Well, 24 hours later I feel no closer to understanding what just happened.
I do not buy the idea it was all a clever charade designed by Putin. The damage it has caused to his image of great strength, and to the notion of the state monopoly of violence within Russia, is greater damage than can be counterbalanced by any alleged tactical change inside Ukraine.
I don’t see that change anyway, and frankly Russia did not need any such drama. Ukraine’s much trumpeted counter-offensive appears a damp squib.
If looking for something below the surface, the idea that Prigozhin had been turned by some kind of offer from the West seems more probable, but is hard to square with his sudden capitulation.
However the surface story of what just happened is equally implausible.
Wagner seem to have suffered no major reverse and encountered no serious military opposition before they turned round and gave back all they have taken. For which Prigozhin has on the face of it received nothing in turn but a rather fragile life as a guest of Lukashenko.
While Putin appears to have allowed an actual military revolt that killed at least a few Russian soldiers and airmen to take place, with no punishment. That seems to me very contrary to Putin’s nature.
These are my thoughts. But I am struggling enormously to understand this. As are the ordinary Russian public, for whom the whole incident has been surreal.
“I am struggling enormously to understand this. As are the ordinary Russian public, for whom the whole incident has been surreal”.
Watching Patrick Lancaster’s video of the scenes last night in Rostov-on-Don proves to me that it is possible to maintain cognitive dissonance. People were celebrating Prighozhin, whom they gave a great hero’s send off to his exile in Belarus, likewise the Wagner warriors, wherever they were to go and Putin for his masterly handling of the situation. Lancaster seemed to have his facts wrong about the resignation of the defence ministers, but he captured very well the general relief of the people. If anyone was bemused it was the Wagner soldiers, as one was reported as saying something like “this afternoon we were terrorists and this evening we are heroes. I think on the whole they preferred the latter description.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qvFQJEyjwA&feature=youtu.be
The only report I’ve ever seen from Lancaster that wasn’t a carefully orchestrated fake. The difference is astounding but as you say he may be wrong about the resignations.
You got some mighty big balls to slander a man who’s been on the scene of every bombing in Donetsk (city) for the past 18 months, coming up on dead bodies and people grieving in the street. Maybe you ought to test your mettle and see if you can do better.
Sam, anything that PM doesn’t like the look of is a “carefully orchestrated fake”. That’s how he knows, nothing personal to Lancaster.
” a man who’s been on the scene of every bombing in Donetsk (city) for the past 18 months, ” and that alone doesn’t strike you as being suspicious? I’ve seen his reports, people apparently hit by shrapnel although the windows behind them remain intact, spotless clean, freshly shaven soldiers on the front line, no trenches and no attempt at cover. This is one of his earliest attempts:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NvxtJ6JnHF0
Note the body at 49″ has clearly had the top of the skull sawn off. That is clear evidence of an autopsy which means whoever it was was dead before being placed in the car, which clearly hasn’t been struck by an IED anyway. A disgusting thing to do but it’s not even a very good fake. Lancaster is either in on the fakery or is a gullible fool.
Possibly?
But was he reporting ‘ The Truth’ in Donbass betweeh 2014 and the start of the war?
A lot of selective amnesia from the media in this war.
By the way Russian women and children died then and continue to die as well as Ukrainian women and children.
Back to Bellingcat with you.
” was he reporting ‘ The Truth’ in Donbass betweeh 2014 and the start of the war? ” As the video above was posted two days before the invasion began I think the answer is no.
You don’t need Bellingcat to see the fakery. Lancaster is also a terrible actor.
Would you announce a coup plan, then move on the capital city when you know the government can tell exactly where you are and has an air force and missiles to blow you to bits with? Not really, unless you’d been led to believe that the armed forces would fall in behind you. That they didn’t at all puts the lie to claims that it shows up Putin as weak. But that’s about the only spin our propagandists can put on the situation, given that Ukrainian forces are getting nowhere.
> But that’s about the only spin our propagandists can put on the situation
I don’t really care much about the spin that “our” propagandists put on things. In my judgement, these events have made Putin look weak. He looks weak to me.
Let’s get real, Jimmeh. Whether Putin looks weak to YOU is completely irrelevant. It’s what the Russian people think that matters, no one else. And so far they seem to have accepted what he has done. The problem about appearances will arise if the “West” actually believe their own propaganda and think that Putin is significantly weaker than he was a week ago. There is no evidence that this is the case. Russians are not Brits. They usually expect a strong leader and I doubt that this is the end of any retaliation against the Wagner group. If only the media/regulators would allow other pits of view, we’d all be better placed to understand what’s actually happening.
For the US Nato war against Russia using Ukraine as a proxy, I listen and read: Andrei Martyanov Russian military expert author, Colonel Douglas Macgregor US Military, Scott Ritter US Marine, Larry Johnson CIA, Ray McGovern CIA, Alistair Crooke British Diplomat, Brian Berletic US Marine, Jeffrey Sachs and my favourite Professor Michael Hudson.
I think it’s definitely a good idea to listen to dissident voices, particularly when the official “authorities” are clearly peddling lies.
But MacGregor and Ritter (not to mention the “Assanged” Lira) have been predicting imminent Ukrainian collapse for well over a year, so I would take their prognostications (if not their analyses) with a grain of salt.
Comrades –
Hopefully this is on-topic enough. A petition:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/629895
Referendum on ending government’s economically costly Ukraine/Russia policies
The government, unless they change their policies, (including ending economically self-defeating sanctions against Russia (causing energy price rises) and sending billions in arms to Ukraine, instead becoming neutral peacemakers), to hold a UK wide referendum on the subject within six months maximum
More details –
The government have intervened on one side in the Ukraine conflict, without any mandate from UK citizens, who have had to suffer massive economic consequences.
These include increased energy, cost of living, interest rate, inflation, unemployment, tax and rates rises, plus strikes, business damage, and reduced government services.
Taxpayers paid £100bn Energy price support and £10bn Ukraine military and other aid to date.
Striving for peace would help end the bloodshed, restore stability and deescalate the world energy, food and refugee situation.
US has installed Aegis missiles in Poland and Romania on the excuse they were needed against Iran ?! These missiles can very quickly be exchanged in their canisters with nuclear Tomahawks. Would US tolerate Russian equivalents in Mexico and Cuba ? The regime change war against Russia together with the illegal unilateral sanctions are failing. Ukraine in the process is destroyed with millions of refugees going to Russia and Europe. Russian war aims are not limited to the demilitarisation and denazification of Ukraine. Nato has to remove those missiles, infrastructure and troops back to 1997 borders. This cannot be done by negotiations as treaties have been broken by US. So the only option left to Russia, as was the SMO, but to use force arms to push Nato back to 1997 for its security. US Nato does not accept Russian security needs and has openly said and planned for years to break up Russia. So direct war is inevitable and Russia is prepared for a conventional war. US however cannot match Russia in a conventional continental war and has planned to use nukes. The Europeans are suicidal fools in their vassal status. US care nought for Ukraine or Europe. It has a blind mission to take over Russia and its resources and at the same time war with China. Truly a Rouge lunatic terrorist state.
Rogue.
However, with all the Trans nonsense you may be right (Rachel Levine, Sam Brinton), a rouge state indeed.
“Would US tolerate Russian equivalents in Mexico and Cuba?”
Obviously not. In 1962 a far more realistic and level-headed US administration was ready to start a thermonuclear war to get the USSR to remove its missiles from Cuba.
Yet Cuba is at least 1,800 km from Washington DC, and Mexico is far further away. The launch sites in Poland and Romania are a little over 1,000 km from Moscow.
The only foreign location where offensive missile launchers would be really painful to the USA would be Toronto – even closer to DC than Poland or Romania to Moscow, and comparable to the range from Ukraine to Moscow.
How would Washington react to “dual-use” Russian missile launchers in Toronto? Officially claimed, of course, as a defence against Mexican missiles…
“Obviously not. In 1962 a far more realistic and level-headed US administration was ready to start a thermonuclear war to get the USSR to remove its missiles from Cuba.”
Which they did after the US had agreed to remove missiles from Turkey, which was what the whole thing was about.
yeah the sainted JFK chose to take the world to the brink of nuclear war first.
well said wikikettle… good to see some sanity here at craigs place…
Hello Glenn, thanks for the posting, something active to do and I have signed it straight away – I live in NZ but I am a British citizen of pure Scottish ancestry and we have four daughters live in the UK. Can you state who organised this petition? .I also note the petition deadlines in just two days? Has it only gathered 11,000 signatures in six months? I’d like this information before getting my daughters to consider signing. Thanks. Delighted to be able to contribute, it is definitely “on topic”. JKM
I fear PM is right, there is no way this petition is going to get enough signatures to warrant a government response, sadly.
The map gives more details, see: https://petitionmap.unboxedconsulting.com/?petition=629895
Hover over a region with your cursor to see the totals of who signed.
The names of the folk who signed it are here: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/629895.json it includes some MP’s and possible notables, (I haven’t looked at them all.)
Looks like we’re going to have to rely on our pitchforks and blazing torches for any movement forward.
Yes, pete, the names of many MPs are listed in that file … 650 of them in fact! (or 646, to be more precise – there are vacancies in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, Selby and Ainsty, Somerton and Frome, and of course Uxbridge and South Ruislip.)
It’s a count of the number of signatures per constituency, with the relevant MP’s name shown for each constituency. It isn’t a list of people who signed the petition (thankfully).
Ooops, my bad, sorry for any confusion.
Just over 11,000 signatures in six months and the deadline is Wednesday.
Good luck with that but it really shows how little support it has.
Dear Mr. Morgaine
It probably has quite widespread support but people have largely given up on democratic processes after many years of degradation, bad faith actions, very skewed info and bad options being given.
We do not live in anything close to a democracy any more, especially so in Scotland.
I’d argue that it’s not so much that “people have given up on democratic processes”, as that people know that there are no democratic processes.
Vote for whomever you like; anyone who gets onto the list of candidates is acceptable to the powers that be. No one who might under any circumstances do anything for the people will get anywhere near being a candidate.
And as for your MP – who is supposed to be your “representative” – don’t make me laugh. For him or her to raise any important issue with the Cabinet would be career suicide.
Whilst the passing of the “leisured” classes was no bad thing – why should so many people sit around doing nothing and living off rents? – it has had one deleterious effect, that all our “public servants” are now careerists, with the results that we see today.
Maybe people just want to help Ukrainians because they’re being murdered.
N: “Maybe people just want to help Ukrainians because they’re being murdered. ”
Escalating and prolonging a war, and sabotaging peace talks, is a funny way of helping.
“Maybe people just want to help Ukrainians because they’re being murdered”
Funny that no-one was really interested in helping the Iraqis when they were being murdered, but they were only ragheads, I suppose.
If you play virtue signalling bingo, then helping Ukraine is worth 10 points.
“Good luck with that but it really shows how little support it has”
It’s not lack of support it shows, but that most people realise that signing it will make f*ck all difference. The government never holds referendums unless they think they are going to get the answer they want.
The only popular expression of discontent that makes a government change course is rioting in London.
Or the indefinite absence of the Cabinet and its advisers – however caused.
I think it shows that people are sick of useless petitions that never deliver anything.
UK Gov put the petition mechanism in place to fool people into believing they could influence the government. It’s not the petitioners’ fault they, usually, have the best of intentions; it’s the government’s two faced hypocrisy that is the problem. Reality is we have been rendered powerless.
“Just over 11,000 signatures in six months and the deadline is Wednesday.
Good luck with that but it really shows how little support it has.”
This is the first time I’ve heard of it.
I suspect the bulk of the British populace do support the UK government’s policy of supporting Ukraine. After all, we’ve had so many years of all sorts of claims against Russia – the downing of MH17, the Skripal farce, the Russian Collusion hoax, etc, etc, uncritically parlayed by the MSM – that it’s hardly surprisingthe average person thinks “we” need to “stand up to Russia”.
Plus, the average person tends not to realise that government transference of resources is a mostly zero-sum – ie, government must take with one hand in order to give with the other. So they don’t link “our” foreign policy with the so-called “cost of living crisis”, which is mostly the result of monetary inflation caused by the very deficit-requiring policies the populace themselves clamour for.
As everyone’s favorite fascist observed, “Democracy is the least worst system”, but that doesn’t mean it’s very good.
On the bus yesterday I glimpsed a copy of the Metro. The large bold front page headline shrieked something about “Treason!!!”, followed by how cheering it was that 39 Russian aircrew had been killed.
According to the Kiev propaganda ministry, of course.
I wondered how British readers would feel if 39 British service people had died, and the Russians gloated over it.
“As everyone’s favorite fascist observed, “Democracy is the least worst system”, but that doesn’t mean it’s very good.”
That’s because the system we have is not democracy, it’s oligarchy and there are quite a few better systems of oligarchy than the one used to govern the UK, but we aren’t to know about them, or else we might demand change.
Yes, if only Russia were left to do what it wants in Ukraine, Putin could get on with negotiating the peace he so obviously desires. Bad West! Nice Putin!
It was the ‘exile in Belarus’ which caused me to cast a sceptical eye on the whole affair. De facto there is no border between Belarus and Russia. It’s a bit like saying ‘Boris Johnson has been exiled to Wales’. But I’m still keepng an open mind, despite a number of similiar factors..
Belarus is not under Russian government, so not quite like Wales. More like Belgium and France.
I don’t believe you need to look for anything too deep about this event than you do to the storming of the Capitol building in Washington. These events obviously have their longer underlying causes and more acute precipitating factors, but there is a randomness and unpredictability about the events themselves. What is worth discussing is the subsequent analyses which commentators and politicians might place on the event, what biases or narrative or prejudices they can employ in their narratives to persuade others or justify themselves and what this might mean for both sides’ conduct of this now confirmed NATO proxy war. .
With Prigozhin he’s been getting more and more bizarre in his behaviour and his oratory for a while, he actually seems unhinged. Does he have a pre-existing personality disorder, allied perhaps to severe stress, lack of sleep, PTSD? His choice of the action he’s undertaken is just so thoughtless and ridiculous. Did he really think he’d be able to take on the military leadership with a mere rump of the men he nominally controls (he is not their actual military leader). It seems mostly to be the precipitate action of a man at the end of his tether.
Should Pregozhin have been taken to task earlier? Perhaps, but his Wagner forces were of great value to the Russian military effort. They lost a lot of men, but I imagine Putin didn’t mind so much as many were prisoners earning their freedom by putting their lives in danger. Saves a lot of money in prison accommodation to name one advantage. But as Moon of Alabama posted, the writing of Machiavelli in regard to employing mercenaries, mercenaries and private armies can return to your shores to bite you – and that’s what’s happened here, I believe. ( https://www.moonofalabama.org/2023/06/on-prigozhins-insurrection-farce.html )
More interesting to me is the commentary in the West about this event and how, it is claimed, it proves how much weaker Putin now is, how delicate is the Russian state, how likely this could be the start of some sort of civil disorder or revolution etc etc. The event feeds into all their pre-existing assumptions and mistakes about Putin and Russia, which of course is what led to this war in the first place. Luke Harding in the Guardian excels himself in this manner: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jun/25/prigozhins-march-on-moscow-chronology-of-an-attempted-coup “Putin looking white faced and furious…”. Well, he probably was furious, but the white faced is just there to imply that Putin is scared and is a coward. “Ukrainian intelligence claimed Putin had fled north to his residence near Lake Valdi…..” Really? “For Putin this was a narrow escape…he emerges weaker and more vulnerable” Really? Luke, name a single military or political figure that supported Prigozhin. “The Ukrainians watch on with glee…..they predict the collapse, sooner or later, or Putin’s murderous regime” It’s worth quoting Luke Harding’s final paragraph:
“Putin’s dream of capturing the whole of Ukraine and “reuniting” it with Russia has not come to pass. It has turned out to be a dictator’s fantasy: the product of poor intelligence, messianic thinking and Putin’s extreme isolation during the Covid pandemic. Now Russia stands on the brink of civil strife, victory over Kyiv seems further away than ever.” Is Luke Harding also unhinged?
My narrative for what it’s worth is completely the opposite, Putin faced an unexpected and serious enough challenge in the midst of an existential threat to Russia from the West and difficult military action in Ukraine, and he’s managed the matter calmly and professionally, he has the support of the vast majority of the Russian people, the military and his political base, and Prigozhin has been neutralised with minimal violence and bloodshed within less than one day. Russia continues to exist, and its economy is intact, indeed probably in better shape than the US, certainly much more so than the UK’s. So Prigozhin gets to enjoy exile in Belarus…..I hope he has a dog or two he can get to test all his food and drink for the years he remains still alive, and he should always wear gloves, especially when opening his front door. So Prigozhin got some cheers in Rostov. He has been popular, and Russians do appreciate what he’s achieved, but I believe the majority in Russia will come to understand that what he’s done is beyond the pale and is treasonous.
Any westerner thinking that this event will in any material way affect Putin’s leadership or Russia’s resolve to win, whatever aim a win for Russia turns out to be, is sorely deluded, as they have been all along. Can I then affirm that what I’ve claimed here is right – of course not, our future can yet produce a myriad unexpected and unpredictable events to alter the course of history, but I would claim that my thoughts and prognoses are at least founded in common sense and reason, not blind delusion and prejudice as we read in Luke Harding.
The West’s MSM “analysis” is utter nonsense, as one would expect. Not one has raised the point that Prigozhin or someone like him in charge of the Russian nuclear arsenal might be…unwelcome to say the least.
The western (USA) fantasy is to: get Russia to get rid of its nukes; split Russia up into small ethnically different regions; open Russia up to western corporations; impose austerity measures on the Russian economy; and, create enmity between Russia and China.
Stage one, foment colour revolution; Stage two, install puppet. Stage three realise the western fantasy.
So far, this process has worked well in the west and North Africa.
The Russians though are blessed with national pride and a healthy distrust of the west.
It’s hard to know at this stage what was going on in Prigozhin’s head, but I believe the Russian government had ceased payments to Wagner, and they are, after all, a bunch of mercenaries (though it should be mentioned viz: Machiaveli’s warnings that the vast bulk of Wagner are Russian citizens, not the Viking/Hessian/Goth killers-for-hire that were so much more… well, mercenary… that Niccolò was most familiar with).
Prigozhin may have thought he had a Caesar’s chance of seizing Moscow, and, after being rapidly disabused of this notion by the lack of support within other Russian elites, thought better of the attempt and bailed.
The only possible upside of all this for Putin (that I can see is) that the events may have flushed out a few people in positions of power who were not whole-hearted supporters of Putin’s regime, and now they can be dealt with.
As for Harding, he’s the very worst sort of propagandist-for-hire, and I was able to observe him fairly close-up for several hours quite recently; he carries himself like a deeply unhappy man. God only knows what the security services have on him.
Harding is either an asset or an employee of the security services. He may be unhappy, but don’t be fooled, there is no decency lurking inside this evil man.
No rational person would invite Prigozhin into their home unless the potential reward exceeded the risk – and Luki is certainly rational. So what we are not told is what is in it for Luki and Belarus? Perhaps this is all about Wagner’s lucrative African mining operations. Prior to the rebellion, Russia was seeking to force Wagner under MoD control (quite possibly including the entire business). Luki’s offer is perhaps to give Prigozhin protection in exchange for an undisclosed share of the profits – Prigozhin is currently paying Russia for ‘protection’, so under the deal he is just switching to a different protector. Belarus has few opportunities for foreign income, so this will help to balance the trade deficit. There is no easy route between Belarus and Africa without flying over Russian territory, so Russia’s cooperation is also needed. To this end, we should not forget Luki has Putin somewhat under his spell – as long as he dangles the carrot of reunification in front of Putin as he has been doing for the past 30 years.
I would call this 3 snakes in a bed. It is not clear who will bite first. Will the ménage-a-trois even survive until the wedding (Prigozhin’s arrival in Minsk), or until after the honeymoon?
The CIA knew about the coup attempt days in advance and now it appears that MI5 knew about it too. The question Putin needs to be asking is why his FSB didn’t know or if they did why they didn’t tell him. Are they afraid to give him bad news or were they siding with Prigozhin?
The FSB knew about it. Igor Girkin (FSB terrorist that downed MH17) has been screaming about it for weeks. There is even an interview between WarGonzo (russian war correspondant Pegov) and Prigozhin where they are discussing shell shortage because Wagner is perceived as a threat and possible march to Moscow (not sure when that was recorded but a while back). Basically anyone who didn’t have their head in the sand knew about this. I only read what others are saying – and I knew about it and posted on June 14, 2023 at 19:29 (more than a week ago) a question to Tatanya stating ” Igor Girkin terrorist says this is rebellion and Prigozhin is actively preparing a coup” (see https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2023/06/dangers-of-ai-revealed-as-israeli-bullet-decides-to-kill-somebody/comment-page-2). Normally coups are prepared in secret, but not this one – this one was all over social media.
Link to Wargo interview: https://twitter.com/vicktop55/status/1672971205836431360 (crazy)
your selection of sources says that you understand Russian perfectly, Andrew, so this meme is especially for you.
https://cs13.pikabu.ru/post_img/2023/06/26/6/1687767760193585968.webp
By the way, do you really not know how the name Tatyana is spelled, or are you distorting it on purpose?
@Tatyana. I don’t understand Russian at all. I read the subtitles that others have translated (I trust Dmitri of https://twitter.com/wartranslated – since he not only translates but also filters out everything I don’t wish to read). He is Estonian and probably lives in UK. I am sure there are nuances that don’t translate correctly, but I am sure his translation skills are every bit as good as yours – what you are writing here in English may not be exactly as you intend (unless you are actually a native English speaker). I’m sorry I keep misspelling your name – I am English and try to remember but the placement of the y is confusing (and am too lazy to double check). There is no value is distorting in Tatyana to Tatanya – they both feel equally right (it’s not like Putin to Putler)
“The CIA knew about the coup attempt days in advance and now it appears that MI5 knew about it too”
Why does it “appear” this is the case, I mean besides the fact they’re claiming it… after the fact?
Maybe they did, maybe they didn’t, maybe the $6.2B they recently found between the sofa cushions was wasted on a fizzled coup, and Prigo promised Luki half the money in exchange for shelter.
This is all just a giant game of Liar’s Poker between the various psychopaths who run the planet, East and West. But do keep on believing whatever they tell you.
I think when they say they knew it just means that they knew it was a distinct possibility (not that they were entirely certain). There is nothing to suggest that CIA, MI6, FSB had any details beyond what was available from public sources (although they have people who are better at translating Prigozhin’s erratic speeches into possible consequences). I am sure Putin had a report on his desk with similar info – just this didn’t translate into any action to either try and resolve the tensions or to fortify Western Military head-quarters in Rostov against a move by Wagner.
And before we laugh – the Jan 6 uprising was also organized on social media (why so many of them are now being convicted based on their social media postings). Of course they knew a bunch of gun-toting patriotic Magats were going to march on the Capital and by extension if the opportunity arose would try to enter the building – they just didn’t think that would have negative consequences (beyond say the hanging of Pence).
It was a hoax , the Russian joint armed forces are a massive number , this group of mercenaries only exist because Putin wants them to exist , they do what they are told , Putin perhaps was seeking a soft touch portrayal of his image , a forgiving Putin , a fair Putin , a Putin that listens to his troops , it worked , they were given a hero’s send off !
USA will attract unwanted attention from China if it moves its armed forces into Russia or Belarus simply because Eastern Russia is fairly close to China .
USA therefore plays its war games through Europe under the cover of NATO , let’s face it the cat is out of the bag everyone ( and their cat ) knows now that NATO is an armed force under the control of USA and does nothing without USA permission.
NATO will threaten but that’s all , Europe will spend a fortune on Ukraine and then when it’s all over they will lend money to and do even more trade with Ukraine.
Ukraine will be allowed to recover but only if it demilitarises agreeably.
USA and Europe can lavish money on Ukraine make it a holiday gambling destination and Russia will stand back as long as Ukraine is neutral or demilitarised.
As we know already any country or group of countries eg U.K. / EU , that has its own currency can print as much money as it wants , no limits , but it will only spend it in its own state which in fact makes EU a favourable choice for rebuilding Ukraine because whatever they build or manufacture in EU can easily be shipped across land to Ukraine , not so for U.K. or USA this is why EU are so keen to be involved .
Of course I don’t know either, but if we’re speculating then here’s my two cents:
It must be about money. Putin being one of the world’s biggest kleptocrats, and Prigozhin a mercenary. There was already talk of Russia incorporating the Wagner operation in Ukraine into the Russian military, and bringing them under central command. My guess would be that Prigozhin thought whatever he might get paid in exchange wasn’t nearly enough to compensate him for the loss of his assets, and the march on Moscow was a seriously misguided attempt at improving his negotiating position. Whether he secured a better deal and backed down, or just belatedly realized he was hopelessly outgunned and exposed… Perhaps the latter, in view of some recent reports that his family, and the families of other senior Wagner commanders had been threatened. Now that sounds more like a Putin negotiating tactic. In any case, whatever Prigozhin gets paid into whatever accounts they might use for these things, it’s not worth much if he doesn’t live to spend it.
Putin being one of the world’s biggest kleptocrats
That is definitely 100% true because I read it in the Daily Mail with my own eyes.
?
You’re hilarious!
So Putin and his cronies aren’t amassing billions of dollars in personal wealth from Russian state resources?
It’s all about the money, of course. And then the power needed to hold onto that money.
Not that it’s too much different in the west these days. But do call a spade a spade, if it’s being used to manually dig a hole.
“So Putin and his cronies aren’t amassing billions of dollars in personal wealth from Russian state resources?”
Probably no more than any national leader these days and less than Johnson and his cronies. As for hilarity, it’s always amusing to see someone trot out something they read in the papers or found on the internet as if it was the uncontested truth.
What happened is that you’re in the same boat as Michael McFaul – you literally cannot see or understand Russia even when it’s right under your nose.
It’s just not your bailiwick, mate, so give it up. Believe it or not, Russia can govern itself WITHOUT ANYONE ELSE’S HELP or need to “understand” it.
No need to explain what happened Saturday cos it’s just too obvious. Hallmark of the true Understander.
On social media we had a rebell against new unwelcomed moderation rules, posting nonsense. The rules were changed and we then had a pleasant flash mob, we shared photos from work, described our professions and sent greetings to each other from different parts of the country. I even wrote a type of poetry to share my emotions. On Saturday, I went to see how my poetry was perceived, and there everyone was posting scary news and funny memes. On Sunday, most of the posts complained about a lot of stress, and then the female part of the community decided to start a new flash mob. Now ladies are sharing photos of their boobs, claiming that viewing reduces stress.
Now people joke that the BBC will try to understand the Russians, and that the stress tolerance clause in the questionnaires can be removed.
The truest truth from 100% Russian, eyewitness and participant. Understand it.
If we’re speculating, is it notable how close to Kyiv Belarus is? Were they definitely nuclear weapons Putin has moved there? Are the Wagner fighters heading to Belarus too?
If this was all staged to distract from the real reasons for troop and munitions movements, then events wouldn’t need some other explaination, they’d make perfect sense to those in the know.
It’d be a good way to regroup and rally at a point closer to Kyiv, that would be an effective point from which to launch an attack on the capital.
I’ve no idea if this would be possible, or about troop numbers and capabilities etc. It’s just a thought that has been bothering me. Quite happy to have it put to bed….
P.S. Really sorry about DTRH Craig, b@st@rds…..
Will the real Prigozhin please stand up !
https://sonar21.com/prigozhin-will-the-real-slim-shady-please-stand-up/
Basically, I think the rest of the world has now cottoned-on to the UK right wing mantra of recent decades, “Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes fact”.
Apparently Putin has ‘real cracks’ in his regime. How do we know? Anthony Blinken says so. How does he know? He doesn’t. He is just making stuff up. Right wingers love it. Smash the commies.
Meanwhile the UK economy is grinding to a halt because our government has no money to allow public service workers a pay rise in line with greedflation. No money? I wonder where it has all gone?
U.K. government owns Bank of England it can therefore instruct the Bank of England to issue as much money as it wants , nobody in the world no organisation in the world can stop the U.K. government doing this.
The idea that there is no money is a lie , that’s what they do they lie , except when they need billions for war or billions for eat out to help out and other covid issues of money to Conservative supporters.
Conservative policy is to have as little government as possible they want everything privatised and I do mean everything , they also want strong laws so that those who try to disrupt this are punished , we are at present on the journey to very very small government assisted by very very strong laws .
In U.K. the conservative government have almost completed the demolition of council housing and mass mortgages that that her started , our current young adults cannot get mortgages because they don’t have the ten percent in savings that lenders insist on before issuing a mortgage and high interest rates are becoming too risky anyway .
Conservative government want us all to live in rented property , the owners of those properties don’t declare their rental income and the tax office don’t search for this abuse , it’s a cosy arrangement where the landlords vote conservative to continue getting their high rents untaxed.
NHS is well under way to being privatised the next conservative government will shut down the NHS in England and wales then battle with Scotland who will fight to retain their prized Scottish NHS.
Northern Ireland NHS is already on its knees like England and wales .
Next will be education , the conservatives want to privatise all state education but they first have to perfect a sneaky way of creating a private education system that will never compete with existing private education but will appear to perform well and be accepted by the masses, they have not perfected that as yet.
Transport is already trashed , we are at present seeing Jet2 Easyjet etc getting away with huge increases in fares for less choice , their reward for keeping it going during covid when they knew they were very high risk of not only spreading covid around U.K. but doing it across the world , not a care eh.
Terence you are so right.
However, I believe, it is now the BoE that controls the government. Let’s not forget it was the bankers who elected their man Rishi, not the electorate. And, yes I also totally blame the tories, especially Hunt, for the current chaos and corruption but ALL the other parties are 100% complicit and therefore equally to blame.
Agreed Terence most of our so called representatives have second homes they rent out.
Prigozhin is a businessman, not a military commander.
So how did the orders to send a convoy towards Moscow come about. I can only see that happening because the military command in Wagner ordered it. Which leads to the question why they would issue such an order.
Deception is always spoken about in battles. Scott Ritter seems convinced, to some degree or other, that Prigozhin has been turned. Is he in reality a double agent, that would be maskirovka with four aces in the flop.
One reason I suspect Prigozhin is in Belarus is to enable him to manage Wagner’s other commercial operations. I’ve seen no updates on how that side of the business is faring, or who is in charge….. Show me the money?
There is no way on this green earth why Prigozhin should be in one piece if his treasonous coup was for real. But what do I know…_
People are trying to understand one aspect of a multi faceted situation. All the sides recognised the saying “don’t let a good crisis go to waste”. One aspect of this is whether there was a crisis at all, and if some of the actors were being manipulated for other purposes. The major result is that Wagner is not independent anymore and is being integrated into the Russian military. Which was the aim all along.
Kaiama,
You will find that Wagner has not been integrated in to the Russian military. Those fighting in Ukraine have been offered roles in the Russian miltary, but the international operations can’t be. Wagner is a PMC, Private Military Company and has no official connections to the Russian state…_
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/18/russia-wagner-group-ukraine-paramilitary-00083553
I think you will find that regardless of the public PR about a PMC, it’s really the Russian MOD in control of things.
Russian mil-bloggers/propagandists have recently been giving all kinds of predictions for the Wagner’s future campaigns. Everything from Kherson to Belgorod to Kharkiv in fact. It’s just a thought, but could it be conceivable that the reason for this public spat was to manufacture an excuse to get Prigozhin and some rump of the Wagners into Belarus without arousing suspicion that the target in fact is Kiev ? And maybe Prigozhin himself has been offered the leadership of some future Ukrainian puppet state ?
@ David Johnson
“… but could it be conceivable that the reason for this public spat was to manufacture an excuse to get Prigozhin and some rump of the Wagners into Belarus without arousing suspicion that the target in fact is Kiev ?”
See the Youtube link in my 11:36 comment below.
The trouble with mercenaries.. If they think they can get something better out of any situation than what they are being offered right now, then they are off.
Begs the question: ‘what’s the difference between a politician and a mercenary ?’
Actually, begging the question is the logical fallacy of assuming the conclusion in the premise of an argument, instead of having the premise support it (Latin “petitio principii”).
“I do not buy the idea it was all a clever charade designed by Putin.”
Me neither, but this former CIA guy (new to me) makes a pretty good, plausible case for why it might be:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvXguRJb_ro
Both Scott Ritter and Andrei Martyanov, as of Saturday night, believe it was an attempted coup with western collusion and, they believe, with Britain in the forefront.
The Duran guys, Mercouris and Christoforou, lean to the notion that it was primarily a Prigozhin mental blow out over his feud with the military top brass.
Colonel Douglas MacGregor believes it was Prigozhin’s way of seeking to impress upon Putin that it is high past time they upped the ante in the conflict to bring it to a swift end, otherwise stalling could lead to dangerous unforeseen/foreseeable developments and adverse consequences.
The views of former MI6 officer Alastair Crooke and former US Lieutenant Colonel Daniel Davis will be most interesting and will appear live on the Judge Napolitano Youtube channel over the next couple of days.
If there is any possibility that Ritter and Martyanov are right, that the British were in the forefront of fomenting an attempted coup, potential Russian civil war and the overthrow of Putin, then questions must be asked in Parliament as to why Sunak recklessly sanctioned such an insane move and placed the country in great danger.
But which MP would have the spine? Not Starmer, who I expect would forbid Labour MPs from doing so on pain of losing the whip or expulsion from the party.
” If there is any possibility that Ritter and Martyanov are right, ”
Always a first time for everything.
Always a time for gift vouchers too Pears eh?
Pull yourself away from that mirror Pears.
You seem to have missed the point that they broadly agree with your ‘assessment’.
Sadly, not surprised to see that you respond so blithely to the possibility that Sunak is fully committed to the rest of Europe’s insanity and might be taking the UK to war, or accidently falling into war, with a nuclear superpower, albeit that we’re already engaged in a proxy one.
It would be helpful if we knew the distance travelled from say the Ukrainian border to the point where they turned around. While this might seem insignificant, it can provide an answer to what happened.
Prigozhin marched in tanks to a showdown with Shoigu, who is not a military man at all, but an official and bureaucrat. Leaving Rostov, Prigozhin summed up the results quite clearly – I finally energized them all up. This was an action by a military commander against what he considers ineffective war.
Against this background, the joyful reaction of Ukraine is bewildering. Do they seriously support Prigozhin’s claims to Shoigu that Shoigu is not effective enough to kill Ukrainians? Surreal.
Western media hurried to paint it as a “campaign against Putin” and look! their audience swallows it!
A certain infantilism of Western commentators and their audience never ceases to amaze me. In general, the level of some kind of teenage delight at the opportunity to see a real gun shooting, goes off scale. Did you watch Hollywood blockbusters too much? Or have you not played enough Counterstrike as a child?
Really, folks, you see an unshaven man in camouflage and with a machine gun and in your brain he snaps into the “hero” slot! A hero in your mind is a brave superman leaving the battlefield littered with dead bodies? And you say you don’t understand how a hero can be someone who used diplomacy and avoided battle. In your opinion, this is not bad, but still not heroic, so the feeling that you were deprived of the show? Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I’m noticing these puberty-radical outbursts here and there, people commenting on who was on top, who looked great, who looked lost, etc.
No, dear all, the task of an unshaven dude is to shed blood. If you don’t see your whole future as constant bloodshed, obviously you don’t see a leader in such a dude and don’t trust him to decide the future of the whole country.
By the way, this applies to both Prigozhin and Zelensky. So if Kiev voluntarily rejected the Minsk agreements and agreed to the role of a country-dude-in-khaki, then it automatically excluded itself from the number of dudes with whom it’s possible to talk about the future.
For those who are trying to understand the Russians, let me be a bit grandiose and say this:
this may be a popcorn show for you, but for me this is my life and I refuse to be your circus monkey for fun. No need to try to judge my actions based on your criteria of “heroism”. I don’t make money impressing the audience, I don’t charge them for saying dramatic words, for showing emotional pictures, and things like that.
Ask for this from Zelensky – he is a professional actor, well-paid, he will perform for you in the way you are able to understand, appreciate and pay again.
You have hit the nail on the head Tatyana. In the west we have been fed an unending diet of Hollywood blockbusters for decades – ever since WW2 ended in fact. Our version of war is where our troops just roll across the countryside at high speed, and shoot/demolish anything and everything is sight – or the air force do it for us.
Civilians do not exist in Western warfare, they are called collateral damage and as such they are just a statistic.
In addition to this, most macho men (which is about 90% of men in the west) are brought up with wall to wall shoot ’em up computer games for much of their waking hours (and many would prefer to continue 24/7 rather than sleep). In these ‘games’ the operator can shoot people dead at will, and if he (it is almost always he) gets ‘killed’, he just re-sets the game and starts again. No blood, no organs flying through the air, no funerals or endless sobbing.
Therefore, is it surprising when our Prime Minister struts about in front of cameras bragging about how many £billions worth of military hardware we are sending to our heroic allies, but never mentioning that the weapons are really just going to kill people with families, relatives, friends; whether military or civilian? To them, it is just another computer game for alpha males.
People ask if there are aliens out there in the cosmos watching earth? If they are, they will be disgusted at our neanderthal efforts in trying to live peacefully. They wouldn’t want to touch us humans with a bargepole.
War has always been glorified in the West, ever since wars began.
I like to think that the Earth is occasionally visited by aliens who check to see if we have stopped killing each other. When they find out we haven’t, they go away again.
Here is a joke, Bayard, Fat John, you may like 🙂
Aliens are coming to Earth. Delegations from different countries and religious leaders gather around and ask the aliens about their lives.
When the turn comes to the Pope, he asks:
“Do you know about the Savior and the Lord our God, Jesus Christ?”
“Ah, Jesus,” the alien replies. “Of course we know him. He visits us every year to make sure we’re all right.”
Surprised, the Pope exclaims: “Every year??? We’ve been waiting for his second coming for 2000 years!!!”
The alien sees that the Pope is getting angry and tries to calm him down: “Well, maybe he likes our chocolate more than yours.”
The Pope is amazed: “Chocolate? What do you mean?”
“Yes, chocolate. When he first visited our planet, we gave him a healthy box of chocolates. Wait, what did you do?”
Thanks for that Tatyana, that made me laugh.
Mr. Murray, this is maybe indirectly relates to the topic, I still ask you to pay attention to this publication, as it touches on something about the causes of the Ukrainian conflict, and in particular, the issue of Nazi ideology.
https://youtu.be/-rn0r7hr9zk?t=1143
starts at about 19:03
The Israeli ambassador to Ukraine Brodsky speaks in the vein that modern Ukraine, of course, glorifies the Nazis, who wanted to exterminate the Jews during World War II, but this does not affect Israel’s support for Ukraine.
It seems to me that Israeli officials are actually not as intolerant of Nazism as is commonly believed, and their position on anti-Semitism is somewhat exaggerated, and that anti-Semitism is actually weaponized to remove political opponents, as in the case of Mr. Corbyn or the recent accusations against Mr. Roger Waters.
Many Israelis started out as Ukrainian, just as Nuland and Freeland did. So, it’s no surprise that Israel, Canada and the USA tolerate Nazis – it’s in the (pure aryan) blood.
Does anyone know how far Wagner penetrated into Russia on this exercise? Penetrated as in how far from the Ukrainian border.
According to Wiki, Rupo, Wagner’s advanced column got fairly close to Moscow – around 450 kilometres from the Ukrainian border (as the crow flies):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wagner_Group_rebellion#/media/File:Wagner_Group_rebellion_2023.svg
A big thank you to everyone who replied to my question. It is important to establish as close as possible. I assume the answer to what occurred does not focus on 1 thing, it never does. The answer I assume sits with a German General after WW2 (small part) an unknown intelligence operative working on Ukraine before October 2016 and a meeting between the Russian President and the head of Russian intelligence in the presidential executive office. What happened should not have surprised anyone who claims to know Russia or who has been inside that system. So many are basing their debate on what they hear from second sources (be careful) and yet not one has provided a real explanation for what may have occurred. It is real and western agencies urgently want to know why. Sometimes…..Russia gets invaded.
They had a long way to go. They could have made it to the outskirts of Moscow (although there was talk of blowing the bridges on the Oka river – and I am not sure Wagner were carrying bridging equipment). Getting to the outskirts of Moscow and making it to the center are two different things. Recall how the Russian army made it to the outskirts of Kiev, but then were repeatedly ambushed. Also Wagner only seem to have had about 5-10 tanks which would not have gone very far. At some point there would have been serious opposition to their advance and while we westerners might be disappointed that this didn’t end in more violence it alas was not to be.
The bigger disappointments are still to come. Western leaders have managed to convince themselves and some of their audience that all the humiliations at the hands of flyweights – Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria – were anomalies.
Did not see this coming: Wagner to expand their role in Belarus? I assume Lukashenko will use Wagner in case of armed rebellion in his country.
In Belarus, they began to build camps to accommodate the fighters of PMC “Wagner” – reports “Layout ”
The publication confirmed the construction of a camp in Osipovichi, Mogilev region for 8,000 fighters.
According to them, there will be several camps.
https://t.me/intelslava/49404
Apparently I was wrong then, Wagner is not disbanded?
Prigozhin just appeared with his statement, explaining what had happened
In Telegram
https://t.me/concordgroup_official/1304
in VK
https://vk.com/video710381626_456239018
shortly in this article
https://www.topnews.ru/news_id_732149.html
According to Prigozhin, the Wagner PMC, as a result of intrigues, was supposed to cease to exist on July 1, 2023.
The number of those who signed a contract with the Ministry of Defense, as Sergei Shoigu demanded by his decree, according to him, is calculated by “two percent”. Most of the “musicians”, as Prigozhin assures, did not agree to sign a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry.
The head of the PMC explained the goals that he pursued by advancing with his fighters to Moscow.
“We went on a“ march of justice” to demonstrate protest, and not to overthrow the government in the country. The goal is to bring to justice those persons who made mistakes during the SVO,” the businessman said.
Prigozhin claims that not a single soldier was killed “on the ground” and expressed regret about the strikes against the aviation of the RF Armed Forces, which, according to him, “threw bombs and launched missile strikes.”
He explained his decision to stop the “march of justice” by his unwillingness to shed blood.
“When the first assault detachment approached Moscow, it became obvious that a lot of blood would be shed, so we felt that a demonstration of what we wanted to do was sufficient,” the businessman emphasized.
According to Prigozhin, on the way to Moscow, the Wagner fighters blocked and neutralized all military facilities.
“We walked 780 kilometers, which is 200 kilometers from Moscow. Among the fighters of the PMC, there are several wounded and two dead – among them are the military personnel of the Ministry of Defense who joined us. None of the PMC fighters was forced to march, and everyone knew his goal, ”he added.
As for the details of the negotiations with the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, according to Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Belarusian leader proposed a decision to continue Wagner PMC in legal jurisdiction on the territory of the republic.
“Our march showed a lot of the things that we talked about earlier – the most serious security problems throughout the country,” says the founder of Wagner.
He has no remorse for organizing the rebellion, Prigozhin added.
A more accurate and complete translation: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1673345844148314112
My understanding, gleaned from reading Bernhard H’s posts at his Moon of Alabama blog, is that Wagner soldiers will be signing contracts with the Russian Army and be included as units within the Army. This was the original policy put before Evgeny Prigozhin who was upset that he would lose a lucrative business to the Russian armed forces, and is a major part of the reason for his mutiny. He blamed Sergei Shoigu (Russian Defence Minister) and Valery Gerasimov (Chief of General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces and deputy minister of the Ministry of Defence) for this policy and they were the focus of his resentment and march towards Moscow.
(Why the Russian Army waited so long to offer the Wagner mercenaries regular contracts should be the mystery. Perhaps this was not high on the list of priorities cut out for the army during Russia’s current SMO and it only became urgent after Wagner mercenaries started taking casualties in large numbers or compared their pay and conditions with those of regular soldiers and found something lacking in their contracts with Wagner.)
Prigozhin might have negotiated something with the Russian Army and come away with some form of compensation, even if under the table. He could then have left Russia and set up a new mercenary army elsewhere in the world if he so wished.
Instead Prigozhin now has to go into exile in Belarus and may be subject to restrictions on his movements and communications. He might not even be allowed to leave Belarus for any reason whatsoever and his access to digital technology might similarly be proscribed. His companies are likely to be nationalised or dismantled and sold, and the assets of those companies may be nationalised or sold off as well.
However Prigozhin tries to sugar-coat or justify what he has done, other people might have one description for him over his behaviour and actions … a fool.
Here’s a picture of the Wagner boys executing their reign of terror during the “coup”.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/WaGNER-TROOPS.jpg
A picture doesn’t always need a thousand words.
And yet a single cherry picked picture can be a total lie.
Other pictures to paint a more balanced story:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1673052618656997377
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1672566774112591874
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1672738135615188993
“Other pictures to paint a more balanced story”
Well, if anything they support the “cherry picked” picture: first we have a picture of a downed plane, with nothing but the caption to link it the events of the weekend, then we have a picture of an explosion, ditto, which isn’t necessarily even an explosion of a missile or in Voronezh either, then we have a picture of someone firing a rifle in the air, which is hardly an act of aggression.
However, I’m sure if you look a bit harder, you will find a video of some guy in uniform beating up some guy not in uniform that you can claim is an example of the aggression you seek.
The picture of the downed IL-20 plane shows that this event was not free of violence. There are dozens of other similar pictures of this plane and 6 or 7 helicopters – all of these have been geolocated and both Wagner and Russian and western osint military bloggers all agree that these events happened. The final video was not intended to show an act of aggression, but rather to show the reality of ordinary citizens trying to get selfies with Prigozhin before he left town (that was the balance). There are again many other similar videos – such as people bringing food to the Wagnerites. (that is not say the majority of people in Rostov supported this action, but there were plenty who didn’t seem to think this was an outrage). The facts of what happened are well documented – the whys and what will happen next are less clear. Probably, Prigozhin’s own account of what happened and why is probably as close to the truth we will get (but remember he is a compulsive liar – so where evidence suggests he is lying he is lying).
“The picture of the downed IL-20 plane shows that this event was not free of violence. There are dozens of other similar pictures of this plane and 6 or 7 helicopters – all of these have been geolocated and both Wagner and Russian and western osint military bloggers all agree that these events happened.”
I am touched by your belief that information you find on the internet that supports your POV is the truth.
“Probably, Prigozhin’s own account of what happened and why is probably as close to the truth we will get (but remember he is a compulsive liar – so where evidence suggests he is lying he is lying).”
That’s a complete non-sequiteur. If Prigozhin is a liar, and there seems to be a lot of evidence that he is, then nothing he says can be trusted, it doesn’t mean you can cherry-pick the bits of his statements that you agree with and say the rest is lies.
Andrew, you promote wartranslated and you said you trust Dmitry. I don’t argue your choice of the source, you explained well enough that he filters out what you don’t wish to read. Just would be fair of you to add, he is not an independent blogger.
He is pro-Ukrainian, as he described himself at the Swiss Media Forum in Lucerne, where he was speaking together with Ukrainian ambassador.
I mean, he is not Estonian, he is half-Russian and half-Ukrainian, grew up in Estonia, then moved to the UK. His VK profile says “University of Aberdeen” and his resume says “Graduating: Aug 2017, MA in Politics and International Relations; University of Aberdeen, Scotland”
Also, he runs a website, where he publishes speeches of chief Ukrainian propagandist Arestovich, as well as of the lawyer Feigin – I know the latter name because he had issues with Sharij, an opposition Ukrainian blogger and politician. Feigin had to apologize in the end and that was made in quite a comical manner.
Dmitry also publishes translations of communications intercepted by the GUR, and I dare say that not every blogger has access to such materials.
Did it occur to you to ask if your trusted source of information works for some special services?
If you wish to argue with the accuracy of Dmitri’s translations – then you should argue that with him. However, you are not claiming the translation is poor, and this has not been argued by others. I fully understand the commentary that goes along with translations is Dmitri’s opinion – and pro-Ukrainian.
I don’t know if you know the story of the boy who called wolf or have ever watched an episode of Judge Judy. Basically anyone who lies once or makes false statements should not be trusted – every statement should be assumed to be a possible lie. In your case as far as I am concerned, you have repeatedly pushed a false narrative and whether this is because you lie intentionally or whether you accept Russian propaganda as true or whether you are incapable of rational thought or unable to discern when other people are telling the truth is neither here nor there. Also while the background of Dmitri is clear, your background is an unknown – or even if you are a single person. In any case the reason I am pointing to Dmiitri’s translations is for the benefit of people like me who don’t take anything you write at face value – it is just a second source for those with doubts – your translation is not necessarily any substantially different to that of Dmitri’s.
Btw dmitri has not translated the conversation between Arestovich and Feigin for months now. (I am not even sure if they are still doing this broadcast). The reason for cancelation being each translation takes several hours to do and this was not particularly interesting and rather repetitive. Translation understandably takes time – so it makes sense to pick things that are mostly likely to be of interest to a western pro-Ukraine audience – (and a lot of it is translations of the fascist Russian military bloggers, Wagner etc – people on the ground). Another good source of translations is https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki (mostly reports on plight of mobiks)
Some truth by Prizoghin:
⚬ The march revealed the great problems in the defense of the country. We showed the level of organization to which the Russian army should conform
⚬ We walked a distance equal to the distance from Kiev to Uzhgorod. If on February 24, 2022, the SSO had troops equal to Wagner in training, the special military operation would have been over in a day.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses/27865
Now Prigozhin looks like the General from Efremov’s Tale about Fedot the Arrcher 🙂
“Что вы, братцы? Я ж за вас
Потерял в атаке глаз!
Нешто я когда посмею
Супротив народных масс!”
No doubt he would have looked very heroic in the eyes of many. But what is his next plan? Well, imagine Prigozhin came to Kiev in a day, and then what? “Hey, Putin, we took Kiev, killed everyone along the way, let’s put your puppet on the throne, now Ukraine belongs to you” – or, what?
Compromise, sustainable peace, Istanbul agreements, neutrality pact, chance for reconciliation?
No less appropriate quote from the same piece of literature:
“Мне бы саблю да коня
да на линию огня,
а дворцовые интрижки –
енто все не про меня.”
And this is the reason why Prigozhin is in command of the military and Putin is the President of the Russian Federation.
Hi, Tatyana, could we have translations of the Russian, please?
Ah, of course.
In that setting the speeches of the characters are ‘folksy’, lexicon and the style are partially outdated. I’m afraid I cannot give an artistic translation, the meaning is:
“Brothers, how could you…? I’m for you
Lost an eye in the attack!
Would I ever dare to go
against the people’s will!”
“A sharp saber and a good horse,
and my way – to the front line.
And palace intrigues –
are not mine.”
By the way, my favorite phrase from there is
“Ты у нас такой дурак по субботам, или как?” – Are you such a fool on Saturdays only, or..?
It was the question that Tsar asked from the General, and the phrase, again, miraculously fits this situation 🙂
As well as the words of the General:
“Сознаю свою вину. Меру. Степень. Глубину. И прошу меня направить на текущую войну. Нет войны – я все приму: ссылку, каторгу, тюрьму. Но желательно в июле, и желательно в Крыму.” – I acknowledge my guilt: its measure, its degree and its depth. And I ask you to send me to the current war. If no war available, then I’ll accept any punishment: exile, hard labor, prison. But preferably in July, and preferably in the Crimea.
Plenty of “Saturday fools” on the internet, leading to Sunday disappointment when all their prognostications of the long-hoped-for collapse of the Russian state were proved to be false. I think this about sums it up: https://t.me/rocknrollgeopolitics/7474
There’s been a remarkable amount of projection on this subject: all those who would like to see Putin weakened have said that the events of the weekend have weakened Putin, all those who would not like to see Putin weakened have said that the events of the weekend have not weakened Putin, and so on for just about any scenario that any of the myriad commenters on the internet can come up with.
Tatyana, “And this is the reason why Prigozhin is in command of the military and Putin is the President of the Russian Federation”…
Prigozhin is the CEO of Wagner, not the military leader. As far as I can ascertain he’s never even been a Boy Scout and has zero military experience. Putin is as you say he is…_
Ok, let me put it in other words.
That is why I see Prigozhin recruiting convicts in prisons, when Putin is meeting other presidents in palaces; Prigozhin in camouflage riding a tank and Putin dressed in a suit and a tie signing contracts; Prigozhin posting something on Telegram and Putin addressing the nation on TV.
It seems that most of the milbloggers were unimpressed with Putin’s performance:
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1673462792450342912
Extra special critique from Igor Girkin (also more or less in the process of planning a coup, but pissed that Prigozhin got there first)
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1673458234563207171
max seddon also unimpressed
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1673412366136930323
“I’m not sure why Putin bothered to put this out, except for the fact Prigozhin made a big statement today that dominated headlines.”
“Amazing how Prigozhin is setting the agenda. Over Putin’s entire rule I can only recall Navalny doing that, or Chechen rebels if you go way back”
Andrew H
What should Russia have done? Initiate a civil war end up killing each other? The only criticism is the unpreparedness by Russia throughout this and the war in general.
Those you link to are hawks, do you want the hawks to gain power in Russia?
Jack, clearly I do not want the hawks to gain power. I also hardly think Prigozhin would make a good leader. (he is cut from the same cloth as Putin not to mention highly erratic). Arguing honestly has nothing to do with what I want. In this case, Putin’s speech didn’t deliver on anyone’s expectations – because it didn’t answer any questions or add clarity to the situation. In this regard, it is important to point out that the hawks are dissatisfied. People will be even more confused now that Putin has once again stated Prigozhin is a traitor, yet today he has apparently been allowed to leave his foxhole in occupied Ukraine (where he was trapped) and allowed to fly to Belarus.
Andrew H
You seems to agree with the hawks or again, tell me what should Russia have done about this event?
Jack, Russia should have prevented this from happening. It should have understood that Wagner were not going to sign these contracts. It should have negotiated to calm the situation – explained that those that didn’t want to sign could leave occupied Ukraine, go back to their families and would not be drafted into the army (they already did their part, and many presumably didn’t want to be sent to their deaths under an army they consider to be disorganized). It could also have suggested that Wagner could perhaps have its headquarters in Belarus so that the African mining operations could continue and Wagner no longer participating in the special operation would not be considered an act of disloyalty. (In Russia PMCs are illegal, but Belarus is more flexible). The current solution could have been reached without a lot of animosity from which it will be impossible to return.
Failing that, Russia should have fortified the road between occupied Ukraine and Rostov and also fortified the western military headquarters so that it could not just have been taken over by a few bandits.
Now that the event has happened its a much trickier situation. In some ways I think Luka did well to find a road that prevented a fight to the death between Wagner and the armed forces. On the other hand, I don’t think the current situation is stable. Luka is taking a pretty big risk inviting Wagner into Belarus (but the argument that he wants to modernize his army with the kind of training that Wagner can provide makes sense – and for the Wagnerites this will be safe and easy work), and Russia will be taking a pretty big risk leaving them there – Prigs will have to watch his back 24 hours a day.
Nothing is happening to them ‘for now’. Perhaps this was part of how the turnaround was sold?
The bank robber, the convict, the chef, the billionaire and private army warlord to traitor. Presidential rival to Putin….I don’t think so.
” I feel no closer to understanding what just happened”
“But I am struggling enormously to understand this”
Would that MSM commentators showed this much honesty!
Indeed, MSM made a fool of themselves once again. Sure no one knew what was going on but as usual: MSM just kept pushing 1 certain narrative.
Funny also how the alleged pro-Trump coup attempt in the US was condemned instantly but when some people trying to stage a coup with tanks in Russia a coup is apparently just fine by the same western MSM pundits…
I have stopped reading MSM almost completely, looking at them with a mix of contempt and pitiness how detached from reality they really are and what small minds they really have.
Garbage in, garbage out: Wagner mutiny again demonstrates that most pundits in media & social media regarding #Ukraine & Russia war are political hacks relying on ideology & partisan opinion & not on evidence & scholarly research. They would bear no consequences for their failure
https://twitter.com/I_Katchanovski/status/1672990992138477569
Or take this collage of MSM bs
https://twitter.com/Ramy_Sawma/status/1672887045641863170
In my personal judgement a fairly balanced and credible thought piece on what may have happened can be read at https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-the-wagner-uprising . Having considered a number of alternative explanations, the author considers it likely that the whole “uprising” was an effort by Prigozhin to save his lucrative Wagner project from being folded into the Russian army. While there thus could be consequences of this for Russia in the future, there would be few or no links to past Ukrainian happenings and tensions.
If I can add some factual data to this balanced thought piece: When Russia invaded Lugansk they were supporting the Lugansk republic. Wagner at that time was a mercenary army (set up after the Maidan coup in 2014) and was already involved in the fight. Wagner got its finance, weapons etc from the Lugansk republic. However, after the votes when Lugansk and Donetsk became Russian, it was no longer feasible for a mercenary army to function inside Russia. Finance and weapons now came from the Russian Ministry of Defence who had far more pockets to fill than previously Lugsansk had. Anyone following this over the last few years will have seen Prigozhin endlessly regaling the MofD about weapons. So the arrangement of Wagner fighting on Russian territory was a problem for both sides and it was clear that this was rising to a crescendo. A few weeks ago, it was agreed that Wagner would go to Belgorod (where the Ukrainians were attacking over the Russian border) where they could comfortably fight in the Kharkov oblast. Clearly Prigozhin didn’t like this. Now, Wagner have been shifted to Belorussia where they can continue their activities without hindrance and without threatening Russia, no doubt financed by Lukashenko.
> to save his lucrative Wagner project from being folded into the Russian army
That’s roughly what Prig has said. It’s also consistent with his increasingly strident complaints over the past few months.
I’m not inclined to go with evidence-free claims of UK involvement. I’m not inclined to believe US claims they knew this was going to happen. I’m not inclined to believe the story that somehow the mutiny had Putin’s support, that he was somehow in on the plot. All of that stuff is conspiraloon stuff.
The only thing I find odd is that Prig appears to have got off. Putin’s M.O. doesn’t include letting traitors off; people who turn on him usually fall from windows, or get shot outside the Kremlin walls, or succumb to some exotic poison only available in Russia. That is, he assassinates them, and leaves a calling card, like a Mafia hit.
There are plenty of Wagner troops in Belarus, and I assume they are loyal to Prig. They will not be signing Shoigu’s contracts. Prig pays them; Shoigu is unlikely to pay them. Wagner troops in Africa are even less likely to sign Shoigu’s contracts. Wagner isn’t going to disappear, unless Prig is terminated. So Prig needs to watch is 6.
“. I’m not inclined to believe the story that somehow the mutiny had Putin’s support, that he was somehow in on the plot. All of that stuff is conspiraloon stuff. The only thing I find odd is that Prig appears to have got off. ”
“Prig appears to have got off” -> “the mutiny had Putin’s support”. Mystery solved. But no,it can’t be, that’s “conspiraloon stuff”.
You don’t have to listen to the pundits to work this one out. Look at the language used by Putin when it started. He was talking full on treason on public TV. IMHO he was seriously concerned (and really angry).
Someone in Wagner shot down a few Russian helicopters, who were trying to impede their advance, killing the crews. So that was not just a protest as it is being portrayed now.
The guy Prigozhin is a bit unhinged IMHO. Someone I think was filling his head full of garbage about the support he would get. He has been used is my guess and fell for it. What a nut. And it was not a spur of the moment thing as he was lining it up for months in advance with all his ranting videos attacking the Russian MOD. People said at the time he had ‘political ambitions’. Well I think we can see now just how ambitious he was / is. The guy started believing his own press releases.
I have been trying to find the bizarre statements Prigozhin allegedly made right at the outset but can’t locate them. Ritter refers to them as well. If those statements have been accurately reported then it strongly suggests he had been turned. It was stuff related to the civilian casualties in the years from 2014 to the start of the ‘SMO’ plus other things… If he really said all that then I would say it is a certainty he was influenced from outside.
Overall if this was the work of an intelligence service I think it has been a success. No one (other than Prigrozhin it seems) expected a popular uprising against Putin to work. That was not the goal. This is destabilizing and it that regard I think it has been successful. I myself am still quite shocked by it. So I would expect that is strongly amplified across the Russian public as well. It has re-introduced real doubt. If Prigozhin was turned who else might be turned…
But it also possibly indicates that maybe the Ukrainians / West are running out of cards to play here.
My guess, based on looking at the type of people involved would be that Prigozhin had been operating Wagner for his financial benefit and also providing Putin a tool to use when the official Russian forces can not be used. Prigozhin became annoyed with the high number of deaths in his Wagner troops in Ukraine, for what he sees is no benefit for Russia or himself. Putin said well I am going to do what I want. Prigozhin moved his troops towards Moscow when he did not get agreement from Putin, which demonstrated what power he has and that he is prepared to take action. Putin then made an agreement with Prigozhin to make some changes in the future, but I dont know what. Hopefully these changes will be a de-escalation of action in Ukraine.
Not at all Terence it was a masterly response from President Putin to a UK plot designed with US dollar to create a conflict with serious casualties to somewhat cooperative mercenaries.