The Decline of Fossil Fuels and Limits of Renewable Energy


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  • #91719 Reply
    Clark
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    Nuclear power produces a small proportion of the world’s electricity, so an even smaller proportion of humanity’s total energy. It could be scaled up, but there isn’t really enough uranium:

    World’s Uranium Resources Enough for the Foreseeable Future, Say NEA and IAEA in New Report

    – IAEA iaea.org

    – … The world’s conventional identified uranium resources amounted to 8 070 400 tonnes of uranium metal (tU) as of 1 January 2019. These represent all reasonably assured and inferred uranium resources that could be recovered at market prices ranging from 40 to 260 USD/KgU (equivalent to 15 to 100 USD/lb U3O8). Compared to the total reported in the 2018 edition, this is an increase of only 1%. A small portion of the overall changes in identified resources relate to new discoveries…

    – …Depending on developments in the nuclear energy sector, reactor-related uranium requirements could range from 56 640 tU/yr in a low demand scenario to 100 224 tU/yr in a high demand scenario by 2040…

    – Given these projections, the uranium resource base described in the Red Book is more than adequate to meet low and high case uranium demand through 2040 and beyond. Meeting high case demand requirements through 2040 would consume about 28% of the total 2019 identified resource base recoverable at a cost of < USD 130/kgU (USD 50/lb U3O8) and 87% of identified resources available at a cost of < USD 80/kgU (equivalent USD 30/lb U3O8)…

    I make that about eighty to one hundred and fifty years worth. This is “conventional uranium”, ie. it’s in a readily available form, and of course there are other forms that are more difficult to recover – but that’s a depletion scenario, just as with fossil hydrocarbons. So I’ll hazard a guess that uranium couldn’t supply all humanity’s energy needs for more than about fifty years.

    #92120 Reply
    Clark
    Guest

    Here’s an interesting paper from 2010 that’s relevant to this discussion; one that may interest Lapsed Agnostic:

    The status of conventional world oil reserves — Hype or cause for concern?

    DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2010.02.026

    Nick Owen, University of Cambridge;
    Oliver R Inderwildi, Swiss Academy of Sciences;
    David A. King – (Wikipedia page)

    The status of world oil reserves is a contentious issue, polarised between advocates of peak oil who believe production will soon decline, and major oil companies that say there is enough oil to last for decades. In reality, much of the disagreement can be resolved through clear definition of the grade, type, and reporting framework used to estimate oil reserve volumes.

    #92510 Reply
    Phantomio
    Guest

    I think that the main problem with a renewable energy right now in the world, it is an absolute disproof of its usage. I mean, people (or governments?) are trying to implement them instead of fossil fuels.

    In my opinion, renewable energy is a pivotal factor. However, it should not be an absolute solution to everything. At least, until the humankind will research better renewable energy and its proper connection to our daily life.

    Right now, thanks to the fossil fuels, I am able to order things from abroad. Thanks to it, I was able to transport to spain from uk two high-priced nezuke statues that I was about to gift to parents of my wife. I do not think, that renewably energised ships would be able to do that. Do you know why? Because they do not exist yet, haha.

    #92520 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    Err, Phantomio.

    So, all the historical Spanish in South America, the Dutch merchants and the British east india company didn’t use sailing ships?
    You’re kidding, right?
    2 million Irish emigrants swam to USA across the atlantic in the 1840’s?

    Also, there are a number of enterprises who have in development electric and wind powered/assisted ships. Airbus being one. Ships are big. The weight of electric power storage isn’t such a problem as it is on air craft.

    #92522 Reply
    Clark
    Guest

    Phantomio: spambot, somewhat dysfunctional.

    ET: Fairtransport.

    #97321 Reply
    Natasha
    Guest

    Re Lapsed Agnostic’s nonsense suggestion the laws of thermodynamics can be ignored:-

    […] here’s a link about how to supply the entire world’s energy needs using renewable sources from the late Prof David Mackay of Cambridge University:

    https://www.withouthotair.com/c30/page_235.shtml

    No it isn’t, as I have previously informed you!

    “By my back-of-fag-packet calculations, there are around 12 trillion tonnes of neodymium the uppermost kilometre of the Earth’s non-oceanic crust – that’s around 1500 tonnes for every person on the planet. It’s a similar story for copper, cobalt & lithium.”

    Q: WHERE DO YOU GET THE ENERGY TO REFINE THESE METALS?
    A: more energy is needed than one can yield.

    “As I’ve previously informed you, petroleum diesel in mining equipment can be replaced with biodiesel. Around 10% of all the diesel currently sold in Europe for cars & trucks is biodiesel. It’s categorically *not* thermodynamically impossible for wind & solar to replace fossil fuels because every hour more energy arrives from the Sun than human beings use in a year. Renewables are currently being expanded at unprecedented rates. Of course, nuclear power can be used as a stopgap.”

    More magic thinking.

    Q: WHERE DO YOU GET THE ENERGY TO PLANT TRANSPORT & REFINE THESE PLANTS?
    A: more energy is needed than one can yield.

    Please I give up until you answer these questions in an honest way.

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