Below is a list only of constituencies where I think the result will be close, and the Tories will be one of the parties in contention to win it. I recommend how you should vote to keep the Tory out.
It is my judgement that Brexit will guarantee against a Tory/Lib Dem coalition. Johnson’s Tory Party is not Cameron’s Tory Party. Besides, the Lib Dems lost 90% of their MPs from their last coalition with the Tories, and are unlikely to be keen to repeat the experiment. Your vote is yours and you must vote with your conscience. But to block a far right government with media control and serious anti-democratic tendencies, this is my recommendation of which are the really key constituencies where your vote might change the future. I do implore you to consider abandoning your first choice and following my recommendation in these seats.
I expect this election to be very close. A few thousand tactical votes in key seats can really make a serious difference.
This is a much larger list than would normally be sensible. Generally not that many seats are in doubt in our grossly inadequate electoral system. But the Tory campaign to go after broadly northern working class Brexit votes at the expense of broadly southern liberal voters, has put many more seats in doubt. This is my personal selection of where you might make a real difference – it is my list and I have compiled it with great care and without consulting any other such advice out there. My list is informed not just by polls (and my own interpretation of those polls), but on data from the ground and so includes more Tory seats than other lists, as I believe the Tories will lose quite a few. Tomorrow night will be very exciting because so many individual results are uncertain.
Aberconwy – Vote Labour
Aberdeen South – Vote SNP
Ashfield – Vote Labour
Aylesbury – Vote Labour
Ayr Carrick and Cumnock – Vote SNP
Banff and Buchan – Vote SNP
Basingstoke – Vote Labour
Bassetlaw – Vote Labour
Beaconsfield – Vote Independent
Bedford – Vote Labour
Bishop Auckland – Vote Labour
Blackpool South – Vote Labour
Bolsover – Vote Labour
Bradford South – Vote Labour
Brecon and Radnorshire – Vote Lib Dem
Bridgend – Vote Labour
Broxtowe – Vote Labour
Buckingham – Vote Lib Dem
Bury North – Vote Labour
Bury South – Vote Labour
Camarthen East – Vote Plaid Cymru
Camarthen West – Vote Labour
Canterbury – Vote Labour
Carshalton and Wallington – Vote Lib Dem
Central Ayrshire – Vote SNP
Ceredigion – Vote Plaid Cymru
Cheadle – Vote Lib Dem
Chelsea and Fulham – Vote Lib Dem
Cheltenham – Vote Lib Dem
Chesham and Amersham – Vote Lib Dem
Chingford and Woodford – Vote Labour
Chipping Barnet – Vote Labour
Cities of London and Westminster – Vote Labour
Clwyd South – Vote Labour
Clwyd West – Vote Labour
Colne Valley – Vote Labour
Corby – Vote Labour
Coventry North West – Vote Labour
Crewe and Nantwich – Vote Labour
Croydon South – Vote Labour
Dagenham and Rainham – Vote Labour
Delyn – Vote Labour
Dewsbury – Vote Labour
Don Valley – Vote Labour
Dudley North – Vote Labour
Dumfries and Galloway – Vote SNP
East Renfrewshire – Vote SNP
Eastbourne – Vote Lib Dem
East Devon – Vote Independent
Eastleigh – Vote Lib Dem
Esher and Walton – Vote Lib Dem
Filton and Bradley Stoke – Vote Labour
Finchley and Golders Green – Vote Labour
Gedling – Vote Labour
Gloucester – Vote Labour
Gordon – Vote SNP
Great Grimsby – Vote Labour
Guildford – Vote Lib Dem
Hastings and Rye – Vote Labour
Harrow East – Vote Labour
Hazel Grove – Vote Lib Dem
Hendon – Vote Labour
Hitchin and Harpenden – Vote Lib Dem
Hyndburn – Vote Labour
Ipswich – Vote Labour
Keighley – Vote Labour
Kensington – Vote Labour
Lanark and Hamilton East – Vote SNP
Leigh – Vote Labour
Lewes – Vote Lib Dem
Lincoln – Vote Labour
Loughborough – Vote Labour
Maidenhead – Vote Lib Dem
Mid Dorset and North Poole – Vote Lib Dem
Milton Keynes North – Vote Labour
Milton Keynes South – Vote Labour
Monmouth – Vote Labour
Moray – Vote SNP
Morecambe and Lunesdale – Vote Labour
Newbury – Vote Lib Dem
Northampton North – Vote Labour
North Norfolk – Vote Lib Dem
North West Durham – Vote Labour
Norwich North – Vote Labour
Ochil and South Perthshire – Vote SNP
Oxford West and Abingdon- Vote Lib Dem
Penistone and Stockbridge – Vote Labour
Peterborough – Vote Labour
Perth and North Perthshire – Vote SNP
Preseli Pembrokeshire – Vote Labour
Pudsey – Vote Labour
Putney – Vote Labour
Reading West – Vote Labour
Redcar – Vote Labour
Richmond Park – Vote Lib Dem
Romsey and Southampton – Vote Lib Dem
Rother Valley – Vote Labour
Runnymede and Weybridge – Vote Labour
Scunthorpe – Vote Labour
Sedgefield – Vote Labour
Shipley – Vote Labour
Southampton Itchen – Vote Labour
South Cambridgeshire – Vote Lib Dem
South East Cambridgeshire – Vote Lib Dem
South Swindon – Vote Labour
South West Hertfordshire – Vote Independent
South West Surrey – Vote Lib Dem
St Albans – Vote Lib Dem
St Ives – Vote Lib Dem
Stevenage – Vote Labour
Stirling – Vote SNP
Stockton South – Vote Labour
Stoke on Trent North – Vote Labour
Stroud – Vote Labour
Surrey Heath – Vote Lib Dem
Sutton and Cheam – Vote Lib Dem
Taunton Deane – Vote Lib Dem
Thornbury and Yate – Vote Lib Dem
Truro and Falmouth – Vote Labour
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Vote Labour
Vale of Clwyd – Vote Labour
Vale of Glamorgan – Vote Labour
Warrington South – Vote Labour
Watford – Vote Labour
Wells – Vote Lib Dem
West Aberdeenshire – Vote SNP
West Bromwich East – Vote Labour
West Bromwich West – Vote Labour
Westmorland and Lonsdale – Vote Lib Dem
Wimbledon – Vote Lib Dem
Winchester – Vote Lib Dem
Witney – Vote Lib Dem
Wokingham – Vote Lib Dem
Wolverhampton North East – Vote Labour
Wolverhampton South West – Vote Labour
Worcester – Vote Labour
Workington – Vote Labour
Worsley and Eccles South – Vote Labour
Wrexham – Vote Labour
Wycombe – Vote Labour
Ynys Mon – Vote Plaid Cymru
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I would love to know why you recommended e vote for Blackman the Zionist in Harrow East?
Could it be a mistake or a typo?
It’s essential to vote Labour in Harrow East.
Sadly zionists dominate political life in the UK. Would be pretty hard to vote for anyone with the remotest chance of winning almost everywhere if you excluded Friends of Israel. This election is one of those where we have to save ourselves. Then we will be able to think of saving others.
I still don’t understand, Craig. Bob Blackman who is defending a slim majority of 1750 ( or thereabouts), in Harrow East, is one of the more vile promoter of islamophobia in the Tory party and has found common cause with the equally vile Hindu nationalists among the large Indian working class community in his constituency. Why would you not want to support the excellent Labour candidate who has a real chance of unseating him?
Because Craig is more interested in stopping Brexit than stopping Israel. Coincidentally his advice matches that of the establishment…
it does? the establishment is recommending a strategy to block tories, too? do you have a link?
See the various headlines about tactical voting as if it were something invented yesterday.
so, no link. what establishment? what are they recommending and how does craig post show he is more interested in stopping brexit? and why shouldn’t he be, for that matter? you’re just repeating some vague talking points.
If you check through Craig’s list, the Harrow East advice is to vote Labour. Blackman is the sitting Tory, the advice is to vote Labour, so there is no contradiction. The base line of the advice is not to stop Brexit but to prevent Boris from gaining a majority in parliament to railroad whatever plans he may be cooking in his oven. Even if, otherwise, the vote may be repellent to you. I would be willing to bet that the millions of trees will not be planted and a whole load of spending plans will bite the dust, the point is to defeat Boris, that’s all.
Whilst the base line of the advice may not be to stop Brexit, that will be a side effect of Johnson not getting in. How to vote depends on a number of things and what ones personal priorities are.
Pete: for several hours Craig’s list unintentionally showed a recommendation to vote Conservative in Harrow East. After the error was pointed out it was corrected.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip is an especially important one, because it is Boris Johnson’s constituency. He said he couldn’t make the date for the hustings there, and so it was changed for his benefit, and then he didn’t turn up! That’s what he thinks of his own constituents. His Labour opponent is Ali Milani, a young man who seems a very good candidate indeed. The first YouGov MRP poll gave a Tory lead of 13%, and the second one a lead of 9%. That’s a swing to Labour of 2%. Most of the data for the second poll was collected before Boris Johnson showed what he thinks of small ill children who have to sleep on floors in state hospitals, so the swing to Labour is probably already larger than 2%. And remember this poll was biased towards older voters and the Tories, which is another reason for believing there may be less than 4.5% of ground to cover. There are also many students in the constituency, some of whom are registered both there and at home, in which case they are allowed to choose which one of the constituencies they wish to vote in in this election. Now that Boris Johnson is prime minister, I suspect the turnout among the young in Uxbridge will increase compared with 2017. In short, Labour are in with a chance of defeating Boris Johnson in his own constituency. So if you are reading this and you live there, don’t just vote Labour but think hard whether there is anyone who might stay at home or vote for some other party but who might vote Labour with your encouragement, and then give them some encouragement! Think how great you’re going to feel when Ali wins the seat in the early hours of Friday morning! Do your bit to help Ali follow in the footsteps of Emmanuel Shinwell who smashed the Tory-in-all-but-name prime minister Ramsay MacDonald in Seaham in the general election of 1935.
‘small ill children who have to sleep on floors in state hospitals’
I don’t care who you vote for in Uxbridge but please let us have no more nonsense about the poor little toddler who had to be treated on the floor. It is complete b*ll*ocks as all intelligent followers of this anti-fake news blogg should know. Criticise Johnson by all means but not at thiis pathetic level.
What is pathetic was the reaction of Johnson, his TV political editors and army of social media trolls.
Why are you peddling the fake news put out by Tory trolls? The hospital itself admitted the incident had occurred by apologising. The level of deceit employed by the Tories is staggering. What kind of people will rule our country if they win?
No. It’s not bollocks. You have been deceived by an organised disinformation campaign which pumped this lie out. The hospital has confirmed it happen.
Major Alex from the 77th is practising the dark art of disinformation
Theo, regarding nonsense; you’re not helping!
The story was fact checked by the newspaper that led it, what is incorrect it the wave of fake denials on social media that followed it.
Hear, hear! The web of media manipulation and output of various disinfo campaigns over the last five years are very scary indeed. (Notice how comments like yours disagreeing with Craig’s line are very quickly followed by one line dissenters?)
Yes I noticed that. (Probably because he’s spreading poisonous bullshit on behalf of a bought-off party. One that is already arranging the end of free healthcare in this country.)
For crying out loud, what’s wrong with you pal?
The mother contacted the Yorkshire Evening Post to inform them about the situation along with a photograph of her son lying on the ground. The paper sent a journalist to Leeds General Infirmary to confirm the story. Note: not Leeds Hospital which doesn’t exist. The hospital later apologised for the situation.
Somebody called Sheree Jenner-Hepburn put out a story on Facebook that said “Very interesting. A good friend of mine is a senior nursing sister at Leeds Hospital – the boy shown on the floor by the media was in fact put there by his mother who then took photos on her mobile phone and uploaded it to media outlets before he climbed back onto his trolley.”
Jenner-Hepburn has since claimed to the ‘lefty’ Guardian that her account was hacked and she doesn’t know anybody in Leeds. Apparently she’s also received ‘death threats’. Now this would be all well and good if it wasn’t for the fact that her son also happens to be a Facebook Friend of…………..Matt Hancock!
The full story is here:
https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/bots-tory-trolls-and-right-wingers-spread-sick-conspiracy-that-mum-staged-boy-on-hospital-floor/10/12/
If you believe the above link to be from a conspiracy news website – and borderline Fascists like yourself always do – there are plenty of other news websites that can verify the truthfullness of the mother’s allegations. However you can still always report the Yorkshire Evening Post to IPSOS for publishing fake news. But you won’t will you? Your type never do.
All the verbiage on this site has me laughing out loud, literally.
The Boris lot will sell the NHS out directly; the Jeremy lot won’t have a choice – the Sterling bond market will be tanked, the country will be in dire financial straits – and Mr. Corbyn will be forced to ‘compromise’ (sell out) with US health insurance corporations to hand over NHS control.
Any way you fools vote, the result will be exactly the same.
The democratic system was only ever put there to protect the Establishment. When heads roll, this time it won’t be a Czar, or a King, just the useful idiot politicians you fools vote for that’ll get the chop, and while you’re occupied doing that, the Establishment will quietly make off to a safer part of the world, until the US military have you all back under control again.
Anyway, good luck with your ‘election’.
Cry you sarcky tears then cry even more when we send Langley thugs and agents scooting back to base.
Dungroanin
December 12, 2019 at 11:52
So no sensible reply – just a kneejerk reaction?
If any manifesto’s were serious, they would have, right at the top of the page, Nationalise the Banking system, and 2, Nationalise the munitions industry.
Is that so?
Why?
Dungroanin
December 12, 2019 at 16:43
Don’t ‘sealion’, do your own bloody research.
@MagicRobot – Do you realise you are assuming that life depends on international finance? Also can you explain who you think will make whose heads roll, because it is not clear from your comment.
One thing you are missing is that a huge economic crash is inevitable, and at that time I would rather live in a country where people have voted for social provision rather than where they have voted for a bunch of right-wing scum who worship the exterminationist god Thomas Malthus and who stood for election blowing dogwhistles to the tune of “Enoch was right” and “send them back”.
I am most surprised at a self-professed Marxist having anything to do with this House of Nonsense ‘democracy’ party.
I believe (although it’s been many years since I read it) Karl Marx himself wrote in ‘Das Kapital’ that ‘democracy is nothing more than a wordy battle over who will manage capitalism best’. (excuse my paraphrasing; I do not have the book to hand).
@N_
“One thing you are missing is that a huge economic crash is inevitable”
Didn’t miss it at all, I wrote:
“the Sterling bond market will be tanked”
This was lately done with the Venezuelan currency, when a ‘non empire approved’ left wing leader was elected.
That’s how they (speculators) do it: they quietly whisper ‘sell Sterling’ and sit back to watch the fireworks, while MSM media says ‘see! Socialism! never works! Corbyn bad!’ etc. ad nauseam.
Bond-backed pensions hit a crisis; currency falls in value thus prices rise, etc.
We’ll see when Mr. Corbyn gets into No.10 tomorrow, eh?
I think you’ll find that Venezuela is a largely dollarized economy, like much of South America, and therefore vulnerable to direct economic attack from the US.
Britain is of course a satellite of the US but still maintains monetary sovereignty – it alone controls the issue of pounds sterling.
What you call “the sterling bond market” is a form of corporate welfare for Tory spivs in the City and their speculator pals in the US and elsewhere. Britain would be better off without them.
As a monetary sovereign, the UK doesn’t have to borrow to finance its budget spending. But, if it wants to continue exchanging interest-bearing government IOUs (“bonds”) for non-interest-bearing government IOUs (cash), it could always do so in direct deals with legitimate investors such as pension funds, cutting out the corrupt middlemen.
Of course, that won’t happen if the Tories are returned to power. Unfortunately, the Labour leadership is flying blind economically (with bad economic advisors) and, if it forms the next government, is likely to take seriously ridiculous statements such as “the Sterling bond market will be tanked, the country will be in dire financial straits”.
np:
Well, nothing like a bit of good old obfuscation from you to muddy the waters.
“Venezuela is a largely dollarized economy” you say.
They use the Bolivar in Venezuela (we use Sterling) internally, but have to use Dollars externally (as does Great Britain) to buy oil.
“ridiculous statements such as “the Sterling bond market will be tanked, the country will be in dire financial straits””.
And you also say “direct deals with legitimate investors such as pension funds, cutting out the corrupt middlemen.” Which brings us round full circle to my other comment:
The very first item in any party’s manifesto, if they want my vote, is Nationalise the Banks – Now.
As I said earlier – We’ll see when Mr. Corbyn gets into No.10 tomorrow, eh?
He didn’t even even bother to go vote there in person.
The cowardy coward.
Too busy spaffing all over no 10 while his mate Laura watches and makes soft focus films of him tossing … his hair with his hand.
All over bar the shooting the messengers – they do it to themselves now.
“I know it’s fashionable, but even in 2019 there is nothing big or clever about shooting the messenger – tweets or retweets here aren’t necessarily my view”
Back to Langley and Georgestown cushy Journalism teaching to the future ‘reporters’ for her no doubt.
If the bbc let her out or on air until the poliice investigation and trial is over the Controller, Chair and board ought to be fired under the new administration immediately.
Still no tweet from Katya Adler herself just some retweets saying she is part of the coverage team tonight 72 hours since she disappeared.
I want to see all these racists of the country throwing up into their mouths and swallowing it back down countless times as the Labour government is formed and Abbot gets to hand out some instant fair justice at the HO. Plenty of secret reports. Plenty of stalled inquiries. Plenty of law bending and …JA free and in hospital by the time Corbyn returns from the palace. I expect he will be walking back down the Mall through the hundreds of thousands lining the route – may take some time.
Not wanting to nix owt at this stage – but fuck it – the crappy Guardians, 4 election outcomes doesn’t include one with a Labour majority if even 1 seat !
Gaslighting msm bastards to the last.
The queues have been massive and weathet permitting will be so this evening with people complaining they can’t get to vote by 10.
Like it happened in 2010.
@Dungroanin – I haven’t been following it today. So Johnson didn’t even go to vote in a polling station in his constituency? I have never in my life heard of the leader of a major party in Britain take such a “f*** off!” attitude to the electorate.
If he really didn’t vote in person, I hope Ali Milani’s team are shouting that fact from the rooftops by all possible methods to the electorate in Uxbridge.
I was forgetting – Johnson doesn’t live in Uxbridge. I’m told he voted in the Cities of London and Westminster.
It would be briiliant if Boris lost.
He could deliver milk for a living.
He could deliver milk while blowing a dogwhistle and making the “OK” handsignal maybe?
“How the alt-right uses milk to promote white supremacy“
Hillarious as anybody worth their ‘alt-right’ salt knows that the “OK” handsignal is associated with the Illuminati. A bit like saying Christians are into upside down crosses!
P.S. No, I don’t believe in the Illuminati.
Wrong information about Maidenhead.
Lib dems came third in the last two elections. Labour increased its share of the votes sizeably one the last elections.
It isn’t the last election. Lots of moderate Tories switching to the Lib Dems. Any idiot can produce a chart of who came second at the last election.
It is not just that but this was the second election where labour increased the vote. Lib Dem’s were once strong in the council but lost support due to local policies but also with coalition government.
Yes, and that is why the truly awful Dominic Raab is in serious trouble in Esher and Walton.
The Liberal Democrats may be able to topple him.
Just to reiterate:
Kensington – Vote Labour
Voting LibDem as some of the LiDem-owned tactical voting sites wlll let the Tories in there.
Remember Grenfell Tower: If you seek their monument, look around.
The observer seems to be favouring a hung parliament rather than a Corbyn win as it recommends Lib Dem in seats with a three party pull always to LDs. It even recommends some seats where LDs is third in the last elections by a margin.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/dec/11/bbc-denies-political-editors-postal-vote-comments-broke-law
“The Guardian has learned that Waltham Forest council in east London has been scrambling to deliver postal votes that should have been out by last Friday, after an administrative error delayed the process.
The problem affected 1,470 voters in three constituencies, including Chingford and Woodford Green, which Iain Duncan Smith won for the Conservatives with a majority of 2,438 at the last election and which is a key target for Labour.
The council could not say how many voters were affected in each constituency but said all but one form had now been delivered.
It said 1,364 forms had been hand-delivered by the end of Monday and 105 more had been couriered to voters outside London on Tuesday and Wednesday.
A council spokesman said the borough had dealt with 27,993 postal votes for this election. He apologised for the error and said the Electoral Commission had been notified.
He added: “Completed postal votes will get to us if they are posted by last post on Wednesday 11 December. They can also be handed to staff at any polling station in the constituency on the day of the general election.”
Sounds like they should postpone completion of the count in all 3 constituencies in Waltham Forest and allow postal votes posted on Thursday to be counted. Even that won’t help all postal voters outside the UK, some of whom may be disenfranchised.
Would be interesting to know whether the 1,364 out of 27,993 were concentrated in Labour-voting wards.
Would be interesting to know whether similar patterns were repeated across other Marginal Constituencies.
You have the answer:
If you like money more than people vote conservative.
If you care about people and not just money vote Labour.
SA I think it was a joke. Although actually I think it’s a logical fallacy that quite a few people do subconsciously make. All rich people vote conservative, I vote conservative, therefore I am rich.
Hiding in a Fridge: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=buqtdpuZxvk
More BBC Bias and a Fridge actaully:
https://twitter.com/Plus_haut/status/1204840355000176646
Nobody of good conscience could recommend voting for either Umunna or Berger. There is a chasm of difference in that regard between Craig Murray and the Observer.
Scotland = Vote SNP
England = Vote Labour.
And that’s it. Don’t overthink things.
You don’t have to think. I have done it for you..
Thankyou Craig for your hard work . Your blog is a refuge.
Seconding On the Train’s comment (10.35). Thanks, Craig for all your work on this blog – even when I occasionally disagree. It’s a beacon of honesty and common sense.
Aren’t I the lucky one then, eh? I have somebody to do my thinking for me.
From most of your posts it’s pretty obvious that would be a good thing.
What’s up with Harrow East? Is that a mistake?
Sorry that’s no sleep for 36 hours. Vote Labour.
Thanks for everything you’ve done, and not just in the last (epic) 36 hours. We’re lucky to have you.
Harrow East????
What about Calder Valley?
Vote Labour but I haven’t got it down as very close. Hope I am wrong!
Using the fav press phrase ffs
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/dec/12/from-a-thumping-tory-win-to-a-corbyn-coalition-four-election-scenarios
The Groaniad continues IT’S gaslighting of the voters – just like the beeb, LBC msm and social and alt-media are.
What about the 5th scenario?
A Labour majority?
Bring on the Leveson 2 storm and sink all their boats!
Yes but unfortunately Craig, nobody of any importance read this blog.
Fortunately, Fred, 100,000 people read this blog this election and you don’t have to be “important” to vote.
Though I suspect even by your own definition of “important” you would be surprised who reads this blog.
Do you know our names and addresses Craig ?
do you have a reason for this irrelevant comment?
PANIC.
Pretzelattack and Craig sitting in a tree…
ben01 and geoffrey, sitting in some call center dump. uk tax dollars at work for the integrity initiative.
The important people so far as Craig’s article is concerned are voters in marginal constituencies. It was not written for the attention of the Marquess of Tavistock or whoever else you consider important.
Just voters, we’re not important are we. Heaven forbid any of those 100K are influencers as you like to call them. Not your influencers though are they. And with less than 6 degrees of separation on our isles, we’ve got everyone covered.
Or simply spoil your ballot paper like Pat Condell did if no good party is available in your territory, which includes Labour.
Many spoiled ballots should be clear sign that the UK election set up is sick.
A rock and a hard place come to mind with this election. Anyone with any sense will realise that there is no ‘choice’ in this one.
You lot seem to want fools like Corbyn , Abbot,and McDonnell managing things?
and you think this country has problems now?
Personally I’m not going to vote.
At least that way I can feel less responsible for the inevitable mess that this country is heading into.
I’m curious as to why you don’t also label the arch clown a fool.
yes everybody, don’t vote, don’t vote. If you must, then spoil your ballot! It’s hopeless I tells ya!
Jees you really think people are this stupid? Years, no, generations of manipulation, maybe we are more malleable to your desires, but we’re waking up, and we’re angry. Get out and vote. Give lifts. Wrap up warm, enjoy the fresh air, and we will blow this Tory Scum away. Tomorrow is a new dawn. Tomorrow we start doing things right.
Talk of queuing already 10x longer than last time. You are not alone, and unless bots have grown legs, we’re smashing this but we need everyone to vote.
“Tomorrow is a new dawn. Tomorrow we start doing things right.”
ha ha!
Just smell that national socialism, for tomorrow may belong to them..
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face – forever.
George Orwell
Your ‘choice’ your ‘vote’
and when you say national socialism you mean the right wing nazis, not actual socialists. what happened to them again?
Yes socialism is your new dirty word to be twisted for fear mongering. It just isn’t working though is it? We’re already living Orwell, and it sure ain’t Corbyn that brought us there is it. All I smell is your fear and desperation which is why you come across as quite unpleasant.
Meanwhile I have been working my arse off all morning, now chilled and having a mug of tea before I go out and vote with my family. Then back to work into the night until my bones ache and muscles cramp. I already have the boot on my face. Time to tear the boots from our faces and break the legs of the corrupt system that put them there. Why don’t you join the winning team? Better together. Fight the good fight. Either way I wish you well.
Two points Fredi.
1. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea
2. George Orwell (Eric Blair) was a member of the Independent Labour Party, which after 1931 had no connection with the Labour Party, and only left them because of their pacifist stance during WW2.
Just stating you are sensible is meaningless if you provide no evidence for it. You don’t suggest any ‘sensible’ names or policies you think would solve the country’s problems. Or even mention what you think the problems are. What are people to make of you Fredi?
Don’t Vote?
Never Dare complain about the government.
Thanks for this. North East Fife..vote SNP …for the great Stephen Gethins who has worked his socks off !
I came to Craig’s site because he offered an edifying alternative to the MSM concerning Russia and other geopolitical issues. Now he’s getting into Guardian style hectoring, from telling people how they should vote, right down to appalling snobbery and snide remarks about Leave voters. You don’t get much more establishment than this.
Hopefully when the election is over, he will return to what he’s good at?
It amazes me how the cult that Brexit has become poisons the mind of people who consider themselves radical, to the extent they are quite happy for Boris Johnson to get elected.
It’s become a religious belief.
An emotional not logical decision.
Heart – not head.
To vote a congenital liar in so that he and his other lying mates can ” Get Brexit Done” is akin to telling a Tiger – ” Don’t touch that meat.”
They believe in a liar.
It’s a game for Johnson but life or death for the poorer people who follow the latest Prophet.
By the way I believe that Johnson won’t Get Brexit Done come what may.
That’s my belief.
Perhaps more a question of principle and long-term gain over short-term expediency. A bit like Scottish independence or giving up heroin.
If Johnson was only a liar it would not be so bad. He is a lot lot worse than that.
I’m pretty sure he’s emphasised voting with your conscience above all else a number of times. Can’t you read?
I also don’t think Mr Murray is guilty of tarring all leave voters with the same brush. I voted leave myself, and I’m not offended by him in any way. Why are you?
” I voted leave myself, and I’m not offended by him in any way.”
Then you must be happy that Mr Murray regards you as a dim racist,. He has made it perfectly clear that ‘independence’ is only acceptable for Scots and Catalonians, any one else is desiring it is a racist bigot.
“Then you must be happy that Mr Murray regards you as a dim racist,”
In fact Craig is very careful not to use that sort of ad hom. Unfortunately people comment on this blog who can’t understand the difference between “people who are racist voted for Leave” and “people who voted for Leave are racist”.
Utter drivel. The wealthiest voted remain. Like my bigoted step uncle who i’ll be spending Christmas with again, no doubt to be bombarded with his rants about “Mohammedans and Jamaicans.”
Remainers tend to be people who don’t want to rock the boat, because they’ve done rather well out of it.
More calculating racists of course will have voted to remain.
‘The wealthiest voted remain’
Really? You mean like the 5 individuals who between them donated over £1.1m to the Conservative party in the last couple of weeks? They’ll be ‘remainers’ will they?
Steph
It is a verifiable fact that the only single social group In the country who voted overwhelmingly for remain were the richest.
Not that i have anything against the wealthy. I’m not a snob like many here (and over at The Guardian, where many here would feel at home).
Bingo!
It’s also not the same as saying “all racist people voted to leave”.
Glasshopper
You don’t need anybody to tell you how to vote, just to point out truths. In your case you seem to think that Johnson is Liberal, but the word is Libertine, a description that fits him perfectly.
Call him what you like. He is on the Ken Clarke wing of the Tory party on social issues. As Ken Clarke has pointed out multiple times in LBC interviews recently.
He’s also a careerist who is likely a remainer at heart too. His BRINO deal was warmly applauded by Merkel, Macron etc, so i wouldn’t get too excited about us leaving the EU anytime soon.
This is is great. Now to share the ass off it.
Can everybody throw a link to this out on Twitter or whatever?
Well done, Craig. You’ve done your bit on this election.
SHARE SHARE SHARE
People have been sharing identical lists for weeks.
Craig is at least 5 weeks behind his chums at The Fraudian.
link to the identical list, then.
Tweet from TM on 28th November unveiling a statue of Nancy Astor who was, it seems from the comment a Nazi sympathiser and an anti-Semite. Interesting comments. Yet this sort of thing doesn’t get out to main media.
https://twitter.com/theresa_may/status/1200139015170736129
Nancy Astor’s phenomenal achievement at actually being the first woman MP is overshadowed by her racist attitude, which was of course standard Daily Mail opinion. She was not the only person with blinkered class attitudes, and that heinous attitude is to be forever condemned, however she also gave credit to the Pankhurst women, and all the other suffragettes who gave their lives and liberty, for her to be able to stand, and sit, in Parliament. It was a massive achievement and she had a pretty tough time, albeit that she was a pretty tough talker herself. Respect.
First woman MP to take up her seat.
Ah yes…..my Uncle remembers her….he was one of the ‘D-Day Dodgers’….Barf!
As every seat in the whole UK may count, we should also be aware of what is happening in Northern Ireland, where there are several marginal seats. And let’s not forget that the DUP, who held 10 Westminster seats in the 2017-19 Westminster parliament, are Brexiteers, even after Johnson threw them under the bus.
People in Northern Ireland have more electoral sophistication than the mainland British. Tactical alliances, where party A does not stand in a particular constituency and asks its supporters to vote for party B in order to keep out party C, are nothing new over there. This is usually balanced by a reciprocal arrangement in another constituency.
On the Remain side, 3 parties have formed a tactical alliance in the Belfast region.
In North Belfast the SDLP (broadly equivalent to Britain’s Labour Party) and the Green Party are not standing, so that their supporters can vote for Sinn Fein’s candidate John Finucane (currently Lord Mayor of Belfast, so a well-known figure) against Nigel Dodds (also a well-known figure as the DUP’s Westminster leader). Finucane will not take his Westminster seat if he wins, but his victory would mean one less Brexiteer in Westminster.
In South Belfast Sinn Fein and the Green Party have stood down and asked their supporters to vote for the SDLP candidate, who thus stands a good chance of ousting the current DUP MP.
In the commuter-rich partly suburban North Down constituency non-Unionist candidates have no chance of winning the seat, which was held in the last parliament by independent Unionist Sylvia Hermon, now retired. Her hopeful successor from the broadly pro-Remain Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) is under threat from the DUP. SDLP, Sinn Fein and Greens have all made way for their North Down supporters to vote for the UUP and keep the DUP out.
It’s worth noting that N Ireland’s Alliance Party, pro-Remain and broadly equivalent to Britain’s LibDems, have refused to be involved in any of these tactical alliances, even though they have little or no chance of winning a seat themselves.
In a close result or ‘hung parliament’ (silly term, I’d rather call it ‘No Overall Control’ (NOC), as in British local elections) these 3 seats could make an important difference.
In the 2017-19 Westminster parliament there were ten DUP MPs plus independent Unionist Sylvia Hermon. Seven Sinn Fein MPs were also elected to Westminster, but it is party policy not to take their seats or vote in parliament as it would require swearing allegiance to the British crown. That policy is unlikely to change.
Acronym glossary:
DUP: Democratic Unionist Party.
SDLP: Social Democratic and Labour Party.
UUP: Ulster Unionist Party
.
would Sinn Fein ever take their seats if their support ensured a Corbyn Labour government?
Sinn Fein do not accept the legitimacy of the Westminster parliament, they have a fairly well established position, I wouldn’t expect them to change it based on the identity of the PM.
It is a self defeating stance. You either agree to engage in a political democratic process or you don’t. If you don’t then you can’t have influence. It is a question of Strategy vs short term tactics.
SA,
Exactly, if you choose not to take part in democracy, then you really do not deserve to have a say in it. De-platforming is not part of any democratic process.
Was the British Empire democratic when it went about the world invading, killing and looting resources from other countries. Land stolen by the use of force is hardly democratic.
In the UK the only real democracy is English weighted democracy.
so why run in said Westminster elections, surely that gives it legitimacy?
My response was about the liklihood of Sinn Fein changing its position. Since they have maintained this policy for more than one hundred years I doubt that its candidates, if elected on a platform of not sitting at Westminster, will then swear allegiance to the crown. If the policy were to change, I would expect this to be in their manifesto rather than an ad hoc change.
I don’t expect SF to change their position either, but someone needs to talk some sense into them. If they can help stop Brexit, they will win a lot of kudos in Northern Ireland where 56% voted for Remain.
The Johnson “Deal” involves stationing EU customs officials in NI ports. Arlene Foster’s chums in the UVF aren’t going to allow that.
C’mon SF, forget the f***ing Second Dail just as you’ve forgotten keeping shtum about child-abusing priests. Let’s have some realpolitik please. If it’s necessary to kick the Tory scum out of office, take your seats that people have elected to. Literally wear clothespegs on your noses if you must.
Sinn Féin never had and never will have any intentions of legitimising British governance in Northern Ireland by taking there seats in Westminster with or without an oath of allegiance. They have no intention of getting involved in “Brexit”, for the satisfaction of a section of the UK electorate. That is for the peoples of Britain to resolve (by the way good luck with that) not Sinn Féin. The clues in the name Sinn Féin = our self’s alone. It’s not going to happen; in fact they would probably see it as interfering in another countries election.
I found out spleens could burst if you laughed too heartily when I reached this part: “People in Northern Ireland have more electoral sophistication than the mainland British”
Patronising eh Hatuey. I think they do
SA, tell me I’m wrong.. are you saying a population that lets bigotry and sectarianism (above all else) determine who it votes for has sophistication?
Maybe you could look at this and judge
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2019-50716979
Also there is no question as you recognise that the problem is the legacy of colonialism. Unlike in Scotland devolution has actually institutionalised sectarianism through the power sharing agreement. And this will take perhaps a generation or more to resolve. The only other country I can think of which is based on a sectarian constitution is Lebanon, and look at what is happening there.
Who created this bigotry and sectarianism. Westminster of course.
Why do the British Parties who keep saying they stand for election across the country not stand for election in N.Ireland then? Why no British Labour Party in N.Ireland then to bring sophistication to the unsophisticated?
Ignorance is bliss for so many.
@SA – I think you mean politicians in NI, right?
To sum up: as it see it, Remainers in Belfast region marginals should vote as follows:
North Belfast: John FINUCANE (Sinn Fein);
North Down: Alan CHAMBERS (UUP);
South Belfast: Claire HANNA (SDLP).
Thank you for that comment Coldish. Your explanation has given me a wee insight into Northern Ireland politics as regards this election.
It’s still entirely safe to vote SNP in East Dumbartonshire. The Tories are in third place but barely scrape into double figures (YouGov MRP).
It would be galling to see Swinson retain her seat by blatant disregard of election spending limits when the LibDems are at 7% on the latest Survation, weighted Scottish poll.
Also, if Swinson adopts that arms outstretched, messiah pose one more fucking time she’ll qualify for a claim for RSI in the workplace.
I bet you’re not a fan of Swinson’s winsome eyelash-fluttering “Yep” when asked whether she’d be willing to give the go-ahead for a mega-Hiroshima either, @Viv 🙂
I despair, as I just don’t think the British are capable enough to see through all the Daily Mail and Sun crap that they absorb into their little minds.
I really hate to say it, but I am afraid that Boris’ dad and the Tories are right about one thing: that the British public is just plain dumb, after years of education sabotage.
It will be a true miracle if I am proven wrong, and I might start to have some hope again, but for decades now the more intelligent non-human creatures of this world have been staging their protests about the stupidity of humanity.
This is just the latest die-in (although, sadly, the poor birds are truly done and dead, and no mock scenario here):
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/dec/11/mystery-hundreds-starlings-dead-road-anglesey
Why would anyone in a seat which clearly voted to leave the EU – Bury, Redcar, Bolsover, Ipswich, Bridgend etc. want to vote Labour or worse still LibDems, thus ensuring that their democratic vote in the EU referendum was ignored?
They realised they were lied to and changed their mind?
Both sides lied, quite obvious lies, and what you have said could apply to any election. I am a traditional Labour voter, and I think Corbyn has been continually smeared, but I cannot see how his and McDonell’s economic promises add up.
I’m very sad for you that you have swallowed the mainstream media lies. Leading economists back Corbyn and McDonnell’s spending plans which will bring Britain up to mid range Europe and Scandinavia standard. The 4 main newspaper owners not only don’t pay tax, but are also non dom ex pats, or living in a castle in the English Channel. The Tories have taken bribes from billionaires to deliver much of Britain’s wealth and resources to them after this election. The country desperately needs a Corbyn led government to bring human decency back into normal social currency, to hold the cruel Tories to account for the harm they have done. The Conservative manifesto is promising reduced national insurance contributions – buy your own insurance – work until you are 75, or buy your own pension, and hope the pension fund doesn’t go bust when you are ready to draw it down.
And the law is ‘politics by other means’ so they will not abide by the rulings of the High Court. There has never been a more important election than this one.
And its position on Brexit is ridiculous.
“but I cannot see how his and McDonell’s economic promises add up.”
I doubt if they’ll get put into action very much, unless Labour get a real majority. Johnson’s promises, either stated in the deliberately vague manifesto, or implied in the consequences of the hard Brexit planned, are much more revolutionary (and thus likely to cause suffering).
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/11/boris-johnson-destroy-britain-conservative-revolutionary-sect
Andyoldlabour, if you cant vote for labours economic policies, then please comrade, vote labour for Julian Assange…_
A lot of what Corbyn has promised has already been in place for many years in Scotland. The Sky did not fall in. It’s not Marxism as the billionaire owned brainwashing press would have it its just basic decency.
PS the Scottish gov did this with a budget that is only less than halve its actual revenue. The remainder goes to Westminster who then waste it on a lot of stuff that Scotland does not want and then makes the ludicrous claim that Scotland has an annual deficit. Only an independent country can have a deficit or surplus. The UK has run up a total debt of £1.8 trillion and growing. Scotland has no debt because it has no annual deficit.
They grew some braincells and stopped blaming black people, Pakistani Brits, and Romanians, and decided maybe ruling class Old Etonian Tory scum were deserved targets of their opprobrium instead?
free healthcare if they get sick.
Andyoldlabour: I understand what you write (11.57), but many people in those constituencies, including many Labour and LibDem voters, voted ‘Remain’ in the 2016 referendum and would have good reason to vote in this election for whichever anti-Brexit party has the best chance of winning the seat. In fact it would be inconsistent or irrational for them to vote any other way. And even those who voted ‘Leave’ in 2016 may well have changed their minds, or have other reasons for trying to prevent a Johnson government.
Angryoldlabour
Because people who are not thick as pigshit realise that Brexit is not the only issue in the world.
Brexit being the only issue is exactly what Johnson and Co want to trick us with.
We should not fall for it.
Well Craig, thanks for that comment, although it doesn’t really become you, and it has come back to bite you, because everything I said about the leave areas has been proven true.
The Labour party in particular needs to wake up and realise where their voters are, what they expect from a party which no longer even pretends to stand for the working class.
Blair destroyed the Labour party, then scuttled off to earn £millions.
Corbyn is in my estimation an honest man, but has suffered from the endless smears and the infighting within the Labour party.
Brexit may not be the only issue in the World, but it was the single issue which defined this election.
Because Labour will still give the option of the electorate choosing Brexit or not. Or is that too much democracy for you?
Anyoldlabour – whoops I’ve missed a letter out – reminds me of career lefty Owen Jones. He talks the socialist talk but every so often the mask slips. Like here. Andy thinks that voting Labour is a betrayal of Brexit and therefore people should vote for the Tories.
Labour are offering people a choice in a referendum. It’s not necessarily an ideal situation because it depends on what Labour – should they get into power – consider to be a good deal for the UK. I would prefer any referendum to include the opportunity to vote for leaving the EU without any deal to give people a third choice.
For what it’s worth I live in Ipswich. The Labour Party candidate Sandy Martin is not particularly left wing but he aint no Blairite either and therefore has got my postal vote especially because he’s local – he lives 10 minutes walk from me in a decidedly non-posh area – and completely understands local issues.. The Tory candidate on the other hand is a blow-in from Ely in Cambridgeshire who knows nothing about the area and just blows smoke out of his arse. He has been fed ideas from local activists including mooting the idea of building a northern by-pass which Martin has been campaigning for but most Tories and especially at county level are vociferously against.
This General Election isn’t just about Brexit.
Well done, Craig. It is so important that those of us of us who care about the future and reputation of our nations work to defeat the Tories today. I live in a safe Tory seat (sadly) but even in those constituencies it is important to get the vote tally up for the opposition parties.
Very seldom over the decades has Scottish votes helped to determine the outcome of a GE, today will probably be no different.
I hope the SNP do very well today, however as Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald said, Westminster is not the forum in which Irish interests have been served.
That applies to Scots as well, hopefully a good showing for the SNP will be a springboard to independence, sooner than later.
Also I agree with the leader of Plaid Cymru Adam Price, that lying politicians should face criminal charges.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/18095434.adam-price-politicians-caught-lying-pay-legal-price/
Republic of Scotland (12.18): Scottish voters determined the outcome of the 2017 election, in that Scottish Tories took enough seats off the SNP at that election to enable Mrs May to struggle on in office (if not in power) for another couple of years. Without those extra seats her confidence and supply agreement with the DUP would not have provided a majority in parliament and she could have been defeated in a vote of confidence, resulting in either a Labour-led coalition or another general election.
“Republic of Scotland (12.18): Scottish voters determined the outcome of the 2017 election”
Hence the words very seldom.
1945 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————
Labour majority: 146
Labour majority without any Scottish MPs in Parliament: 143
NO CHANGE WITHOUT SCOTTISH MPS
1950 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————
Labour majority: 5
Without Scottish MPs: 2
NO CHANGE
1951 Conservative govt (Churchill/Eden)
——————————————————–
Conservative majority: 17
Without Scottish MPs: 16
NO CHANGE
1955 Conservative govt (Eden/Macmillan)
——————————————————–
Conservative majority: 60
Without Scottish MPs: 61
NO CHANGE
1959 Conservative govt (Macmillan/Douglas-Home)
————————————————————————
Conservative majority: 100
Without Scottish MPs: 109
NO CHANGE
1964 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————
Labour majority: 4
Without Scottish MPs: -11
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1
(Con 280, Lab 274, Lib 5)
1966 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————
Labour majority: 98
Without Scottish MPs: 77
NO CHANGE
1970 Conservative govt (Heath)
——————————————–
Conservative majority: 30
Without Scottish MPs: 55
NO CHANGE
1974 Minority Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————————
Labour majority: -33
Without Scottish MPs: -42
POSSIBLE CHANGE – LABOUR MINORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MINORITY
(Without Scots: Con 276, Lab 261, Lib 11, Others 16)
1974b Labour govt (Wilson/Callaghan)
—————————————————–
Labour majority: 3
Without Scottish MPs: -8
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO LABOUR MINORITY
(Lab 278 Con 261 Lib 10 others 15)
1979 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————
Conservative majority: 43
Without Scottish MPs: 70
NO CHANGE
1983 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————
Conservative majority: 144
Without Scottish MPs: 174
NO CHANGE
1987 Conservative govt (Thatcher/Major)
——————————————————
Conservative majority: 102
Without Scottish MPs: 154
NO CHANGE
1992 Conservative govt (Major)
———————————————
Conservative majority: 21
Without Scottish MPs: 71
NO CHANGE
1997 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–
Labour majority: 179
Without Scottish MPs: 139
NO CHANGE
2001 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–
Labour majority: 167
Without Scottish MPs: 129
NO CHANGE
2005 Labour govt (Blair/Brown)
——————————————–
Labour majority: 66
Without Scottish MPs: 43
NO CHANGE
2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)
——————————————
Conservative majority: -38
Without Scottish MPs: 19
CHANGE: CON-LIB COALITION TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY
Courtesy of Wings.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/
In 2017, Scottish Labour and the LibDems put up enough no show candidates in specifically selected seats to allow the Tories to increase their MPs in Scotland by 12. The SNP were not enablers of a minority May government, look to Jo Swinson and who ever was running the show for Scottish Labour at the time (Dugdale? They come and go with dizzying regularity).
That is correct.
You only have to see the LD vote crashes in some places.
The 29% of voters in Scotland who voted Tory in 2017 shouldn’t be exempted from blame.
If my auntie had balls she would be my uncle.
And if all those Tory voters in England hadn’t voted Tory there would have been a Labour government in 2017.
Evolvepolitics reports Laura Kuenssberg to the police after postal votes incident.
https://evolvepolitics.com/bbcs-laura-kuenssberg-accused-of-breaking-electoral-law-after-revealing-confidential-postal-vote-information/
BBC have issued a statement:
Regarding today’s Politics Live programme, the BBC does not believe it, or its political editor, has breached electoral law.
Move along now.
When Attorney General Sharmi Chakrabarti supported by Home Secretary Diane Abbott send the police to raid the BBC and Kuenssberg’s house on Friday to seize phones, phone records, files, etc., then people who aren’t the BBC will be able to form an opinion about whether to prosecute its political editor or not.
I’ve never been in favour of this solemn holy right of “journalists” not to reveal their sources. If someone meets up to chat with a murderer on the run about how much he enjoyed murdering his victims, why should they be exempt from accessory after the fact charges just because some rich c*** pays them to scribble some words about what they heard so that the rich c*** can pay some printworkers to print those words, wrap some advertisements around them, and laugh all the way to the bank?
imho the government strategy is to aim for a coalition with the LibDems. i.e. the aim is a hung parliament, not a full majority. They will take advantage of the LibDem’s ‘stop brexit, let’s have another referendum’ stance. This will give the Tories the perfect opportunity to stop brexit, remain in power and blame the fall-out on the LibDems. “There is no alternative, we’re doing what’s best for the country, etc”
If the plan backfires, Labour will get a shot instead – potentially in coalition with the LibDems. But I recall that recently Jo Swinson stated there will be never be coalition with Corbyn.