The Fringe Meeting at which I am speaking will be livestreamed on Saturday from 12.30 on IndependenceLive.
Meanwhile, Emily has started her own blog.
I had a busy day today moving a lot of stuff to move into my new home in Edinburgh tomorrow. But I must briefly comment on a fascinating opinion poll by IPSOS/Mori tonight, which puts the Tories on 32 and Labour on 29 UK wide – and astonishingly the Lib Dems UK score of 9% only just ahead of the SNP’s UK wide score of 8%, even though the latter is concentrated entirely in Scotland. One reason that SNP figure is so high is that IPSOS MORI weight by certainty to vote, and are predicting a much higher turnout in Scotland than England at the next election.
The scenario leading straight to independence – a Tory/UKIP coalition at Westminster and a crushing SNP victory in Scotland – is looking increasingly probable. One thing I do not rule out at all is a unionist Con/Lab coalition in Westminster after the next general election. There are almost no real policy differences between them, and if coalition becomes the swiftest way to satisfy personal ambition for power and money on both sides (the only thing that drives both parties), I so not think it is in the least improbable. We have seen Lab/Con coalitions against the SNP in Dundee and Stirling Councils, and they were extremely happy together during the referendum campaign. I do not yet see a Lab/Con coalition as the most probable outcome of the next Westminster election. But it is entirely possible.
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/events/3589902/videos/68194661
Speech at 13 mins 30 secs in
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/events/3589902/videos/68196705
http://new.livestream.com/IndependenceLive/events/3589902/videos/68197880
Interview at 9 mins 30 secs in.
Oh God.
I hope you’re wrong.
But your analysis is spot on as always.
“One thing I do not rule out at all is a unionist Con/Lab coalition in Westminster after the next general election.”
________________
Precedent : the German grand coalitions (CDU/CSU – SPD).
Or, for that matter, the more or less permanent Swiss and Belgian coalitions.
Can Scots save the world?
Every week, but that was Star Trek.
What if, The SNP holds the balance of power- which, If you extrapolate is entirely possible- if not probable?
Lance
That could be one of the reasons (or the pretext, if you will) for a Grand Coalition.
Also, I wouldn’t get too concerned about any kind of UKIP surge. Their vote is nowhere near concentrated enough to cause any real impact on the outcome of the next GE. 2 maybe 3 token seats at best.
UKIP appeal to Bandwagonesque, pub loudmouths- there does seem to be a growing number of these knuckleheads in circulation, I’ll grant you- in fact there could a factory churning them out somewhere. However, nowhere near the numbers needed to influence the outcome in 2015.
The UKIP “threat” has been completely overstated by the rabidly right wing press in this country, with the wretched, poison and totally immoral hand of Crosby at the controls.
Habbabkuk:
Still can’t see it. Labour ( stifled laugh) would be almost certainly implode- the party more or less extinct after such a pact. Neither of the current identikit Labour balloons would have the balls for such a move.
I think if anything that would play straight into the Indy movements hands.
I was hoping that Craig’s recent incisive piece about Israel marked a return to blogging form after his tiresome Scottish separatist period.
But recent posts and his move to Edinburgh have dashed those hopes.
I’m very sad to have to conclude that Craig has turned into an idiotic, parochial, self-aggrandising arse.
I shan’t bother reading this blog again, and I will stop recommending it to others.
Bye.
I think in 2015 I’ll vote Green, you generally find they are decent human beings with ethics, conviction and seek office to effect change as opposed to enriching themselves. In fact, their polling shows a rise to 7%- good news, heart warming even. Funny how The Guardian never mentioned it- probably because they’re closing the gap on Clegg and his band of corporate arse kissers!!
@Habb The Swiss political coalition is usually rotating/shifting chairs & hats along family lines, but they do run a fairly efficient country (I’ve written to the president a few times to get things done)
Belgium however get their MPs elected then chat about their coalition options for years (OK, 100 days), only finally deciding once the country is (almost) sold on eBay! http://i.usatoday.net/news/_photos/2007/09/19/belgiumx-large.jpg
on the UK 2015 coalition, I think Oxford will slightly outweigh Cambridge, tho there might be a few St. Andrews in the final cabinet
Cheers for the Tip Craig. have a great time/ talk in Perth.
there are some activists who want to be there for the SNP conference finishing to show thanks and Appreciation to Alex…i told them about your talk there
some of what they are hoping to do –
Post by Tony Charlton :
“hi there, is there a place where SNP/YES voter’s can meet before the meeting in Perth on Saturday ?That way we could all go together or line the route where Alex Salmond drive’s home,”
P.S Kool Blog by Emily…lovin the Native American Thread…Chief Joseph of the Nez Perce Nation, is my Hero – ” From where the sun Now Stands, i shall fight no more Forever “
I dunno, I struggle to see the Tory/UKIP outcome. Let’s assume the Tories win the most seats again, but fall short of an outright majority.
In scenario 1, they are just shy of an outright majority. Then the only situation where they partner with UKIP is if the latter has significantly more seats than the Ulster Unionists (who would be a preferable coalition partner). Minimum 10 seats for UKIP, probably need nearer 20.
In scenario 2, the Tories are well shy of an outright majority, then it has to be the Lib Dems again (assuming they hold onto 30-40 seats).
For UKIP to pick up 10-20 seats, you imagine those seats are all Tory losses. So the better UKIP does, the more you head toward Scenario 2, and the more likely we get a Tory-Libdem repeat.
So I just don’t really see the electoral math that leads to a Tory-UKIP coalition. You’d almost need UKIP to overtake the Lib Dems, and even if Clegg deserves that, I’m struggling to see it happen.
A more Eurosceptic Tory party, however, that I can certainly foresee.
” but that was Star Trek.”
Next Generation or Next/Next Generation? Maybe Dr Who?
The Ipsos-MORI poll has been roundly condemned by comenters on the yougov website. Latest figures from yougov out tonight show Lab 35%, Con £2%, UKIP 15%, Libdem 7% Greens 6%. No mention of SNP.
I don’t believe a Lab/Con coalition, whatever the situation. It would destroy the Labour Party. Con/UKIP I could believe, or Con/Libdem again, but not Con/Lab. The possibility is a Scottish point of view.
WTF –
Cancel their plans to go ahead and demolish the Glasgow Royal Concert Hall steps, and replace them with a glass atrium.
Why is this important?
-The steps are an iconic place. They have been used extensively by demonstrators. For instance, in the run up to the Scottish Independence Referendum, the steps were widely used by both “Yes” and “No thanks” campaigners.
-The steps are popular. Many people use them as a place to sit, eat their lunch, socialise and listen to buskers.
-There aren’t many places in Glasgow City Centre to sit. Apart from George Square, there really isn’t anywhere you can sit.
-The steps provide excellent views over Buchanan Street and beyond. These views are captured by local photographers and artists.
Petition on 38degrees –
https://you.38degrees.org.uk/petitions/save-the-steps?bucket&source=facebook-share-button&time=1415630239
@YouKnowMyName
I hear what you say about Switzerland and Belgium, but the point remains that coalitions are a permanent feature of the political landscape there. Actually the Belgian and German examples are particularly interesting on demonstrating (as I think Craig has speculated) that almost anything is possible in terms of the shifts that can occur in the formation of coalitions. The new Belgian govt is now what they call the “Swedish coalition” (this refers of course to the previous Swedish govt and not the new one), ie, a centre-right coalition (ie, no Socialists) as opposed to the previous ones which were centre-left (ie including Socialists) or so-called “rainbow” coalitions. The German example has seen centre-right coalitions (CDU/CSU-FDP), followed by centre-lefts and Grand Coalitions.
@ Ed, Lance, etc
The rise of UKIP and the SNP (likely) and the Greens (perhaps) makes me wonder whether the future might not see a re-alignment, whether permanent or temporary, of political forces along axes different from the “traditional” ones of right (Tories), centre (Liberals) and left (Labour), all the more so if it is correct that the differences between the traditional parties are (or at least are perceived as being) almost nugatory. Such new axes – especially if temporary – would tend, I think, to be likely to arise out of single issues with wide ramifications – one example of which could conceivably be the EU.
Republicofscotland – any thoughts? Feel free to join in.
Or independence for Scotland (you could have the Union Party and the Freedom Party..)
Even if there was a Tory/UKIP coalition at Westminster and an SNP victory in Scotland I don’t see how that would lead straight to independence. It might lead to yet more fervid blogging from Craig but that’s not quite the same thing.
Very correct analysis, Mr Murray. And I hope yer flittin goes well.
I think we should understand that our country and its people are under the most insidious attack from the Westminster (Blue/Red) Tories. It is my personal belief that it is time to start declaring UDI in small ways, like the way our surfers did in Peru. I do not mean in any legal, sovereignty move. I just mean small things like writing “Scotland” on the front of your passport, running up a Scottish flag on any old building you see standing vacant, using rather more Scots words than you would normally use, organising a “Great Scottish Bake-Off” at your next WI meeting… substituting “Scottish” for “British” wherever it is used innocuously.
Also, something which will especially stick in the throats of the more xenophobic Purple Tories, always highlight the European Union, the fact that Scotland has always looked to Europe (and vice versa), I can see a market for flags with Scotland in the centre and the EU stars surrounding “Ecosse”…
The main thing is to declare independence inside yourself and to get other people, especially no voters, thinking along the same lines… Evolution not revolution, indy not WM devolution…
Funny you should raise the possibility of a Tory Labour coalition.
I was thinking the same thing last week. With UKIP and the SNP likely to get a significant number of seats then a coalition is on the cards.
Tory SNP – no chance.
Lab SNP – not likely. Lab just hate the SNP too much.
Tory Lab – looks distinctly possible. For the good of the country of course. Keeps the Nats at bay.
The national unity agreement that led to Kurdistan taking over Kirkuk’s oil from Baghdad, thanks to IS invasion of Mosul, included all the political parties in Kurdistan + all of the representatives of USUKIS + Jordan + all the Kurdish Islamic group.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article185861.html
Nobody who has a municipal job in Kurdistan has been paid for 9 months. There has recently been a return of power cuts, no gas for baking or cooking. No forests to collect wood.
Let’s face it the last UK election was a coalition stitch-up between all the UK political parties, including the Bilderberg Brown new Labour party, when discovered that the steering wheel of the economy had already come off.
The winner of the election Stalinised Libya, restored Military dictatorship to Egypt and started a four year disintegration of Syria to bring the Muslims of that country in submission in exile in tents.
The idea that the people, who don’t get paid and have to bring up families in tents, or can’t pay the bills it costs to live here in the UK without running up huge debts, should actually take part in the selection of the bastard political class is ridiculous.
They will put who they want into power and fuck the rest of us.
Ohhh as ever..
Habbabkuk sucking the glistening testes of authority-any authority…
Slurpy slurpy Habba eh?
Regard how those testes shine and glisten in your puritanical fire-eyes oh Stasi child snitch.
Any casualties of US aerial strikes on IS will find themselves in Turkish hospitals or Tel Aviv. There is now a significant number of Uigher Muslims in their ranks who have idealistically joined the Israeli Caliphate. In hospital those casualties will be brain-washed with psychotic drugs rendering them – I choose the word carefully – into the type of desperate, hardened robots USUKIS needs to fight its wars against the former Soviet bloc and the new superpower China bloc.
Yes they train cockroaches to search for victims of earthquakes by harnessing their natural instincts. They do the same with Muslims with the help of their Political Islam pimps in the nests of spies in London and New York. Political Islam, the human-devils who sell the rest of us.
“I just mean small things like writing “Scotland” on the front of your passport, running up a Scottish flag on any old building you see standing vacant, using rather more Scots words than you would normally use, organising a “Great Scottish Bake-Off” at your next WI meeting… substituting “Scottish” for “British” wherever it is used innocuously”
How about developing an indigenous Scottish culture that has some appeal and resonance outside Scotland?
“Regard how those testes shine and glisten in your puritanical fire-eyes oh Stasi child snitch.”
Truly HST worthy prose, Jives.
I think Taibbi is cut from the mast (HST). Few journalists have had the impact of the man, an outlier and exile from the stainless steel of modern day journalists, sterile and comes in but one color.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-vampire-squid-strikes-again-the-mega-banks-most-devious-scam-yet-20140212?page=2
BTW; He recently, like Marcy Wheeler, disassociated himself from Omidyar’s First Look/Intercept adventure and is back at Rolling Stone out of the Gate/
I know you don’t want to know this…but that was Absolutely AWESOME…I would Go To The Roundhouse AGAIN..
She says You Are Love on Sunday.
I was Nearly Sober when I got in…
And Then Robert Plant Turned Up…
The old Bugger looked Great…and He can Still Sing.
Stairway to Heaven was The Tube Station…not been there before…Far better Than The Marquee, London Astoria and The Hammersmith Odeon.
In fact We Both Prefer it to The Shepherd’s Bush Empire…
Don’t Tell Anyone.
Tony & Wife
xx