Ukraine (Date: Nov. 2023)


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  • #94682 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    A 2-part German summary of the peace talks in spring 2022, based on the various public statements available and on what we know by now:

    “The unwanted chance for peace in Istanbul in spring 2022 – Part 1”
    https://www-nachdenkseiten-de.translate.goog/?p=110970&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    “The unwanted chance for peace in Istanbul in spring 2022 – Part 2”
    https://www-nachdenkseiten-de.translate.goog/?p=111011&_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    #94696 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    AG,
    The ChatCPT bot suggests the summary for your part1 link:

    “The article provides a detailed analysis of the missed opportunities for peace negotiations in the Ukraine conflict, particularly focusing on the negotiations held in Istanbul in March 2022.
    It criticizes the role of Western intervention, particularly by the United States and Britain, in preventing a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
    The author argues that the historical context of the conflict, including the events leading up to the war in 2014, is often overlooked.
    It cites evidence suggesting that the US and NATO have been actively involved in supporting Ukraine against Russia, with the goal of weakening Russia’s position in the region.
    The article also highlights the role of former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett in attempting to mediate peace negotiations, but suggests that their efforts were hindered by Western interference.
    Overall, the article presents a critical perspective on the role of the West in perpetuating the conflict in Ukraine.”

    and for the second part:

    “The article criticizes historian Klaus Bachmann’s claims about the Ukraine conflict, providing evidence to counter his arguments.
    It refutes Bachmann’s assertion that Ukraine already had security guarantees, citing statements from Ukrainian negotiators in March 2022 proposing new guarantees.
    It also challenges Bachmann’s claim that Ukraine did not want to join NATO, citing historical evidence to the contrary.
    Furthermore, the article discusses the impact of NATO’s eastward expansion on Russian security concerns and emphasizes the importance of recognizing Russia’s perspective.
    It also critiques Bachmann’s view that a peace solution can only come through the collapse of a warring party, presenting alternative expert opinions advocating for negotiated settlements.
    Overall, the article offers a concise analysis of the Ukraine conflict, challenging Bachmann’s assertions and providing alternative viewpoints on the path to peace.”


    Nice tool to both translate and shorten the text. I find it very useful. Great help.

    #94702 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    Putin’s interview with Carlson got more than 200 million views on Twitter
    https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1755734526678925682

    I thought that someone might be interested in knowing Putin’s impressions of this. He talked to Zarubin.
    Video and Russian transcript here
    http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73457

    (By the way, the Russian IT company Yandex has a voice-over translating service for any video from open sources, such as YouTube or Vimeo. Perhaps your country also has similar online services. As we are on the Internet, so why not use what they invent for us?)
    I’ll translate and shorten this via ChatGPT.
    https://chat.openai.com

    “P. Zarubin asks V. Putin about the reaction of Western leaders to his interview with Tucker Carlson, where they discussed the special operation in Ukraine.
    Putin disagrees with the distortion of his words, stating he did not talk about a possible NATO attack.
    He explains that the main reason for the operation* was the violation of the Minsk agreements and attacks on Donbass.
    Putin regrets not starting actions earlier due to trust in Western leaders.”

    __________

    ( * actually Putin used ‘trigger event’. )

    “P. Zarubin asks Putin about criticism of Tucker Carlson’s interview and the possibility of sanctions or arrest for Carlson.
    Putin denies intimidating Carlson and discusses Carlson’s approach, suggesting judgment should be left to viewers.
    Regarding sanctions, Putin mentions Assange but notes anything is possible in today’s America.
    As for a follow-up conversation, Putin says Carlson stuck to his plan.
    Putin also comments on Blinken’s public statements regarding his ancestors fleeing Russia, suggesting they could lead to embarrassment.”

    __________

    ( *Interestingly, Blinken said his grandfather fled Russia, escaping from Pogroms, as he was a Jew. Putin said they have archives: Blinken’s relative was born in Poltava and then moved to Kiev. This is embarrassing, because either those were Ukrainian Pogroms, or Kiev is Russia. One cannot have both true at the same time. Also, Blinken’s relative moved to USA before the first recorded Pogrom happened. )

    “P. Zarubin raises concerns about German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock’s grandfather’s Nazi past* and its implications for Germany’s political landscape.
    Putin comments on historical events like pogroms, highlighting resistance efforts. He also criticizes the exploitation of climate fears by European politicians, like Berbock, for their own agenda despite increased coal usage in Germany.
    Putin criticizes German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock for her hostile stance towards Russia and what he sees as neglect of Germany’s economic interests.
    He believes it’s unfair to blame today’s Germans for Nazi-era actions and proposes global grassroots efforts against supremacist ideologies.”

    __________

    ( *There was a publication in the Bild about Frau Baerbock’s grandfather
    https://www.bild.de/bild-plus/politik/inland/politik-inland/dokumente-aufgetaucht-baerbock-ich-wusste-nichts-mein-opa-und-die-nazis-87090146.bild.html )

    “P. Zarubin notes EU’s concern over a possible return of Trump as US President, emphasizing Trump’s demand for NATO allies to increase defense spending or pay for protection.
    Putin sees Trump as nonconformist, citing his past decisions like exiting the Kyoto Protocol.
    He questions the relevance of NATO, viewing it as a tool of US foreign policy.”

    “P. Zarubin revisits Putin’s interview with Tucker Carlson, highlighting Arakhamiya’s admission that Johnson urged Kiev to fight instead of negotiate with Moscow. Putin believes Western, particularly Anglo-Saxon, influence drove this stance, with Johnson likely acting on US consultations. He reiterates that politics is the art of compromise, suggesting adjustments when strategies fail.”

    #94730 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    admittedly less thrilling than Putin, but I still post it as diligent “documentarist”:

    “The war in Ukraine could come to an unexpected end”

    by Michael von Schulenburg, frm OSCE & UN, one of the few sane German diplomats.

    (it´s not all new in its substance but it´s important as a reminder and stating the dangers. Interesting item: A peace settlement could mean “without US/NATO approval”.)

    He wrote the only major peace plan proposal on UKR, posted here back in fall 2023 I think.
    Even acknowledged so by Nicolai Petro sitting far off in the US.

    https://www-telepolis-de.translate.goog/features/So-koennte-der-Krieg-in-der-Ukraine-zu-einem-unerwarteten-Ende-kommen-9626686.html?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    #94731 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    one of the mistakes by the RU government:

    “Anti-War Socialist Boris Kagarlitsky Sentenced To Five Years’ Jail”
    https://znetwork.org/znetarticle/anti-war-socialist-boris-kagarlitsky-sentenced-to-five-years-jail/

    “Amnesty International’s director for Russia, Natalia Zviagina, said the verdict “is a blatant abuse of vague anti-terrorism legislation, weaponised to suppress dissent and punish a government critic.

    “By targeting Boris Kagarlitsky, a distinguished sociologist known for his critical stance against government policies, the Russian authorities are showing, once again, their relentless assault on all forms of dissent.

    “This conviction, and the closed nature of his trial, provide another stark example of the treatment of political dissenters in Russia. It is an overt attack on freedom of expression with the aim of silencing critical voices through fear and repression.

    “This case is not an isolated incident but part of a broader, systematic effort to stifle opposition and control what can and cannot be said in Russia.”

    #94732 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    I don’t think Russia has a monopoly on vague anti-terrorism legislation. Indeed, it seems to be the current trend – to which I’m sure Craig Murray, Kit Klarenberg and others can attest. That such is the case doesn’t make abuse of anti-terrorism legislation anywhere any more legitimate or welcome. It will diminish the concept of actual terrorism in the mindset of all. The rush to control narrative everywhere has created a monster.

    #94734 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    I haven’t seen the actual content for which Kagarlitsky was accused, but here’s what I think:

    • giving the title “Explosive Congratulations” to content about the explosion on the Crimean Bridge, this perhaps quite constitutes a justification for terrorism
    • the initial court decision to fine 600 thousand rubles and release was quite enough
    • calling Kagarlitsky a dissident and oppositionist is a lie. At the trial, he said that he not only never supported terrorism, but also visited Crimea, interviewed residents and came to the conclusion that the majority of the population approved of unification with Russia. He also interacted with trade unions, and he did his job using presidential grant money! So I think the definition of “political dissident” was invented for the sake of stirring up emotions.
    #94767 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    Am I the only one worried about this Navalny shit show? Don´t tell me this is a coincidence: The Munich Security Conference, the chaos in Kiev, at the same time testing public reaction on WMDs for Europe, and now this guy dead?
    Couldn´t be less obvious MI-6 and friends.
    No idea what nonsense German parliament will cook up now. And the stupidity in the media will be reaching new heights of racism.
    These are so cool times we live in…

    #94774 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    AG,
    I’m afraid you may find yourself to be the only one worried about it. I’ve checked my favourite Russian social media, and found some postings about Navalny. Mostly memes and old videos. Also some questionnaires with results that are far from impressive. Comments are mostly like ‘ I don’t give a f*ck’, and ‘Max died’*
    Popular Russian saying *’помер дед Максим, да и хрен с ним‘ – ‘grandfather Maxim is dead, no regret’.

    Navalny’s wife happened to attend Munich security conference today, accidentally. She gave a speech asking to bring the end to Putin and all that usual blablabla.
    I expect Biden to give a dramatic speech, too. Most probably Scholz and Macron will do the same as they signed security guarantee treaty with Ukraine today.

    #94791 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    TATYANA

    Yes I assumed so (re: RU). Why should they care.
    In fact I only meant the jingoist German/West-European political/academic/media “elites”.
    Those people who once were called “critical public”.
    (Many of whom used to be part of the peace movement.)
    Well, as you see, I am only repeating myself.

    But the timing in regards of everything else is just too troubling.

    (The Duran had a decent show on it yesterday. Christoforou unusually skeptical. Which I liked.)
    https://theduran.com/alexey-navalny-dies-in-prison/

    This German tabloid on the “dark” Navalny, 2020, a bit like Atlantic Council´s honesty ca. 2018 about Nazis in Kiev.

    “Racist, right-wing extremist, homophobic?: Navalny: The dark sides of the “Kremlin critic”
    https://archive.is/LgG92

    This part of his “past” has to be saved for memory. Especially in the FRG.

    p.s. the Communists in RU didn´t receive a fraction of the Western media attention despite being the only meaningful opposition.

    #94796 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    A glimpse of some reactions in Ireland related to the Putin interview from Lara Marlowe (Wikipedia).
    Interestingly she was formerly married to the late Robert Fisk (Wikipedia).
    She apparently took exception to the use of the adjective “controversial” in his obituaries, saying “he was a prolific non-conformist in the world of journalism, whose judgments avoided jumping on the bandwagon” and, in her experience, had been “intuitive, rapid […] and invariably right”.

    It’s a shame she didn’t take some inspiration from him before writing this piece suggesting Trump is a Putin asset.

    Every word of this piece is a sneer. Every point designed to ridicule. Propaganda at its finest. Lara, your ex is turning in his grave.

    #94803 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    oooops
    (but she is not the only one, alas)

    #94804 Reply
    Jack
    Guest

    ET

    Disgraceful comment by her, and should not Biden be considered a Putin puppet now according to the russia-phobics?

    <i>Putin says Biden is better for Russia than a Trump presidency</i>
    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-says-biden-better-russia-trump-presidency-rcna138942

    #94805 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    As far as I can trust my own feelings, Putin had to squeeze out of his mouth a few decent words about Biden. In general, he commented on some of the awkward situations, saying that “anyone of us who hasn’t hit their head sometimes should be the first to throw a stone at Biden.”
    I also share his preference for Biden over Trump, because Biden is truly predictable and truly a public servant first and foremost. Trump, on the other hand, is inconsistent, he just wants to please everyone and therefore makes decisions out of his over-inflated ego. Biden, however bad he is, still represents the US. Trump, however charismatic he is, represents himself.

    #94807 Reply
    Michael Norton
    Guest

    Avdeyevka has almost collapsed to the R.U. The new armed forces leader has withdran his troops to regroup further back.
    At the same time conference going on in Germany, attended by the wife of Navalny.

    #94808 Reply
    Michael Norton
    Guest

    The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2024 will take place from February 16 to 18, 2024, at the Hotel Bayerischer Hof in Munich, Germany.
    https://www.google.com/search?q=the+Munich+security+conference&rlz=1C1CHBD_en-GBGB790GB790&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
    This might be a turning point in the war.
    Ukraine withdrawing troops before they are captured.

    #94811 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    2 x from Natylie Baldwin´s excellent blog:

    “Alexey Navalny Dies in Russian Prison”
    EURONEWS (3 short reader commentaries)
    https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/02/alexey-navalny-dies-in-russian-prison/#comments

    But way more interesting (I have yet to read it sincerely):

    “David C. Hendrickson: Reconstructing the Istanbul Accords”
    Hendrickson argues AGAINST the Istanbul Accords:
    https://natyliesbaldwin.com/2024/02/david-c-hendrickson-reconstructing-the-istanbul-accords/

    #94844 Reply
    michael norton
    Guest

    It would seem that the president of Ukraine is very angry with his troops giving up in Avdeyevka
    he is going to put the officer class on trial.

    #94845 Reply
    michael norton
    Guest

    If he does put the fighting men on trial, this will make him, even less popular.
    I think it is soon to be game over for Volodymyr Zelensky .

    #94847 Reply
    michael norton
    Guest

    Demographically Ukraine is quite weak.
    Wiki says a population of thirty three and a quarter million, however they lost the population of Crimea, pop. two and a half million, in 2014. Probably five million in the four states, that Russia has recently absorbed.
    Ten million have fled Ukraine, with some choosing to go to Russia.
    Half a million dead from this recent war.
    That would take the population remaining under the control of Volodymyr Zelensky
    at less than sixteen million.
    Quite a few of those remaining people will be old and no longer economically active.

    If nothing else, they almost certainly do not have enough people left to run the rump Ukraine without outside money, going on for many years.
    The longer this conflict goea on, the worse will be their chances of keeping anything viable.

    #94849 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    Hajo Funke, one of the 3 academics who devised the only serious peace plan last year, with a comment in BERLINER ZEITUNG

    “Hajo Funke: A political solution to the Ukraine war is overdue
    Secret peace negotiations were sabotaged. Has the hope for peace in Ukraine been dashed? The responsibility also lies in the West. A guest post.”
    2/20/24

    https://archive.is/HhiZB

    #94875 Reply
    michael norton
    Guest

    “The United States Department of State”
    estimated that at least 900,000 Ukrainian citizens have been forcibly relocated to Russia.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_refugee_crisis_(2022%E2%80%93present)#:~:text=Over%206%20million%20refugees%20fleeing,in%20Ukraine%20by%2020%20March.

    I wonder how many people, who once considered themselves citizens of Ukraine, now consider themselves citizens of Russia?
    It must be many millions. Over two million, just in Crimea. I expect many, maybe most of those working age people now in Russia are working? Presumably they would have to have national insurance numbers?

    #94878 Reply
    Jack
    Guest

    Only 10% of EU citizens believe Ukraine can win – poll

    While twice as many (20%) expect Russia to emerge victorious, the prevailing opinion – shared by 37% of respondents – was that the conflict would end with some form of compromise settlement.

    https://swentr.site/news/592896-europeans-ukraine-loss-poll/

    Still there are only like 1 state (Hungary) that have said just this repeatedly.
    How long will it take for the rest of the EU to come to terms with the reality of things? What will it take?
    Absurd also how little opposition there is to send billions of dollars in aid/weapons to Ukraine, taxpayers money funding war in a conflict that cannot be won and to a nation that is so horrendously corrupt.

    #94883 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    News come from Belorussia.
    NATO has now 32 thousand military near Belorussian border, along with armored vehicles, artillery and aircraft.
    Ukraine keeps large group of about 112 thousand military near the Belarusian border. Compared to the usual border security system, which consists of about 17 thousand troops, this looks like a strike force.

    Anyone else think NATO is about to strike? I find this extremely probable, since Russia and Belarus form a union state, and if all these forces go to break through the border, then Russia should distract itself from military operations on the Ukrainian battle line and come to the aid of its ally.
    And I have no doubt that Japan would immediately rush to take the Kuril Islands – this was exactly the case during Hitler’s attack.

    #94896 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    News from Germany
    The Bundestag voted today. 382 out of 668 deputies were in favor of the resolution, 284 were against it, and two more members abstained.
    The approved draft resolution contains a call from coalition factions for the government to begin supplying long-range weapons systems to Ukraine, which will be used to destroy strategic targets in the Russian rear zone.

    Looks like it’s time for me to radicalise myself. Gonna scratch my soul looking for hatred, as we are on the very eve of great war and I need to abandon all this humanity and peace-loving attitudes. Pacifists die first, I believe.

    #94897 Reply
    XX
    Guest

    WW3 has started Kiss your ass good bi darlin

    #94900 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    🙂 I didn’t expect that someone may wish to kiss my ass 🙂

    More news comes from the Transnistrian Republic. They convene a congress of all deputies, there are rumors that they may make a proposal to admit them to the Russian Federation.

    #94901 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    Could only find this related to the vote.
    They voted for “necessary long-range weapons systems” whatever that means. How will Germany define necessary. There is a lot of wiggle room in that phrasing.

    #94903 Reply
    Tatyana
    Guest

    ET
    Russian news reported on the vote, and they linked Germany parliament website

    https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw08-de-ukraine-988604

    There was also some sort of explanation. They voted against the previous project with Taurus missiles. Likely, they intend to give Taurus to Britain and get Storm Shadows instead. That is, Germans excluded from the document the exact name of the weapons.

    #94904 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    I guess Tatyana I was thinking that to include the qualification “necessary” in the bill means it’s entirely a decision for the German government. What are the criteria against which necessity is judged? They could equally determine necessary very loosely and have a low bar to provide weapons or make the criteria so onerous that they are never met. Or anywhere in-between and entirely on inaccessible to the public and undefined criteria.

    #94906 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    TATYANA

    I would consider these NATO moves just “as operational movements” for their provocative maneuvers that will be carried out for 4 months.
    But that simulation of an attack is already risk enough. No need for the real thing. I guess NATO for now sees it the same way. It´s like a sick game for them…

    The bigger issue in the direction you are suggesting is the possible delivery of advanced ATAMCS and TAURUS (be it in 3 months or 1 year) and eventual arrival of F-16s.

    None of these pose a military danger.
    But as Mark Sleboda asks: what comes then? (12 min. long)l
    https://marksleboda.substack.com/p/desperate-western-moves-to-send-new

    Since all of this is turning up the heat on the European public in order to make it get used to permanent conflict.
    That´s the essence of it. Dancing on the brink of a volcano. Make the people submissive by inventing a horror fairy-tale.

    For that end you don´t even need a major war.

    #94907 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    I will only work with “pro-European, pro-Nato, pro-Ukrainian, clear supporters of our democratic values” says Ursula von der Leyen.

    What about neutrality for Ireland? Shamefully, the current Irish government, despite their relatively strong stance for Palestine, states they will support her for president of the EU commission.

    Why does this woman command such media coverage? The EU commission president role is a civil service role not an executive role. She is not the president of the united states of the European Union.

    #94908 Reply
    ET
    Guest

    I guess I should correct my statement above that “the EU commission president role is a civil service role not an executive role.” That reflects what I think the role should be. It is in fact an executive role. The Wikipedia page on the President of the European Commission is worth a read.

    Ursula von der Leyen and her political abuse of her role is becoming far too synonymous with the EU. The member states and the EU council, as well as the EU parliament need to put her and the role in their place. That place being stfu and do what we say you can do.

    #94909 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    ET
    The Commission is a force equipped with personnel by EU governments not their parliaments.
    And the Commission holds the true power in contrast to the EU Parliament.
    Eventually Leyen is just a clone.
    She is a representative of FRG´s propertied class.

    I wonder in how far those groups in the EU who attempted to create an (imperialist) EU in critical distance to the US are active still today?

    At some point something fundamental must have changed. Enough experts in the massive EU apparatus are aware of the advantage of a EU allied with RU.
    How was that thwarted? How did they loose that struggle?

    #94910 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    UKR War as a gift to the US MIC:

    “Biden wants to put the US on permanent war footing
    The new ‘defense industrial strategy’ is a boon for the arms makers, not so much for regular Americans.”
    https://responsiblestatecraft.org/biden-war-strategy/

    WASHINGTON POST
    “What the Pentagon has learned from two years of war in Ukraine
    With hundreds of thousands dead or wounded and still no end in sight, the conflict has revealed that U.S. battlefield calculations must evolve”
    https://archive.is/GlPSq#selection-1109.420-1109.422

    #94911 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    75 min. with Vijay Prashad and Brian Becker

    Excellent because Prashad compares various conflicts with the West´s double standard re: UKR
    (e.g. Tahrir and Maidan)

    “Why U.S. is Pushing “Long War” Strategy in Ukraine War”
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL48QbnbCJw

    #94912 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    TATYANA

    Regarding your earlier post on Poland and WMDs – my inquiry was answered:

    No WMDs in Poland and nothing planned as of now. But we may expect an increasing involvement in conventional support for US/NATO nuclear operations.

    #94914 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    interesting piece by Yves Smith at naked capitalism on WSJ´s reporting about oil sanctions:
    “WSJ Misinforms by Omission in Article on Oil Sanctions-Buster by Ignoring Dollars and SWIFT”
    https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2024/02/wsj-misinforms-by-omission-in-article-on-oil-sanctions-buster-by-getting-lost-in-weeds.html

    #94915 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    As I hinted at above long-term commitments of Germany pose the real problem.

    A idea of what I mean is here on Anti-Spiegel, popular among Germans who hate the entire MSM and are less patient than me.

    (I often side-lined Anti-Spiegel, may be unfairly so, but to call your site “Anti-Guardian” is a reason to not read a site since it lacks stylistic independence. Do I have to identify my work via opposition to another medium?)

    anyhow, more important:

    “The CDU’s call for war against Russia
    Three motions relating to the Ukraine conflict were voted on in the German Bundestag today. Anyone who thinks that the federal government is already radically anti-Russian has not yet seen the CDU/CSU proposal, which gives a foretaste of what lies ahead under Chancellor Merz.”

    https://www-anti–spiegel-ru.translate.goog/2024/der-aufruf-der-cdu-zum-krieg-gegen-russland/?_x_tr_sl=auto&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=de&_x_tr_pto=wapp

    #94916 Reply
    AG
    Guest

    And same topic with broader perspective, Germna-Foreign-Policy-Blog:

    ““Russia has to lose”
    Bundestag calls for Ukraine’s victory over Russia, while Kiev suffers severe military setbacks. Berlin involves civil society in war preparations. Unions slow down resistance.”

    https://archive.is/1XhqR

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