Which is the Charlatan? 255


UPDATE I calculate Tory vote share in Scotland on results so far as 26%. The BBC is proclaiming this as a triumph and ringing endorsement for Ruth Davidson, and final refutation of Independence. I calculate Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour UK wide vote share so far as 28%. This is abject failure and a total rejection of Labour, according to the BBC. How 26% is a great triumph, and 28% an abject defeat, no doubt the current GCHQ shift will explain below.

Unlike England and Wales, the Scottish elections are on the proportional STV system. With their Scottish 26%, the Tories are picking up some gains in third or fourth place in multi-member wards. Under the English FPTP system, the Tories would have gained almost nothing in Scotland.

Interestingly nowhere on the BBC news or website can I find any indication of Scottish vote share, only UK vote share. But of course if the BBC gave the Tory Scottish vote share it would rather spoil the Tory triumph narrative.

Oh, and we now know it is YouGove who are the charlatans.

ORIGINAL POST I do like simple binary possibilities, they are much less hard work than complex thought. Today we have one. By tea-time we will know which of two possibilities is correct.

Possibility a) Craig Murray is a deluded old fool who has no understanding of politics and is totally out of touch with the people of Scotland

Possibility b) YouGove are a bunch of charlatans who produce polling about Scotland deliberately designed to exaggerate the success of unionists and Tories, in order to provide pegs for the media to hang Tory propaganda and to attract the weak-minded to the “winning” position.

YouGove’s Scottish polling figures continually produce results which are to me impossible, showing Scotland is a nation enamoured of the Conservatives.

The Scottish component of Today’s YouGove opinion poll for the Times has

Scotland

SNP 40%
Conservative 37%
Labour 15%
Lib Dem 6%
Green 1%

Fortunately yesterday every local council in Scotland had an election, and we shall soon start to see results. So am I a fool or are YouGove charlatans? Will the Tories get 37%? Will the unionist parties combined get 58%?

On a technical note, yes that poll has a fairly small Scottish subsample of 209. But it is one of a series in which YouGove has consistently produced much higher figures for Tories in Scotland, and much lower figures for the SNP in Scotland, than other pollsters. For example three days ago the Scottish element of the latest Panelbase poll had the Tories on 19%.


255 thoughts on “Which is the Charlatan?

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  • Anon1

    37% is clearly absurd. We only need 29% to have you crawling around Holyrood. 🙂

  • Hmmm

    All opinion polls are absurd. The idea that people are shy tories yet will proudly boast they’ve just voted tory in an exit poll should give people some idea of how pointless they are.
    They are useful for propaganda purposes, that’s all.
    Labour have had an amazing showing so far. Despite all the lies and distortion, their remains millions of people desperate for a leader who wants a society that benefits all, not just the few.

    • Hmmm

      It’s there obviously. My fat fingers and this new phone are making me look like Abbott FFS.

    • Habbabkuk

      The French opinion polls for the first round of the Presidential were pretty accurate. weren’t they?

      • Hmmm

        No idea. No interest in France. Which companies did the polls? They need to work here…

        • Habbabkuk

          Then you should read the comments more carefully, Hmmm – not just the ones which appeal to your rather limited horizon.

          • Hmmm

            Unfortunately I have a proper job, I don’t get paid to troll here unlike your good self.

          • Habbabkuk

            You mean like the undersized tosser who led the strikes at Westminster Hospital during the winter of discontent?

          • Hmmm

            The winter of disco tent is in a Shakespeare play. I’m not that old. I’m happy to lead a strike, though?

  • Hmmm

    And we see that Craig was right on the money when it comes to racists. The ukip vote has gone back to the nasty party. Who needs ukip when the tories have all the best BNP policies?

  • fred

    I was here the day before the Independence result when Yes were going to be getting drunk to celebrate.

    I was here the day before the Brexit result when there was no way the establishment would allow Leave to win.

    i was here the day before the American election result when Hillary was going to win but not by as wide a margin as predicted.

    • craig Post author

      And you are here when the great Scottish Tory surge the pollsters predicted does not happen.

        • Habbabkuk

          My grasp and use of the English language are of course superb but I will admit I don’t know the meaning of that expression.

          Can someone explain?

          Thanks.

          • Anon1

            It means the time you start to get a bit nervous, Habbabkuk, you old fart. 🙂

            (This blog really needs some younger contributors.)

          • defo

            You missed a comma or 2 old chap 😉
            It’s an analogy for feeling uncomfortable, to the point of panic. You can guess the rest btw

    • Anon1

      “I was here the day before the Independence result when Yes were going to be getting drunk to celebrate.”

      Yes I was here as well. I remember that because there was a real “buzz” about independence, because there were “Yes” flags draped from the houses on streets that were alive with festivities and street parties, because there was a real “feeling” of something awakening, that because social media was “alive” with positivity, all that meant that “Yes” were going to win the day. You could quite literally “feel it in the air”.

      Beats any pollster. 😉

  • Aim Here

    A sample size of 209 has a margin of error of about 6-7%; even if the sampling error all went in favour of the Tories, that still would put them on 30% of the vote, which is still incredibly unlikely.

    • craig Post author

      Yes – and if you look at the YouGove series it seems like the sampling area miraculously goes all out to the Tories every time!

  • Sandra

    Isn’t it YouGov? Or maybe you’re conflating it with Michael Gove, which is understandable because as I understand it YouGov is owned by tories for tories.

    • Sharp Ears

      Give was visiting here the other day. I nearly bumped into him. A weedy looking man.

      He was on his way to the new Tory mayor’s installation. The mayor lives in his constituency of Surrey Heath. Said new mayor and his wife work for HMRC, he in the ‘compliance ‘ dept and wifey at another office. How cosy.

        • Sharp Ears

          May’s leader in the Lords was Natalie Evans, ennobled by Cameron in 2014 until Parliament pretty prorogation.

          Her husband is a SPAD for the warmongering Fallon.

          http://www.parliament.uk/biographies/lords/baroness-evans-of-bowes-park/4329

          She previously worked for Policy Exchange, an extreme right wing think tank created by the said Gove, Boles and Maude and afterwards for the New Schools Network as Director.

          ‘On 5 November 2010, as Deputy Director at Policy Exchange, she introduced Theresa May at a speech about immigration hosted by Policy Exchange.

          Evans was the Director of the New Schools Network from January 2013 until May 2015, where she had previously been its Chief Operating Officer from 2011. The New Schools Network is a registered charity, and supports groups who wish to set up free schools.

          Previously Evans was head of policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, and deputy director of the Conservative Research Department.’

          https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natalie_Evans,_Baroness_Evans_of_Bowes_Park

          A true servant of the Partei.

      • Habbabkuk

        “Gove……a weedy looking man.”
        _________________

        Forgive me for asking, but do you prefer the butch type? 🙂

  • defo

    Both those things could be true Craig 🙂
    With the Unionist (blue esp, & red varieties) parties making these elections almost exclusively about the constitutional ?, prediction is even more difficult than usual, but… 15%
    Even allowing for the brain dead, the i’m alright jack natural Tories, Orange bigots and those easily swayed by the unionist media, it would be horrific to find out that 25% of Scottish voters opted for these monsters. Numbers way in excess of that might make me consider staying in France permanently. (here on a working holiday)

  • Anon1

    Lady Nugee on the telly (that’s another 5,000 votes to the Tories) suggesting that Labour clinging on to the Socialist Republic of Doncaster is “good news”. It’s that bad for Labour.

    • Anon1

      Oh look and now we have Winnie Flabbott on Sky. Heaps more votes to the Tories.

  • Brendon

    Political opinion polls are intended to sway voters by subliminal means and by targeting only a very small number of voters they can influence the outcome of elections.

    Those that will not be influenced by the psyop have among their number;
    Craig Murray
    The “Ive always voted the way I do, my dad and his dad did too”
    The “I won’t vote for any of them they are all a bunch of dirty lying bastards that line their own pockets”
    Those on the banned list;
    ( http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/faq/voting-and-registration/who-is-eligible-to-vote-at-a-uk-general-election)
    Plus a few more.

    Those that can be influenced also come from mixed background but generally;
    “I really am too thick to understand any of this stuff but I won’t waste my hard won vote.”

    These people are the targets of bent polling outfits. They are shown who is likely to win, they think well if most people think that candidate is the best (or least worse) then they will have my support.

    In a Guardian piece:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/22/polls-best-barometer-public-opinion

    We are informed;

    “Yet polls – love them or loathe them – are here to stay and are a valuable public service. Despite often being misunderstood and misrepresented by commentators, activists, lobbyists and even the public, there is no doubt that when conducted and interpreted correctly, polls provide an essential barometer of political opinion. They may not be perfect but they are still the best way of measuring what the public thinks about a future or upcoming election at a point in time.”

    When actually the best way to measure public opinion (of those who vote) is to wait until Election Day.

    Political Opinion Polls have no useful or honest purpose, they should be banned but until they are you don’t have to look at / listen to them. If you do you are a fool but in fairness the charlatans sometimes get it right

  • Becky Cohen

    “YouGove”…? Must admit, first time I’ve heard that expression. Sounds like some kind of insult…and, let’s face it, if it’s a reference to Michael Gove it probably is;)

  • fred

    Jeesus three Conservative councillors elected in Inverness.

    They’ll be ice skating in Hell.

    • Anon1

      Ferguslie Park – the most deprived ward in Scotland – has elected a Tory councillor.

      • J Galt

        Oh come on let’s call them what they are – an Orange, Unionist councillor!

    • Node

      Fred

      The election letter I got “from” Ruth Davidson was absolutely clear – the Scottish Conservative strategy was to make this election a vote against another indy referendum. The headline was “Every vote for the Conservatives is a vote against a 2nd referendum. Therefore I expect the Tories’ share of the vote to be boosted by Unionist votes that would otherwise have gone to other parties (including yours?)

      So I expect the Tories to make some gains, but if they don’t get 50% of the votes cast, I think the SNP have the right to declare that the Tories have given them a mandate to call for indy ref 2. As a committed democrat, I’m sure you agree.

      • Node

        ^^ …. in fact, if the Tories don’t beat the SNP, they have given a mandate to indy ref 2.

  • Sharp Ears

    Craig. You are NOT an old fool.

    I have just been listening to LBC. An intelligent and very decent young woman came on from North Yorkshire. She is in her third year of mental health nurse training. In all of her six placements, she saw that there was gross understaffing (to a dangerous level for patients and staff she said) and the estate is run down to an appalling level.

    She was despairing.

    Amazing that the sheeple have voted for more food banks and potholes and NHS privatisation. The UKIPpers were Tory all along of course.

    • Habbabkuk

      I very much agree. But can the same be said of all his followers? For the record i should point out that Craig is one of the youngest contributors to the blog that bears his name.

    • Habbabkuk

      “Amazing that the sheeple have voted for more food banks and potholes and NHS privatisation.”
      ______________________

      I think the majority voted (and will vote on 8 June) for an entire programme (and ethos) rather than speciically for the things you mention.

      But your comment is interesting for another reason : it is that there appears to be a growing trend on this blog for commenters to explain Conservative election victories by referring directly or indirectly to the stupidity of the “sheeple”.

      ++ If only the mass of voters were not so stupid they would surely see the light and vote for the politicians I think are right ++

      Now that’s a very human way of thinking but it doesn’t inspire confidence in the commenters’ commitment to democracy, does it…..

      • Chris Rogers

        Habbabkuk,

        Here’s a fact, most don’t have a fucking clue what they are voting for, particularly those who still think that the MSM gives out ‘news’, rather than rightwing propaganda.

        Of course, we could make a start by teaching civics in our schools beginning at Secondary School level, which may open a few eyes to the abuses of our democracy by a very anti-democratic elite, one inspired by the blatant propaganda machine put in place in the USA under one Woodrow Wilson, who allegedly we are told, was a supposed Liberal – liberal my arse!

        • Harry Vimes

          What is revealing about this line of argument, Chris, is the selectivity.

          In no other area of human activity in which the poor decision is pointed out would you find anyone arguing this line.

          The Scottish comedian Billy Connelly relates a tale he encountered in New Zealand some years ago, which he used in a stage routine, in which local fishermen and women were hiring out their vessels to tourists to take them close to the carcass of a beached whale in shallow water being eaten by sharks. The punchline was the fact that on one boat the skipper and several others on board, who will certainly have been registered voters amongst other hats they wear every day, had to put their own lives at risk to retrieve another passenger, also likely to be a registered voter, who had clambered onto the whale carcass with a child in their charge to get a better view of the feeding frenzy.

          Point being that people individually and collectively make dumb choices all the time every day in all sorts of areas. A proportion do it more often. No one would think twice about questioning such a choice for what it is in any other circumstance. Why should politics and voting be the exception?

          Hab needs to up his game here as he is clearly struggling and out of his depth.

          • Hmmm

            The main point you’ve completely missed or deliberately overlooked is that the sheeple are behaving in a way that doesn’t benefit themselves based on lies. They are not informed correctly so therefore cannot give informed consent. If they had to pass a test based on their understanding of policies we’d have about 20% turnout. I know this because people spout nonsense they’ve read in papers on Facebook, down the pub etc.

    • IrishU

      The “Sheeple”? What is ‘amazing’ is how you are all for respect until it concerns people you disagree with ( e.g. Barak Obama, David Cameron, Theresa May) or when others diverge from your opinion on a topic ( e.g. a few million Tory voters) – once wither happens you love nothing more than some juvenile name calling.

      You claim people, sorry ‘sheeple’, voted for more food banks, potholes and privatisation, alternatively, people have taken one look at Corbyn and the rest of the Labour Party and decided that in comparison the Tories are by far the more credible governing party.

      • Alcyone

        Hurrah IrishU, very glad to see you here along with your intelligent remarks. Some of us here are perhaps susceptible to taking such crude cynicism for granted. So your observations from fresh eyes are truly welcome. Thank you, graciously.

      • Hmmm

        No, your alternative is not correct. Sheeple have voted for more shit to be poured on them, from an even greater height. I think they’ve asked for spoons so they can tuck in, too.

  • Habbabkuk

    Slightly O/T but bad news for the SNP and the independence movement :

    “The OPEC bounce has disappeared from the oil market. Oil is now down 15% in just three weeks to the lowest level since OPEC finalized a deal to slash production in November. So what gives? The epic supply glut that the OPEC deal was supposed to fix remains intact. Declining output from OPEC has been countered by resurgent US shale production.”

  • Sharp Ears

    Anon 1. Could you depart and gloat somewhere else. Sick of your stuff. We know that it’s all the fault of all those millions of foreigners.

    • Anon1

      Quite happy to stick around, thanks, and enjoy the fruits of my £3 investment. 🙂

  • Alex Westlake

    During the 2015 GE YouGov consistently showed Labour in a stronger position than the Conservatives than we saw in the actual result

  • Habbabkuk

    I’ve just realised that “Winnie Flabbott” is the vernacular for Diane Abbott.

    Now, to be fair to Ms Abbott : she is no intellectual giant but do expect – or even want – our politicians to be intellectual giants? The answer is surely “no” and, indeed, it would be difficult to find such an example of the species.

    For what it’s worth, I feel that much of Ms Abbott’s “dis-appeal” for certain segments of the commentariat is due to her accent. Now, I find that sort of accent displeasing for several reasons – as I find most Scotch accents, when I can understand them that is, displeasing – but I would be wary of linking across to claims about intelligence or its absence on that basis.

    • Sharp Ears

      ‘Scotch’ is whisky, eggs and broth.

      ‘Scottish’ is the adjective.

      An alumnus of St John’s, Oxford should know that.

    • Anon1

      “Now, to be fair to Ms Abbott : she is no intellectual giant but do expect – or even want – our politicians to be intellectual giants?”

      No. Intellectuals are the last people you want anywhere near government. But you don’t want a complete thicko like Abbott either. That’s why she has never been given a ministerial job when Labour has been in power.

      • Habbabkuk

        Anon1

        Think you’re just a little harsh on Diane Abbott but we healthy elements in society are allowed to disagree on occasion, don’t you think?

        On the subject of intellectuals in government, it is a fact not often appreciated in the UK that virtually every Greek minister of finance and economy over the past several decades has been…. a professor of economics! I’m not kidding 🙂

          • Trowbridge H. Ford

            I’m back again. as you are wrong about intellectuals. They are not some kind of wrong-headed conspiracy.

            I am an intellectual, as my work on A, V. Dicey, Henry Brougham and others, especially the institutionalized scientists, demonstrate, and had the hardest time getting it published, but I did.

            It’s a terrible myth to think that we all think, and act the same.

  • Martinned

    Normally I wouldn’t bet against you on Scottish matters, but in this case I don’t think it’s looking good. Polling has been off in recent years, but never by this much.

  • Anon1

    Labour getting beaten like a ginger stepchild.

    I hope Labour entryists like Mr GOSS will be at hand to explain why they infiltrated the Labour Party and destroyed all opposition to the Tories.

    • defo

      That’s a keeper Anon1. Real LOL. Tucked away for future use.
      Apologies to ginges

  • Anon1

    Emily Thornberry (married to Sir Christopher Nugee). Yarden Katzrin ’90, if you can get it. Should have held up well. Golan Heights is still producing earthy wines with an enjoyable hint of occupation.

    • Habbabkuk

      Talking about Israeli products reminds me of something I’ve been wanting to share with readers and commenters.

      It is that more and more non-Israeli food and drink products have, on their labels and packaging, the seal which indicates that they are Parve, ie, kosher.

      To my amazement, just the other day I noticed the indication on such wildly different products as my favorite brand of tequila (El Jimador) and a packet of Norwegian 42% bran crispbread.

      This would seem to indicate that an ever growing number of food and drinks manufacturers are keen to tap into the Israeli (and more widely, J***sh) markets. In a sense, one more nail in the coffin of the BDS movement 🙂

      • Laguerre

        Of course even more are in practice halal, cos the Muslim market is far bigger.

      • Dave Price

        Perhaps a profitable number of J***sh people prefer to buy kosher products not sourced from Israel.

        • Habbabkuk

          I doubt that many J***sh people are into BDS, Dave, but feel free to prove me wrong.

          Have you noticed, by the way, that more and more supermarkets (and not only in the UK) are stocking a wider variety of products from Israel than even 5 years ago?

          • Sharp Ears

            No. Just avocados and a few desultory herbs. Like me, I have seen people look at the label on avocados and put them back. OK?

          • Alcyone

            God, what a meaningful life you lead, watching people read avocado labels.

            I wonder if you really appreciate the life that the British state has afforded you in this rather green land, replete with a good number of fair-minded people, with a fully-functioning democracy and ample free speech?

          • Sharp Ears

            Meanwhile, in Occupied Palestine

            Canada’s Effort to suppress “Popular Protests” against Israeli Occupation
            by Yves Engler / May 5th, 2017

            The Canadian media has mostly ignored recent Palestinian efforts to non-violently disrupt a half-century old occupation. They’ve barely reported on a prisoners’ hunger strike and associated solidarity protests, let alone Canada’s effort to suppress “popular protests” in the West Bank.

            ++Around 1,000 Palestinians held in Israeli prisons have been on hunger strike since April 17. In the occupied West Bank thousands of protesters have taken to the streets and gone on strike in solidarity with the 6,500 Palestinians currently imprisoned by Israel. The issue resonates with Palestinians since Israel has arrested 40% of the West Bank’s male population — 800,000 people — since 1967.++

            /..
            http://dissidentvoice.org/2017/05/canadas-effort-to-suppress-popular-protests-against-israeli-occupation/

            Won’t take long to read.

          • Habbabkuk

            Nice one, Alycone old friend! 🙂 Isn’t the advocado-watcher the same person who recently told us she shouts at people in supermarkets who look as if they’re going to put Israeli goods into their trolley?

          • Alcyone

            Imagine somebody picked up an avocado, decided it weren’t ripe enough, put it back and the next thing you have this grinning ol’ woman coming and hugging you for it. Kiss of Death. Next time I shall put the avocado straight into my basket and run for my life!

  • Ba'al Zevul

    A quick and random eyeball of some English results so far suggests that the candidate at the top of the list – ie first in alphabetical order – has a significantly higher chance of winning. If so, the ‘fuck this for a game of soldiers’ Tendency is probably in the lead again as thousands of pissed-off punters only manage to register the first name on the list before their eyes glaze over and they remember there’s something they wanted to see on the box….

    Be interesting to see how the Macs and Mcs fare versus the Alexanders, Bowens and Colqhouns…

    • Ba'al Zevul

      (If Mr. Aaron Aardvark will please contact the Poikilotherm Party, we think there is a place for him)

  • MBC

    A low turnout was always going to favour the Cons.

    Plus the Tory trap has sprung. Starve the SNP government of resources, cut state benefits SNP cannot control, sit back and watch the voters turn against them.

    It’s the numpty factor in Scottish politics.

    Which is not dissimilar to the numpty factor in English politics.

    I.e., common factor is numpties, plus state control of media.

    • Habbabkuk

      Excuses, excuses.

      Time to man up and admit that people are beginning to see through the SNP?

        • J

          Lib Dems, Labour, and UKIP making losses. SNP and Conservatives making gains.

      • Ba'al Zevul

        No, it’s an indication of the race going to the most money, the loudest media, and the most appealing set of unfulfillable promises.

        Oh, and –

        …voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country.

        (Hermann Goering)

      • Aim Here

        This election doesn’t show anything of the sort. SNP seats are up on the previous council elections.

        What we’re seeing is Labour voters whose (British) nationalism has trumped their sense of decency defecting en masse to the Conservatives.

        • J

          “(British) nationalism has trumped their sense of decency”

          A simplistic notion which enables further divide and rule.

          • Aim Here

            So what’s your explanation for this apparent mass shift from Labour to Tories in Scotland, if this isn’t unionist tactical voting against the SNP?

          • Aim Here

            Feel free to dig down into the results as hard as you like, but you won’t find any other sensible explanation.

            The major points of political difference between Labour and the SNP are 1) the Union, and 2) right now, Scottish Labour couldn’t win in a two-way runoff against Gerry Adams on the Shankhill Road.

            And somehow, rather than stick with Labour or switch to, say, the SNP or Liberals, erstwhile Labour voters rushed off to vote for the most toxic Tory party since Thatcher (at best).

          • Alex Westlake

            “2) right now, Scottish Labour couldn’t win in a two-way runoff against Gerry Adams on the Shankhill Road.”

            Interesting analogy. I’d imagine a lot of Rangers supporters would have voted Labour in the past, how will Adams’ links to the current Labour leader play with them?

  • J

    Engineering consent through lack of opposition.

    The purpose of producing misleading polls is to confirm the impression of context and narrative which dominates the majority of mainstream media opinion across the plethora of media platforms from newspapers to smart phones. The entire context of which is favourable to ‘financialisation,’ business, banking and the incumbent government. The contextual arguments which are simple enough to hold common currency do the work of engineering consent through lack of opposition, since the context itself is comprised mostly of false targets to oppose.

    Polls are used to create acceptance of the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ while the crowd itself is today a chimera, united only by common exposure to the loudest most omnipresent disinformation. This fragmentary crowd, riven by social and economic apartheid is comprised of large sections driven to rage, apathy or acceptance by the context and the narratives available, while those deemed expendable to the model find themselves railed against as stupid, rabid, racist beasts, merely for falling prey to their own misfortune.

    A culture deprived of the basic tools of critical thought is prey to whatever context or story pervades. And the people who bring us these stories spend a lot of time effort and money to do so, and they make sure we enjoy and talk about many of the vehicles for their message: films, television, games, magazines, news, celebrity, politics, social media. Who owns the means of producing all of these? From which sections of society do they come? How diverse are they?

  • Anon1

    What next for Comical Craig? Will he call the Scots racist and thick and move to Ghana?

    • J

      SNP are making gains. Craig also correctly identified that the Tories have assimilated UKIP/BNP ideology to recapture UKIP voters. You’ve just demonstrated that not only are you below average intelligence, in addition you’re a very unpleasant person.

      • Anon1

        Craig has been saying for years that the Tories do not exist in Scotland and never will.

          • Anon1

            I don’t know why you are calling me unpleasant. Craig said that the 55% of Scots who voted against independence are evil or thick. He thinks the Tories are racist. Craig thinks most Scots are evil, racist, thick.

          • Wolsto

            He is calling you unpleasant because it is patently obvious to people like me, who read this blog and the comments regularly but seldom post, that you are a deeply unpleasant person, irrespective of your political inclinations. I’m at the right age to have been involved in online discussions since message boards, forums and blogs became a thing, and without any exaggeration you come across as one of the most unpleasant individuals I have ever had the bad luck to regularly encounter online. You are rude, crass, insulting to your host and to other commentators, boorish, and regularly hint at a more unpleasant agenda that lurks behind your political pronouncements, one where nastiness and a fear and loathing of others seems paramount.

          • Anon1

            “People like me” meaning people you don’t disagree with. Your side dishes it out just the same, but you won’t acknowledge that. You just don’t like it up you.

            Suck it up, Wolsto. I hear enough lies and slander thrown against UKIP, the Tories, and Unionists on this blog.

          • Wolsto

            Not at all. Some of my own friends, family and colleagues have wildly different political opinions to me, but we can still discuss them civilly. By “people like me” I simply meant frequent readers who seldom post, who if they are like me take less issue with your politics and more with your tone and online persona.

          • Anon1

            OK so as a “frequent reader”, where were you when one of the commenters here yesterday was advocating electoral fraud? Where are you when the numerous conspiracy theories are advanced, many of them involving unpleasant ideas about the J–s? Where have you been for the past few years when Craig has been labelling just about everyone and everything that runs counter to his political views as racist, bigoted, fascist and xenophobic? Do you do that in your family? Were you here yesterday when RoS was making obscene comments about members of the Royal Family? What do you make of the lies and slander put up against the motivation of Tories and people who vote Tory? Or people who voted for Brexit?

            Nothing. No, you just pop up now because your side is taking a thrashing.

          • Wolsto

            Well, if all that’s accurate that only makes you the worst of a bad bunch. No real accolade.

          • Harry Vimes

            Wolsto,

            It is not often one encounters someone making your case for you but Anon seems to have gone a lot further than the extra mile in this instance on your behalf. Some people just never get out of the school playground it seems, prefering to dish it out but when the same is mirrored back at things they care about or their particular crutch you get the kind of nonsense projection Anon levelled at you in this exchange.

            You called it right.

          • Hmmm

            Wolsto, you are right for taking Anon1 to task. He genuinely finds disabled people struggling amusing, for what reason I cannot imagine. He would rather the nasty party were nastier, regardless of their actual policies. But I often think of Evander Holyfield , the boxer, when I encounter his sort “people don’t bite cos they’re angry, they bite cos they’re scared”

  • Node

    The Scottish Tories made this election a vote on a 2nd independence referendum. They couldn’t have been clearer. Their local pamphlets and their national ones ignored local issues and were unequivocal :

    “Every vote for your conservative candidate will be a vote against a 2nd referendum”
    “Send a message that we don’t want a 2nd referendum”
    “Vote against a 2nd referendum”
    “Send Sturgeon a message : no Indy Ref2”
    “Say ‘No’ to a 2nd referendum”
    …. and tactical voting instruction leaflets entitled “How to vote against a 2nd referendum”

    The Tories made this a vote on a 2nd referendum – of course the they made some gains, every Unionist in Scotland voted for them.

    The important question is not “Did the Tories increase their vote?” It’s “Did Scotland vote against a 2nd referendum?” Let’s wait till all the results are in and see.

    • IrishU

      The SNP take every vote cast for them as a vote for a second independence referendum, so it makes sense for the Tories to play the same game in reverse.

      You are right to urge that we wait on the final results , and perhaps more importantly, wait for the results of the General Election. However, if the Tories do increase their vote share significantly, something which appears very likely, maybe Nicola Sturgeon et al will stop concentrating on the constitutional question and instead turn their attention to actually governing Scotland as a devolved region within the UK.

      • defo

        Baws. It was the ‘Rape clause Ruth for no 2nd ref party’ who made this LOCAL election into a constitutional issue.As they are doing for 8th June. Not a peep, nada, f all on local issues. The SNP markedly did not.
        All that Rape clause talks about is “no 2nd referendum”, it’s all they’ve got, and it seems to be having some success.
        They also steer well clear of using the C word, and everything is Ruth branded.
        Happily enough though, in the longer term that isn’t sustainable.
        Best not to comment on things where you get your info from the MSM.

    • Rob Royston

      That’s it. If the Tories do not get 50% of the vote, the people of Scotland have voted for a 2nd Referendum.

  • Sharp Ears

    It’s not even amusing to come here and see the trolls talking among themselves and polluting the comments section of this blog.

    Have they no blog of their own?

      • Harry Vimes

        That’s nothing to write home about seeing as large chunks of it will be under water in the not too distent future.

      • Ba'al Zevul

        Will the ousted kippers fit in the bin? A point so far unaddressed is, did Tory voters go to UKIP last time because Osborne and Cameron were so obviously slimeballs, and have they come back because May looks like Thatcher?

    • IrishU

      ‘Trolls’, an old favourite, and now ‘Polluting’ – you really do not like anyone dissenting from your opinion, do you?

      As has been pointed out by Craig over the years, he enjoys the debate and enjoys countering opinions contrary to his own. Perhaps if you are unable or unwilling to enter into the exchange of ideas and opinions you should go elsewhere?

  • David

    So far –

    SNP 33%
    Cons 24%

    SNP have lost 21 seats, Cons have gained 91. If it carries on in the same vain then it looks like the polling numbers wont be that far out. Does any one know what the stated error margin is on the poll ?

    Of course…. its not over till its over

    • Anon1

      Far from the polls being out, it looks like in time-honoured fashion, Craig just can’t accept that his adopted nation could vote any other way than that which he thinks they should vote.

    • craig Post author

      How innumerate can you be? YouGove shows the SNP having 107% of the Tory vote 40 -37. That apparently you think is the same as the SNP having 140% of the Tory vote – 33-24.

      • Ultraviolet

        I think too many people – in England as well – are confusing the numbers game where a party gets more or fewer seats than it did last time with the bigger picture of where parties actually are in relation to each other this time.

        Hence the Tories polling at 10% below yesterday’s opinion poll rating doesn’t merit so much as a whisper.

  • Rob Royston

    Why did they not count the votes last night? Who was looking after the ballot boxes all night?

    • Gulliver

      My understanding is that most councils did not count votes last night because, due to cuts, they cannot afford to pay staff overtime. Counting during the day does not cost them anymore.

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