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July 23, 2021 at 10:40 #74426SA
“….you might conclude that if you do not test you will not find?”
It is not that simple. You cannot make sweeping conclusions from crude statistics because there are so many variables.
I urge you to look at these figures and take the following points:
There is no absolute correlation between the number of tests done per million of population and the number of cases and deaths when you compare different countries. For example UK with 3,451,223 tests per million, has also a high death rate per million of 1,888 and no of cases per million of 81,486. Hong Kong tests per million 2,702,318, deaths per million is 28 and cases 1583. There are many more examples. And then look at Chile and Australia with similar number of tests and vastly different deaths and cases.
Looking at Germany, yes they have tested much less than other countries but also have a much lower number of cases and slightly lower deaths than say Austria and UK.
China, low testing low cases and low deaths.
So really the answer may be, it depends when and why you test and also what do you do when you test. My interpretation, which may be well of the mark is:
Places like china have extremely well directed testing and an efficient tracing and quarantine system and that ultimately leads to stamping down quickly on outbreaks and a much lesser need for continuous mass testing.
On the other extreme countries like UK have so politicized the process that they use statistics like mass testing as a political indicator to tout about and boast but do very little with the data, they do not act on it properly: no proper effective tracing and no appropriate quarantine, just voluntary self isolation, and therefore are forever chasing their tail with every new wave of infection.
Germany may be in the middle, wise testing, appropriate measures, compliant population that heads advise, and so on.
So in summary it is not the number of tests you do that matters, it is what you do with it!July 23, 2021 at 10:48 #74427Clark
Michael, that is why I’d like the trace-and-test “trails closed” percentage; it would be a fair measure of how much community transmission goes undetected. I strongly suspect that Germany is doing better than the UK.
But China, and most of Australia are both doing much, much better than either UK or Germany.July 23, 2021 at 10:58 #74428michael norton
by Mr. Salmond and his interviewees
It seems many countries, including Italy are now going to vaccinate children as they are coming to understand, this will not stop until children have been vaccinated.July 23, 2021 at 11:08 #74429michael norton
So, as most countries, in Europe, do not conduct as many covid tests as does the U.K.
and as infection numbers start to rise in The Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Germany, Spain, Greece and France, do you think these countries will start to up their testing regimes?July 23, 2021 at 11:17 #74430Clark
The less cases there are, the easier it is to mop up everyone they’ve been in contact with. Consider my Nanjing example, which I will link again here:
1 initial case,
10 close contacts tested,
150 casual contacts, or contacts-of-contacts tested,
30,433 speculative contacts tested.
1 positive result, 30,000+ tests, outbreak stamped out.
Now try applying similar proportions in the UK:
Say 40,000 initial cases on one given day,
400,000 close contacts, approaching half of national testing capacity,
Six million contacts of contacts – exceeds national testing capacity several times over,
Speculative contacts include the entire population.
40,000 initial cases, a million or two tests, covid everywhere; everyone is a potential carrier, no control over the virus whatsoever despite doing 30 to 60 times as many tests.
It pays to keep infection numbers low.July 23, 2021 at 11:23 #74431michael norton
Almost nobody is interested Clark in you repeating to talk about how brilliant the China Regime is.
We do not live under a Communist Regime.
We live in Western Democracies.July 23, 2021 at 11:51 #74432michael norton
GERMANY – hardly test anybody compared to the U.K.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned on Thursday that new cases of Covid-19 in her country were rising “exponentially”, driven by the Delta variant.
“We are seeing exponential growth,” she told a news conference in Berlin, adding that “every vaccination … is a small step towards a return to normality”.
So perhaps the Germans have been not watching their ball?July 23, 2021 at 12:39 #74433Clark
The politics is irrelevant. Australia has done almost as well, and they’re a Conservative government. New Zealand never let it in in the first place, and they’re a Labour government.
If others aren’t interested, it seems that they’re ignoring best practice due to their own prejudice.July 23, 2021 at 12:49 #74434glenn_nl
Michael – kindly do not speak on behalf of anyone except yourself. I, for one, am very interested in Clark’s comparison of our approach with China’s.
If you have such an aversion to China, there are plenty of other forms of government, and you can see their responses – New Zealand and Taiwan spring to mind.
It appears you are looking for an excuse to dismiss success stories, falling back to the right-wing, business-first approach pushed by the populist press, which is owned and operates on behalf of the billionaire class. They want business running full bore again and damn the consequences to the “little people” on the front lines.
Except they are stupid and wrong, as usual – “freedom” as defined by the reckless right will end up with mass illness and death, a crippled economy and far worse consequences at every level.July 23, 2021 at 12:57 #74436michael norton
We have been told, the last big event, such as we are hurtling through now, was The Flu at the end of The First World War.
We did not have much in the way of medicine then.
Now we have many vaccines that are becoming available and treatments.
Our way forward is going to be mass vaccination.
In Europe they are now planning vaccination “papers”
that is health passes, that you will need to gain entry into public buildings, public transport and night clubs.
I expect we will have to do the same.July 23, 2021 at 13:00 #74437michael norton
We went through The First World War, The Flu, The Great Depression, The End of Empire, The Second World War.
We do not need to live in a Communist Regime.July 23, 2021 at 13:38 #74438glenn_nl
While Michael rants on about communism – for reasons best known to himself – I thought the comrades here would be amused to hear about a cartoon I was sent this morning.
It depicts the Titanic doing down, with the following speech bubbles rising from it:
“First they said unsinkable. Now they say we’re sinking?
Why should we believe them?”
“I don’t see an iceberg!
Nobody I know saw an iceberg!”
“The hole in the ship is below the waterline?
Oh, that’s convenient! HOAX!”
“This crisis was made up by the lifeboat industry!
You can’t make ME get in a lifeboat.
I have rights!”
—July 23, 2021 at 13:56 #74439Clark
I hope the vaccines work, because ‘my’ government hasn’t left any other choice. But it isn’t a clear success so far, and I’m not keen on having to be jabbed every six months nor having to carry papers to prove it.
Glenn_nl, great cartoon!July 23, 2021 at 14:05 #74440Clark
Just because a government is bad at one thing doesn’t mean it can’t be good at something else. Hitler’s Nazis made the trains run on time. That doesn’t mean that the only way to make trains run on time is to exterminate Jews and Gypsies.
By your argument michael norton, Churchill should never have declared war upon Germany. War necessitated rationing, blackout, conscription, commandeering and evacuation of children to the countryside – all of them restrictions on basic liberties. Just let the Nazis in if that’s what they want – they’re not so bad, if they even exist at all; maybe if we don’t keep counting them it’ll seem like they’re not here.July 23, 2021 at 15:12 #74442SA
So for Michael Norton, we must not aspire to be like the Chinese because they are communist. Now I seem to remember that we were told that the reason why the West was so successful is because of capitalism which encourages competition and light touch government because it allows the market to regulate itself, despite the fact that this has produced great inequalities and increasing poverty in an ever increasing proportion of the population, and an exploitation of developing countries. So now that China has adopted some of the methods of capitalism but with some socialist/communist slant, it has become a bad thing. Humility demands that we get the best of both worlds and learn from the Chinese and adopt some of their success methods to improve the lot of humanity rather than to increase the oppression. After all would it be better to be able to live without lockdowns and fear of infections and with life returning to normal after a stringent but short lockdown, or to preserve ‘freedom’ live in constant threat of lockdowns, mass infections and economic ruin?July 23, 2021 at 18:14 #74447glenn_nl
Clark: “Glenn_nl, great cartoon!”
Glad you liked it… another one had a picture of Anthony Fauci in a lab coat, with the apparent caption:
“Sure, I spent 50 years of my life studying viruses, so that I could “trick” rednecks into wearing a paper mask. That was my career goal.”July 23, 2021 at 18:42 #74448michael norton
China sent in thousands of troops to enforce its claim on the region in 1950. Some areas became the Tibetan Autonomous Region and others were incorporated into neighbouring Chinese provinces.
Campaign groups accuse China of political and religious repression and say it continues to violate human rights.
I expect China lovers think it is a good idea that China controls Tibet, crushes their culture and robs their identity?
It will do similar to Xinjiang, Hong Kong, then Taiwan.
[ MOD: This has absolutely nothing to do with this topic, which concerns “Conspiracy Theorists, Why is Westminster Lifting All COVID Restrictions?”
Kindly do not post so blatantly off-topic on forums threads. Start a new thread on a subject if it interests you and you would like debate on it. Kindly desist from posting snippets of news too – all such will be removed. ]
July 23, 2021 at 19:08 #74449michael norton
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by degmod.
Hello Clark, you are right.
For the U.K. the only choice is to take the vaccine or not take the vaccine.
Boris Johnson is a liar and a charlatan.
Yes, we all know that, he, like Mrs. Thatcher will not change his spots.
The question should now be, will they vaccinate children to bring the end-game nearer?
Many other countries, seem to be going to do that.July 24, 2021 at 10:46 #74463Clark
Michael, my position is that China is Evil Empire Joint Second with Russia, rather mediocre runners up to the USA and its assorted minions of satellite states too many to list.
But the Chinese government doesn’t seem to be using much brutality in its virus control measures.
We’d have heard about it, because Evil Empires number one hobby is slagging each other off in a ludicrous competition for some imagined moral high ground which not one of them remotely deserves. Compare your average superpower with the folks down your street. How often do they invade each others’ places or throw bombs at other families? Arm and support murderous bullies just because “we know they won’t cooperate with our enemies”? Develop, build and stockpile enough high tech weapons to wipe out the entire street several times over in various interesting ways? States act like thugs, and the bigger they are and the more weapons they’ve got the worse their behaviour. We’d never find it acceptable in our communities, but we each tolerate it from our ‘own’ governments. But sorry, I’m ranting.July 24, 2021 at 11:31 #74464Clark
Should children be vaccinated?
OK, first thing; it’s not up to me, and I shouldn’t decide. Two pages of comments back, SA linked to the UK rules of medical consent, and I think they’re about right:
I expect in practice that most children will be vaccinated.
The appropriate tool when considering whether to vaccinate is cost-benefit analysis. In this case the choice of population to include in the analysis affects the balance; if we consider only the children, there will be less benefit than if we consider the entire population.
In both cases we can assess only costs and benefits to date – there could be unforeseen risks with covid itself, and (less likely) with the vaccines. To compare these, we need to know how well the vaccines prevent children from getting infected, and we can’t know that for potential future variants.
So no cost-benefit analysis is likely to be everyone’s favourite, and all are going to include considerable uncertainty.
What we definitely need to avoid is polarised, rhetorical argument over the evidence. We need to maximise light and minimise heat.
I’d feel more confident about vaccine development under less urgent conditions, and I expect others would too.July 24, 2021 at 12:39 #74466michael norton
We in Europe seem to be riding covid rollercoasters.
Spain seems to be well into its fifth wave.
Spain’s figures, do seem chaotic, which makes them difficult to fathom.
Damping down, then undamping.
The one tool that we have that will make a difference is covid vaccination full coverage.
If we hardly vaccinate anybody under eighteen but mostly vaccinate everybody older than eighteen, we will keep a large reservoir of infection, which will continue to fuck us up.July 24, 2021 at 13:48 #74469Clark
I’m still for making conditions less urgent; it’s cheap, simple and reliable, it needn’t take long and it’d make the benefits of vaccination less uncertain by reducing mutation, but it would require good leadership and a proper plan and I’ve seen no sign of either.
Yes, I see what you mean about Spain’s figures. A map of Spain’s infection prevalence might help – covid tends to cluster a lot so sometimes a peak in one region suddenly flares up just as another was diminishing – or maybe it’ll smooth out after a few days.July 24, 2021 at 14:36 #74473Clark
Michael, a Chinese scientific paper about the first outbreak of Delta in mainland China:
I don’t know if it’s been peer reviewed, but note that one of the researchers is at Oxford. The outbreak was contained and thus extinguished, every case being traced back to the index case. A total of 167 local infections were identified. It is likely that far more people than that were quarantined, and I don’t know how long anywhere was locked down for; probably up to a month seeing as 30 million tests were performed. However, the government’s prompt adjustment of policy, even before the research was complete, is commendable:
“Our investigation on the quarantined subjects suggested for the Delta variant, the time window from the exposure to the detection of viruses was peaks at ~3.7 days and presented a higher infectiousness/transmission risk when the virus was first detected. In response to this notable viral parameter, the government required people leaving the Guangzhou city from airports, train stations and shuttle bus stations to show proof of a negative COVID-19 test within 72 hours on June 6 and further shorten into 48 hours on June 7, in contrast to the seven days in the 2020 epidemic.”
That’s really “following the science”, such a contrast to the empty sloganeering from Westminster.July 24, 2021 at 14:42 #74474Clark
I doubt that a similar study could be performed in the UK or even most of Europe; there’s just too much infection everywhere to be able to determine transmission chains and times so clearly, and not enough quarantine.July 24, 2021 at 15:49 #74478michael norton
Although “the finding” of the Oxford Vaccine was most wonderful
and the consequent early adoption of the Biontech Vaccine roll-out
and slightly later adoption of the Oxford Vaccine roll-out
have been most wonderful, we now, with DELTA, seem again to be acting like a flounder out of sea.
So many ( 2/3 million) are pinged that the Economy of U.K. is again starting to implode.
Where is the leadership – they are isolating!!!
[ Mod: Michael, please stop splitting your sentences with separate lines for different clauses (as above). The mods have been stitching them back together anyway, but it would save time if you could follow the normal writing conventions when you post. Thanks. ]July 24, 2021 at 17:56 #74494Clark
A couple of thoughts about the Chinese government…
Shortly after they stopped trying to cover up and admitted they had a problem, they said that the new virus wasn’t a bioweapon-level threat, but they were going to treat it like one anyway. Sorry, I don’t have a link; this is something I was told by a good source. But with the possibility of it being a lab escape, I can’t help wondering if they know something we don’t…
And one of their more totalitarian aspects that they certainly have been using, and which will have undoubtedly helped them, is state control of both broadcast and internet media – no conspiracy theorists, anti-vaxxers or denialists to give the public weird ideas.
These are observations, not praise – but with freedom comes responsibility; that’s an inevitability.July 24, 2021 at 18:15 #74498ET
Why is Westminster Lifting All COVID Restrictions?
“A scientist advising the government has accused ministers of allowing infections to rip through the younger population in an effort to bolster levels of immunity before the NHS faces winter pressures.”
A guardian article link.
““What we are seeing is a decision by the government to get as many people infected as possible, as quickly as possible, while using rhetoric about caution as a way of putting the blame on the public for the consequences,” said Prof Robert West, a health psychologist at University College London who participates in Sage’s behavioural science subgroup.”
Perhaps that is why they are slow to roll out vaccines for younger folk? They want them to acquire natural immunity. It would be cheaper. Or perhaps not, who knows? An angle worth considering.
July 24, 2021 at 18:16 #74499michael norton
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by modbot.
Clark, this interviewer, asked Europe WHO three times about how covid got started, he repeats that that is a question for doctor Tedros
and that this spokesperson only speaks on matters effecting Europe and that China is not in Europe, therefore what ever does or does not happen in China is not in his remit?July 24, 2021 at 18:24 #74503michael norton
Although you might think this WHO spokesperson for Europe was speaking like a parrot, [line break removed] I guess he was hinting that he had been hobbled and he must not go there, meaning he must say nothing about China, other than China is not in Europe.
Under the surface, I guess you might imagine, this spokesperson thinks there is much truth covered up by China
as to how covid got going to a flying start, that has barely hurt China but has slaughtered the rest of the World.July 24, 2021 at 18:37 #74506ET
I’m not seeing anything in the text from that link you provided where anyone is asking anyone anything. Is there are video I am inadvertently blocking? From the same website Michael there is a piece relating to The WHO calls for audit of Chinese labs where COVID-19 was first identified.
“Ghebreyesus’s demand comes a day after he said it was premature to rule out a potential link between the pandemic and a laboratory leak.”
I guess The WHO has to walk a wobbly political tight rope.
July 24, 2021 at 18:44 #74507michael norton
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by modbot.
Yes there was a video — WHO Europe Chief KlugeJuly 24, 2021 at 23:00 #74519Clark
There was already a US intelligence agency report, well before the pandemic, about poor biosecurity at Wuhan Institute of Virology, yet nothing was done to stop US government money buying gain of function and other virus culturing at the facility.
We all know why rich corporations outsource to places like China; poorer working conditions make it cheaper.July 25, 2021 at 10:42 #74525Clark
Mods, has a comment of mine from yesterday gone missing? About how journalists should be hassling the Permanent Members of the UN Security Council rather than the relatively powerless WHO, and researchers these days often being contracted under non-disclosure agreements? It’s possible that I composed it but forgot to post it, or I posted it in the wrong place. Or, if it broke a moderation rule, please let me know which one.
[ MOD: There is no record of a post of yours being deleted yesterday ]
July 25, 2021 at 11:17 #74527Clark
- This reply was modified 2 months ago by degmod.
The UK positive tests seven day average has now fallen for the third consecutive day. I don’t want to get too optimistic because positive tests usually fall each weekend, only to catch up with a surge on Tuesday or Wednesday, but it could be a very hopeful sign.July 25, 2021 at 11:49 #74529michael norton
Hello Clark, yes, fallen for half a week now but the effects of Freedom Day have not yet worked in to our numbers.
Interestingly, almost half of European countries have not yet filed figures for Friday, the one I am interested is Spain, which on last showing was only a bit less than the U.K. the current ground-breaker of covid.July 25, 2021 at 11:59 #74530michael norton
Doctor Hans Henri Marcel Paul Kluge
He continued his work for MSF in the area of TB control with a posting in Siberia, where he coordinated TB programs in prisons. He later served as MSF’s Regional TB Advisor for former Soviet Union countries, at which point he was based in Moscow, Russia.
https://www.euro.who.int/en/about-us/executive-council/dr-hans-henri-p.-klugeJuly 25, 2021 at 13:03 #74532Clark
It’s really not fair for journalists to pester the WHO about the origin of SARS-CoV-2. The WHO’s is tasked with improving health and healthcare globally, and they’ll be hobbled in that if they lose the cooperation of the Chinese government. The WHO has no power over governments.
The origins dispute isn’t about some random possible lab leak. It is about a very specific US government funded research programme that had been outsourced via New York based Ecohealth Alliance to Wuhan Institute of Virology. Modifying viruses to have precisely the attributes of SARS-CoV-2 is exactly what the US research programme was doing.
The Chinese government can be accused of covering up, but Ecohealth Alliance even more so. It was Ecohealth Alliance that took offline the database of bat coronaviruses closely related to SARS-CoV-2 soon after the pandemic was identified. Ecohealth Alliance should be made to open its records, but they are subject to US courts and law, not Chinese.
So the dispute is between two Permanent Members of the UN Security council ie. nuclear armed superpowers, namely the governments of the USA and China. The ‘news’ media should let the WHO get on with its job and direct their questions to the UNSC instead.July 25, 2021 at 13:32 #74533michael norton
Conspiracy Theorists, Why is Westminster Lifting All COVID Restrictions?
Rather a good question, number one, not quite all restrictions or Johnson, Sunak & Javid
would not all be self-isolating.
number two, we still have a massive red-list where you are not supposed to travel to or from.
Number three the health service is buggered, try seeing a doctor?
Then there is the pinging.
So they have not lifted all restrictions.July 25, 2021 at 14:39 #74535SA
With respect to ‘Freedom day’. Whilst everyone was getting excited about this freedom to infect others, the government was quietly introducing a sweeping reform in the law to curb our freedom to demonstrate and various other freedoms. But it seems nobody really cares, not even the covid deniers who claim that covid is a smokescreen for curbing our freedom. The press is certainly not really interested.July 25, 2021 at 17:14 #74545ET
“US government funded research programme”
Did you see the clip of an exchange between Rand Paul and Fauci in a senate committee hearing? I don’t think this is going to go away any time soon but maybe in the end it may curb gain of function research and make the world take a closer look at the work being done in these biolabs. I think neither China nor the USA wants light shone on it.
I have seen a number of articles relating to that bill in the Guardian and other places. Didn’t even Theresa May speak against it and a number of other conservative MPs? Is it actually passed or does it have further debate scheduled before a commons vote?