The SNP risks a great loss in putting Independence on the back-burner. They have the huge energy of the street Yes campaign behind them. Shifting from fifth gear to reverse risks not only loss of momentum, but damage. “Go out and work for Independence!” is what 80,000 new members want to hear. “Go out and work for Devo-Max and a supply and confidence agreement with Labour at Westminster”, is not.
I was not too concerned at reports that Alex Salmond had said that Independence may not feature in the SNP’s coming Westminster manifesto, and it would be up to Nicola Sturgeon. It was just one interview, and the great man was possibly just musing, I thought. But then we had Nicola Sturgeon’s message to all members, repeated as adverts in the newspapers, setting out the stall for the General Election. This makes no mention of Independence at all.
I think there are two major mistakes here. The first is that rather than state its fundamental beliefs, the SNP is tailoring its message to be appropriate to a specific tactical situation – a hung parliament with the SNP able to sustain a Labour-led government, in return for certain demands. Tailoring the message to this circumstance is a mistake because it is a scenario which is entirely beyond the power of the SNP, or even Scotland, to bring about. And my very firm prediction is that it will not happen.
Labour and the Tories are neck and neck in recent polls, but I fully expect the Tories will make ground, as the incumbent government always does in the final months before a UK general election. They have the opportunity of a populist budget to boost them. UKIP support will dip, disproportionately returning to the Tories. Murdoch will back Cameron, along with the Mail, Express and Telegraph. The Tories have over twice the campaign funds of Labour. The LibDem vote will plummet but they will hold on to more of their own seats UK wide than a uniform swing would indicate. I am willing to bet that the Conservatives remain in power, probably still as the ConDems, after the General Election.
In this scenario, what happens in Scotland is irrelevant to who forms the UK government – as so often. Whether there are more Labour or more SNP on the opposition benches will make little difference to Cameron and Osborne. What will happen, however, is an increasingly urgent demand for Scottish Independence in the face of five more years of unwanted Tory rule in Scotland.
It is tactically essential that, in this scenario, the SNP MP’s can claim to have been elected on a clear mandate for Independence. The SNP may have a majority of Scottish MP’s after May. There will be a vote on whether the UK leaves the EU. Should the UK vote to leave the EU (which is not improbable), the demand for Scottish Independence may become overwhelming. If at that stage we have a majority of Scottish MP’s clearly elected for Independence, there are a number of possible options for achieving Independence. If however those MPs were elected only on a platform that prioritised Devo-Max, the arguments look very different.
The second major mistake is that Devo-Max is unobtainable. Whitehall and Westminster will never agree to hand over to Scotland its full oil or whisky revenues. It is in any event not possible for Scotland to run an expansive fiscal policy within the overall control of the Treasury and Bank of England. It is possible to get limited extra powers for the Scottish parliament. The Smith Commission is very close to the limit of what Westminster will ever agree within the Union. Even were Smith to be fully implemented (which like Calman it won’t) it is no substitute for Independence.
And as I have frequently stated, so long as our foreign and defence policy is still controlled by Westminster, so long as they can still send Scots to fight and die in illegal wars, so long as they can involve us in hideous torture and permanent conflict in the Middle East, we have not obtained ethical responsibility, and the rest means little.
Many No voters already regret their vote. The SNP does not need to pitch its message to appeal to continuing unionists. As the Independence vote is heavily behind the SNP, while the Unionist vote has more significant diversions between Labour, Tory, Liberal and UKIP, under first past the post the Yes voters alone will sweep the board – which is precisely what opinion polls show as happening.
The other thing we know from the Referendum is that a significant number of SNP voters, voted No. The truth is that not every supporter of the SNP is a fervent supporter of Independence. Certainly a great many members do not relate to the social radicalism and desire for sweeping societal change that motivated so much of the astonishing street Yes campaign.
The SNP has now a substantial professional class. It has MSP’s, Scottish ministers, MP’s and MEP’s, and all their research assistants, secretaries, constituency secretaries and SPADs. It has paid councillors, committee chairs, leaders of councils. It has a Chief Executive and HQ staff. If the process of gradualism has brought you a good income and a comfy living, it is a natural temptation to see the accretion of a few more powers, and the addition of a lot more jobs for MP’s and their staff, as all part of useful progress, without wanting to risk anything too radical. Independence can become a misty aspiration, lost in the day to day concerns of genuinely ultra-important stuff like running the NHS or schools or local transport.
The SNP is not the small band of noble rebellious souls it once was. It is now a major institution in itself, and part of the fabric of the British state. Institutions, even composed of the nicest people, always develop and protect their corporate interest.
I worry that the downplaying of the Independence goal for the General Election may drain the fire from those 80,000 Yes-oriented new members. I worry even more that this may not be an accident.
Nevermind
““There is a fear that such uncertainty caused by the failure of either party to win an overall majority], if it lasts more than a very few days, will cause a run on sterling, turmoil in the bond markets and a possible need to raise interest rates, which would slow down and perhaps reverse Britain’s economic recovery.”
Whoever has written this # best tripe# Tm, although fresh and funny. has not much experience with coalition forming.”
_______________
Well actually, dear Ingo, that was written by Brian Barder (as should have been obvious to you). Check him out – he’s a former colleague of Craig’s.
You will find that he most certainly has rather more experience and knowledge of politics than you do.
Although I should probably admit that your own writings would seem to qualify you as a leading expert on tripe.
Not departed, I’m afraid.
Habbabkuk, thanks for posting the constitutional information from Brian Barder.
Everyone, that looks pretty important to me; it’s daft to criticise Habbabkuk when he’s actually done something useful.
Habbabkuk, your Netiquette is dreadful. Just a summary and a link. Please. Please. Please! (groan).
Habbabkuk, did you ever get a “Friend Request” from Brian through a Hispanic dating and gambling site? It rather surprised me when I got one…
Habbabkuk, you do know how to post a link, I hope?
Thanks for the info on Kildrummy Herbie and Node. If this company knew what was going on or sanctioned it, surely they are just as guilty. The endangered birds’ crime was to eat the pheasant chick feed.
~~
This is another story about birds – endangering colonies of seabirds which are threatened anyway by shortage of sand eels.
The RSPB have taken their time to object to the construction of these four offshore wind farms for which permission has already been given in the Firths of Forth and Tay.
This is the current BBC report. A figure of 400 wind turbines is quoted.
RSPB Scotland challenges wind farms
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-30785448
Their previous report gives more details on the bird colonies.
10 October 2014
Four wind farms off the Tay and Forth win approval
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-tayside-central-29571089
Green energy or the birds? Is their a choice?
O/T A scandal that has been allowed to happen in OUR NHS. Yes it does belong to us and not to the would be privateers.
12 January 2015
East of England Ambulance 999 downgrade period saw 57 patients die
Dozens of patients whose 999 calls were downgraded by an ambulance emergency centre later died, a report reveals
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30782092
Things were going wrong for a long time, viz
999 downgrade of ambulance patients 08 JANUARY 2015, ENGLAND
Ambulance trust fined for slowness 29 AUGUST 2014, ENGLAND
Health boss claimed £30,000 expenses 28 AUGUST 2014, ENGLAND
Trust still failing 999 call targets 29 JANUARY 2014, ENGLAND
Rural ambulance times ‘need rethink’ 30 DECEMBER 2013, NORFOLK
Ambulance ‘incompetence’ criticised 26 JUNE 2013, ENGLAND
Jeremy Hunt and co have failed to do their duty.
Herbie
“He’s been imprisonned, sacked, thrown out of the gillies, had his gun licences revoked, and lost his tied home, but I’d have thought he was doing what his employers wanted, protecting the pheasant shooting.”
_______________
What is your basis for assuming that the gamekeeper thought his employers would want him to protect the shooting by illegally killing protected birds?
BTW, I’m opposed to shooting pheasants for “sport” – what about you?
Mary
“12 January 2015
East of England Ambulance 999 downgrade period saw 57 patients die
Dozens of patients whose 999 calls were downgraded by an ambulance emergency centre later died, a report reveals
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30782092”
________________
Is there any evidence of a connection between any of those 57 deaths and the downgrading of those patients’ 999 calls?
Clark
“Habbabkuk, you do know how to post a link, I hope?”
______________
No.
But even if I did, I thought Brian’s post merited reproduction in full and not just a mere link.
Clark
“Everyone, that looks pretty important to me; it’s daft to criticise Habbabkuk when he’s actually done something useful.”
_______________
You cheeky so and so! All my actions are useful.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Habbabkuk, your Netiquette is dreadful. Just a summary and a link. Please. Please. Please! (groan).”
_______________________
Netiquette is merely the internet version of the politically correct. I am above such petty constraints.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“Habbabkuk, did you ever get a “Friend Request” from Brian through a Hispanic dating and gambling site?”
___________________
Certainly not. I am not on Facebook, which is strictly for the intellectually challenged and the verbally incontinent.
“What is your basis for assuming that the gamekeeper thought his employers would want him to protect the shooting by illegally killing protected birds?”
They’re birds of prey, habby.
He’s employed to protect the game.
Will shoot poachin peasants if need be.
Will you be needing further clues?
I’ll admit there’s a bit of plausible deniability. There always is, isn’t there.
One thing that can be said with certainty is
If Labour entered a coalition with The Tories for the purpose of keeping the SNP out power at Westminister then Labour would be wiped out in Scotland for ever”!!!.
Once that happens Independence is very close
He’s been imprisonned, sacked, thrown out of the gillies, had his gun licences revoked, and lost his tied home, but I’d have thought he was doing what his employers wanted, protecting the pheasant shooting.
Almost certainly so. But he was caught, and his employers couldn’t be seen to condone or defend his actions – he was just an employee, d’ye see? And being besieged by tree huggers, let alone being summonsed, is so infra dig.
That’s the way it works, I’m afraid. Estate workers are still subject to feudal values, even if their masters are upjumped Russian oligarchs or offshore property investment firms like Kildrummy Property Investments Ltd. The tied house is as good as a set of manacles, in this respect. The factor will have done the dirty work, probably without referring it higher, though.
Kildrummy have form in other directions:
http://swarb.co.uk/kildrummy-jersey-ltd-v-inland-revenue-commissioners-ihcs-1990/
(much-cited judgement)
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/woman-wins-court-battle-to-keep-tenancy-of-farm-1.469995
Oh, and neither buzzards nor red kites eat pheasant chicks’ food. They eat, among many other things, pheasant chicks. Their depredations are much exaggerated, though. I’d say their main influence on a shooting estate would be to stimulate the dim little brains of what are effectively pet gamebirds to the point where they become harder to shoot.
Herbie
““What is your basis for assuming that the gamekeeper thought his employers would want him to protect the shooting by illegally killing protected birds?”
They’re birds of prey, habby.
He’s employed to protect the game.
Will you be needing further clues?”
_____________________
Not clues, Herbie (we’re not in an Agatha Christie novel, you know) but and indication of why you think that the gamekeeper’s remit which you describe accurately if somewhat globally – extends to permission or incitation to illegally kill protected bird species.
Have another go!
“we’re not in an Agatha Christie novel, you know”
You are, habby. And currently you’re clueless.
Remember, you’re not the only player.
I can’t just give the answer straight out like that. I’d be unfair on all the other players.
I am however prepared to give you extra help just to even up the game.
You’re already way behind everyone else.
There’s always one, eh.
Don’t worry. Ba’al won’t see this, but you get an extra cheat by reading his.
@Mary: “Green energy or the birds? Is their a choice?”
(WRT find farms)
Isn’t this a bit of a false choice, though? Reading your BBC link from RSPB Scotland, I couldn’t see anything suggesting that wind farms are killing birds. I’ve wondered this for a while, because people complain about windfarms spoiling the environment, as if opencast mining, and mountain-top removal mining, is not an absolute horror.
People complain about the magnets and moving parts in wind turbines, as if the turbines in coal, oil, gas, nuclear or virtually all other generation had no moving parts!
Is there any proper information to suggest that wind turbines are a serious and documented hazzard to birds?
Glenn Here
Offshore wind farms are impacting seabirds and migrating passerines
With the number of offshore wind farms in European waters, and elsewhere, set to rise dramatically in the coming years, it is critical that the implications for wildlife are fully considered. Birds, in particular, are at risk through collisions, barrier effects and habitat loss.
http://www.birdlife.org/datazone/sowb/casestudy/289
and here
Scaling possible adverse effects of marine wind farms on seabirds: developing and applying a vulnerability index
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.0021-8901.2004.00918.x/full
There is an enquiry ongoing on the Navitus Bay wind farm proposal, a scheme for massive turbines sited off the Purbeck Coast, a World Heritage site, in Dorset. There are obviously objections about the effect on bird migration and damage that could be caused to them.
‘The original application for Navitus Bay would have placed the 204 turbines – which are between 580 and 656 feet tall – less than 9 miles from shore at the closest point, by Durlston Head. The revised proposal would be almost 12 miles from shore.’ Telegraph.
So far it’s all a bit of a joke. Poor management and lack of a proper plan.
‘But critics point out that the high value of payments reflect a fundamental problem with wind power.
Wind turbines are inherently unpredictable, depending on the weather, and so must be controlled to stop surges causing physical damage to electricity cables and equipment.
The windiest places are often the furthest away from cities where the power is needed, meaning high transmission costs.
The overwhelming majority of the payments to date have been to wind farms in Scotland, where the bulk of wind farms are located.
Electricity demand in Scotland does not match the power produced on the windier days, but cable networks to take the power south into England have not yet been constructed.’
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2827555/Wind-farms-paid-43million-stand-idle-far-year-producing-power-National-Grid-handle.html
0730
Tony Blair has been speaking our political editor Nick Robinson ahead of this year’s general election. He was speaking to Nick for his new series “Can Democracy work?” which starts on Radio 4 on Tuesday.
(Radio 4 ‘Today’ running order, today)
Caught this before reaching for the sick bag and changing channels. I genuinely hate very few people, but Blair makes up for that in spades. Robinson’s series is a three-parter, starting with a panel discussion. I imagine it won’t be terribly illuminating, and may well be intended to soften the public up for less democracy, but will give it a try (0900 and 2130, Tuesdays).
Paying Blair for his opinion on democracy, lol. Kim-jung Un would have been as good a choice.
PS, Blair appears before the NI select Committee today at 1400. He will be avoiding the issue of letters of immunity issued to fugitive IRA men, which is the subject of the enquiry. Considering himself to be above the democratic process, it took an order from the Speaker of the Commons to get him there at all – the equivalent of an ordinary prole being snatched at dawn and taken to the hearing in a police van…
PPS – On Thursday Tony Blair will be flying to Hershey, Pennsylvania, to address a Republican ‘retreat’ – a major strategy meeting, in fact:
http://newsinpenn.com/dismantling-obama-legislation-congressional-gop-lawmakers-set-tone-for-hershey-retreat/
He’ll be among friends there.
I really do not care whether this Mr. Barder was one of Craig’s colleagues, coalitions are not decided by the financial sector waiting hovering on the side lines, speed is not of the essence at all.
But why should i debate about it at all, when this is put on here by a spybot.
least to say that coalitions in the UK always have the whiff of satorical acting and haste as they are formed in times of ‘nation al crisis’
there was no national crisis asking two minority parties to speed date in 2010!
Coalitions are a tool to provide a more representative Government, not a default for what some deem a ‘national crisis’.
A hung Parliament is not a national crisis in the UK, but an inevitable result of a broken electoral system that does not represent its people anymore, just vociferous minorities. If there is a crisis, its the apathy in the electoral system.
end of.
BTW. When I’m addressed as Ingo, which is my name and many here know it, then it is only by those who think that it will hurt me. It does not, I do not have to hide for anything.
Nevermind is my chosen moniker and in future I shall not answer to anyone who does not use it.
got that, it?
coalitions in the UK always have the whiff of satorical acting and haste as they are formed in times of ‘nation al crisis’
That’s all-party coalitions, though. Which would currently be much more representative, and for which I think the 2007/8 crash was more than enough justification. Didn’t happen. The current ‘coalition’ was simply a marriage of convenience in which the Libdems’ hunger for the appearance of power trumped any ethical consideration and was irrelevant to national necessities.
@Mary: Thanks for that. It’s definitely a point for serious consideration, and I’ve have not seen any real information about casualties. It rather seemed something those opposed to windfarms (and indeed, any form of renewable energy generation) would leap upon, with crocodile tears, whereas they don’t really give a stuff about the environment.
You might be interested in a campaign which a friend in the US is deeply involved with, which opposes mountain top removal.
http://www.crmw.net/
Basically, they blast the tops off mountains, take the coal and throw all the remaining slurry down the valley, into the rivers. There are massive dams containing sludge which threaten to destroy entire communities at any time, and a huge human cost in ill health strongly associated with the toxins put into the environment (not least, by exploding around 5.5 million pounds of explosive each day). The scale of it is incredible.
http://acheact.org/
This is the sort of thing we must weigh against possible damage by windfarms.
Whatever forms the government the shadow government outside is a distraction. What should form the shadow government at its best would be the will of the people governed.
In running a business are there shadow boards of directors in “opposition”.
Knowing that least those outside of government in a majority should be there to assist in realising Ideals.
What ever governments is formed lets get behind it cause we likely going to be stuck with it.
RE: Bird deaths caused by wind turbines . . . what have they got to hide?
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/nov/17/windfarm-company-pacificorp-sues-us-government-bird-deaths
@Node: I trust you are proportionally more concerned about domestic cats, which wreck far more havoc on bird populations? This is the fascinating part, to me. People suddenly aghast at windfarm induced casualties to birds, when they’ve never given a toss about the far greater damage humans and their pets inflict for sport. Not to mention loss of habitat, gardens being paved/ decked over by the million each year, and so on.
Yes Ba’al and that of their own party membership, their share of student vote support, which used to be just over 50% has decreased to 6%, as with their other policies, whether its Trident or agreeing to wholesale off the NHS in bits and pieces, they all caused them to loose memberships.
At the next election Clegg and Lamb will be loosing their seats, who can predict Cables fate, he’s not too popular for supporting much of the Tory’s tax give away, incl. the 30 billion tax cuts Osborne has promised at Conference, still to come he says.
Shall be helping out locally, where Labour has to win seats, the unions are so desperate to help/ they sent out a link for a postal voting form already. Luckily, I will not be campaigning for Labour.
Dear UNISON Member,
2015 is set to be a crucial year in British Politics with the General Election on 7th May 2015. UNISON knows that many members will be busy at work on that day, and therefore are promoting the option of completing a postal vote.
At a time when all our public services are being slashed to the bone we need to do all we can to ensure a party which values and appreciates the role of the public sector is voted in, in May.
Attached is a general election postcard and postal vote application form. Please use your vote carefully.
Regards
UNISON Eastern Region
General Election Postcard 4th Postal Vote Application Form
Glenn, you asked “Is there any proper information to suggest that wind turbines are a serious and documented hazzard to birds?” I supplied relevant information. If you’d warned that you were going to make unwarranted assumptions about those who replied and wag your finger at them, I wouldn’t have bothered.
@Node: Thank you for the link, I should have been more appreciative. However, that link shows some speculation , denials and the suggestion that “dozens” of large birds across a number of states had been killed. While regrettable, that does not appear to be the wholesale slaughter I had been told to expect.
The idea that windfarms are a significant new hazzard to birds is still unreferenced here, as far as I can tell.
CHART: How Many Birds Are Killed By Wind, Solar, Oil, And Coal?
(not definitive, but interesting)
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2014/08/25/3475348/bird-death-comparison-chart/