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In UK, the current Parliamentary democracy has been exposed as a sham. If you can achieve a huge majority of over 80 with 43% of the votes, when over 20% of people do not even bother to vote, it means that two thirds of the population did not choose this government despite its huge parliamentary majority. The dangers of course are that this gives rise to great power for a prime minister and weakens individual MPs even within the ruling party. It has resulted in the disasters of the Boris premiership when it appeared impossible to get rid of the man, and now in the wayward ideologically driven Truss government which will be equally difficult to get rid of. This is obviously highly undemocratic, even without considering that the system of sponsorship of politicians by big money and the system of the revolving door between government and industry. And let us also not forget that the government rules by a royal prerogative of a hereditary monarch, a system inherently undemocratic. The problem is rendered impossible to oppose by the fact that we now have a pliant press and journalists that do not probe the system honestly enough.
This is not going to change anytime soon because there is no open government and no open discussions. I hasten to add that the problem is not limited to the UK Parliament but also in Scotland, where there is limited scope for argument within the dominant party.
But this self-perpetuating system for the interest of a non-representative ruling class will never change unless the whole underlying system of capitalism is challenged. Given the serious situation of climate change, our non-elected PM seems not at all concerned about energy conservation, even in the face of extreme rises in energy crisis and a possibility of energy rationing this winter. The reason is that the capitalist system is based entirely on growth with a total disregard for the finite resources. For capitalism and capitalist to continue to exploit everyone else, and the planet, growth is essential, and this translated to increasing consumption, waste generation and pollution.
SA, I am very afraid that the hollowing out of parliamentary democracy is not limited to your region.
This would lead to the logical question of, then, who’s in charge?
Since you mention the ecological crisis, I recommend Hervé Kempf’s book, How the rich are destroying the Earth. There he argues that the environmental crisis and the social crisis are two sides of the same coin, the same disaster caused by a system of power whose sole objective is to preserve the privileges of the ruling castes.
Thus, the question can be answered without resorting to conspiracy arguments…
Thanks Oscar. Who is in charge? The ruling class, consisting now of billionaires and politicians and secret services and corporations. It is an evolution of fascism whereby the nationalist element has been substituted by false ‘globalization’ a new form of imperialist colonialism. Yes, this is not a conspiracy theory but an actual openly acknowledged conspiracy.
This conspiracy extends to make sure that any opposition is neutralized so that any change of government will cause minor disruption to the system and a two-party system is only a window-dressing as these two parties are two aspects of the same neoliberal capitalism with slightly different presentations.This is so clearly demonstrated by what happened in UK between 2015 and 2019 when a really honest and socialist alternative to the revolving door system threatened the ruling class. Everything was done to undermine the possibility that Corbyn could win and expose the sham system. This series by Al Jazeera, The Labour Files, is a must for those who wish to understand how politics is run through corruption and dishonesty.
I agree with you. Now make it public without them saying you’re a crazy conspiracy theorist! I have made reference to conspiracy theories because in another thread people jumped on me calling me a conspiracy theorist for talking about a concept as sociologically serious as the power elite (I would say elites, because there are different histories of different groups with different interests and all that… it’s not that simple, obviously).
In my country, Spain, the 15-M movement, or “los indignados (the Indignants)” took place in 2011. The protests were ideologically transversal and lasted for about 4 years. From there arose a political party: “Podemos“. The deep state of Spain literally conspired to bring them down from the get-go. It recently came to light that a very left-wing presenter from here on a very left-wing television from here conspired to spread false information about Pablo Iglesias… anyway.
Now the Socialist Party governs with Podemos. The president named Pedro Baños director of National Security but various pressures overturned the decision. The Integrity Initiative was involved in the media campaign against Baños (a military man with an impressive CV who knows what things are about and speaks clearly). Apparently a congressman from your country, Chris Williamson, claimed that the Integrity Initiative was a front for the Institute for Statecraft, and informed President Sánchez of it. But hey… Pedro Sanchez is an exemplary lackey of the Transnational Capitalist Class.
I hope that these brief notes on the recent history of my country (linked in various ways to UK) will be of interest to someone.
I have found the letter to which I have alluded. Twitter says Chris Williamson’s account is an “Iran state-affiliated media.” :-O Any British to bring me up to date?
From what I have read he is an anti-Semite, he is on the side of the enemies of Liberty (the West) and his official letter exudes conspiracy overtones because he talks about a think tank with international ramifications that reach the media. Conspiranoia!
We are governed by our democratically elected leaders. Everything else is stuff for crazy conspiracy theorists.
As I said, each era has its heretics and inquisitorial processes.
You have to be very naive or very corrupt to defend that History always repeats itself in the same way.
We often look back and don’t understand how many things could have happened. It was all so obvious! Didn’t people notice anything?
If something teaches us a minimum reflection on the banality of evil is that we are all potential Eichmann.
Oscar, I apologise that I failed to understand you on the vaccines thread. I further apologise that I have been and remain short of time to rectify that error.
Don’t worry @Clark. Apologies accepted. Communication is a two-way fact —at least-, so I also made a lot of mistakes in that thread: mixing topics, explaining myself poorly… so I apologize for that too. I’m not having the best of my days lately… so…
I have read you in other posts and, do you know? From the anecdotes you’re telling here and there, I suspect we’d hit it off. 😉
If time permits I will open some other thread so we can build something interesting. A forum can be a tool for discussion but also for collaboration! We are rarely aware of the full potential of the Internet.
We continue; we resist.
Yes Oscar and Clark. Debate and exchange of ideas. I have yet to read your above posts, Oscar, but will do.
Many of the issues we discuss are interconnected and all are traceable back to the system, not to individual actors or actions. The very fact that we have a hegemonic system that is destroying the planet has to be recognised as the target of our efforts. As you see with the ex-interior minister of Iceland in the video with Craig in the main thread, this is now up to us (the general population) to do – as governments, parties and other establishment institutions will not do it for us.Chris Williamson is a left-wing politician who was a Corbynite and an ardent supporter of Palestine. He was witch-hunted out of the Labour party as one of the early victims of the manufactured anti-semitism row. As you say, he is therefore portrayed in Twitter as an anti-semite and conspiracy theory nut, despite the fact that what he says is factual.
There is an early thread by Craig on the Integrity Initiative, a well-known disinformation and propaganda outfit of British security services.
A parallel to the story you relate about left-wing Spanish presenter is echoed here also. The Grayzone has a write up on Paul Mason, a supposedly left-wing journalist also recruited by them.Here is also more on the II from 2018:
The ‘Integrity Initiative’ – A Military Intelligence Operation, Disguised As Charity, To Create The “Russian Threat” (Moon of Alabama, 15 Dec 2018)
And another one:
EXPOSED: Before Ukraine blew up Kerch Bridge, British spies plotted it, by Kit Klarenberg (The Grayzone, 10 Oct 2022)
Thanks for the links, SA.
I see that the situation in Venezuela was also present in the UK. Here in Spain many people were scandalized thinking that Podemos wanted to turn this into Venezuela.
Accusations of anti-semitism are too frequent when you want to disqualify someone. Thus we give carte blanche to the criminal State of Israel and as everywhere in the sights of the Transnationali Capitalist Class there is in all probability (thus, by probability) some jew… many solid criticisms directly in the trash. It certainly smells, stinks. In some ways the accusations of anti-semitism, in my opinion, work like the communist accusations of yesteryear; or more recently, the accusations of conspiranoia. There will certainly be legitimate accusations: there will be communist people and groups (so what?), there will be anti-jews people and groups, and there will be conspiranoid people. And most of the energy that we waste defending ourselves against such accusations (or accusing others) will be time that we will not be using to make this not just a better place, but a minimally habitable place. Certainly we don’t have time to spare, rather we lack…
Certainly the unproven and often simplistic hypotheses of reality defended by “conspiracy theorists” are a burden for individuals who try to do our best by seriously and rigorously investigating the entrails of the beast for the sake of that knowledge can be be used by activists in a transversal way. By the way, the “conspiracy theorists” are extremely useful for the System, because in addition to moving a lot of money, they hinder our investigative work and keep us entertained by attacking and defending each other…
I disagree with you a bit on one point. You speak of a hegemonic System. Okay. And you say – if I have not misunderstood – that the issues we are talking about here are issues related or linked to the System. Okay. But you refuse to talk about individual actors or actions. I think that is a mistake.
A strategic mistake, indeed. As when we speak of “The Markets” or “The Corporations” (it is true that they are “legal persons”) as being responsible for many disasters. Invisible, impersonal entities. Certainly the System is a system precisely because it shares the characteristics of one, among them, as Clark said in another thread, the interchangeability of many of its elements (although certain individuals or groups fall… they are immediately replaced). I add its great capacity for automutation to adapt to an even larger World-System. Certainly the System is very much “automatic”, it turns even existential crises into opportunities and mercilessly embraces dissidence, proactively suffocating it.
But if we take a snapshot of the System right now, or of “The Markets”, we will see individuals – with names and surname – and groups of individuals, and obscene concentrations of interrelationships of wealth and power. It’s true that that snapshot will change quickly, but it usually stays intact long enough to be extremely useful. We are talking about the order of more than a year, but probably not more than one electoral cycle; although there are dozens of groups that survive several generations (and there the key is to show the existence and influence of the group as such).
Nonviolent activist Robert Burrowes speaks more clearly than I do on this point: Why activists fail?
This is why I emphasize so much the past and present role of the global power elite (aka Transnational Capitalist Class), a role underscored by authors ranging from Wright Mills to Peter Phillips, as well as by Kees van der Pijl, William Robinson, Leslie Sklair…
I hope I have explained myself better than other times and have shed some light on the question of ‘who’s in charge?‘ if parliamentary democracy is a simple theater.
@SA, thanks again for the linked resources. I didn’t know there was so much shit in certain places… Very, very interesting… and useful.
As you may have noticed, I have avoided the topic of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Obviously I have my opinions based on the fact that not everything is a matter of opinion. I don’t feel like arguing again.
The facts are the facts. The problem is that we can order “the facts” in different ways… and the predominant way, even if it leaves out crucial causal facts or fundamental truths about the global power elite(s)… well, that ends up being the official version and eventually what we call History.
For some reason the pathetic – but no less dangerous – expression of “alternative facts” has come to mind. XD
Oscar, thanks for the link to Robert Burrowes, Why activists fail, which contains links to many further useful articles…
I would point out that although Burrowes names the transnational capitalist class and groups, his strategy is still directed against the capitalist structure rather than the class, groups and individuals, and amounts in the main to encouraging a widespread boycott of consumer products, plus a bit of self education in practical skills (which is, incidentally, the way I have preferred to live for decades). Although knowledge of the existence of global elites may help motivate such behaviour, knowledge of who the groups and individuals actually are is in no way necessary for carrying out the strategy.
I very much agree that seeing the links between various objectives eg. opposing global heating, war, exploitation of humans and degradation of the biosphere, are important for bringing seemingly diverse campaigns together. It really is all one struggle, whereas the systems of power always divide the people to rule over them.
And here lies my slight problem with concentrating upon elites. Characters such as George Soros and Bill Gates are certainly among the elites, yet Soros funds civil disobedience campaigns and Gates funds vaccine programmes. Does this mean that protest and vaccines should be automatically suspect, or even shunned? The conspiranoids certainly say so, again demonstrating their utility to the systems of power. I think what actually happens is that elites are humans like anyone else, and as men get older, their testosterone drive goes into decline. They finally start to feel their conscience about all the exploitation they indulged in, and hence try to use their wealth to make amends – they can’t take it with them when they die, after all, and the recession of their sex/competition urge brings their mortality to mind.
Oscar:
– “Certainly the unproven and often simplistic hypotheses of reality defended by “conspiracy theorists” are a burden […] the “conspiracy theorists” are extremely useful for the System…”
I very much agree with this paragraph and I am very pleased that you stated it.
SA, thanks for all the above.
SA and Oscar both, unfortunately, but joyously, I am again short of time:
OCTOBER 14-16 – Join the Weekend of Resistance
Note that XR are demanding a Citizens’ Assembly, a democratic group chosen by random selection from among the entire population. This is intended to be, and hopefully is, an antidote to the control of elite power over governmental structures.
Clark, I know very little —if anything— about civil society strategies against the capitalist structure. I was more of ideas and pen than of hands and action. Could you recommend any resources for a layman like me? Thanks in advance!
I think you have been particularly successful in your analysis of the interplay between power and human nature (physiology and awareness of one’s own mortality). The issue of testosterone is key in the psychology of power. As for how we deal with the awareness of our own mortality, I don’t know if you know the work of Ernest Becker, from which the Terror Management Theory has been developed. Here is a very interesting video that might explain how we ended up in this dead end.
As for the examples you give of Soros and Gates, the first thing to say is that not everything is black and white. The elites exist and have always existed but it does not mean that they are all psychopaths (although in that 1% there is a statistically significant prevalence compared to 99% of the population). In fact many of them are real philanthropists.
But too often philanthrocapitalism promotes patchwork or reform, never true system change (to put it mildly and not sound too revolutionary). And often those patches or reforms involve the privatization of key sectors. Which is more of the same and even more dangerous because of its global reach.
As an example, and please do not interpret this conspiratorially, the reboot of capitalism that has been promoted from Davos in recent decades and that now seems to be coming together, consists of a renewed capitalism, with wealth and power more consolidated and in fewer hands, and I suspect that entering the authoritarian phase since we are colliding with the biophysical limits of the planet… but that last one would be the subject of another thread.
We must also avoid oversimplifications such as bad Soros-made protests, bad Gates-promoted vaccines. I could say a lot about Gates, but it won’t do any good if it is played by the simplistic mind of a conspiracy theorist or by the equally simplistic perspective of an anti-conspiracy theories fanatic.
Ultimately, in my opinion, the key is common sense.
We must know who rules over the biosphere including Humanity. Power is not something ethereal.
The greatest conquests in the history of humanity have been made by exerting pressure – of various kinds – on power.
As long as we continue to conceive of power as something impersonal and ethereal, even accepting the “limited responsibility” of markets and corporations… we will be playing their game and making any kind of real (r)evolution impossible.
We must know how to name the problem and the culprits, even if it is in a historicist way, to know how to proceed.
Of course we must also avoid the oversimplification “those from above bad”, “those from below good and victims”; we have a shared responsibility for the state of the world, but it is not an equal responsibility for all.
We need to know who to hold accountable because, I think it’s obvious, elected leaders don’t look like much.
In addition to the fact that the nation-state-centric approach has long ceased to be a map to understand our shared territory.
oh! By the way, a couple more arguments to defend the approach of activism towards the elites over the approach of activism against the System.
1. Since it is possible that, as you have said, age softens the hearts of some mega-rich —the other day I read an article by Soros where he admitted that he had made his fortune thanks to capitalism but… that capitalism was the problem; I was shocked, it was from the year 1991 or so. To the extent that we can reach them, we can build bridges with true philanthropists. I see it as unlikely, but I hope something like this happens! In fact, in the book Giants (2018, pre-covidian event) by professor Phillips, includes a letter from leading academics addressed to members of the global ruling caste, appealing to their consciences…
2. Social movements of all kinds and conditions have been attacking the “System” for more than a century —or more. The world became globalized and with it power became global, and that power vacuum not occupied by public powers was occupied by the emerging Transnational Capitalist Class. The problem has never been addressed by focusing on the global power elite, while endless strategies have been tried against the System. We should at least try that strategy, I think.
My best wishes for the XR resistance, bro.
Love is our Resistance.
PS: The Transnational Institute published a monograph on Podemos. This spanish political party was organized in assembly circles in neighborhoods and cities. Then came Occupy WS and so on. We can also learn a lot from XR.
Oscar:
– “My best wishes for the XR resistance, bro. Love is our Resistance.”
Thank you Oscar, and I very much agree.
– “Could you recommend any resources for a layman like me?”
Do non-violent direct action (NVDA) training, non-violent communication training, de-escalation training and Know Your Rights training. Extinction Rebellion offer such training all over the world, and in the UK; so do related organisations such as Insulate Britain and Just Stop Oil. Extinction Rebellion also teach a discussion group format, based on Occupy’s methods, and help in formation of Affinity Groups. Maybe also learn the techniques used by Legal Observers, active listening and radically inclusive group discussion.
From your link about Podemos, I expect people involved with that political party would have links to training organisations as well. Organise, organise, organise!
Oscar October 12, 2022 at 11:28
“I disagree with you a bit on one point. You speak of a hegemonic System. Okay. And you say – if I have not misunderstood – that the issues we are talking about here are issues related or linked to the System. Okay. But you refuse to talk about individual actors or actions. I think that is a mistake.”
Oscar, there is really no disagreement; it is just a matter of interpretation. In fact, what you go on and say later explains exactly what I mean. The system is self-perpetuating and automatic and self-evolving but of course needs the elite to keep it going because it is in their interest to do so. But also, interestingly the system, because it is a system can have independent input anywhere and from anybody who has the means to do so and who understands how the system operates.
This is also why everything is interconnected and why for example neither Russia nor China, as they both operate within the system, can immediately make a major impact, although a start and a small one is being made. An integral part of this system is the dollar because whatever anyone does to make money – whether real or theoretical money – will benefit the dollar. Other aspects of this are the control of the means of communications and information. It does not matter whether these are in the hands of governments or of individuals.
The importance of the Ukraine war is that it is a chance whereby the system may be forced to change; but who knows the change may be for the worse.
Where conspiracies and conspiracy theories fit into this is important. As you have said above, there are lots of real conspiracies around: the conspiracy to defraud the masses through the economic system as exercised in the 2007 and 2008 economic crisis and the current economic crisis are actual conspiracies being enacted, as well as the war in Ukraine which has been planned probably since the end of WWII. But my concern is that focusing on everything as a conspiracy including the pandemic and trying to argue about the harm of the vaccine veers into the realms of ‘conspiracy theory’. The reason I say this is that there are two or even three components to what has happened, the origin of the virus, the actual way the pandemic was handled and the development in record time of a vaccine and its rollout, and each were real events.
I shall not discuss the origins of the virus here as there is a thread dedicated to this. The way the pandemic was handled was farcical. The UK for example had not updated its plans for dealing with pandemics, was late in starting a lockdown, introduced a rather half-hearted and poorly organized lockdown with little regard to individuals and their support, and also benefitted their cronies by contracting them to supply equipment at vast profits and outside the usual process. In this case there is clearly an out of hand disaster that caught these governments unprepared, but they then managed to benefit themselves and their cronies materially. But to argue that the virus was mild, and that lockdown is a coverup for another agenda and all those other ‘conspiracy theories’ all that is a distraction from what actually happened and what these authorities got away with through incompetence and profiteering. This CTs therefore serve those incompetents rather than hold them into account. There were no conspiracies regarding the rollout of the vaccines nor their efficacy and side effects. All these have been accurately reported in the scientific literature and to me, anyway, are convincing. But the profiteering, the vaccine nationalism and the deprivation of the third world of these essential vaccines, was obscured by those who kept making up false CTs about the dangers of the vaccine.
I admire people who are involved in direct action; it seems the only way. Sadly, I cannot do so and my only way of doing anything is to write.
SA –
“I admire people who are involved in direct action; it seems the only way. Sadly, I cannot do so and my only way of doing anything is to write.”
Direct action is what has worked most consistently throughout history – the US civil rights movement including the Freedom Riders; the Suffragettes; Gandhi and Indian independence…
These days there are many more ways to participate, many of them purely on-line which can thus be performed in complete anonymity. There is always much organisation to be done, and social media advocacy, commenting in the corporate media etc. etc.
SA, thanks again for your contributions and your insightful reflections.
Clark, thanks for the recommendations. A secret: since you said you were involved in XR I delved into that movement and… who knows. 🙂
For my part I have little more to add. Well… one last recommendation: Sex, Ecology, Spirituality by Ken Wilber.
I hope that the forum will gain new perspectives in dealing with issues in this new dark age that we are just entering, and that the general atmosphere in the forum will improve. For me it is frankly suffocating and toxic.
Perhaps the problem lies with me, and I am a “highly sensitive person” (those words that psychologists invent when we get bored). In any case I abandon at least temporarily my participation here.
If someone wishes to contact me, I give my permission to the moderators for provide my e-mail asking me previously.
Take care, guys.
César (aka Oscar)
Oscar. Your last post appears to be rather negative about the forum which you say you find oppressive. One of the things about Craig Murray’s blog is that the host is very tolerant of all ideas and understands that there are differences in opinion in some arguments but there is a general consensus as to what is wrong in the world and the capitalist imperialist hegemonist system in operation under the USG. There are arguments and discussions and not everyone agrees for example with the situation in Ukraine, and another big divide has been covid and 9/11. But it is important not to take this personally. I think you are right to be sensitive and it behooves us all to respect each other but I hope you did not find anything I wrote as offensive. If you have, we can debate that point respectfully.
The events in the last week shows that our democracy is just a veneer. We have a Tory party with a majority of 80 who have just sacked their leader who promised so much in the GE of 2019 and delivered so little and lied so much, to be replaced by an incompetent person elected by a vote of party faithfuls on the basis of tax cuts. Because the ‘markets (read organized legalized crime syndicates of traders and profiteers) did not like these (admittedly stupid) policies, the economy was destabilized and as the Tories had run out of democratic options based on their own party rules, they effectively reversed the policy by imposing a chancellor who is the least likely to be associated with the zombie one, reversing all her policy. The current incumbent PM is effectively dead but there is no way she can be deposed democratically so the ‘rules’ have to be changed. In any developing country aspiring to be a democracy the army would have by now stepped in to assure stability, but here it is left for some shady behind the scenes group of unelected grandees to carry out the coup. This is all happening without much input from parliament in a supposedly parliamentary democracy. It seems ‘the people’ or even their representatives have very little to say about who runs the country.
Meanwhile we have an energy crisis. To my knowledge this is totally manufactured. I have not seen any statistics, but I am sure that the production and usage of gas has not changed by much worldwide. There is probably much redistribution some of it probably through creative accountancy, of whether Russian gas goes to Europe or to other parts of the world not imposing sanctions on Russian gas, thereby freeing facilities elsewhere to supply Europe; it is all very mysterious. But as far as I can see there is really no shortage of gas merely an incredible hike in price with massive profiteering not just by oil producers but by the dark web of derivatives, intermediaries, spot market and other instruments of creative money making out of speculations. There has been talk of rationing in Europe, but despite the supposedly real risk to this country, little concern or preparation that shortages may occur. I strongly believe that that is due to the fact that there are no actual shortages, just a chance to make a killing. So, our government’s response to this is to transfer vast amounts of our money to the tune of 100 to 150 billion, to those robber classes and appear virtuous in doing so. The logical step was to outlaw profiteering or to remove these ill-gotten profits by a windfall tax. Oh, but that would discourage these thieves from making us pay through the nose. So, the charade goes on and like 2008 taxpayers’ money is again syphoned off to create new billionaires at the expense of the taxpayers and the whole rest of humanity.
SA, I think the gas and diesel shortages are real.
Remember that the gas shortage began before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Last winter, eleven EU consortia of manufacturing industries wrote an open letter to the EU government; they buy their energy in advance, and due to the high prices it had become more profitable to sell their pre-bought energy than to manufacture their respective products – Javier Blas, Bloomberg energy correspondent, 22 Dec 2021. I remember as country after country went into rolling blackouts; Lebanon ran out of diesel for generating electricity, Albania declared a state of emergency, China cut back manufacturing to keep domestic lights on.
There was much propaganda about Russia “refusing to sell gas to Europe”, but that was not exactly true. Russia was demanding long term contracts, but the EU was insisting that Russia trade on the volatile “spot market”. But Russia was filling domestic storage before it would sell any surplus. Russia’s supergiant gas field, opened in the soviet era, is now well into depletion and can produce at only a third of its peak rate in the late 20th century. Russia has other supergiant fields eg. Yamal, but they are in Siberia; Russia was demanding long term contracts because, to supply EU demand, it would need to build 1500km of pipeline, massive worker accommodation for sub-zero temperatures, drill more wells etc: Vitaly Yermakov, Senior Research Fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
North Sea gas peaked in 1999. The EU used to produce more gas than it consumed, but depletion has reduced the production rate to a fraction and now it’s dependent on imports. On Jan 4 2022 OPEC agreed to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day, but achieved only 90,000. US fracking sites, trumpeted to produce for forty years, have peaked and gone into decline after only a decade.
It’s not the fuel shortage that was manufactured, it was the war in Ukraine; NATO provoked Russia into the invasion in the hope of destabilising the government so it can be replaced with one that will sell Russia’s oil and gas westward rather than eastward.
Having said all that, fuel prices have risen twice as much in the UK as in the EU and this is indeed to do with opportunistic trading and greater exposure caused by brexit, but prices have risen hugely in the EU as well.
Clark
I understand and agree with what you say and that is that there is an actual shortage of production of gas and a lesser extent oil. But I still maintain that this is largely political and the and in fact the Ukraine war was a continuation and worsening of this much politicized and manufactured crisis. You yourself stated that Russia can produce more oil and gas and in fact the nearness to Europe makes Russia a logical supplier, but this means loss of control by the US empire on both leverage on Europe and increased Russian collaboration with Europe. Russia wants a stable price and also stable relationships to invest in these supplies. Also, not currently in the equation by these analysts is the fact that Iran and Venezuela oil and gas productions are not even considered in the equation because of long term sanctions. The crisis is manufactured in order to reintroduce fracking which only becomes profitable when prices are high, to increase LNG and to strengthen the US hegemony on control of energy resources and keep the artificially high value of the dollar.I know that in fact this crisis probably sits well with the aims of XR and others who wish to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, but sadly the US is not interested in Green issues, and I am not sure about the German greens in the way that a green issue has also become entangled in increased militarism, a rather contradictory stance.
I agree with SA.
Few or more years ago I was following some so-called analyst claiming that Oil should be priced $80 or fracking would go bust and debts of the fracking industry can’t go for much longer.
Cutting off the biggest supplier of energy from the biggest market is a very dangerous move. EU is now competing with Global South and China and Japan and India for LNG transported by a limited number of ships.BTW, the same analyst claimed that Russia’s budget is based on $40 Oil price.
Allegedly Russian debt is between 15‒20% of GDPSome links I’ve been pondering:
Javier Blas Retweeted
John Kemp
@JKempEnergy 10hMIDDLE DISTILLATES are the most cyclically sensitive part of the oil market:
* If there is a global economic slowdown in 2023 it will hit distillate consumption hardest
* If distillate shortages ease it must come about through a slowdown in global growthhttps://twitter.com/JKempEnergy/status/1582380313292177408/photo/1
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas 10hThe key question is whether the White House releases *more* barrels on top of those known:
Two ways for that: 1) by fast tracking into FY2023 further Congressionally mandated sales (250m barrels FY24 to FY31), 2) by declaring another emergency and drawing down SPR further
Javier Blas
@JavierBlas 11hCOLUMN: Joe Biden has a big diesel problem
The last time commercial diesel inventories were this low in mid-Oct, Harry S. Truman was US President
New York harbor spot prices are >$200 per barrel
And US diesel refining margins hit a record high today:
https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/1582363859364347904/photo/1– “If distillate shortages ease it must come about through a slowdown in global growth”
Clark
You need to fix your username. Apart from that all of what you post just confirms what I said.
“The key question is whether the White House releases *more* barrels on top of those known:”
Such a phrase means only one thing. The White House can influence the market by releasing more parcels. So, it is a political decision. And the political decision here is necessary to balance a commercial economic one which enables energy providers and traders to increase their prices at a whim by many different ways of manipulation. Otherwise, how can you convince me that a commodity that is so essential can double in price one day and then fall again, purely at the whim of the markets? It has very little to do, I am afraid, with supply and demand It has happened again and again.
The inherent basis of energy trading has now followed the model of financialized capitalism. This is the new lawless market led open highway robbery by which the so-called free world operates. Commodities now are not sold directly from producers to consumers but through many intermediaries who have to profiteer and make dividends for shareholders and owners. They are only interested in volatility where they can make a killing, they are not interested in the product itself nor the consumers. The ‘free market’ is nothing but a license for these traders to name their own prices.I am sending these links that show that this is an inherent problem that is unlikely to be solved under the current capitalist laws. Maybe one of the reasons for weakening Russia is that it attempted to change this model of market intermediaries and ask for direct stable fixed prices, which goes against the interests of the capitalist classes in Wall Street and the City of London.
The above link is ten years old but is relevant today. It shows how the regulators are unable to deal with market manipulation. The same happened in the sub-prime crisis in 2008 when the regulators, very much weakened by cuts, could not match the resources of the market manipulators who outwitted them.
This link from NASDAQ shows the principles of how things should ideally work.
https://inews.co.uk/news/business/ofgem-fines-firm-manipulating-energy-prices-334885
This link shows an actual example of market manipulation.
And Clark. The current form of capitalism is a very clear legalized conspiracy to defraud the general world population and create a superclass of oligarchs. The West had no problems when this happened in Russia in the Yeltsin years, and they welcomed all of the ill-gotten money into the Western system of financing. It is so hypocritical then of the Tories to be demonizing these same oligarchs whom they have befriended. Liz Truss gave the game away by exposing the underlying principle of the trickle-down mode of wealth creation, but she was so unsubtle that the establishment felt threatened and want to get rid of her. These things should be done quietly and not trumpeted out loud.
Moreover, the need for constant growth is a fundamental if capitalist economy and with finite resources and finite climate resilience is therefore unsustainable. But no one is looking for alternatives to capitalism in the west.
SA, I’m not sure we’re really in disagreement, because I’m not sure that cause and effect can be so clearly delineated. There really is a gas shortage because Russian companies really would have to build massive infrastructure to continue supplying increasing European demand. And European international demand really is rising, because European internal supply really is in depletion. This indeed leads to disproportionally large price swings due to the unregulated market mechanisms that you point out, and those with a neoliberal outlook are perfectly happy with this, and so far have held sufficient influence and power to prevent significant reform.
For it to be a conspiracy there would have to be an overall plan, whereas I think the lack of an overall plan is the cause. I think that traders plan to keep maximising their profits by exploiting the increasing price swings, the Russian government plans to win its war by relying on its massive internal resources, and the Biden administration plans to secure media support and its next election campaign funds by mollifying a large enough subset of commercial and financial entities.
The broader picture is that systems go into instability as they approach their limits.
I see Truss has resigned as PM, and yet the Tories are still going to elect another PM without consulting the wider electorate.
The cynic within wonders if her resignation has been timed to draw attention away from the publication of the report into child sexual abuse at the highest levels of society (and their initial unwillingness/refusal to investigate)?
– “to draw attention away from the publication of the report into child sexual abuse at the highest levels of society”
Fat Jon, !!!Link To It!!! – here, there and everywhere, and link to reports about it, and encourage others to post links. That’s how the web works; the more a matter is linked to, the more available it becomes. Place links in comments which name names and state facts so that search engines have the most informative things to index. Keep the comments solidly factual so that outrageous sensationalism cannot discredit the issue.
Here is reference to it but I haven’t read all of this report.
Inquiry’s concluding report highlights ‘devastating scale’ of child sexual abuse
