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Spain and France upticking a fair bit, Germany still quite low, 30 times less than U.K.
If only we could figure out what the U.K. does so badly compared to how brilliantly the Germans tamp down covid, it is a mystery.
When Mrs. M. went to look at the bad floods this week, her and her chums were not wearing masks.
That must be because the Germans are so brilliant and they barely have any covid, so they do not take precautions.I think Germany’s trace-and-test closure percentage would tell us most. If it’s nearly 100% then Germany really is doing well at last. If it’s 90% or lower (at a guess) then Germany is on its way to another wave, and the current big UK-Germany ‘difference’ is just that our waves and theirs are occurring at different times. Germany hasn’t been a big success story; they’ve had three massive waves so far with around 92,000 deaths overall.
Looking at floods seems pretty low-risk – indoors is five to twenty times riskier than outdoors.
WHO – CHINA
“China has rejected terms proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) to further investigate the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic.
WHO head Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called on China to be more co-operative about the early stages of the outbreak, including with audits of laboratories.
Zeng Yixin, deputy health minister, said it showed “disrespect for common sense and arrogance towards science”.
He said the plan was politicised and that China could not accept it.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-57926368
The China Authorities seem quite reluctant for the origin of covid to become known. It will remain a mystery that has caused millions of deaths but hardly any in China.
BBC
“Yuan Zhiming, director of the National Biosafety Laboratory at the Wuhan Institute of Virology,
also appeared at the press conference. He said the virus was of natural origin and maintained no virus leak or staff infections had occurred at the facility since it opened in 2018.More than four million people have died worldwide since the start of the pandemic and the WHO has faced growing international pressure to further investigate the origins of the virus.”
I would suggest it is quite likely that CHINA REGIME has pressured Yuan to claim nobody who has ever worked at his Level Four Laboratory has ever become ill by contacting a viral infection.
That statement is preposterous.You did notice the plan to make everyone have a vaccine passport to leave their house? The plans for constant booster shots? The denial of basic freedoms?
It looks likely to me that it was a US government funded project, outsourced by Peter Daszak of Ecohealth Alliance (New York), to Wuhan Institute of Virology. Some of the work was being done under merely Biosafety Level Two. The Chinese government is certainly obstructing investigation, but so is Daszak, who has a copy of the vital genetic database but refuses to publish it:
Scientific arguments:
https://thebulletin.org/2021/05/the-origin-of-covid-did-people-or-nature-open-pandoras-box-at-wuhan/
Political wrangling and evidence of possible cover-up:
This has been discussed on the Origins of SARS cov2 thread started by SA.
The US and Chinese governments sling mud at each other because both were responsible.
The WHO has been very diplomatic towards the Chinese government. I expect that’s because the WHO would rather not lose the limited cooperation it has been getting.
FRANCE
The India – Delta variant of the coronavirus that causes Covid-19 is now the main variant circulating in France, Prime Minister Jean Castex said on Wednesday, adding that 96 percent of the 18,000 new cases reported the day before were among the unvaccinated.
“We’re in the fourth wave,” Castex told TF1 television.
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210721-96-of-new-covid-19-cases-among-non-vaccinated-people-says-french-pmI have just got in from walking with a friend in intense heat.
We were discussing this.The French Prime minister has said, that now, 96% of persons newly contracting covid are unvaccinated.
My friend claimed that 50% of people newly catching Delta in U.K. are unvaccinated.If he is correct, that means 50% have been vaccinated but still have caught it?
So what percentage of those still catching Delta in the U.K. are fully vaccinated?
Penguin: “You did notice the plan to make everyone have a vaccine passport to leave their house?”
No – I must have missed that one. Can you send a reference to the plan – it’s been discussed in Parliament, I take it?
SA, the registered covid positive cases in JAPAN, are starting to skyrocket.
Patrick Vallance had to correct himself on Twitter because he had said at a press conferance that 60% of hospitalisations were previously vaccinated when he said he meant to say 60% were unvaccinated (implying 40% were in the previously vaccinated group). I see an article in the Guardian detailing falling antibody levels post vaccine which may require booster shots.
It is hard to call what’s going to happen. Positive test rates are more than 3 times higher that they were when last there were similar rates of hospitalisations and ventilated patients. Thta’s positive but then again there is the lag time between rise in cases and rise in healthcare metrics. (hospitalisations and ventilated)Germany registers 20 – 40 times less cases per day as does the U.K.
Germany has done = 65,845,568 covid tests
U.K. has done = 160,800,000 covid testsyou might conclude that if you do not test you will not find?
Sorry, that was nonsense the figure I gave for the U.K. was actually for Russia
U.K. has done = 236,677,745 covid tests
while Germany has done = 65,845,568 covid testsU.K. = 3,467,228 / million people
Germany = 783,260/ million peopleSo U.K. test more than four times as many/million as does Germany.
May be they just don not want to know?
Penguin: “You did notice the plan to make everyone have a vaccine passport to leave their house?”
glenn_uk: “No – I must have missed that one. Can you send a reference to the plan – it’s been discussed in Parliament, I take it?”
Of course he can’t – it’s a conspiracy, so it has to be a secret. The conspirators aren’t allowed to tell anybody about it – not journalists and especially not Parliament!
We wouldn’t even know about it unless Penguin availed us of his (secretly acquired) insider knowledge. How does he know about these things? Maybe he’s in on it himself and is whistleblowing on the website of a recognised whistleblower?
Alternatively, maybe he’s just “blowing” – in a metaphorical sense. (However, it’s a secret – so he’s not allowed to tell us…)
“May be they just don not want to know?”
Or maybe they are just not at the same point in a wave as UK is (yet). Maybe they don’t have as many people requesting testing. The previous waves in different countries didn’t all happen at the same time. As far as I can tell, from informaton on https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus, Germany and UK count tests performed. A more useful figure would be persons tested (and sepearate episodes). If someone has a lateral flow test that shows positive then subsequently has a confirmatory PCR test, that is one test to me not two. Also, some testing for those self isolating requires more than one test at different time periods. If they are on the same person in the same episode then really should count as one test.
@Mods
I have posted the link to ourworldindata because it allows you to compare different countries by selection for various data which is very useful when looking at timelines. I have specifically tried to show Michael that although the UK is showing high rates of cases and Germany low it doesn’t mean that at some point that position will be reversed.Apparently in some parts of the World, they are starting to talk about “The British Experiment”
I guess what they mean,
you have two thirds of your adult population double jabbed but almost no teenagers and children jabbed
School is out for Summer and Freedom Day has come.
“Let The Games Begin”
as they say in Japan.Michael norton – “you might conclude that if you do not test you will not find?” and “May be they just don not want to know?”
The difference more likely reflects how well targeted the tests are.
– – – – – – – –Some people have been claiming that high case numbers are purely the result high rates of testing, and thus do not tell us the prevalence of infection. But if this were true, the curve of positive test results would be a similar shape to the curve of number of tests performed. Those two curves can be compared:
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing
The two curves bear no resemblance to each other, so something else must be responsible for the shape of the positive tests curve.
Until the vaccination programme, the hospital admission curve, and the two different deaths curves, all followed the shape of the positive tests curve, lagging by about one week and two weeks respectively. So the positive tests data was predicting hospital admissions a week later, and deaths two weeks later. That is very strong evidence that the tests are reflecting the prevalence of infection.
Remember that no one gets sent to hospital just because their test comes back positive; they’re merely asked to self-isolate. People attend hospital or get sent there based on their symptoms. One of the deaths curves is based on positive tests, but the other is based on death certificate data, ie. clinicians’ assessment of cause of death.
– – – – – – – –However, the more idea the testers have of which people to test, the more likely each test will be positive – ie. they don’t use so many tests on randomly checking people who turn out to be negative.
A perfect trace-and-test system should find all positives without checking anyone who hadn’t been exposed to infection. The entire population of New Zealand could be checked without finding one positive case, because there is no infection within New Zealand.
Penguin, yes I have noticed the things you’re alluding to. I have also noticed that you’ve both grossly exaggerated them, and entirely omitted the context.
Have you noticed the, er, pandemic thingy? ‘Cos it’s pretty bloody obvious.
Hello Clark, what I was trying to suggest that all though Germany only posts positive cases at 1/20 – 1/40 that of the U.K. they probably have more cases, possibly many of low symptoms, that are not tested.
We in the U.K. are testing close to four and a half times as many /million of our population but as Clark rightly points out, very few are now die from covid.
What I think this is pointing to, is that there is a huge amount of people in the World who have some covid in them but these people are mostly not ill.A local, one week lockdown in Nanjing, China:
Michael
“….you might conclude that if you do not test you will not find?”
It is not that simple. You cannot make sweeping conclusions from crude statistics because there are so many variables.
I urge you to look at these figures and take the following points:There is no absolute correlation between the number of tests done per million of population and the number of cases and deaths when you compare different countries. For example UK with 3,451,223 tests per million, has also a high death rate per million of 1,888 and no of cases per million of 81,486. Hong Kong tests per million 2,702,318, deaths per million is 28 and cases 1583. There are many more examples. And then look at Chile and Australia with similar number of tests and vastly different deaths and cases.
Looking at Germany, yes they have tested much less than other countries but also have a much lower number of cases and slightly lower deaths than say Austria and UK.
China, low testing low cases and low deaths.
So really the answer may be, it depends when and why you test and also what do you do when you test. My interpretation, which may be well of the mark is:
Places like china have extremely well directed testing and an efficient tracing and quarantine system and that ultimately leads to stamping down quickly on outbreaks and a much lesser need for continuous mass testing.
On the other extreme countries like UK have so politicized the process that they use statistics like mass testing as a political indicator to tout about and boast but do very little with the data, they do not act on it properly: no proper effective tracing and no appropriate quarantine, just voluntary self isolation, and therefore are forever chasing their tail with every new wave of infection.
Germany may be in the middle, wise testing, appropriate measures, compliant population that heads advise, and so on.
So in summary it is not the number of tests you do that matters, it is what you do with it!
Michael, that is why I’d like the trace-and-test “trails closed” percentage; it would be a fair measure of how much community transmission goes undetected. I strongly suspect that Germany is doing better than the UK.
But China, and most of Australia are both doing much, much better than either UK or Germany.
Freedom Day
by Mr. Salmond and his interviewees
https://www.rt.com/shows/alex-salmond-show/529815-freedom-day-bojo-administration-plan/It seems many countries, including Italy are now going to vaccinate children as they are coming to understand, this will not stop until children have been vaccinated.
So, as most countries, in Europe, do not conduct as many covid tests as does the U.K.
and as infection numbers start to rise in The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Spain, Greece and France, do you think these countries will start to up their testing regimes?The less cases there are, the easier it is to mop up everyone they’ve been in contact with. Consider my Nanjing example, which I will link again here:
1 initial case,
10 close contacts tested,
150 casual contacts, or contacts-of-contacts tested,
30,433 speculative contacts tested.1 positive result, 30,000+ tests, outbreak stamped out.
Now try applying similar proportions in the UK:
Say 40,000 initial cases on one given day,
400,000 close contacts, approaching half of national testing capacity,
Six million contacts of contacts – exceeds national testing capacity several times over,
Speculative contacts include the entire population.40,000 initial cases, a million or two tests, covid everywhere; everyone is a potential carrier, no control over the virus whatsoever despite doing 30 to 60 times as many tests.
It pays to keep infection numbers low.
