordered properties to be seized and bank accounts frozen in a money laundering investigation linked to the family of Rifaat al-Assad.

    Judiciary officials said that the uncle of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad was handed $300m of public money when he was sent into exile in 1984.

    Now aged 79, he was placed under formal investigation in France last year.

    Some of his fortune ended up in property in Marbella and Puerto Banus on the south coast, officials said.

    While his brother Hafez al-Assad was in power, Rifaat was renowned for the brutality with which he crushed an uprising in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982. Last year he was said to be living in Paris

    Yes lets knock them down, then give the whole family a good kicking.

    • michael norton

      Russia suspends flight safety memorandum over Syria after US missile strike – Foreign Ministry
      https://www.rt.com/news/383837-russia-syria-flight-safety/

      Russia has suspended the memorandum of understanding on flight safety in Syria with the United States amid the US missile strike on Syria’s Shayrat military airfield, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement.

      “Obviously, the cruise missile attack was prepared beforehand. Any expert can tell that the decision to strike was made in Washington before the events in Idlib, which were used as a pretext for a demonstration,” the statement reads.

  • reel guid

    The BBC web pages have a heading:

    Trump Acts Decisively In Syria

    Not

    Trump Acts Precipitously In Syria
    or
    Trump Acts Illegally In Syria
    or
    Trump Acts Rashly In Syria
    or
    Trump Acts Aggressively In Syria
    or
    Trump Acts Dangerously In Syria
    or
    Trump Acts Militarily In Syria
    or even
    Trump Acts Prematurely In Syria.

    The BBC does like a “decisive” President.

    • Republicofscotland

      I doubt it will come to that, I’m sure two of the P5+1or if you prefer the E3+3, would veto any UN Resolution to go to war with Syria.

      No to remove Assad a more diplomatic approach is required, but what we may ask, could be offered to Russia and maybe China to appease them, in order to remove Assad?

      • Michael McNulty

        Although I didn’t particularly mean this one I do think in the end the US will start the mother of all wars and set the survivors back 5,000 years. But then it’s quite possible they already started said war in October 2001, because what we have in the Middle East today seems like the continuation of that war as opposed to several wars one after the other. It seems like the same campaign.

        The Yanks are good at killing but bad at war and what they started in the Middle East could continue for a hundred years for all we know. It certainly won’t be ending anytime soon. And we don’t know how it will end, but I think it likely that rather than be seen to face a crushing defeat in a conventional war – they really are that piss-poor at it – they’ll be first to use nukes so we all lose.

        • Republicofscotland

          Yes Michael, war is a very profitable game, the US Industrial Military Complex Machine, earns a pretty penny from it.

          So I’d imagine that keeping certain countries in the region in a constant state of flux (except Israel and Saudi Arabia for obvious reasons) is the long term objective in my opinion.

          Globalisation has allowed firms to follow in behind the military machine, and charge extortionate fees to reconstruct the razed infrastructure. But not before a certain amount of asset stripping has occured first.

  • nevermind

    Turkey, the country that services our F35B lame ducks, has ‘picked up the penny’, it has called for a no fly zone over Syria…..
    policed by whom?

    • michael norton

      Why can’t Syria go to the United Nations to explain there has not been a civil war, in any real sense, there has been a war since Syria refused to allow the Qatari/Saudi/Jordanian/Turkish pipeline to cross Syria.

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Sure looks like NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue in defense of Israel is getting a big boost from all this war-making in Syria with the EU falling in with Trump’s strikes.

  • Sharp Ears

    Ex-UK Ambassador: Assad wasn’t behind the chemical attack
    Syriana Analysis
    5 Apr 2017
    Former British Ambassador to Syria Peter Ford says those calling for intervention in Syria are likes “dogs returning to their own vomit”
    Peter Ford says he believes it is “highly unlikely” that Russia or the Assad regime was behind the attack in Idlib.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pS6Oa_aDS6E&sns=em

    and this decent man, not given a hearing on the UK corporate media.

    Exclusive: British journalist destroys MSM lies on Syria
    Syriana Analysis
    Published on 6 Apr 2017
    Exclusive interview with British Journalist Tom Duggan in Damascus at the French Hospital tells us about the chemical attacks accusations.
    Interview conducted by Hanin Elias
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xjOSZ6QgGgY

    • Laguerre

      Peter Ford is bloody good on Syria. He knows his stuff. There’s absolutely no reason for Asad to have carried out this attack, but extremely pressing ones for the jihadis to claim it. Trumpian change of policy is an imminent disaster for them. And even without that, they’re losing, and will likely lose Idlib this year.

      So Trump goes off like a bull in a china shop – clear evidence of how he can be provoked in the future. Everyone will note it down (including Habb). On the other hand he did warn the Russians in advance, and they presumably warned the Syrians….

    • Mike

      And this one… Former British Ambassador to Syria, Peter Ford, on BBC news this morning. When asked why he seemed to be a relatively “lone voice” raising concerns about the US administrations narrative regarding the gas attack in Idlib, Syria, he said:

      “I don’t leave my brains at the door when I examine a situation analytically, I try to be objective and based on previous experience, including Iraq, we can see that we cannot take on face value what so called intelligence experts tell is, not when they have an agenda.”

      Mr Ford also said that it is:

      “Possible that [the US] is just looking for a pretext to attack Syria”.

      See the interview segment at the video below…
      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KU5taO5vRDo

  • Sid F

    My money would be on

    1) Local jihadis cooking up
    2) Local dumb Syrian commander
    3) Erdogan

    • bevin

      “2) Local dumb Syrian commander”
      Craig makes the same point. The problem is that Syria has no sarin gas or any other chemical weapons. All were destroyed under strict supervision at Russia’s behest.
      That this was so was confirmed by a British inspector who supervised their destruction. evidently the BBC published his account and his opinion that the Russian explanation of the possible cause (which I doubt) should not be discounted. This did not fit the propaganda narrative so it was removed.
      https://off-guardian.org/2017/04/07/bbc-redacts-article-on-idlib-to-hide-unwelcome-facts/
      I have no doubt that Syria, which works very closely with Russia Iran and Hezbollah (the main target of this warmonger’s offensive) does not have rogue commanders in the field.

  • Mulkurul

    Reuters Business‏Verified account @ReutersBiz 12m12 minutes ago
    More
    JUST IN: Shares of Tomahawk cruise missile maker Raytheon up 2.1 percent in premarket trade after U.S. missile strike in Syria…….

  • Trowbridge H. Ford

    Putin is quite convincing in claiming that Trump’s attacks were planned way before the chemical attack, like during Xi’s planned visit.

    Peter Ford and Tom Duggan are quite convincing about the real culprits of the chemical attacks.

    • Ba'al Zevul

      Putin wouldn’t be running Russia if he wasn’t convincing. But in this case it’s almost unthinkable that contingency planning had not been in place, probably since Obama was wrong-footed. There’s a lot of floating US artillery in the Med. The prospect of using it may very well have preceded its deployment, no?

      • Trowbridge H. Ford

        Bur it takes time to get missiles in place, make them armed, move delivery ships into place for the attacks, make arrangements for crews to be active longer than stipulated, etc. The rush to judgment took about three days!

        This was a real operation, not just contingency planning.

        • IrishU

          It wouldn’t take long to either arm a Tomahawk system or move the delivery ships into position. The USS Ross and USS Porter are consitutent units of the US Sixth Fleet and have been based in the Eastern Mediterranean for some time.

          • Trowbridge H. Ford

            Thought the headquarters of the Sixth Fleet was in Qatar on the Gulf to keep tabs on the Iranians. a good distance from the Eastern Mediterranean, as you claim.

            Does look like attack was thrown together with well over half the missiles not hitting their targets, though no mention, of course, of any damage caused.

            Don’t ever overlook the ineptitude of the US Navy.

          • Republicofscotland

            Apparently (according to the media) the aircraft carrier the George Bush is in the region. It will have plenty more Tomahawks to fire.

  • Matsi

    “There is no justification for the destruction of Iraq, but if Saddam Hussein had been able to swallow pride as completely as Assad, he too could have had a very good chance of averting disaster.”

    I disagree. USA had made plan to wipe out Saddam Hussein anyway and they could have easily made some fantastic story sell it beautifully for stupid American public and media pundits. So Craig – don’t be so naive.

  • Republicofscotland

    Well the US warships weren’t fooling around, they they launched 59 Tomahawk Cruise missiles on the Syrian airbase, that “they” believe carried out the “dubious” chemical attack.

    In my opinion (and one or two commentors in here have already touched on it, particularly Peter Beswick) the chemical release erupted after a Western/Israeli/Saudi, backed al Nursa storage facility exploded after a bombing sortie.

    In my opinion Assad/Russian jet fighter pilots were targeting a legitimate terrorist facility. How could they possibly know that the Western backed proxy fighters, had access to chemical weapons.

    This begs the question, how did the terrorist forces, acquire such lethal chemical weapons?

    • Laguerre

      59 missiles is far too many for the purpose. Why were so many launched? Some go off course, as Russia claims (Independent)?

      • Loony

        Or maybe 59 missiles was far too few for the purpose.

        Apparently only 23 missiles hit the target. What happened to the other 36 is currently unknown. Ominously someone called Major General Igor Konashenkov has opined that “the combat efficiency of the US airstrike was very low”

        Russian reports indicate that the taxi way, parked jets and the main runway were all undamaged.

    • Ba'al Zevul

      Your opinion miraculously just happens to coincide exactly with Russian state radio’s. Still, if that’s the fount of all wisdom on this one, Syria bombing a known CW facility is still just as wrong as the US bombing a known CW facility, as it claims it has just done. With added civilians.

      Too many theories, not enough data.

      • Republicofscotland

        Baal.

        Yes you have a point, but would it not be a suicidal act for Russian/Assad forces to deliberately deploy chemical weapons, when Assad appeared to have the upperhand.

        Tell me what would Assad have to gain by further demonising himself by using chemical weapons, it doesn’t make sense.

        Of course no war makes sense, but to shine the spotlight of world back on you by using chemical weapons, just doesn’t sit right with me.

        No in my opinion Assad/Russian forces bombed what they thought was a legitimate terrorist facility.

        Which bring me back to how did those terrorist obtain, lethal chemical weapons in the first place? And were they intent on using them eventually?

      • Ball

        Ba’al,
        ———
        Syria bombing a known CW facility is still just as wrong as the US bombing a known CW facility, as it claims it has just done
        ———-

        You miss the point of the US ‘claim’. The claim that the US showed restraint not hitting the ‘Saran storage facility’ reinforces the idea that the Syrians have Saran munitions/stockpiles.

        The US narrative is that the Syrian airforce dropped Saran bombs, so the two can’t be compared (like for like) but continues the dubious narrative they are spoon feeding the intellects of the world.

        Basically fake news to reinforce fake news, no?

      • Ba'al Zevul

        Too many theories no fucking not enough data. There is no such thing as an objective picture, all sides lie like cheap plastic watches, there are no independent observers, and the media select for you only what sells their filthy product. I’m speculating, you’re speculating, but the truth won’t be available until it is old and toothless and can’t hurt the narcissistic power-junkies currently seeing who can piss highest. On all sides. Admit it.

  • bevin

    Underneath all the discussion of the ‘reasons’ why the US carried out this attack the simple reality is that it was acting as Al Qaeda’s Air Force and putting a major Syrian military facility out of action.
    The beneficiaries are the NATO sponsored terrorist militias which have been so hard pressed in recent months by the Syrians and their allies. Israel too, of course, benefits from this sort of attack because it hopes, as do the US warmongers, that the situation will get out of control and open the way for an invasion on humanitarian grounds.
    The next question is whether Russia will extend its AA system to cover Syrian , Iranian and other allied assets in the war zone. So far it has been very conservative and has not done so, if it does the Pentagon, which is run by sub standard versions of the Petraus type, will have to decide whether it wants a war or not.
    We may be looking at a situation in which the inmates, in the form of the media, phony NGO and the propaganda complex has taken over the asylum and the military are being dragged behind, just like those Canadian pilots who actually did report from Libya that they had been “Al Qaeda’s Air Force.”

    • Chris Rogers

      Bevin,

      The Yanks have not ‘put out of action’ any major Syrian airbase or installation, they have ejaculated US$100 million worth of ordinance on a third rate Syrian airbase – lets try and stick to facts and not supposition here as have been mauled over at the BTL Guardian Politics Section for having the temerity to question the papers coverage of what seems like a chemical incident similar to that that befell Bhopal. Again, please go read the three posts of SST detailing the Syrian Chemical incident, which has more credibility than that being spread in the MSM: http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/04/donald-trump-is-an-international-law-breaker.html

      • bevin

        I’m not sure where we differ. Are you suggesting that the Homs airbase has not been degraded by this attack. Or that AQ , more precisely, ISIS are not the main beneficiaries?
        As you will see, below, Moon of Alabama shares my assessment. As to The Guardian I never read it and have been banned from its discussions for seven years at least.

        • Chris Rogers

          Bevin,

          By what I can understand the Airbase in question was not of import, had it been of import, Russia would have taken down the cruise missiles with its batteries of S-300 and S-400 SAMs, which are more than capable of knocking out a sub-sonic Tomahawk missile. I’ve yet to go over to MOA, but have looked on the pages of The Saker.

          As for the main beneficiaries, regrettably you are correct that the Hand Choppers in Idlib Province have been strengthened by these unprovoked US actions.

          Regrettably, it seems our peers in the UK on the whole seem like most gullible folk, who like Habbabkuk et al, seem unable to question the garbage they are presented with as supposed ‘fact filled reportage’. Indeed, the mauling I’ve had over at The Grauniad indicates they’d love a war with Russia over Syria – all I can add is I hope their bunkers are more than 100 metres underground and that they have provisions for two years – perhaps Habs can enlighten us later from his hideout in Cheyenne Mountain – I’m told he’s on secondment from GCHQ!

  • Loony

    It must be time for everyone to offer a big thank you to pretty much all arms of western media for their detailed, accurate and unbiased reporting of all things Syrian.

    It is only thanks to the media that there is no fog of confusion surrounding any of the key events. We know that Assad is literally Hitler, we know that Putin is literally Hitler. We know that the British and Americans want peace and are prepared to kill people in order to bring peace to the world, and we know that Donald Trump is on many levels literally Hitler and we also know that Donald Trump is a great statesman who is prepared to unflinchingly confront the forces of darkness that are marshaled by the bifurcation of Hitler into the persons of Putin and Assad.

    All the hail the media – and spare a thought for a man who long ago showed the world how to deal with western media

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64U1VTpoCNc

    It is, after all, the only language they understand.

  • Sharp Ears

    Good on Jeremy
    https://mobile.twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/850292532810567681/photo/1

    cf Fracking Fallon
    “No, it hasn’t declared war. The Americans have made it very clear that the attack last night was limited, it was narrowly focused.

    “They did everything possible to minimise civilian casualties indeed to avoid Russian personnel on that particular airfield. This is the first gas attack that President Trump has been faced with in the administration and he has chosen to respond in this particular way. To take action to deter the regime from carrying out similar attacks in the future.”

    Speaking to Sky News, the Defence Secretary added: “We’ve been in close contact with the US government over the last couple of days. Once the President made his decision the defence secretary called me again to give us advance notice of the strike and the PM has been kept informed throughout.“

    Mr Fallon said the Assad regime has committed previous gas attacks “flouting international law”.

    He said: “This is the first time this has happened during the Trump administration and they decided they want to help deter it in the future.”

    Weasel words from Fallon

    • reel guid

      He’s the neocon answer to Bernard ‘Bootiful’ Matthews.

      Except Bernard was just in the business of humanely killing turkeys.

  • Doug Scorgie

    Kempe
    April 6, 2017 at 23:07
    “The Russian explanation is that the Syrian plane bombed a terrorist stockpile of sarin which is improbable for a number of reasons, not least that because of it’s short shelf life it’s usual to stockpile precursor chemicals and only mix them into sarin shortly before use.
    …………………………………………………………………………

    Kempe, you say:

    “The Russian explanation is that the Syrian plane bombed a terrorist stockpile of sarin which is improbable for a number of reasons, not least because of its short shelf life…”

    Please note below:

    Sarin without the residual acid removed degrades after a period of several weeks to several months.

    The shelf life can be shortened by impurities in precursor materials.

    Along with nerve agents such as tabun and VX, sarin can have a maximum shelf-life of five years.

    Sarin’s otherwise-short shelf life can be extended by increasing the purity of the precursor and intermediates and incorporating stabilizers such as tributylamine.

    In some formulations, tributylamine is replaced by diisopropylcarbodiimide (DIC), allowing sarin to be stored in aluminium casings.

    In binary chemical weapons, the two precursors are stored separately in the same shell and mixed to form the agent immediately before or when the shell is in flight.
    This approach has the dual benefit of solving the stability issue and increasing the safety of sarin munitions.

    So, it is quite likely or even probable that shells of ready-mixed sarin were present in the bombed building.

    What are the other reasons that make the Russian explanation improbable?

    • lysias

      Sarin is absorbed through the skin. If the agent involved was sarin, it would have killed the first responders. Which did not happen.

    • Kempe

      MAXIMUM shelf life.

      I can do cut and paste as well.

      Speaking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme, Hamish de Bretton Gordon, director of Doctors Under Fire and former commanding officer of the UK Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) Regiment, said this claim was “completely untrue”.

      “No I think this [claim] is pretty fanciful, no doubt the Russians trying to protect their allies,” he said. “Axiomatically, if you blow up sarin, you destroy it.”

      “It’s very clear it’s a sarin attack,” he added. “The view that it’s an al-Qaida or rebel stockpile of sarin that’s been blown up in an explosion, I think is completely unsustainable and completely untrue.”

      • Chris Rogers

        Kempe,

        There is but one rather large hole in Hamish’s analysis, and indeed yours, which is detailed in the attached link from the CDC, the CDC info clearly states, given the extreme toxicity of even very small doses of Sarin, that first responders must equip themselves with full NBC clothing and exercise extreme caution.

        Is it not but a little amusing that the valiant responders to this ‘supposed’ Sarin Chemical attack don’t appear to be wearing any clothing that can be considered of an adequate nature to protect you from SARIN. Indeed, we see no one in full body suits, or military-grade NBC suits, instead we see a few gas masks that are not self contained breathing units and surgical gloves/gowns.

        Still, who am I to question the qualifications of Hamish and who are you to question the guidance and advice issued to first responders by the CDC in Atlanta?
        https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/ershdb/emergencyresponsecard_29750001.html

        • Kempe

          So we’ve gone from false flag to lucky (very lucky) hit on a terrorist stockpile to it wasn’t sarin at all.

          Maybe some of the first responders did die but as the CDC document you so kindly posted up explains sarin is combustible so would almost certainly have burnt away had it been hit by a bomb but that there is an antidote and given previous uses of the gas it’s fair to assume that this would have been available to responders.

          • Chris Rogers

            Kempe,

            I have now reviewed two You Tube video’s of an appallingly poor nature allegedly claiming a chemical attack – if, after reviewing either video you believe this crud God help us, for I have seen better nickel and dime amateur movies made for US$1, than this rubbish.

            Links to these video’s made elsewhere by me on this thread.

            Link to a dissection of both Video’s, the website please be warned I’m linking too may be construed as ‘anti-semitic’, so I’m not endorsing it, but the take down of these video’s is clear: http://logophere.com/Topics2017/17-04/17_015-BLA-ShajulIslam.htm

          • Dave Lawton

            Kemp have you ever tried Sarin? Well the UK State tried to test it on me.I smelt a rat and declined.I was one of the
            lucky ones.Motto never believe what the MSM and the State tells you.

        • Republicofscotland

          Chris Rogers.

          Very good comment, you’ve definitely gotten the measure of Kempe. ?

    • michael norton

      https://www.rt.com/news/383902-truck-reportedly-drives-into-people/

      At least two people have been killed and many injured after a truck drove into pedestrians on a Stockholm street, police confirmed. Authorities say they are treating the incident as a possible terrorist attack.

      “I saw hundreds of people run, they ran for their lives,” a witness by the name of Anna told the newspaper, adding that she also fled the scene.

      • michael norton

        Martin Svenningsen, a reporter with P4 Extra, says he saw a truck driving into the crowd.

        He said: “I saw at least three dead, but there are probably more. It’s a complete mess here.”

        Several people are lying lifeless in the street according to witnesses, shooting also happening.

  • bevin

    Bernhard at Moon of Alabama, as always, has a sensible view of this matter
    ” On this day one hundred years ago the U.S. joined World War I. Last night the U.S. attacked a Syrian government airport in an openly hostile and intentional manner. The strike established a mechanism by which al-Qaeda can “request” U.S. airstrikes on Syrian government targets. It severely damaged the main support base for Syria’s fight against the Islamic State in eastern Syria. The event will possibly lead to a much larger war.

    “On April 4 Syrian airplanes hit an al-Qaeda headquarter in Khan Sheikoun, Idleb governate. Idleb governate is under al-Qaeda control. After the air strike some chemical agent was released. The symptoms shown in videos from local aid stations point to a nerve-agent. The release probably killed between 50 and 90 people. It is unknown how the release happened.

    “It is unlikely that the Syrian government did this:

    “In 2013 the Syrian government had given up all its chemical weapons. UN inspectors verified this.
    The target was militarily and strategically insignificant.
    “There was no immediate pressure on the Syrian military.
    “The international political atmosphere had recently turned positive for Syria.
    Even if Syria had stashed away some last-resort weapon this would have been the totally wrong moment and totally wrong target for using it. Over the last six year of war the Syrian government army had followed a political and militarily logical path. It acted consistently. It did not act irrational. It is highly unlikely that it would have now take such an illogical step.

    “The chemical used, either Sarin or Soman, was not in a clean form. Multiple witnesses reported of a “rotten smell” and greenish color. While the color would point to a mixture with Chlorine the intense smell of Chlorine is easily identifiable, covers up most other odors and would have been recognized by witnesses. Both Sarin and Soman are in pure form colorless, tasteless and odorless. The Syrian government once produced nerve agents on a professional, large scale base. Amateurishly produced nerve-gases are not pure and can smell (example: Tokyo subway incident 1995). It is unlikely that the Syrian government experts would produce a “rotten smelling”, dirty, low quality stuff in an unprofessional and dangerous process.

    “The nerve agents in Khan Sheikoun, should they be confirmed, came either from stashed ammunition at the place attacked by the Syrian government or it was willfully released by the local ruling terrorist groups -al-Qaeda and Ahrar al-Sham- after the strike to implicate the Syrian government. The relatively low casualty numbers of mostly civilians point to the second variant.

    “Several reports over the years confirm that Al-Qaeda in Syria has the precursors and capabilities to produce and use Sarin as well as other chemical agents. This would not be their first use of such weapons. Al-Qaeda was under imminent pressure. It was losing the war. It is therefor highly likely that this was an intentional release by al-Qaeda to create public pressure on the Syrian government…..”

  • Doug Scorgie

    Kempe
    April 7, 2017 at 14:56

    “MAXIMUM shelf life.”
    …………………………………………………………………

    Kempe, I did mention other, shorter shelf-lives of a few weeks to months.

    You can’t seem to accept the possibility of sarin shells being present and ready to use.

    I listened to Hamish McHaggis Gordon and he was talking about a specific scenario where two precursor chemicals being stored separately in the building.

    He didn’t mention that it is quite likely that there could be ready to fire sarin munitions.

    Please try to do some serious research before spouting off.

  • Ba'al Zevul

    I’m drawn to Scott Adams’ thoughts, here:

    http://blog.dilbert.com/post/159264981001/the-syrian-gas-attack-persuasion#_=_

    Adams does the Dilbert cartoon, but that is not his only talent. On his blog, he has a habit of getting Trump right when conventional thinking gets him wrong. I think he likes Trump a bit, too. Adams thinks the gas attack was fake, for reasons we are all familiar with. And he suggests, before the event, that the response will be fake too. All we’ve really got to go on, lacking affidavited accounts, pictures and various analyses, chemical and strategic, is psychology. Did Assad do it? Probably not, given that he is rational (may be unsafe, but let that pass) So who did do it? The rebels? Possibly, but the Russians and Syrians don’t deny it was a Syrian strike, just that it was a Syrian gas strike. Why would they accept even part of the blame if the blame wasn’t heading their way anyway?

    Which leaves Trump. Who is in considerable trouble over his alleged sympathies with Putin. This does not play well in the US, and it’s not going away. Also he needs to convey to possible opponents (also including North Korea) that, despite his campaign rhetoric, US hegemony will not be suspended.
    Cue something nasty being delivered by other means during a Syrian airstrike…cue maximum emotional impact of story at home, cue righteous president launching 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase…but not before detailed consultation with the Russians, who couldn’t frankly give a toss about Assad per se but have all along been hoping to hang onto Tartus as a naval base. Syrian base cleared of anything mobile before mighty revenge of Superman descends. Trump no longer Russian agent. Trump hero. Bigly.

    Fake attack. Fake response. Bears thinking about, anyway.

  • reel guid

    Labour’s single MP in Scotland Ian Murray has said ” The capability of launching such a chemical attack on the Syrian people, as we’ve seen this week, can only have come from the Syrian regime”.

    He doesn’t explain why Assad is uniquely capable of using such weapons in the theatre of conflict. Doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about. Just mindlessly goes with the media flow and expects us to as well.

    • TH

      Its scary to see all these bots repeating pure war propaganda they have no evidence for at all, this really shows how well propaganda works in our society. I really really hope cooler heads win over the fanatical warmongers otherwhise we have a new Iraq in front of us.

        • Republicofscotland

          reel guid.

          Trump as resolute, that’s true he’s as wooden as the Resolute desk he sits behind. ?

      • Ball

        Cool heads – Jeremy Corbyn calling for deescalation by everyone, peace talks and the UN to investigate.

        He’s already getting slaughtered by the war wing of the Labour Party – the Blairbots. Press to follow. Sanity is not welcomed by the war industry in the UK.

        Disgusting.

        • TH

          Yeah isnt it amazing, not a single politician (pretty much) nor journalists in the mainstream media condemn this aggression for what it is, heck I even read EU stand behind Trump and apparently will also join in this war if asked!

  • Ben

    How do the Trump enablers here like him now?

    But, but his election stopped war with Russia. Heh. Scuttlebutt says outrage from Moscow is fake. They seem willing to dump Assad in exchange for remoting ukraine sanctions.

    • Chris Rogers

      Ben,

      Most rational persons indicated if they preferred Trump over Clinton that it was because it would reduce the probability of WWWIII with Russia by a few months given Trump had no defence team in place during his Presidential run, whilst Hilary, being brought and paid for, already had a team in place ready to conduct aggression in Syria from day one of her administration.

      Now, if you were a cancer patient who knows they are going to die, but nonetheless with treatment could extend their life by 90 days, without incurring too much invasive surgery or pain – what would you do?

      Actually, who gives a toss, we are able to bloody type and comment today because fucking Clinton was not elected, had she been elected we’d be fucking dead under a mushroom cloud already, as you bloody well know!!!!!

        • Chris Rogers

          John,

          Well I’d like to think so, alas I usually only spend time here, at Naked Capitalism, Sic Semper Tyrannis, The Guardian and The Independent – oh, and I inhabit two pro-Corbyn Labour Groups on Facebook, one of which supports those of us Banned/Suspended from the Party.

          With regards notions of WWWIII, well I did have to study C. Wright Mill’s book on that subject matter, but that was nearly 30 years ago I’m afraid, however, given Ms Hilary Clinton wanted ‘No Fly Zone’s’ over Syria, such an imposition with Russian S-300 and S-400 SAMs in place would have resulted an a ‘hot war’, which probably would have spiralled out of control – regrettably, Trump’s actions mean we really are getting closer to conflict, which is quite scary and trust me I was really scared in the early 80’s and fearful of war, the BBC Docudrama Threads had a big impact I can assure you.

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